In this paper, we develop the lower–upper-bound approximation in the space of Laplace transforms for pricing American options. We construct tight lower and upper bounds for the price of a finite-maturity American option when the underlying stock is modeled by a large class of stochastic processes, e.g. a time-homogeneous diffusion process and a jump diffusion process. The novelty of the method is to first take the Laplace transform of the price of the corresponding “capped (barrier) option” with respect to the time to maturity, and then carry out optimization procedures in the Laplace space. Finally, we numerically invert the Laplace transforms to obtain the lower bound of the price of the American option and further utilize the early exercise premium representation in the Laplace space to obtain the upper bound. Numerical examples are conducted to compare the method with a variety of existing methods in the literature as benchmark to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency.

We propose a generalized extreme shock model with a possibly increasing failure threshold. Although standard models assume that the crucial threshold for the system might only decrease over time, because of weakening shocks and obsolescence, we assume that, especially at the beginning of the system's life, some strengthening shocks might increase the system tolerance to large shock. This is, for example, the case of turbines’ running-in in the field of engineering. On the basis of parametric assumptions, we provide theoretical results and derive some exact and asymptotic univariate and multivariate distributions for the model. In the last part of the article we show how to link this new model to some nonparametric approaches proposed in the literature.

In this article, we analyze the large deviations bounds for the nonergodic face-homogeneous random walk in the positive quadrant. Under some condition the value of the local rate function for the path identically equal to zero is found, and an explicit expression is derived for it. This makes the computation of its value possible for specific stochastic networks. Some numerical examples are given.

As more people move back into densely populated cities, bike sharing is emerging as an important mode of urban mobility. In a typical bike-sharing system (BSS), riders arrive at a station and take a bike if it is available. After retrieving a bike, they ride it for a while, then return it to a station near their final destinations. Since space is limited in cities, each station has a finite capacity of docks, which cannot hold more bikes than its capacity. In this paper, we study BSSs with stations having a finite capacity. By an appropriate scaling of our stochastic model, we prove a mean-field limit and a central limit theorem for an empirical process of the number of stations with k bikes. The mean-field limit and the central limit theorem provide insight on the mean, variance, and sample path dynamics of large-scale BSSs. We also leverage our results to estimate confidence intervals for various performance measures such as the proportion of empty stations, the proportion of full stations, and the number of bikes in circulation. These performance measures have the potential to inform the operations and design of future BSSs.

Maymin proved that for binary systems, the path-cut lower bound is sharper than the minimax lower bound for highly reliable components, which was originally conjectured by Barlow and Proschan. In this note, an example is constructed to illustrate that this, in general, is not the case for multistate systems. However, an affirmative result is obtained under mild conditions we imposed. Examples are given to illustrate the applications of our results.

We give a new characterization of the ruin probability of the classical insurance risk model and use it to obtain bounds on and a computational approach for evaluating this probability.

In this paper, we consider a d-node GI|GI|1 tandem queue with i.i.d. inter-arrival process and service processes that are independent of each other. Our main interest is to estimate the probability to reach a high level N in a busy cycle of the system using simulation. As crude simulation does not give a sufficient precision in reasonable time, we use importance sampling. We introduce a method to find a state-independent change of measure and we show that this is equivalent to a change of measure that was earlier, but implicitly, described by Parekh and Walrand [8]. We also show that this change of measure is the only exponential state-independent change of measure that may result in an asymptotically efficient estimator. Lastly, we provide necessary conditions for this state-independent change of measure to give an asymptotically efficient estimator.

Motivated by applications in areas such as cloud computing and information technology services, we consider GI/GI/1 queueing systems under workloads (arrival and service processes) that vary according to one discrete time scale and under controls (server capacity) that vary according to another discrete time scale. We take a stochastic optimal control approach and formulate the corresponding optimal dynamic control problem as a stochastic dynamic program. Under general assumptions for the queueing system, we derive structural properties for the optimal dynamic control policy, establishing that the optimal policy can be obtained through a sequence of convex programs. We also derive fluid and diffusion approximations for the problem and propose analytical and computational approaches in these settings. Computational experiments demonstrate the benefits of our theoretical results over standard heuristics.

In light of recent empirical research on jump activity, this article study the calibration of a new class of stochastic volatility models that include both jumps in return and volatility. Specifically, we consider correlated jump sizes and both contemporaneous and independent arrival of jumps in return and volatility. Based on the specifications of this model, we derive a closed-form relationship between the VIX index and latent volatility. Also, we propose a closed-form logarithmic likelihood formula by using the link to the VIX index. By estimating alternative models, we find that the general counting processes setting lead to better capturing of return jump behaviors. That is, the part where the return and volatility jump simultaneously and the part that jump independently can both be captured. In addition, the size of the jumps in volatility is, on average, positive for both contemporaneous and independent arrivals. However, contemporaneous jumps in the return are negative, but independent return jumps are positive. The sub-period analysis further supports above insight, and we find that the jumps in return and volatility increased significantly during the two recent economic crises.

We study the degree profile of random hierarchical lattice networks. At every step, each edge is either serialized (with probability p) or parallelized (with probability 1−p). We establish an asymptotic Gaussian law for the number of nodes of outdegree 1, and show how to extend the derivations to encompass asymptotic limit laws for higher outdegrees. The asymptotic joint distribution of the number of nodes of outdegrees 1 and 2 is shown to be bivariate normal. No phase transition with p is detected in these asymptotic laws.

For the limit laws, we use ideas from the contraction method. The recursive equations which we get involve coefficients and toll terms depending on the recursion variable and thus are not in the standard form of the contraction method. Yet, an adaptation of the contraction method goes through, showing that the method has promise for a wider range of random structures and algorithms.

This paper proposes a novel stochastic volatility model with a flexible jump structure. This model allows both contemporaneous and independent arrival of jumps in return and volatility. Moreover, time-varying jump intensities are used to capture jump clustering. In the proposed framework, we provide a semi-analytical solution for the pricing problem of VIX futures and options. Through numerical experiments, we verify the accuracy of our pricing formula and explore the impact of the jump structure on the pricing of VIX derivatives. We find that the correct identification of the market jump structure is crucial for pricing VIX derivatives, and misspecified model setting can yield large errors in pricing.

The line reversibility property of a two-stage multiserver system with manufacturing blocking has previously been established using a duality argument between the blocked state and the idle state. In this paper, we provide counterexamples that show this argument does not apply to systems with more than two stages. A focus of this paper is to provide a new proof for the result. Our argument is based on the duality between the service initiation and the service completion events.

This paper extends product form results for queueing networks with signals to allow history-dependent routing. The signals in these models carry information to nodes and induce multiple customers to move simultaneously within the network. Two models are studied in this paper. In the first one we assume that routing probabilities of a departing customer from a given class of nodes depend on the amount of service just received by the customer and whether its departure is the result of an actual service completion or the result of an arriving signal. In the second model we assume that the routing probabilities of a customer depend on the number of times this customer's service has been interrupted by signals in the past as well as the cause of its departure. We show that both models possess simple product form solutions. These results provide a new dimension in modeling and analyzing practical systems.

In this paper, we study the problem of dynamic allocation of a single server to parallel queues with finite-capacity buffers. The arrival processes are mutually independent, equal rate Poisson processes, and the service times are independent and identically distributed random variables with an arbitrary distribution. We are interested in characterizing the allocation policy that stochastically minimizes the number of customers lost due to buffer overflows. Using a coupling argument, we establish the optimality of the Fewest-Empty-Spaces policy, which allocates the server to the queue with the fewest empty buffer spaces, within the class of nonpreemptive and nonidling policies. The result extends to the class of preemptive policies, if the service times are exponentially distributed. We also briefly discuss the allocation problem under more general statistical assumptions on the arrival processes.

The manipulations and basic results of stochastic decision theory are introduced. The manipulations of idempotence, transposition, and repetition, introduced for deterministic decision trees, can be used to manipulate stochastic trees. However, there are two major differences. First, in order to obtain a complete set of manipulations it is necessary to introduce an additional rule called indifference. Second, these identities must be treated as rules of inference. Not all the rules can be soundly applied in both directions; in particular, idempotence is a one-way rule.

A manipulation of a stochastic decision tree not only alters the structure of the tree, but also the probability distributions associated with the tree. This allows probability calculation to be viewed as structural manipulation. In particular, a retrieval corresponds to a conditional probability calculation. The algorithm for doing this calculation has, therefore, many applications. For example, the solution to the classical state-estimation problem and the retrieval of information from probabilistic or uncertain knowledge bases may both be viewed as an application of this algorithm.

The main result of this paper is that these manipulations are complete and sound. In order to prove this result, it is necessary to have a semantic setting for these theories. The setting chosen is the category of description spaces which is a generalization of the category of bounded measure spaces with maps which do not increase measure. The proof of this result exploits the retrieval properties of stochastic terms and its relationship to conditional probability calculations in the models.

We consider preemptive and nonpreemptive scheduling of partially ordered tasks on parallel processors, where the precedence relations have an intervalorder, an in-forest, or a uniform out-forest structure. Processing times of tasks are random variables with an increasing in likelihood ratio distribution in the nonpreemptive case and an exponential distribution in the preemptive case. We consider a general cost that is a function of time and of the uncompleted tasks and show that the most successors (MS) policy stochastically minimizes the cost function when it satisfies certain agreeability conditions. A consequence is that the MS policy stochastically minimizes makespan, weighted flowtime, and the weighted number of late jobs.

We give an extremely simple argument to prove that in infinite user-commurlication channels, under the Aloha protocol, the number of successful transmissions is finite with probability 1. The same result is then shown to hold for those back-off protocols whose transmission probabilities are bounded away from 0.

We compute the first two moments and give a recursive formula for the generating function of the first k-record index for a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables that take on a finite set of possible values. When the random variables have an infinite support, we bound the distribution of the index of the first k-record and show that its mean is infinite.

We consider a renewal reward process in continuous time. The supremum average reward, γ* for this process can be characterised as the unique root of a certain function. We show how one can apply the Newton–Raphson algorithm to obtain successive approximations to γ*, and show that the successive approximations so obtained are the same as those obtained by using the policy improvement technique.

We analyze the asymptotic number of items chosen in a selection procedure. The procedure selects items whose rank among all previous applicants is within the best 100p percent of the number of previously selected items. We use analytic methods to obtain a succinct formula for the first-order asymptotic growth of the expected number of items chosen by the procedure.