We show that the similarity of a firm’s technological expertise with that of other firms affects managerial labor market outcomes. Using each firm’s patent portfolio to estimate its technological expertise, we find that its similarity in technological expertise with other firms is strongly related to the benchmark group used for CEO compensation and job transitions. Furthermore, we show that a firm’s CEO pay is positively associated with the CEO compensation levels of technologically similar firms. Our results thus demonstrate the crucial role of technological similarity in determining the value of outside options and the boundaries of the managerial labor market.

This paper analyzes the effect of limited information and estimation risk on optimal portfolio choice when the joint probability distribution of security returns is multivariate normal and the underlying parameters (means and variance-covariance matrix) are unknown. We first consider the case of limited, but sufficient information (the number of observations per security exceeds the number of securities or the prior distribution of the underlying parameters is “sufficiently” informative). We show that for a general family of conjugate priors, the admissible set of portfolios, taking estimation risk into account, may be obtained by the traditional mean-variance analysis. As a result of estimation risk the optimal portfolio choice differs from that obtained by traditional analysis.

In [1, p. 999] I wrongly stated that “the solution locus generated by the chance-constrained problem is efficient (for the class of utility function implied by the expected wealth-probability of ruin criterion) if the assets follow a multinomial distribution with means above the survival level.” In support of this statement footnote 6 of [1] attempted to establish the quasiconcavity of the expected utility function

in the (μ, σ) plane, where F is the normal distribution, z = (s-μ)/σ < 0, s is the survival level, μ is the mean of the portfolio, σ is the standard deviation, and c is a positive constant. The condition

was claimed to hold for any two assets (μ1., σ1) and (μ2., σ2) on any given indifference curve of (1), where zi. = (s-μi.)/σi., i = 1,2, and zγ = (s−μγ)/σγ corresponds to the convex combination μγ = γμ1 + (1−γ) μ2, σγ = γσ1+ (1−γ) σ2, in the (μ, σ) plane. (Note that this is not the same as asserting that F(z) is a convex function of μ and σ, which it is not as an examination of its Hessian determinant would readily show.)

Since we now have a data base approaching five years of more or less fluctuating exchange rates, there undoubtedly are numerous empirical studies under way comparing the movements of exchange rates with each other and with all sorts of other economic variables. A rather subtle problem with such activities is that the analysis is sensitive to which currency of an exchange rate one chooses to make the numeraire. Specifically, a time series of, say, dollars per pound sterling is not the same thing mathematically as a time series of pounds per dollar although the information content is the same. In particular it can be shown that

In a recent article, Modigliani and Pogue [2] raised the issue of “leverage bias” in portfolio performance measures. Specifically, they contended that the value of the Jensen's alpha (α) could be affected by borrowing or lending at the risk-free rate, while the Treynor index (TI) does not suffer from this shortcoming. They illustrated this effect through the use of a graphical example similar to the one in Exhibit I where A and B are two unlevered portfolios with the same α's but different TI's. Modigliani and Pogue argued that by leveraging, i.e., borrowing at Rf, the portfolio with the greater slope (TI), A, could attain a levered portfolio AL which clearly dominates portfolio B. In other L words, the line with the higher TI will dominate the line with a lower TI regardless of α values. This seems to imply that, in general, TI is a better measure of ex post portfolio performance, and that ranking based on TI's is consistent and invariant to the leverage effect, while ranking based on a's is not.

Among the topics that have been subjected to intensive research by businessschool scholars over the past two decades, few have received more attention than those which collectively comprise the field of investments. What is more important, even fewer have witnessed the plethora of important research findings that has been forthcoming in the investments field. Indeed, it seems reasonable to argue that in recent years no other business field's research accomplishments have been either as impressive or as generally reinforcing.

In a recent paper [3], Livingston analyzes the relationship between bond prices and market discount rates in a market with taxes, but which is otherwise frictionless. Two main cases are addressed. In the first, all investors are assumed to be in the same tax bracket and a relationship [17] is derived between the price of a bond, the rates of tax on income and capital gains, and the aftertax term structure. In a subsequent section, it is claimed that, when the assumption of a common tax bracket is removed, but maintaining the frictionless market assumption, the analysis is more or less unchanged:

”..there must still be a unique price of an annuity of maturity j and a unique price of a discount note of maturity j. There will be implicit tax rates in these annuities and discount notes for each maturity.… The bond pricing equation is the same except that TP and TG are replaced by TPj. and TGj., implicit marginal tax rates for each maturity” [3, p. 20].

Sophisticated investors frequently choose to publicly disclose private information, a phenomenon inconsistent with most theories of speculation. We propose and test a model to bridge this gap. We show that when a speculator cares about both short-term portfolio value and long-term profit, a disclosure mixing asset fundamentals and her holdings is optimal by inducing competitive dealership to revise prices toward those holdings while alleviating adverse selection. We find that when mutual fund managers have stronger short-term incentives, the frequency of strategic non-anonymous disclosures about their stocks by market-worthy newspaper articles increases and those stocks’ liquidity improves, consistent with our model.

Momentum profits depend mainly on the short leg and therefore on barriers to short sales. Our research indicates that the decline in momentum profitability in the past 2 decades is driven partly by a contemporaneous growth in stock options trading. Stock options offer an alternative to short selling, augmenting the stock lending market, and thereby contributing to improved pricing efficiency. The resulting reduction in barriers to short sales contributes to lower returns to momentum trading from the short leg. Our results persist after matching stocks with and without options based on different firm-level characteristics.

We develop a dynamic model of corporate investment and financing, in which shocks to the value of collateralizable assets generate variation in firms’ debt capacity. We show that the degree of similarity among firms’ financial flexibility forecasts cross-sectional variation in return correlation. We test the implications of the model with firm-level data in two empirical analyses using i) an instrumental variable approach based on shocks to the value of collateralizable corporate assets and ii) the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis as an event study. We find that firms in the same percentile of the cross-sectional distribution of financial flexibility have 62% higher correlation in stock-return residuals than firms 50 percentiles apart.

Analyzing 48 foreign exchange (FX) rates and 1.2 million FX-related news articles over a 35-year period, using digital textual analysis, we find that a currency reversal investment strategy that buys (sells) currencies with low (high) media sentiment offers strong positive and statistically significant returns and Sharpe ratios. The results are robust and the strategy adds value over other currency premia determinants. Analysts’ forecasts systematically mispredict the reversal strategy. This is the first article to show that price reversals based on media sentiment are a well-defined feature of the FX market.

We document statistically significant relations between mutual fund betas and past market returns driven by fund feedback trading. Against this backdrop, evidence of “artificial” market timing emerges when standard market timing regressions are estimated across periods that span time variation in fund systematic risk levels, as is typical. Artificial timing significantly explains the inverse relation between timing model estimates of market timing and stock selectivity. A fund’s feedback trading relates to its past performance and remains significant after accounting for trading on momentum. Fund flows suggest that investors value feedback trading, which helps hedge downside risk during bear markets.

This article studies how the rise of financial technology (Fintech) lending affects credit access, interest rates, and social welfare. We consider a lending competition model with two incumbent banks and a Fintech lender, which use different information and technologies to assess borrower creditworthiness. We show that Fintech lending could negatively affect high-quality borrowers’ access to credit when the Fintech lender’s screening accuracy is superior to that of the banks. Furthermore, Fintech lending may worsen the allocative efficiency of credit and reduce social welfare under some conditions. Analytical and numerical results suggest that Fintech lending mostly reduces the expected interest rates.

Consolidation in the U.S. banking industry has led to larger banks. I find that low-income households face reduced access to credit when local banks are large. This result appears to stem from large banks’ comparative disadvantage using soft information, which is particularly important for lending to low-income households. In contrast, the size of local banks has little or no effect on high-income households. Consistent with low-income parents’ credit constraints limiting investment in their children’s human capital, areas with larger banks exhibit a greater sensitivity of educational attainment to parental income, and less intergenerational economic mobility.

Yes. We show that aggregate stock returns predict aggregate U.S. employment, despite the industrial composition of publicly traded firms differing markedly from that of all firms, and the representativeness of public firms declining over time. We also show that appropriately reweighted stock returns predict industry and local labor market outcomes. We find the strongest evidence of an alignment of interests between shareholders and workers in the manufacturing sector, despite its declining labor share of output. Our findings suggest that at quarterly frequencies, product demand shocks are more important drivers of industry- and city-level stock returns than technology shocks.

Central counterparty (CCP) default waterfalls act as the last lines of defense in over-the-counter markets by managing and allocating resources to cover payment defaults. This article examines the impact of variations in waterfall design on financial system losses in the presence of payment network dependencies and frictions in the cleared and noncleared portion of the system. Through the development of a structural model, we draw several theoretical conclusions about the effectiveness of CCP default waterfalls under severe payment stress. These findings are empirically quantified by testing the model using supervisory data for the U.S. credit default swap market.

Using a novel data set of over 3,500 public and private firms, we construct the network of executive and director connections prior to the 1929 financial market crash. We find that more connected firms have 17% higher 10-year survival rates. Consistent with a working capital channel, the results are strongest for small, private, cash-poor firms, and firms located in counties with high bank suspension rates. Moreover, connections to cash-rich firms that increase accounts receivable matter the most. Our results suggest that network connections can play a stabilizing role during a financial crisis by easing the flow of capital to constrained firms.

Statistical analyses of price series generated by auction markets has been oriented historically toward the detection of structure (or lack of structure). While the results of such studies have been mixed, insufficient empirical evidence has been obtained on the properties of the measures employed to capture the inherent behavior of the price series. The first differences of the closing price have been shown, theoretically, to be unbiased for a random walk process. The use of averages, particularly the first differences of the midrange, has been shown to introduce spurious serial dependence in mathematical time series. It is the purpose of this article to examine the properties of both the delta close and delta midrange as measures, and to perform a variety of statistical tests and analyses to establish empirically the relationship between them. The predominant effort in seeking this relationship consisted of the spectral analysis of 11 years of May potato futures prices. The results obtained support the contention that the delta midrange amplifies the delta close, and that the amount of amplification is stochastic distortion in the delta midrange.

Term structure theories and the related specification of estimating equations are properly viewed as part of the complex multiperiod consumptioninvestment decision, a research area which presents many analytical problems (for a review, see Long [4]). Because of both the complexity and analytical difficulties, yield curve estimation has generally utilized rather ad hoc specifications. Thus, the recent article by Echols and Elliot [1] is to be applauded because it attempts to rigorously derive a yield curve specification based upon the pure expectations model of the term structure of interest rates.