Book contents
- The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations
- The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Contents
- Figures
- Tables
- Preface
- 1 Patterns and Expectations
- 2 Extrapolation and Expectations
- 3 Eliciting Expectations under Laboratory Conditions
- 4 Features of the Laboratory Data
- 5 Similarity Matching and Scaling the Experimental Data
- 6 Pattern Extrapolation and Expectations Measured by Consumer Surveys
- 7 Heterogeneity and Uncertainty of Inflation Expectations
- 8 Inflation Dynamics
- 9 Explaining the Course of Interest Rates
- 10 Generalizing the Pattern-Based Approach
- 11 A Detour to Income Expectations
- 12 The Fisher Effect in Historical Times
- 13 Expectations of High Inflation
- 14 The Fisher Effect in Asian Economies
- 15 The Fisher Effect in African Economies
- 16 Estimates of Expected Inflation for Major Economies
- 17 Estimates of Expected Real Interest Rates for Major Economies
- Epilogue
- References
- Index
2 - Extrapolation and Expectations
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 24 July 2020
- The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations
- The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Contents
- Figures
- Tables
- Preface
- 1 Patterns and Expectations
- 2 Extrapolation and Expectations
- 3 Eliciting Expectations under Laboratory Conditions
- 4 Features of the Laboratory Data
- 5 Similarity Matching and Scaling the Experimental Data
- 6 Pattern Extrapolation and Expectations Measured by Consumer Surveys
- 7 Heterogeneity and Uncertainty of Inflation Expectations
- 8 Inflation Dynamics
- 9 Explaining the Course of Interest Rates
- 10 Generalizing the Pattern-Based Approach
- 11 A Detour to Income Expectations
- 12 The Fisher Effect in Historical Times
- 13 Expectations of High Inflation
- 14 The Fisher Effect in Asian Economies
- 15 The Fisher Effect in African Economies
- 16 Estimates of Expected Inflation for Major Economies
- 17 Estimates of Expected Real Interest Rates for Major Economies
- Epilogue
- References
- Index
Summary
This book builds on a long tradition of research on the role of extrapolation in various fields. To make it clear, extrapolation means that the future course of a time series is seen as depending only on past observations of this series. It seems reasonable to begin the discussion of earlier contributions on this topic with research from the field of economics. Here we can connect with the material already discussed in Chapter 1. Clearly, Irving Fisher (1930) stands out for initiating the explicit mathematical modeling of extrapolative expectations in his work on inflation expectations. Variations of this theme were proposed in the form of adaptive and regressive expectations. While the hypothesis of adaptive expectations is a special variant of extrapolative expectations, the notion of regressive expectations brings in the element of a long-term anchor for predicted values.1 Expectations are said to be regressive when they show a tendency to revert to a fixed value. In a more general use of this term, we will speak of a regressive tendency if expectations increase in an under-proportional way in response to an increase in the underlying variable (e.g., inflation). Clearly, expectations can combine the elements of extrapolation and regressiveness, and we will pursue this topic in the chapters to come.
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- Information
- The Behavioral Economics of Inflation ExpectationsMacroeconomics Meets Psychology, pp. 16 - 21Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2020