The 2001 and 2003 tax cuts represent dramatic legislative
breakthroughs. Taken together, they have fundamentally reshaped the
nation's fiscal landscape. In view of the voluminous and largely
sanguine literature on American democratic responsiveness, one might
assume that this policy turnaround was broadly consistent with
voters' priorities. In this article, we show that—in
contradiction to this prevailing view, as well as the claims of Larry
Bartels in this issue—the substance of the tax cuts was in fact
sharply at odds with public preferences. Tax policy was pulled radically
off center, we argue, by the intersection of two forces: (1) the
increasing incentives of political elites to cater to their partisan and
ideological “base”; and (2) the increasing capacity of
politicians who abandon the middle to escape political retribution. In
accounting for these centrifugal forces, we stress, as others have,
increasing partisanship and polarization, as well as the growing
sophistication of political message-control. Yet we also emphasize a
pivotal factor that is too often overlooked: the deliberate crafting of
policy to distort public perceptions, set the future political agenda, and
minimize the likelihood of voter backlash. By showing how politicians can
engineer policy shifts that are at odds with majority public preferences,
we hope to provoke a broader discussion of voters' capacity to
protect their interests in America's representative democracy.Jacob S. Hacker is Peter Strauss Family
Assistant Professor of Political Science at Yale University
([email protected]) and author of The Divided Welfare State: The
Battle over Public and Private Social Benefits in the United States
and The Road to Nowhere: The Genesis of President Clinton's
Plan for Health Security. Paul Pierson is Professor of Political
Science at the University of California, Berkeley ([email protected]),
where he holds the Avice Saint Chair in Public Policy. He is the author
of Politics in Time: History, Institutions and Social Analysis
and Dismantling the Welfare State? Reagan, Thatcher, and the
Politics of Retrenchment. The authors are grateful for the comments
and suggestions of Akhil Amar, Daniel Carpenter, Peter Hall, Michael
Heany, Jennifer Hochschild, Richard Kogan, Theodore Marmor, Andrew Martin,
David Mayhew, Nolan McCarty, Bruce Nesmith, Peter Orszag, Eric Schickler,
Theda Skocpol, Richard Vallely, Robert van Houweling, Joseph White, and
three anonymous reviewers, as well as participants in a workshop at
Harvard University sponsored by the Russell Sage Foundation. Rachel
Goodman, Pearline Kyi, Joanne Lim, and Alan Schoenfeld provided able
research assistance. A previous version of this paper was presented at the
2003 annual meeting of the American Political Science
Association.