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10 - Subjective priors

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2012

Michael A. McCarthy
Affiliation:
University of Melbourne
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Summary

Because priors can have an important influence on the posterior distributions, their construction needs to be logical and repeatable. Subjectively generated priors, when combined with new data using Bayes' rule, indicate how a person's belief in parameter values should be updated to accommodate the new data. It is not surprising that such subjective treatments of knowledge raise concerns among scientists (e.g. Dennis, 1996). Is one person's subjective judgement a particularly valid basis for making scientific inferences?

Subjective judgement is useful for science in several circumstances. These include using subjective judgement to help interpret data, understanding how data can turn differences of opinion into agreement, and using subjective judgements coherently and explicitly in cases where time, resources and data are limited. Bayesian methods in these cases provide a more transparent treatment of that subjective judgement than either pretending it does not exist or considering the judgements qualitatively. An advantage of a Bayesian approach is that the subjective judgement can be combined logically with data. However, the use of subjective judgement is not inherently Bayesian; other approaches are available (Ayyub, 2001).

The process of eliciting subjective judgements should be documented and repeatable. Individual elicitation case studies differ in how questions are asked, how differences of opinion are handled, and how elicited information is used and combined with other sources of data (Ayuub, 2001; Burgman, 2005).

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2007

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  • Subjective priors
  • Michael A. McCarthy, University of Melbourne
  • Book: Bayesian Methods for Ecology
  • Online publication: 05 June 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511802454.012
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  • Subjective priors
  • Michael A. McCarthy, University of Melbourne
  • Book: Bayesian Methods for Ecology
  • Online publication: 05 June 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511802454.012
Available formats
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Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Subjective priors
  • Michael A. McCarthy, University of Melbourne
  • Book: Bayesian Methods for Ecology
  • Online publication: 05 June 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511802454.012
Available formats
×