Whatever you may think about the various models of IR theory that have been developed to conceptualize security, one thing is clear: the very possibility of achieving security of any sort is highly dependent on the context in which it is pursued. Even the best-intentioned and most enlightened of policymakers must play the hand they are dealt by history. Providing a degree of security for the citizens of Singapore, for example, is a very different challenge from trying to do the same thing in Burkina Faso. History, geography and implacable biophysical realities constrain the options available to even the most capable and uncorrupted of leaders. But where leaders are incompetent, ignorant, self-serving and/or corrupt, the likelihood of even the most naturally blessed of countries achieving sustainable security outcomes becomes significantly less.

My own adopted homeland, Australia, illustrates this point rather clearly. Despite a host of natural advantages, a combination of mediocre political leadership and the geopolitical constraints that inevitably confront a ‘middle power’, the overall security context has unambiguously deteriorated. Although most analytical attention from Australia's strategic elites in this context continues to focus on traditional security threats such as the rise of China and a shifting distribution of power in the region, these are arguably not the principal threats that faces the people of Australia. On the contrary, the wildfires that attracted global attention in the summer of 2019– 20 highlighted just how vulnerable the people and economies of even the most prosperous of countries now are to changes in the natural environment. Significantly, surveys of opinion in Australia now indicate that not only has the number of people describing themselves as feeling ‘safe’ declined from over 90% to less than 50% in only ten years, but pandemics and water shortages are also now seen as more important causes of insecurity than the threat posed by foreign powers such as China.

Changing the minds of professional strategic analysts about the environment and relative importance of threats is a major challenge, not least for cultural and psychological reasons, as we shall see in the next chapter.