The same applies when a success occurs in large fields; in this case, p1 = 0. If at least one success occurs in each oilfield after a certain number of wells are drilled, then we reach a position where the number of undiscovered fields is represented by simple Euler distributions, and the results of Section 4.1 showed that the optimal rule is a one-step look-ahead rule.

Probabilistic influence diagrams are a useful stochastic modeling tool. To calculate probabilities of interest relative to a probabilistic influence diagram efficiently, it will be helpful for us to use an associated decomposable-directed graph. We first explore and discuss some graph-theoretic and conditional independence properties of decomposable probabilistic influence diagrams. These properties are helpful in providing an efficient algorithm for obtaining a posterior decomposable probabilistic influence diagram given the state of one or more observed nodes. The connection between Shachter's “sequential creation of conditionally barren nodes” concept and Lauritzen and Spiegeihalter's “moralization and triangulation” algorithm for calculating probabilities relative to a probabilistic influence diagram is made explicit. We also discuss how to use wisely the concepts of “sequential creation of conditionally barren nodes” and “merging nodes” together with the graph-theoretic properties of decomposable directed graphs to compute probabilities relative to probabilistic influence diagrams.

Two multivariate aging classes described by Johnson and Kotz [7] and Zahedi [11] and known as vector multivariate increasing/decreasing hazard rate (VMIHR/VMDHR) class and decreasing/increasing multivariate mean remaining life of type 2 (DMMRL/IMMRL-2) class, respectively, as well as componentwise NBUE/NWUE class, are considered. The chain of implications between these classes and some characterizing properties of them with regard to the equilibrium distribution corresponding to a multivariate distribution function and concave (convex) transformation of the residual random vector have been established. The “closure under mixture’ property of the first two classes are also studied.

Under some mild conditions, the strong consistency and complete consistency of the LS estimators in the errors-in-variable regression model with weakly negative dependent errors are obtained, which generalize the corresponding ones for negatively associated random variables. In addition, the simulation study shows that the biases of our method are small, and our method performs well.

“Guess Who?” is a popular two player game where players ask “Yes”/“No” questions to search for their opponent's secret identity from a pool of possible candidates. This is modeled as a simple stochastic game. Using this model, the optimal strategy is explicitly found. Contrary to popular belief, performing a binary search is not always optimal. Instead, the optimal strategy for the player who trails is to make certain bold plays in an attempt catch up. This is discovered by first analyzing a continuous version of the game where players play indefinitely and the winner is never decided after finitely many rounds.

Maymin proved that for binary systems, the path-cut lower bound is sharper than the minimax lower bound for highly reliable components, which was originally conjectured by Barlow and Proschan. In this note, an example is constructed to illustrate that this, in general, is not the case for multistate systems. However, an affirmative result is obtained under mild conditions we imposed. Examples are given to illustrate the applications of our results.

We consider a communication network that can support both wideband video calls and narrowband data traffic. First we consider a single link and prove a weak convergence result to justify a piecewise-deterministic Markov process approximation to the system. We then generalize this approximation to allow priorities and more than one link. This second approximation is a generalization of the Erlang fixed-point approximation for loss networks and is justified via a diverse routing limit theorem.

We introduce the concept of “strong interchangeability” of random vectors. Strongly interchangeable random vectors arise naturally in packetized voice channels, M/G/1 queues, symmetric queueing networks, and other standard symmetric distributions. We study some properties of strongly interchangeable random vectors. We show that if (X1, …, XN) is a strongly interchangeable random vector, then even though there is no Markov property, taboo probabilities can be used to compute the joint distribution of ŽN = min1≤n≤N σnk=IXk and ZN = max1≤n≤N σnk=1Xk. For a special instance of this problem that arises in packetized voice communication, it is shown that the resulting algorithm essentially has a complexity of order N4. When ( σnk=1Xk, n = 1,… N) is an associated random vector bound for the joint distribution of ŽN and ZN are obtained and applied to the packetized voice communication problem.

Gauss-Seidel is a general method for solving a system of equations (possibly nonlinear). It makes repeated sweeps through the variables; within a sweep as each new estimate for a variable is computed, the current estimate for that variable is replaced with the new estimate immediately, instead of on completion of the sweep. The idea is to use new data as soon as it is computed. Gauss- Seidel is often efficient for computing the invariant measure of a Markov chain (especially if the transition matrix is sparse), and for computing the value function in optimal control problems. In many applications the computation can be significantly improved by appropriately ordering the variables within each sweep. A simple heuristic is presented here for computing an ordering that quickens convergence. In parallel processing, several variables must be computed simultaneously, which appears to work against Gauss-Seidel. Simple asynchronous parallel Gauss-Seidel methods are presented here. Experiments indicate that the methods retain the benefit of a good ordering, while further speeding up convergence by a factor of P if P processors participate.

In this paper, we focus on the optimal stopping problem. A probabilistic interpretation of the Gauss-Seidel (and the Jacobi) method for computing the value function is given, which motivates our ordering heuristic. However, the ordering heuristic and parallel processing methods apply in a broader context, in particular, to the important problem of computing the invariant measure of a Markov chain.

We study the degree profile of random hierarchical lattice networks. At every step, each edge is either serialized (with probability p) or parallelized (with probability 1−p). We establish an asymptotic Gaussian law for the number of nodes of outdegree 1, and show how to extend the derivations to encompass asymptotic limit laws for higher outdegrees. The asymptotic joint distribution of the number of nodes of outdegrees 1 and 2 is shown to be bivariate normal. No phase transition with p is detected in these asymptotic laws.

For the limit laws, we use ideas from the contraction method. The recursive equations which we get involve coefficients and toll terms depending on the recursion variable and thus are not in the standard form of the contraction method. Yet, an adaptation of the contraction method goes through, showing that the method has promise for a wider range of random structures and algorithms.

This article is concerned with the problem of controlling a simple immigration process, which represents a pest population, by the introduction of a predator. It is assumed that the cost rate caused by the pests is an increasing function of their population size and that the cost rate of the controlling action is constant. The existence of a control-limit policy that minimizes the expected long-run average cost per unit time is established. The proof is based on the variation of a fictitious parameter over the entire real line.

Pareto distribution is an important distribution in extreme value theory. In this paper, we consider parallel systems with Pareto components and study the effect of heterogeneity on skewness of such systems. It is shown that, when the lifetimes of components have different shape parameters, the parallel system with heterogeneous Pareto component lifetimes is more skewed than the system with independent and identically distributed Pareto components. However, for the case when the lifetimes of components have different scale parameters, the result gets reversed in the sense of star ordering. We also establish the relation between star ordering and dispersive ordering by extending the result of Deshpande and Kochar [(1983). Dispersive ordering is the same as tail ordering. Advances in Applied Probability 15(3): 686–687] from support $(0, \infty )$ to general supports $(a, \infty )$, $a > 0$. As a consequence, we obtain some new results on dispersion of order statistics from heterogeneous Pareto samples with respect to dispersive ordering.

This paper investigates the effects of measurement and parameter errors on the calculation of power transfer distribution factors (PTDFs). Calculation of PTDFs depends mainly on two factors: the operating conditions and the network topology. Both of these factors change in real time and are monitored through the use of a state estimator. The role of the state estimator in providing not only the state information but also the real-time network model is shown to influence power market operations via PTDF-based decisions such as congestion management and pricing. The IEEE 14 bus test system is used for the illustration of these influences.

In this article, we analyze the large deviations bounds for the nonergodic face-homogeneous random walk in the positive quadrant. Under some condition the value of the local rate function for the path identically equal to zero is found, and an explicit expression is derived for it. This makes the computation of its value possible for specific stochastic networks. Some numerical examples are given.

We give a new characterization of the ruin probability of the classical insurance risk model and use it to obtain bounds on and a computational approach for evaluating this probability.

Capital allocation is of central importance in portfolio management and risk-based performance measurement. Capital allocations for univariate risk measures have been extensively studied in the finance literature. In contrast to this situation, few papers dealt with capital allocations for multivariate risk measures. In this paper, we propose an axiom system for capital allocation with multivariate risk measures. We first recall the class of the positively homogeneous and subadditive multivariate risk measures, and provide the corresponding representation results. Then it is shown that for a given positively homogeneous and subadditive multivariate risk measure, there exists a capital allocation principle. Furthermore, the uniqueness of the capital allocation principe is characterized. Finally, examples are also given to derive the explicit capital allocation principles for the multivariate risk measures based on mean and standard deviation, including the multivariate mean-standard-deviation risk measures.

In this paper, we consider a d-node GI|GI|1 tandem queue with i.i.d. inter-arrival process and service processes that are independent of each other. Our main interest is to estimate the probability to reach a high level N in a busy cycle of the system using simulation. As crude simulation does not give a sufficient precision in reasonable time, we use importance sampling. We introduce a method to find a state-independent change of measure and we show that this is equivalent to a change of measure that was earlier, but implicitly, described by Parekh and Walrand [8]. We also show that this change of measure is the only exponential state-independent change of measure that may result in an asymptotically efficient estimator. Lastly, we provide necessary conditions for this state-independent change of measure to give an asymptotically efficient estimator.

Extremal arrival processes, in the sense of increasing convex order of waiting time of queueing systems, are investigated. Two types of extremal processes are proposed: one in the class of processes that have identical marginal distributions and the other in the class of bounded stochastic processes that have the same mean and covariance structure. The worst performance with regard to waiting time in the sense of increasing convex order is guaranteed when these extremal processes are fed into a first in-first out single-server queue.

This paper introduces two statistics that assess whether (or not) a sequence sampled from a stationary time-homogeneous Markov chain on a finite state space is reversible. The test statistics are based on observed deviations of transition sample counts between each pair of states in the chain. First, the joint asymptotic normality of these sample counts is established. This result is then used to construct two chi-squared-based tests for reversibility. Simulations assess the power and type one error of the proposed tests.

We propose a generalized extreme shock model with a possibly increasing failure threshold. Although standard models assume that the crucial threshold for the system might only decrease over time, because of weakening shocks and obsolescence, we assume that, especially at the beginning of the system's life, some strengthening shocks might increase the system tolerance to large shock. This is, for example, the case of turbines’ running-in in the field of engineering. On the basis of parametric assumptions, we provide theoretical results and derive some exact and asymptotic univariate and multivariate distributions for the model. In the last part of the article we show how to link this new model to some nonparametric approaches proposed in the literature.