Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of figures
- List of tables
- Preface
- Common acronyms
- 1 An introduction to forecasting
- 2 First principles
- 3 Evaluating forecast accuracy
- 4 Forecasting in univariate processes
- 5 Monte Carlo techniques
- 6 Forecasting in cointegrated systems
- 7 Forecasting with large-scale macroeconometric models
- 8 A theory of intercept corrections: beyond mechanistic forecasts
- 9 Forecasting using leading indicators
- 10 Combining forecasts
- 11 Multi-step estimation
- 12 Parsimony
- 13 Testing forecast accuracy
- 14 Postscript
- Glossary
- References
- Author index
- Subject index
1 - An introduction to forecasting
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 02 November 2009
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of figures
- List of tables
- Preface
- Common acronyms
- 1 An introduction to forecasting
- 2 First principles
- 3 Evaluating forecast accuracy
- 4 Forecasting in univariate processes
- 5 Monte Carlo techniques
- 6 Forecasting in cointegrated systems
- 7 Forecasting with large-scale macroeconometric models
- 8 A theory of intercept corrections: beyond mechanistic forecasts
- 9 Forecasting using leading indicators
- 10 Combining forecasts
- 11 Multi-step estimation
- 12 Parsimony
- 13 Testing forecast accuracy
- 14 Postscript
- Glossary
- References
- Author index
- Subject index
Summary
Our objective is to develop an econometric theory applicable to macroeconomic forecasting. Such a theory must, therefore, allow for non-stationary processes which are subject to intermittent structural breaks, using models that may differ from the mechanism which generated the data, and that are selected from data evidence. In this volume, we primarily focus on the more tractable case without structural breaks, but note any important differences which result when there are breaks. We begin by setting the scene, and then we review the checkered history of our subject. We develop a framework within which to analyse economic forecasting, then consider alternative forecasting methods. The final section examines forecasting in an artificial (computer-generated) process as a precursor to the remaining analysis.
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- Forecasting Economic Time Series , pp. 1 - 32Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 1998
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