According to the analytical framework developed in Chapter 2, applying the “three balances” approach to explain the dynamics of China–Russia alignment requires exploring three factors for alignment formation: 1) the relative material capabilities of the great powers and the impact of a potential alliance on the balance of power within the international system; 2) the compatibility of the potential allies’ views of external threats; 3) the potential allies’ interests in revising the international status quo. To better explain the alignment trajectory over a period of time, it is also essential to understand the interrelationship between the three balances across the stages of alignment formation, identified in Chapter 3. Since the three balances are not unrelated to each other, this raises the question of whether there is a convergence or divergence between them in terms of incentivizing China–Russia alignment.

Balance of power: the shift in the distribution of capabilities and its implications

As highlighted in Chapter 2, the empirical assessment of the balance of power as a factor of alignment formation requires exploring two factors. The first is the systemic power distribution itself, and the second is whether a potential China–Russia alliance can mount a challenge to the dominant superpower significant enough to for effective balancing.