Few studies focused on the relationship between psychological measures, major depressive disorder (MDD) and repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) response. This study investigated several psychological measures as potential predictors for rTMS treatment response. Additionally, this study employed two approaches to evaluate the robustness of our findings by implementing immediate replication and full-sample exploration with strict p-thresholding.

This study is an open-label, multi-site study with a total of 196 MDD patients. The sample was subdivided in a Discovery (60% of total sample, n = 119) and Replication sample (40% of total sample, n = 77). Patients were treated with right low frequency (1 Hz) or left high frequency (10 Hz) rTMS at the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Clinical variables [Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), Neuroticism, Extraversion, Openness Five-Factor Inventory, and Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale, and BDI subscales] were obtained at baseline, post-treatment, and at follow-up. Predictors were analyzed in terms of statistical association, robustness (independent replication), as well as for their clinical relevance [positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV)].

Univariate analyses revealed that non-responders had higher baseline anhedonia scores. Anhedonia scores at baseline correlated negatively with total BDI percentage change over time. This finding was replicated. However, anhedonia scores showed to be marginally predictive of rTMS response, and neither PPV nor NPV reached the levels of clinical relevance.

This study suggests that non-responders to rTMS treatment have higher baseline anhedonia scores. However, anhedonia was only marginally predictive of rTMS response. Since all other psychological measures did not show predictive value, it is concluded that psychological measures cannot be used as clinically relevant predictors to rTMS response in MDD.

The current study explored the temporal pathways of change within two treatments, the Healthy Activity Program (HAP) for depression and the Counselling for Alcohol Problems (CAP) Program for harmful drinking.

The study took place in the context of two parallel randomized controlled trials in Goa, India. N = 50 random participants who met a priori criteria were selected from each treatment trial and examined for potential direct and mediational pathways. In HAP, we examined the predictive roles of therapy quality and patient-reported activation, assessing whether activation mediated the effects of therapy quality on depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-9) outcomes. In CAP, we examined the predictive roles of therapy quality and patient change- and counter-change-talk, assessing whether change- or counter-change-talk mediated the effects of therapy quality on daily alcohol consumption.

In HAP, therapy quality (both general and treatment-specific skills) was associated with patient activation; patient activation but not therapy quality significantly predicted depression outcomes, and patient activation mediated the effects of higher general skills on subsequent clinical outcomes [a × b = −2.555, 95% confidence interval (CI) −5.811 to −0.142]. In CAP, higher treatment-specific skills, but not general skills, were directly associated with drinking outcomes, and reduced levels of counter-change talk both independently predicted, and mediated the effects of higher general skills on, reduced alcohol consumption (a × b = −24.515, 95% CI −41.190 to −11.060). Change talk did not predict alcohol consumption and was not correlated with counter-change talk.

These findings suggest that therapy quality in early sessions operated through increased patient activation and reduced counter-change talk to reduce depression and harmful drinking respectively.

Studies investigating the underlying mechanisms of hallucinations in patients with schizophrenia suggest that an imbalance in top-down expectations v. bottom-up processing underlies these errors in perception. This study evaluates this hypothesis by testing if individuals drawn from the general population who have had auditory hallucinations (AH) have more misperceptions in auditory language perception than those who have never hallucinated.

We used an online survey to determine the presence of hallucinations. Participants filled out the Questionnaire for Psychotic Experiences and participated in an auditory verbal recognition task to assess both correct perceptions (hits) and misperceptions (false alarms). A hearing test was performed to screen for hearing problems.

A total of 5115 individuals from the general Dutch population participated in this study. Participants who reported AH in the week preceding the test had a higher false alarm rate in their auditory perception compared with those without such (recent) experiences. The more recent the AH were experienced, the more mistakes participants made. While the presence of verbal AH (AVH) was predictive for false alarm rate in auditory language perception, the presence of non-verbal or visual hallucinations were not.

The presence of AVH predicted false alarm rate in auditory language perception, whereas the presence of non-verbal auditory or visual hallucinations was not, suggesting that enhanced top-down processing does not transfer across modalities. More false alarms were observed in participants who reported more recent AVHs. This is in line with models of enhanced influence of top-down expectations in persons who hallucinate.

Aberrations in reward and penalty processing are implicated in depression and putatively reflect altered dopamine signalling. This study exploits the advantages of a placebo-controlled design to examine how a novel D2 antagonist with adjunctive antidepressant properties modifies activity in the brain's reward network in depression.

We recruited 43 medication-naïve subjects across the range of depression severity (Beck's Depression Inventory-II score range: 0–43), including healthy volunteers, as well as people meeting full-criteria for major depressive disorder. In a double-blind placebo-controlled cross-over design, all subjects received either placebo or lurasidone (20 mg) across two visits separated by 1 week. Functional magnetic resonance imaging with the Monetary Incentive Delay (MID) task assessed reward functions via neural responses during anticipation and receipt of gains and losses. Arterial spin labelling measured cerebral blood flow (CBF) at rest.

Lurasidone altered fronto-striatal activity during anticipation and outcome phases of the MID task. A significant three-way Medication-by-Depression severity-by-Outcome interaction emerged in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) after correction for multiple comparisons. Follow-up analyses revealed significantly higher ACC activation to losses in high- v. low depression participants in the placebo condition, with a normalisation by lurasidone. This effect could not be accounted for by shifts in resting CBF.

Lurasidone acutely normalises reward processing signals in individuals with depressive symptoms. Lurasidone's antidepressant effects may arise from reducing responses to penalty outcomes in individuals with depressive symptoms.

A wealth of clinical studies have identified objective biomarkers, which separate schizophrenia patients from healthy controls on a group level, but current diagnostic systems solely include clinical symptoms. In this study, we investigate if machine learning algorithms on multimodal data can serve as a framework for clinical translation.

Forty-six antipsychotic-naïve, first-episode schizophrenia patients and 58 controls underwent neurocognitive tests, electrophysiology, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Patients underwent clinical assessments before and after 6 weeks of antipsychotic monotherapy with amisulpride. Nine configurations of different supervised machine learning algorithms were applied to first estimate the unimodal diagnostic accuracy, and next to estimate the multimodal diagnostic accuracy. Finally, we explored the predictability of symptom remission.

Cognitive data significantly classified patients from controls (accuracies = 60–69%; p values = 0.0001–0.009). Accuracies of electrophysiology, structural MRI, and diffusion tensor imaging did not exceed chance level. Multimodal analyses with cognition plus any combination of one or more of the remaining three modalities did not outperform cognition alone. None of the modalities predicted symptom remission.

In this multivariate and multimodal study in antipsychotic-naïve patients, only cognition significantly discriminated patients from controls, and no modality appeared to predict short-term symptom remission. Overall, these findings add to the increasing call for cognition to be included in the definition of schizophrenia. To bring about the full potential of machine learning algorithms in first-episode, antipsychotic-naïve schizophrenia patients, careful a priori variable selection based on independent data as well as inclusion of other modalities may be required.

We assessed whether the risk of various psychotic disorders and non-psychotic bipolar disorder (including mania) varied by migrant status, a region of origin, or age-at-migration, hypothesizing that risk would only be elevated for psychotic disorders.

We established a prospective cohort of 1 796 257 Swedish residents born between 1982 and 1996, followed from their 15th birthday, or immigration to Sweden after age 15, until diagnosis, emigration, death, or end of 2011. Cox proportional hazards models were used to model hazard ratios by migration-related factors, adjusted for covariates.

All psychotic disorders were elevated among migrants and their children compared with Swedish-born individuals, including schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]migrants: 2.20, 95% CI 1.96–2.47; aHRchildren : 2.00, 95% CI 1.79–2.25), affective psychotic disorders (aHRmigrant1.42, 95% CI 1.25–1.63; aHRchildren: 1.22 95% CI 1.07–1.40), and other non-affective psychotic disorders (aHRmigrant: 1.97, 95% CI 1.81–2.14; aHRchildren: 1.68, 95% CI 1.54–1.83). For all psychotic disorders, risks were generally highest in migrants from Africa (i.e. aHRschizophrenia: 5.24, 95% CI 4.26–6.45) and elevated at most ages-of-migration. By contrast, risk of non-psychotic bipolar disorders was lower for migrants (aHR: 0.58, 95% CI 0.52–0.64) overall, and across all ages-of-migration except infancy (aHR: 1.20; 95% CI 1.01–1.42), while risk for their children was similar to the Swedish-born population (aHR: 1.00, 95% CI 0.93–1.08).

Increased risk of psychiatric disorders associated with migration and minority status may be specific to psychotic disorders, with exact risk dependent on the region of origin.

Non-motor features of Parkinson's disease (PD) and dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), such as auditory hallucinations (AH), contribute to disease burden but are not well understood.

Systematic review and random-effects meta-analyses of studies reporting AH associated with PD or DLB. Prevalence of visual hallucinations (VH) in identified studies meeting eligibility criteria were included in meta-analyses, facilitating comparison with AH. Synthesis of qualitative descriptions of AH was performed. PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus databases were searched for primary journal articles, written in English, published from 1970 to 2017. Studies reporting AH prevalence in PD or DLB were screened using PRISMA methods.

Searches identified 4542 unique studies for consideration, of which, 26 met inclusion criteria. AH pooled prevalence in PD was estimated to be 8.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.3–14.5], while in DLB was estimated to be 30.8% (±23.4 to 39.3). Verbal hallucinations, perceived as originating outside the head, were the most common form of AH. Non-verbal AH were also common while musical AH were rare. VH were more prevalent, with an estimated pooled prevalence in PD of 28.2% (±19.1 to 39.5), while in DLB they were estimated to be 61.8% (±49.1 to 73.0). Meta-regression determined that the use of validated methodologies to identify hallucinations produced higher prevalence estimates.

AH and VH present in a substantial proportion of PD and DLB cases, with VH reported more frequently in both conditions. Both AH and VH are more prevalent in DLB than PD. There is a need for standardised use of validated methods to detect and monitor hallucinations.

Individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) appear to be at increased risk of non-affective psychotic disorder (NAPD) and bipolar disorder (BD). However, most previous studies examined the co-occurrence of ASD and NAPD or BD, ignoring possible diagnostic bias and selection bias. We used longitudinal data from Dutch psychiatric case registers to assess the risk of NAPD or BD among individuals with ASD, and compared the results to those obtained for the Dutch population in earlier studies.

Individuals with ASD (n = 17 234) were followed up between 16 and 35 years of age. Kaplan–Meier estimates were used to calculate the risk of NAPD or BD. We conducted separate analyses to reduce possible bias, including an analysis among individuals diagnosed with ASD before age 16 years (n = 8337).

Of the individuals with ASD, 23.50% (95% confidence interval 21.87–25.22) were diagnosed with NAPD and 3.79% (3.06–4.69) with BD before age 35 years. The corresponding figures for the general population were 0.91% (0.63–1.28) and 0.13% (0.08–0.20). Risk estimates were substantially lower, but still higher than general population estimates, when we restricted our analyses to individuals diagnosed with ASD before age 16, with 1.87% (1.33–2.61) being diagnosed with NAPD and 0.57% (0.21–1.53) with BD before age 25 years. The corresponding figures for the general population were 0.63% (0.44–0.86) and 0.08% (0.05–0.12).

Individuals with ASD are at increased risk of NAPD or BD. This is likely not the result of diagnostic or selection bias.

Mood disorders and adiposity are major public health challenges. Few studies have investigated the bidirectional association of weight and waist circumference (WC) change with psychological distress in middle age, while taking into account the potential U-shape of the association. The aim of this study was to examine the bidirectional association between psychological distress and categorical change in objectively measured weight and WC.

We analysed repeated measures (up to 17 522 person-observations in adjusted analyses) of psychological distress, weight and WC from the Whitehall II cohort. Participants were recruited at age 35–55 and 67% male. Psychological distress was assessed using the General Health Questionnaire. We used random-effects regressions to model the association between weight and WC changes and psychological distress, with and without a 5-year lag period.

Psychological distress was associated with weight and WC gain over the subsequent 5 years but not the second 5-year period. Weight gain and loss were associated with increased odds for incident psychological distress in models with and without time-lag [odds ratio (OR) for incident psychological distress after 5-year time-lag: loss 1.20, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00–1.43; gain>5% 1.20, 95% CI 1.02–1.40]. WC changes were only associated with psychological distress in models without time-lag (OR for incident psychological distress: loss 1.29, 95% CI 1.02–1.64; gain>5% 1.33, 95% CI 1.11–1.58).

Weight gain and loss increase the odds for psychological distress compared with stable weight over subsequent 10 years. In contrast, the association between psychological distress and subsequent weight and WC changes was limited to the first 5 years of follow-up.

An increasing importance is being placed on mental health and wellbeing at individual and population levels. While there are several interventions that have been proposed to improve wellbeing, more evidence is needed to understand which aspects of wellbeing are most influential. This study aimed to identify key items that signal improvement of mental health and wellbeing.

Using network analysis, we identified the most central items in the graph network estimated from the well-established Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale (WEMWBS). Results were compared across four major UK cohorts comprising a total of 47,578 individuals: the Neuroscience in Psychiatry Network, the Scottish Schools Adolescent Lifestyle and Substance Use Survey, the Northern Ireland Health Survey, and the National Child Development Study.

Regardless of gender, the three items most central in the network were related to positive self-perception and mood: ‘I have been feeling good about myself’; ‘I have been feeling confident’; and ‘I have been feeling cheerful’. Results were consistent across all four cohorts.

Positive self-perception and positive mood are central to psychological wellbeing. Psychotherapeutic and public mental health interventions might best promote psychological wellbeing by prioritising the improvement of self-esteem, self-confidence and cheerfulness. However, empirical testing of interventions using these key targets is needed.

Depression is increasingly recognized as a chronic and relapsing disorder. However, an important minority of patients who start treatment for their major depressive episode recover to euthymia. It is clinically important to be able to predict such individuals.

The study is a secondary analysis of a recently completed pragmatic megatrial examining first- and second-line treatments for hitherto untreated episodes of non-psychotic unipolar major depression (n = 2011). Using the first half of the cohort as the derivation set, we applied multiply-imputed stepwise logistic regression with backward selection to build a prediction model to predict remission, defined as scoring 4 or less on the Patient Health Quetionnaire-9 at week 9. We used three successively richer sets of predictors at baseline only, up to week 1, and up to week 3. We examined the external validity of the derived prediction models with the second half of the cohort.

In total, 37.0% (95% confidence interval 34.8–39.1%) were in remission at week 9. Only the models using data up to week 1 or 3 showed reasonable performance. Age, education, length of episode and depression severity remained in the multivariable prediction models. In the validation set, the discrimination of the prediction model was satisfactory with the area under the curve of 0.73 (0.70–0.77) and 0.82 (0.79–0.85), while the calibration was excellent with non-significant goodness-of-fit χ2 values (p = 0.41 and p = 0.29), respectively.

Patients and clinicians can use these prediction models to estimate their predicted probability of achieving remission after acute antidepressant therapy.

Some Internet interventions are regarded as effective treatments for adult depression, but less is known about who responds to this form of treatment.

An elastic net and random forest were trained to predict depression symptoms and related disability after an 8-week course of an Internet intervention, Deprexis, involving adults (N = 283) from across the USA. Candidate predictors included psychopathology, demographics, treatment expectancies, treatment usage, and environmental context obtained from population databases. Model performance was evaluated using predictive R2$\lpar R_{{\rm pred}}^2\rpar\comma $ the expected variance explained in a new sample, estimated by 10 repetitions of 10-fold cross-validation.

An ensemble model was created by averaging the predictions of the elastic net and random forest. Model performance was compared with a benchmark linear autoregressive model that predicted each outcome using only its baseline. The ensemble predicted more variance in post-treatment depression (8.0% gain, 95% CI 0.8–15; total $R_{{\rm pred}}^2 \; $= 0.25), disability (5.0% gain, 95% CI −0.3 to 10; total $R_{{\rm pred}}^2 \; $= 0.25), and well-being (11.6% gain, 95% CI 4.9–19; total $R_{{\rm pred}}^2 \; $= 0.29) than the benchmark model. Important predictors included comorbid psychopathology, particularly total psychopathology and dysthymia, low symptom-related disability, treatment credibility, lower access to therapists, and time spent using certain Deprexis modules.

A number of variables predict symptom improvement following an Internet intervention, but each of these variables makes relatively small contributions. Machine learning ensembles may be a promising statistical approach for identifying the cumulative contribution of many weak predictors to psychosocial depression treatment response.

Despite the well-documented association between smoking and personality traits such as neuroticism and extraversion, little is known about the potential causal nature of these findings. If it were possible to unpick the association between personality and smoking, it may be possible to develop tailored smoking interventions that could lead to both improved uptake and efficacy.

Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified variants robustly associated with both smoking phenotypes and personality traits. Here we use publicly available GWAS summary statistics in addition to individual-level data from UK Biobank to investigate the link between smoking and personality. We first estimate genetic overlap between traits using LD score regression and then use bidirectional Mendelian randomisation methods to unpick the nature of this relationship.

We found clear evidence of a modest genetic correlation between smoking behaviours and both neuroticism and extraversion. We found some evidence that personality traits are causally linked to certain smoking phenotypes: among current smokers each additional neuroticism risk allele was associated with smoking an additional 0.07 cigarettes per day (95% CI 0.02–0.12, p = 0.009), and each additional extraversion effect allele was associated with an elevated odds of smoking initiation (OR 1.015, 95% CI 1.01–1.02, p = 9.6 × 10−7).

We found some evidence for specific causal pathways from personality to smoking phenotypes, and weaker evidence of an association from smoking initiation to personality. These findings could be used to inform future smoking interventions or to tailor existing schemes.

Converging lines of evidence implicate an important role for the immune system in schizophrenia. Microglia are the resident immune cells of the central nervous system and have many functions including neuroinflammation, axonal guidance and neurotrophic support. We aimed to provide a quantitative review of in vivo PET imaging studies of microglia activation in patients with schizophrenia compared with healthy controls.

Demographic, clinical and imaging measures were extracted from each study and meta-analysis was conducted using a random-effects model (Hedge's g). The difference in 18-kDa translocator protein (TSPO) binding between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls, as quantified by either binding potential (BP) or volume of distribution (VT), was used as the main outcome. Sub-analysis and sensitivity analysis were carried out to investigate the effects of genotype, ligand and illness stage.

In total, 12 studies comprising 190 patients with schizophrenia and 200 healthy controls met inclusion criteria. There was a significant elevation in tracer binding in schizophrenia patients relative to controls when BP was used as an outcome measure, (Hedge's g = 0.31; p = 0.03) but no significant differences when VT was used (Hedge's g = −0.22; p = 0.29).

In conclusion, there is evidence for moderate elevations in TSPO tracer binding in grey matter relative to other brain tissue in schizophrenia when using BP as an outcome measure, but no difference when VT is the outcome measure. We discuss the relevance of these findings as well as the methodological issues that may underlie the contrasting difference between these outcomes.

Neuropsychological investigations can help untangle the aetiological and phenomenological heterogeneity of schizophrenia but have scarcely been employed in the context of treatment-resistant (TR) schizophrenia. No population-based study has examined neuropsychological function in the first-episode of TR psychosis.

We report baseline neuropsychological findings from a longitudinal, population-based study of first-episode psychosis, which followed up cases from index admission to 10 years. At the 10-year follow up patients were classified as treatment responsive or TR after reconstructing their entire case histories. Of 145 cases with neuropsychological data at baseline, 113 were classified as treatment responsive, and 32 as TR at the 10-year follow-up.

Compared with 257 community controls, both case groups showed baseline deficits in three composite neuropsychological scores, derived from principal component analysis: verbal intelligence and fluency, visuospatial ability and executive function, and verbal memory and learning (p values⩽0.001). Compared with treatment responders, TR cases showed deficits in verbal intelligence and fluency, both in the extended psychosis sample (t = −2.32; p = 0.022) and in the schizophrenia diagnostic subgroup (t = −2.49; p = 0.017). Similar relative deficits in the TR cases emerged in sub-/sensitivity analyses excluding patients with delayed-onset treatment resistance (p values<0.01–0.001) and those born outside the UK (p values<0.05).

Verbal intelligence and fluency are impaired in patients with TR psychosis compared with those who respond to treatment. This differential is already detectable – at a group level – at the first illness episode, supporting the conceptualisation of TR psychosis as a severe, pathogenically distinct variant, embedded in aberrant neurodevelopmental processes.

The value of the nosological distinction between non-affective and affective psychosis has frequently been challenged. We aimed to investigate the transdiagnostic dimensional structure and associated characteristics of psychopathology at First Episode Psychosis (FEP). Regardless of diagnostic categories, we expected that positive symptoms occurred more frequently in ethnic minority groups and in more densely populated environments, and that negative symptoms were associated with indices of neurodevelopmental impairment.

This study included 2182 FEP individuals recruited across six countries, as part of the EUropean network of national schizophrenia networks studying Gene–Environment Interactions (EU-GEI) study. Symptom ratings were analysed using multidimensional item response modelling in Mplus to estimate five theory-based models of psychosis. We used multiple regression models to examine demographic and context factors associated with symptom dimensions.

A bifactor model, composed of one general factor and five specific dimensions of positive, negative, disorganization, manic and depressive symptoms, best-represented associations among ratings of psychotic symptoms. Positive symptoms were more common in ethnic minority groups. Urbanicity was associated with a higher score on the general factor. Men presented with more negative and less depressive symptoms than women. Early age-at-first-contact with psychiatric services was associated with higher scores on negative, disorganized, and manic symptom dimensions.

Our results suggest that the bifactor model of psychopathology holds across diagnostic categories of non-affective and affective psychosis at FEP, and demographic and context determinants map onto general and specific symptom dimensions. These findings have implications for tailoring symptom-specific treatments and inform research into the mood-psychosis spectrum.

Previous studies on reporting bias generally examined whether trials were published in stand-alone publications. In this study, we investigated whether pooled-trials publications constitute a specific form of reporting bias. We assessed whether negative trials were more likely to be exclusively published in pooled-trials publications than positive trials and examined the research questions, individual trial results, and conclusions presented in these articles.

Data from a cohort of 105 randomized controlled trials of 16 antidepressants were extracted from earlier publications and the corresponding Food and Drug Administration (FDA) reviews. A systematic literature search was conducted to identify pooled-trials publications.

We found 107 pooled-trials publications that reported results of 23 (72%) of 32 trials not published in stand-alone publications. Only two (3.8%) of 54 positive trials were published exclusively in pooled-trials publications, compared with 21 (41.1%) of 51 negative trials (p < 0.001). Thirteen (12%) of 107 publications had as primary aim to present data on the trial's primary research question (drug efficacy compared with placebo). Only four of these publications, reporting on five (22%) trials, presented individual efficacy data for the primary research question. Additionally, only five (5%) of 107 pooled-trials publications had a negative conclusion.

Compared with positive trials, negative trials of antidepressants for depression were much more likely to be reported exclusively in pooled-trials publications. Pooled-trials publications flood the evidence base with often-redundant articles that, instead of addressing the original primary research question, present (positive) results on secondary questions. Therefore, pooled-trials publications distort the apparent risk–benefit profile of antidepressants.

Various childhood social experiences have been reported to predict adult outcomes. However, it is unclear how different social contexts may influence each other's effects in the long run. This study examined the joint contribution of adolescent family and peer experiences to young adult wellbeing and functioning.

Participants came from the TRacking Adolescents’ Individual Lives Survey (TRAILS) study (n = 2230). We measured family and peer relations at ages 11 and 16 (i.e. family functioning, perceived parenting, peer status, peer relationship quality), and functioning as the combination of subjective wellbeing, physical and mental health, and socio-academic functioning at age 22. Using structural equation modelling, overall functioning was indicated by two latent variables for positive and negative functioning. Positive, negative and overall functioning at young adulthood were regressed on adolescent family experiences, peer experiences and interactions between the two.

Family experiences during early and mid-adolescence were most predictive for later functioning; peer experiences did not independently predict functioning. Interactions between family and peer experiences showed that both protective and risk factors can have context-dependent effects, being exacerbated or overshadowed by negative experiences or buffered by positive experiences in other contexts. Overall the effect sizes were modest at best.

Adolescent family relations as well as the interplay with peer experiences predict young adult functioning. This emphasizes the importance of considering the relative effects of one context in relation to the other.