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4 - Deciding to Believe, 1

The Case of Climate Change

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 June 2023

Cass R. Sunstein
Affiliation:
Harvard University, Massachusetts
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Summary

People are frequently exposed to competing evidence about climate change. We examined how new information alters people’s beliefs. We find that people who doubt that man-made climate change is occurring, and who do not favor an international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, show a form of asymmetrical updating: They change their beliefs in response to unexpected good news (suggesting that average temperature rise is likely to be less than previously thought) and fail to change their beliefs in response to unexpected bad news (suggesting that average temperature rise is likely to be greater than previously thought). By contrast, people who strongly believe that man-made climate change is occurring, and who favor an international agreement, show the opposite asymmetry: They change their beliefs far more in response to unexpected bad news (suggesting that average temperature rise is likely to be greater than previously thought) than in response to unexpected good news (suggesting that average temperature rise is likely to be smaller than previously thought). The results suggest that exposure to varied scientific evidence about climate change may increase polarization within a population due to asymmetrical updating. The implications of these findings are explored for how people will update their beliefs upon receiving new evidence about climate change, and also for other beliefs.

Type
Chapter
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Decisions about Decisions
Practical Reason in Ordinary Life
, pp. 64 - 80
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2023

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  • Deciding to Believe, 1
  • Cass R. Sunstein, Harvard University, Massachusetts
  • Book: Decisions about Decisions
  • Online publication: 29 June 2023
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009400480.005
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  • Deciding to Believe, 1
  • Cass R. Sunstein, Harvard University, Massachusetts
  • Book: Decisions about Decisions
  • Online publication: 29 June 2023
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009400480.005
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Deciding to Believe, 1
  • Cass R. Sunstein, Harvard University, Massachusetts
  • Book: Decisions about Decisions
  • Online publication: 29 June 2023
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009400480.005
Available formats
×