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2 - A taxonomy of assumptions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 October 2009

James A. Dewar
Affiliation:
RAND Corporation, California
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Summary

A primary aim of Assumption-Based Planning is to identify certain types of assumptions underlying a plan: those that are load-bearing and vulnerable. This suggests that there are different kinds of assumptions. Indeed, we have found it useful to distinguish among several different types. In addition to making clear exactly what we mean in general by assumption, it is also important to make the distinctions among the different types of assumptions clear.

Webster's New World Dictionary defines assumption as “the supposition that something is true” or “a fact or statement taken for granted.” (The 1998 version defines assumption as “an assuming that something is true.”) The assumptions we are interested in fit these definitions, but they are more restricted. We are interested only in planning assumptions. For ease of discussion, we drop the planning, but it is implicit in what we have come to mean by “assumption” in Assumption- Based Planning:

A [planning] assumption is a judgment or evaluation about some characteristic of the future that underlies the plans of an organization.

All planning requires some judgments about, or evaluations of, the future. The more uncertain the future, the more likely it is that the planner will have to make judgments or “guesstimates” to help narrow the range and number of uncertainties about the future into a manageable few before progress can be made.

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Assumption-Based Planning
A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises
, pp. 14 - 31
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2002

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  • A taxonomy of assumptions
  • James A. Dewar, RAND Corporation, California
  • Book: Assumption-Based Planning
  • Online publication: 29 October 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511606472.003
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  • A taxonomy of assumptions
  • James A. Dewar, RAND Corporation, California
  • Book: Assumption-Based Planning
  • Online publication: 29 October 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511606472.003
Available formats
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Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • A taxonomy of assumptions
  • James A. Dewar, RAND Corporation, California
  • Book: Assumption-Based Planning
  • Online publication: 29 October 2009
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511606472.003
Available formats
×