Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-g7gxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-09T20:41:21.453Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

6 - Forecasting in cointegrated systems

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 November 2009

Michael Clements
Affiliation:
University of Warwick
David Hendry
Affiliation:
University of Oxford
Get access

Summary

In chapter 4, we considered forecasting in univariate processes using simple time-series models. The properties of forecasts and prediction intervals derived from such models were found to depend crucially on the time-series properties of the variables. This chapter considers forecasting with systems of integrated variables. This is a non-trivial extension of the univariate analysis of forecasting with an integrated variable because of cointegration, whereby a linear combination of individually integrated variables may be non-integrated 1(0) variable, with potentially important consequences for forecasting. We first establish a number of representations of integrated-cointegrated systems, which highlight the relevant features of variables for forecasting. We then derive expressions for the asymptotic forecast-error variances or prediction intervals for multi-step forecasts. A particular form of model mis-specification is considered, that is, the implications for forecast accuracy of not imposing the restrictions implied by cointegration on the forecasting model. Antithetic variates establish conditions for unbiased forecasts. We then address the implications for forecast accuracy of small-sample parameter estimation uncertainty in a Monte Carlo, and compare the outcomes with those obtained using control variates.

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 1998

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×