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21 - Shrinking Lake Urmia

Causes, Future Projection and Implications

from Part III - Sustainable Water Management under Future Uncertainty

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 March 2022

Qiuhong Tang
Affiliation:
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing
Guoyong Leng
Affiliation:
Oxford University Centre for the Environment
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Summary

Lake Urmia, in the north-west of Iran, used to be the second-largest hypersaline lake around the world. Over the past few decades, unsustainable water resources planning and management as well as climate variability have led to a dramatic shrinkage of the lake. In this chapter, we describe the past and present situation of the lake through an analysis of in-situ and global datasets. Furthermore, we provide a brief review of the literature on the basin and describe the Urmia lake restoration programme (ULRP) measures taken to restore the lake. The precipitation and temperature data from 17 CORDEX models under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are used to project the climatic condition of the basin by the end of the century. The results from CORDEX model simulations under all scenarios suggest changes in total amounts of precipitation are not likely to vary significantly. Conversely, increases in the basin temperature are expected under all scenarios. Therefore, an increase in evaporation from the lake and higher water demands are expected in the future. Consequently, the management of water demand in the basin is key to avoid a potential future deterioration of the current situation.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2022

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