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23 - Professional Judgments and “Naturalistic Decision Making”

from PART V.A - PROFESSIONAL DOMAINS

By
Karol G. Ross ,
Jennifer L. Shafer  and
Gary Klein
Edited by
K. Anders Ericsson ,
Neil Charness ,
Paul J. Feltovich  and
Robert R. Hoffman
Karol G. Ross
Affiliation:
Klein Associates Inc
Jennifer L. Shafer
Affiliation:
Klein Associates Inc
Gary Klein
Affiliation:
Klein Associates Inc
K. Anders Ericsson
Affiliation:
Florida State University
Neil Charness
Affiliation:
Florida State University
Paul J. Feltovich
Affiliation:
University of West Florida
Robert R. Hoffman
Affiliation:
University of West Florida
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Summary

This chapter looks at expertise from the perspective of the community of practice known as Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM). We provide an overview of the emergence of NDM, the underlying theoretical orientation, and key NDM research. We discuss the impact NDM has had on one particular domain of expert judgment, military decision making. We conclude by discussing applications and continuing research issues in NDM.

Emergence of Naturalistic Decision Making

The focus of NDM research is on expert practitioners trying to figure out what to do under difficult circumstances. The need to understand decision making in the context of time pressure, uncertainty, ill-defined goals, and high personal stakes was a major impetus for the emergence of NDM. The coalescence of NDM as a field of study was marked by the publication of Decision Making in Action: Models and Methods (G. A. Klein, Orasanu, Calderwood, & Zsambok, 1993).

Zsambok (1997) described how this publication brought together the contextual factors that defined NDM:

The identification of key contextual factors that affect the way real-world decision making occurs, in contrast to their counterparts in the traditional decision research paradigm, evolved as a major contribution of the 1989 NDM conference (Orasanu & Connolly, 1993). They are: 1. Ill-structured problems (not artificial, well-structured problems). 2. Uncertain, dynamic environments (not static, simulated situations). 3. Shifting, ill-defined, or competing goals (not clear and stable goals). 4. Action/feedback loops (not one-shot decisions). 5. Time stress (as opposed to ample time for tasks). 6. High stakes (not situations devoid of true consequences for the decision maker). […]

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The Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance , pp. 403 - 420
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2006

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