The aim of the present research is to verify the immune status against tetanus in students and workers exposed to risk and to ascertain whether a decennial booster is necessary. Antibodies against tetanus were measured in 1433 workers and students of Padua University (Italy). The enrolment criterion was the ability to provide a booklet of vaccinations released by a public health office. The influence of age, gender, the number of vaccine doses, and the interval since the last dose was determined. Ten years after the last dose, the majority of subjects (95·0%) displayed an antibody titre above the protective level (⩾0·10 IU/ml), and half of these (49·1%) had a long-term protective level (⩾1·0 IU/ml). According to our data, titre depends on both the number of vaccine doses and the interval since the last dose (P < 0·0001). Five vaccine doses and an interval of at least 10 years since the last dose are predictive of a long-term protective titre in absence of a booster (1·97 IU/ml). These data suggest that when primary series are completed, a decennial booster is unnecessary for up to 20 years. Furthermore, we recommend measuring the antibody level before a new booster is given to prevent problems related to over-immunisation.

As part of further investigations into three linked haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) cases in Wales and England, 21 rats from a breeding colony in Cherwell, and three rats from a household in Cheltenham were screened for hantavirus. Hantavirus RNA was detected in either the lungs and/or kidney of 17/21 (81%) of the Cherwell rats tested, higher than previously detected by blood testing alone (7/21, 33%), and in the kidneys of all three Cheltenham rats. The partial L gene sequences obtained from 10 of the Cherwell rats and the three Cheltenham rats were identical to each other and the previously reported UK Cherwell strain. Seoul hantavirus (SEOV) RNA was detected in the heart, kidney, lung, salivary gland and spleen (but not in the liver) of an individual rat from the Cherwell colony suspected of being the source of SEOV. Serum from 20/20 of the Cherwell rats and two associated HFRS cases had high levels of SEOV-specific antibodies (by virus neutralisation). The high prevalence of SEOV in both sites and the moderately severe disease in the pet rat owners suggest that SEOV in pet rats poses a greater public health risk than previously considered.

Surveillance systems for varicella in Europe are highly heterogeneous or completely absent. We estimated the varicella incidence based on seroprevalence data, as these data are largely available and not biased by under-reporting or underascertainment. We conducted a systematic literature search for varicella serological data in Europe prior to introduction of universal varicella immunization. Age-specific serological data were pooled by country and serological profiles estimated using the catalytic model with piecewise constant force of infection. From the estimated profiles, we derived the annual incidence of varicella infection (/100·000) for six age groups (<5, 5–9, 10–14, 15–19, 20–39 and 40–65 years). In total, 43 studies from 16 countries were identified. By the age of 15 years, over 90% of the population has been infected by varicella in all countries except for Greece (86·6%) and Italy (85·3%). Substantial variability across countries exists in the age-specific annual incidence of varicella primary infection among the <5 years old (from 7052 to 16 122 per 100 000) and 5–9 years old (from 3292 to 11 798 per 100 000). The apparent validity and robustness of our estimates highlight the importance of serological data for the characterization of varicella epidemiology, even in the absence of sampling or assay standardization.

Over 300 cases of acute toxoplasmosis are confirmed by reference testing in England and Wales annually. We conducted a case-control study to identify risk factors for Toxoplasma gondii infection to inform prevention strategies. Twenty-eight cases and 27 seronegative controls participated. We compared their food history and environmental exposures using logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals in a model controlling for age and sex. Univariable analysis showed that the odds of eating beef (OR 10·7, P < 0·001), poultry (OR 6·4, P = 0·01) or lamb/mutton (OR 4·9, P = 0·01) was higher for cases than controls. After adjustment for potential confounders a strong association between beef and infection remained (OR 5·6, P = 0·01). The small sample size was a significant limitation and larger studies are needed to fully investigate potential risk factors. The study findings emphasize the need to ensure food is thoroughly cooked and handled hygienically, especially for those in vulnerable groups.

Salmonella is a leading cause of bacterial foodborne illness. We report the collaborative investigative efforts of US and Canadian public health officials during the 2013–2014 international outbreak of multiple Salmonella serotype infections linked to sprouted chia seed powder. The investigation included open-ended interviews of ill persons, traceback, product testing, facility inspections, and trace forward. Ninety-four persons infected with outbreak strains from 16 states and four provinces were identified; 21% were hospitalized and none died. Fifty-four (96%) of 56 persons who consumed chia seed powder, reported 13 different brands that traced back to a single Canadian firm, distributed by four US and eight Canadian companies. Laboratory testing yielded outbreak strains from leftover and intact product. Contaminated product was recalled. Although chia seed powder is a novel outbreak vehicle, sprouted seeds are recognized as an important cause of foodborne illness; firms should follow available guidance to reduce the risk of bacterial contamination during sprouting.

In October 2014, Public Health England (PHE) identified cases of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) serogroup O157 sharing a multiple locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) profile. We conducted a case-control study using multivariable logistic regression to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) testing a range of exposures. Cases were defined as laboratory-confirmed STEC O157 with the implicated MLVA profile, were UK residents aged ⩾18 years with symptom onset between 25 September and 30 October 2014, and had no history of travel abroad within 5 days of symptom onset. One hundred and two cases were identified. Cases were mostly female (65%; median age 49, range 2–92 years). It was the second largest outbreak seen in England, to date, and a case-control study was conducted using market research panel controls and online survey methods. These methods were instrumental in the rapid data collection and analysis necessary to allow traceback investigations for short shelf-life products. This is a new method of control recruitment and this is the first in which it was a standalone recruitment method. The case-control study suggested a strong association between consumption of a ready-to-eat food and disease (aOR 28, 95% CI 5·0–157) from one retailer. No reactive microbiological testing of food items during the outbreak was possible due to the short shelf-life of the product. Collaboration with industrial bodies is needed to ensure timely traceback exercises to identify contamination events and initiate appropriate and focused microbiological testing and implement control measures.

Euthanasia of infected dogs is one of the measures adopted in Brazil to control visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in endemic areas. To detect infected dogs, animals are screened with the rapid test DPP® Visceral Canine Leishmaniasis for detection of antibodies against K26/K39 fusion antigens of amastigotes (DPP). DPP-positives are confirmed with an immunoenzymatic assay probing soluble antigens of promastigotes (ELISA), while DPP-negatives are considered free of infection. Here, 975 dogs from an endemic region were surveyed by using DPP, ELISA and real-time PCR (qPCR) for the diagnosis of VL. When DPP-negative dogs were tested by qPCR applied in blood and lymph node aspirates, 174/887 (19·6%) were positive in at least one sample. In a second sampling using 115 cases, the DPP-negative dogs were tested by qPCR in blood, lymph node and conjunctival swab samples, and 36/79 (45·6%) were positive in at least one sample. Low-to-moderate pairwise agreement was observed between all possible pair of tests. In conclusion, the official diagnosis of VL in dogs in Brazilian endemic areas failed to accuse an expressive number of infected animals and the impact of the low accuracy of serological tests in the success of euthanasia-based measure for VL control need to be assessed.

Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease that the pathogen can be transmitted to humans through the excretions of infected animals. In the Republic of Korea, the Livestock Manure Control Act was enforced in September 2007 to improve underground water hygiene. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of Livestock Manure Control Policy on the incidence and the trend of human leptospirosis. An interrupted time series analysis using the monthly incidence of leptospirosis was conducted based on data derived from the Korean National Surveillance System between January 1999 and January 2015. We used a Spearman correlation method to compare the level of leptospirosis incidence decrease between the metropolitan cities and rural provinces. The annual incidence of leptospirosis in South Korea decreased by 33% after policy enforcement of the policy. A significant change in the slope of human leptospirosis cases was observed after the policy enforcement (β = −0·09, P < 0·001). Moreover, we detected a clear association between the size of the rice paddy fields and the decrease in leptospirosis incidence in provinces (r = 0·817, P = 0·01). This study shows that the Livestock Manure Control Policy had significantly reduced human leptospirosis incidence in the Republic of Korea, in particular, in rural regions.

Most vector-borne diseases infect multiple host species, but disentangling the relative importance of different host species to transmission can be complex. Here we study how host species’ abundance and competence (duration and titre of parasitaemia) influence host importance during epidemic scenarios. We evaluate this theory using Ross River virus (RRV, family Togaviridae, genus Alphavirus), a multi-host mosquito-borne disease with significant human health impacts across Australia and Papua New Guinea. We used host contribution models to find the importance of key hosts (possums, wallabies, kangaroos, horses, humans) in typical mammal communities around five Australian epidemic centres. We found humans and possums contributed most to epidemic RRV transmission, owing to their high abundances, generally followed by macropods. This supports humans as spillover hosts, and that human–mosquito and possum–mosquito transmission is predominant during epidemics. Sensitivity analyses indicate these findings to be robust across epidemic centres. We emphasize the importance of considering abundance and competence in identifying key hosts (during epidemics in this case), and that competence alone is inadequate. Knowledge of host importance in disease transmission may help to equip health agencies to bring about greater effectiveness of disease mitigation strategies.

Childhood varicella vaccination has not yet been introduced in the UK. To inform decision-making about future vaccine programmes, data on the burden of varicella in general practice over a 10-year period (01/01/2005–31/12/2014) was calculated by age and ethnicity, using anonymised data from >8 million individuals in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Varicella consultations peaked at 20 603 in 2007, then decreased annually in all age groups to 11 243 in 2014. Each year, consultation rates were common among infants, were highest among 1–3 year olds (61·2 consultations/1000 person-years in 2007, 39·7/1000 person-years in 2014) and then fell with increasing age to <1·0/1000 person-years at ages ⩾20 years. Varicella acquisition appeared to be delayed in some ethnic groups, with lower consultation rates for children aged <3 years but increased rates for older children and adults aged ⩽40 years among those of black African, Afro-Caribbean, South Asian or other Asian ethnicity. Decreasing general practice consultation rates over time could reflect changes in healthcare utilisation, with patients seeking care in alternative settings such as Accident and Emergency Departments, although current data prevent full assessment of this. Availability of data on varicella diagnoses across all health settings would enable estimation of the total healthcare burden due to varicella and the cost-effectiveness of introducing varicella vaccination.

We investigated the prevalence of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) carriage in slaughterhouse workers and the association with occupational exposure to slaughter animals and products. Stool samples from 334 employees in a Dutch pig slaughterhouse were obtained. Presence of ESBL was determined by selective plating, microarray analysis, and gene sequencing. Questionnaires were used to collect personal and occupational information. The overall prevalence of ESBL carriage was 4·8% (16/334). All ESBL-producing isolates were Escherichia coli. The ESBL genes detected were blaCTX-M-1 (n = 8), blaCTX-M-15 (n = 3), blaCTX-M-27 (n = 2), blaCTX-M-24 (n = 1), blaCTX-M-55 (n = 1), and blaSHV-12 (n = 1). A higher prevalence of ESBL was seen in workers in jobs with as tasks ‘removal of lungs, heart, liver, tongue’ (33%), and ‘removal of head and spinal cord’ (25%). For further analysis, participants were divided in two groups based on potential exposure to ESBL as related to their job title. One group with an assumed higher exposure to ESBL (e.g. stable work, stabbing, dehairing, removal of organs) and another group with an assumed lower exposure to ESBL (e.g. refrigeration, packaging and expedition). In the ‘higher exposure’ group, ten out of 95 (10·5%) were carrying ESBL vs. six out of 233 (2·6%) in the ‘lower exposure’ group. Human ESBL carriage was significantly associated with job exposure in the slaughterhouse (OR 4·5, CI 1·6–12·6). Results suggest that ESBL carriage in slaughterhouse workers overall is comparable with the Dutch population. Within the slaughterhouse population a difference in carriage exists depending on their position along the slaughter line and tasks involved.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) is a known food pathogen, which main reservoir is the intestine of ruminants. The abundance of different STEC lineages in nature reflect a heterogeneity that is characterised by the differential expression of certain genotypic characteristics, which in turn are influenced by the environmental conditions to which the microorganism is exposed. Bacterial homeostasis and stress response are under the control of the alarmone guanosine tetraphosphate (ppGpp), which intrinsic levels varies across the E. coli species. In the present study, 50 STEC isolates from healthy sheep were evaluated regarding their ppGpp content, cytotoxicity and other relevant genetic and phenotypic characteristics. We found that the level of ppGpp and cytotoxicity varied considerably among the examined strains. Isolates that harboured the stx2 gene were the least cytotoxic and presented the highest levels of ppGpp. All stx2 isolates belonged to phylogroup A, while strains that carried stx1 or both stx1 and stx2 genes pertained to phylogroup B1. All but two stx2 isolates belonged to the stx2b subtype. Strains that belonged to phylogroup B1 displayed on average low levels of ppGpp and high cytotoxicity. Overall, there was a negative correlation between cytotoxicity and ppGpp.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the microbiological quality of liver pâté. During 2012–13, a total of 870 samples, unrelated to the investigation of food-poisoning outbreaks, were collected either at retail (46%), catering (53%) or the point of manufacture (1%) and were tested using standard methods to detect Salmonella spp. or Campylobacter spp., and to enumerate for Listeria spp., including Listeria monocytogenes, Clostridium perfringens, coagulase-positive staphylococci including Staphylococcus aureus, Bacillus spp., including Bacillus cereus, Escherichia coli, Enterobacteriaceae, and aerobic colony counts (ACCs). Seventy-three percent of samples were of satisfactory microbiological quality, 18% were borderline and 9% unsatisfactory. Salmonella spp. or Campylobacter spp. was not recovered from any sample. The most common causes of unsatisfactory results were elevated ACCs (6% of the samples) and high Enterobacteriaceae counts (4% of samples). The remaining unsatisfactory results were due to elevated counts of: E. coli (three samples); B. cereus (one sample at 2·6 × 105 cfu/g); or L. monocytogenes (one sample at 2·9 × 103 cfu/g). Pâté from retail was less likely to be contaminated with L. monocytogenes than samples collected from catering and samples from supermarkets were of significantly better microbiological quality than those from catering establishments.

The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalent Bibersteinia, Mannheimia and Pasteurella serotypes, risk factors and degree of serotype co-infections in sheep and goats in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. Serum was collected from 384 sheep and goats from the Tanqua-Abergelle district of Tigray region using cross-sectional random sampling. An indirect haemagglutination test was used for serotyping. Risk factors for infections were evaluated by logistic regression. Potential clustering of multiple serotypes within individual animals due to common risk factors was evaluated by redundancy analysis. Eight serotypes were identified: all studied animals were serologically positive for at least one serotype. Overall, 355 (92·45%) of the animals were infected by four or more serotypes. Of the five risk factors studied, peasant association (PA), animal species, age (serotype A1), and bodyweight (serotype T15) were significantly associated with infection, but sex was not significant. Only PA explained a significant proportion of the variation (adjusted R2 = 0·16) in the serological responses. After the effect of PA was accounted for, T3 and T4; A7 and Pasteurella multocida A; and A7 and T10 were positively correlated for co-infection, while T4 and T10 were less likely to be found within the same animal. Diverse serotypes were circulating in the Tigray region and could be a challenge in selecting serotypes for vaccine.

Bacteraemia caused by Escherichia coli are particularly frequent and severe, contrasting with the commensal character of the strains found in the digestive tract. A better understanding of the relationships between strains of both origins is needed to unravel the pathogenesis of this disease. Two hundred and forty-three commensal strains were compared to 243 bacteraemic strains isolated from adult hosts matched in terms of gender and age, and from similar location and epoch. Phylogenetic grouping, O-type determination, virulence factor content and antibiotic resistance were compared. Compared to commensal strains, the bacteraemic strains were characterized by a higher proportion of B2, C and D phylogroups, and a lower proportion of A, E and F phylogroups. They also had a lower proportion of the B2 subgroup IV (STc141), a higher proportion of virulence factors, and a higher frequency of antibiotic resistance. These differences were more marked for the bacteraemic strains of urinary tract origin with the presence of specific clones, whereas the bacteraemic strains of digestive origin remained non-significantly different from the commensal strains, except for their antibiotic resistance. Thus, two levels of specialization from commensal strains were demonstrated in the bacteraemic strains: resistance to antibiotics in all cases, and virulence for those of urinary tract origin.

Suriname is ranked as high-risk country for cervical cancer, but recent national data of HPV prevalence and distribution in cervical cancer is scarce. In a retrospective cross-sectional study, cervical cancer incidence, HPV prevalence and HPV-type-specific distribution were investigated in all cervical cancer cases (n = 111), diagnosed in two consecutive years. HPV presence and type-specific prevalence were determined in paraffin-embedded biopsies utilizing master-nested multiplex PCR assays, targeting 14 HPV types. The age-standardized incidence rate of cervical cancer was 22·4/100 000 women, justifying revision of the current international ranking of Suriname. Eleven HPV types were detected, with the most common types in descending order of frequency: 16, 18, 45, 66, 58/52/35. HPV16 was predominant, although with markedly low presence (25%). HPV16 or 18 infections were detected in 43% of the cases, while 28% were untyped, implicating a divergent HPV-type distribution in Suriname with significant variation in the prevalence of less common high-risk virus types and/or presence of HPV16 variants. HPV-type distribution differed between ethnic groups. A vaccination efficacy of just 28–30% was anticipated, next to an uneven vaccination impact in different ethnic groups, cautioning Suriname and other multi-ethnic countries to tailor the information presented to different ethnic communities.

Passive surveillance for lyssaviruses in UK bats has been ongoing since 1987 and has identified 13 cases of EBLV-2 from a single species; Myotis daubentonii. No other lyssavirus species has been detected. Between 2005 and 2015, 10 656 bats were submitted, representing 18 species, creating a spatially and temporally uneven sample of British bat fauna. Uniquely, three UK cases originate from a roost at Stokesay Castle in Shropshire, England, where daily checks for grounded and dead bats are undertaken and bat carcasses have been submitted for testing since 2007. Twenty per cent of Daubenton's bats submitted from Stokesay Castle since surveillance began, have tested positive for EBLV-2. Phylogenetic analysis reveals geographical clustering of UK viruses. Isolates from Stokesay Castle are more closely related to one another than to viruses from other regions. Daubenton's bats from Stokesay Castle represent a unique opportunity to study a natural population that appears to maintain EBLV-2 infection and may represent endemic infection at this site. Although the risk to public health from EBLV-2 is low, consequences of infection are severe and effective communication on the need for prompt post-exposure prophylaxis for anyone that has been bitten by a bat is essential.

The purpose of this study was to clarify the association between hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics and meteorological conditions. We used HFMD surveillance data of all 47 prefectures in Japan from January 2000 to December 2015. Spectral analysis was performed using the maximum entropy method (MEM) for temperature-, relative humidity-, and total rainfall-dependent incidence data. Using MEM-estimated periods, long-term oscillatory trends were calculated using the least squares fitting (LSF) method. The temperature and relative humidity thresholds of HFMD data were estimated from the LSF curves. The average temperature data indicated a lower threshold at 12 °C and a higher threshold at 30 °C for risk of HFMD infection. Maximum and minimum temperature data indicated a lower threshold at 6 °C and a higher threshold at 35 °C, suggesting a need for HFMD control measures at temperatures between 6 and 35 °C. Based on our findings, we recommend the use of maximum and minimum temperatures rather than the average temperature, to estimate the temperature threshold of HFMD infections. The results obtained might aid in the prediction of epidemics and preparation for the effect of climatic changes on HFMD epidemiology.

Tuberculosis (TB) affects people globally and is being reconsidered as a serious public health problem in China. Reliable forecasting is useful for the prevention and control of TB. This study proposes a hybrid model combining autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with a nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) neural network for forecasting the incidence of TB from January 2007 to March 2016. Prediction performance was compared between the hybrid model and the ARIMA model. The best-fit hybrid model was combined with an ARIMA (3,1,0) × (0,1,1)12 and NAR neural network with four delays and 12 neurons in the hidden layer. The ARIMA-NAR hybrid model, which exhibited lower mean square error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error of 0·2209, 0·1373, and 0·0406, respectively, in the modelling performance, could produce more accurate forecasting of TB incidence compared to the ARIMA model. This study shows that developing and applying the ARIMA-NAR hybrid model is an effective method to fit the linear and nonlinear patterns of time-series data, and this model could be helpful in the prevention and control of TB.

Measles is a major cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in many parts of the world. Estimates of the case-fatality rate (CFR) of measles have varied widely from place to place, as well as in the same location over time. Amongst populations that have experienced famine or armed conflict, measles CFR can be especially high, although past work has mostly focused on refugee populations. Here, we estimate measles CFR between 1970 and 1991 in a rural region of Bangladesh, which experienced civil war and famine in the 1970s. We use historical measles mortality data and a mechanistic model of measles transmission to estimate the CFR of measles. We first demonstrate the ability of this model to recover the CFR in the absence of incidence data, using simulated mortality data. Our method produces CFR estimates that correspond closely to independent estimates from surveillance data and we can capture both the magnitude and the change in CFR suggested by these previous estimates. We use this method to quantify the sharp increase in CFR that resulted in a large number of deaths during a measles outbreak in the region in 1976. Most of the children who died during this outbreak were born during a famine in 1974, or in the 2 years preceding the famine. Our results suggest that the period of turmoil during and after the 1971 war and the sustained effects of the famine, is likely to have contributed to the high fatality burden of the 1976 measles outbreak in Matlab.