India is one of the severely affected countries by the Covid-19 pandemic at present. Within the stochastic framework of the SEQIR model, we studied publicly available data of the Covid-19 patients in India and analysed possible impacts of quarantine and social distancing as controlling strategies for the pandemic. Our stochastic simulation results clearly show that proper quarantine and social distancing should be maintained right from the start of the pandemic and continued until its end for effective control. This calls for a more disciplined social lifestyle in the future. However, only social distancing and quarantine of the exposed population are found not sufficient enough to end the pandemic in India. Therefore, implementation of other stringent policies like complete lockdown as well as increased testing of susceptible populations is necessary. The demographic stochasticity, which is quite visible in the system dynamics, has a critical role in regulating and controlling the pandemic.

1. Though Shanghai is in close communication with ports in which plague is endemic, it has not suffered severely.

2. The number of human cases is small compared with the number of plague-infected rats found.

3. Both X. cheopis and C. fasciatus are found. Reasons are given for considering that X. cheopis is the chief agent in spreading plague, and that infection, being unlikely to reach Shanghai during the season when this flea flourishes, has difficulty in gaining a foothold.

4. The discrepancy between the number of cases of human and rat plague may possibly be explained by the habits of C. fasciatus.

The acute rodenticide gophacide was tested against urban infestations of the house mouse (Mus musculus L.) and treatment success was assessed from the results of census baitings conducted before and after each treatment. Seven of eight populations of mice living in premises where alternative food supplies were limited were successfully controlled when medium oatmeal bait containing gophacide at 0.1% was laid directly for 4 days. In further treatments against mice inhabiting more complex environments and having greater access to other foods, the performance of gophacide at 0.1% and at 0.25% in a wholemeal flour/pinhead oatmeal/corn oil bait was compared with that of zinc phosphide at 3.0% in the same bait-base. The poison treatments were conducted for 1 or 4 days and always after 3 days pre-baiting. Treatment success varied considerably irrespective of the type of treatment or of the poison used. In general, however, gophacide proved to be as effective as zinc phosphide for the control of mice.

Varicella is a highly infectious contagious disease, and Chongqing is one of the high incidence areas in China. To understand the epidemic regularity and predict the epidemic trend of varicella is of great significance to the risk analysis and health resource allocation in the health sector. First, we used the ‘STL’ function to decompose the incidence of varicella to understand its trend and seasonality. Second, we established SARIMA model for linear fitting, and then took the residual of the SARIMA model as the sample to fit the LS-SVM model, to explain the non-linearity of the residuals. The monthly varicella incidence peaks in April to June and October to December. Mixed model was compared to SARIMA model, the prediction error of the hybrid model was smaller, and the RMSE and MAPE values of the hybrid model were 0.7525 and 0.0647, respectively, the mixed model had a better prediction effect. Based on the study, the incidence of varicella in Chongqing has an obvious seasonal trend, and a hybrid model can also predict the incidence of varicella well. Thus, hybrid model analysis is a feasible and simple method to predict varicella in Chongqing.

The aim of this study is to analyse the changing patterns in the transmission of COVID-19 in relation to changes in Vietnamese governmental policies, based on epidemiological data and policy actions in a large Vietnamese province, Bac Ninh, in 2021. Data on confirmed cases from January to December 2021 were collected, together with policy documents. There were three distinct periods of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bac Ninh province during 2021. During the first period, referred to as the ‘Zero-COVID’ period (01/04–07/04/2021), there was a low population vaccination rate, with less than 25% of the population receiving its first vaccine dose. Measures implemented during this period focused on domestic movement restrictions, mask mandates, and screening efforts to control the spread of the virus. The subsequent period, referred to as the ‘Transition’ period (07/05–10/22/2021), witnessed a significant increase in population vaccination coverage, with 80% of the population receiving their first vaccine dose. During this period, several days passed without any reported COVID-19 cases in the community. The local government implemented measures to manage domestic actions and reduce the time spent in quarantine, and encouraged home quarantining for the close contacts of cases with COVID-19. Finally, the ‘New-normal’ stage (10/23–12/31/2021), during which the population vaccination coverage with a second vaccine dose increased to 70%, and most of the mandates for the prevention and control of COVID-19 were reduced. In conclusion, this study highlights the importance of governmental policies in managing and controlling the transmission of COVID-19 and provides insights for developing realistic and context-specific strategies in similar settings.

Few countries routinely collect comprehensive encephalitis data, yet understanding the epidemiology of this condition has value for clinical management, detecting novel and emerging pathogens, and guiding timely public health interventions. When this study was conducted there was no standardized diagnostic algorithm to aid identification of encephalitis or systematic surveillance for adult encephalitis. In July 2012 we tested three pragmatic surveillance options aimed at identifying possible adult encephalitis cases admitted to a major Australian hospital: hospital admissions searches, clinician notifications and laboratory test alerts (CSF herpes simplex virus requests). Eligible cases underwent structured laboratory investigation and a specialist panel arbitrated on the final diagnosis. One hundred and thirteen patients were initially recruited into the 10-month study; 20/113 (18%) met the study case definition, seven were diagnosed with infectious or immune-mediated encephalitis and the remainder were assigned alternative diagnoses. The laboratory alert identified 90% (102/113) of recruited cases including six of the seven cases of confirmed encephalitis suggesting that this may be a practical data source for case ascertainment. The application of a standardized diagnostic algorithm and specialist review by an expert clinical panel aided diagnosis of patients with encephalitis.

1. Microscopical examination of the kidneys of 850 Rattus norvegicus killed in various parts of England and Wales showed an infection rate of 43% with leptospires, assumed to be Leptospira icterohaemorrhagiae for reasons stated.

2. Infection rates calculated from the whole series were the same for rural, urban and sewer rats, but there were some local differences as between one area and another for both surface and sewer rats.

3. An unusual feature was the finding of a 35% infection rate among young rats.

4. In another series of 219 rats taken alive, agglutination tests and kidney cultures gave an infection rate of 43%. Kidney sections of 69 of these rats were also examined microscopically and the results of the different methods of examination were analysed.

5. A similar survey was made on R. rattus. Only 2 of 88 caught in London were positive, compared with 31 of 35 killed in other towns. An additional 98 R. rattus killed during the fumigation of ocean-going steamers were examined, and 69 were found to be infected.

I should like to record my thanks to the following members of staff at the Infestation Control Division of the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Tolworth, Surbiton, Surrey, for their help in this survey: Mr C. J. Armour, Dr E. W. Bentley, Dr W. P. Crowcroft, Mr R. A. Davis, Miss Y. Larthe and Miss M. Lawrence. Also to the following Field Officers of the Ministry who supplied material for this investigation: Mr A. F. R. Brown, Mr R. J. Clark, Mr G. R. Hill, Mr A. C. Hopkins, Mr R. S. Jailler, Miss B. B. Jones, Miss M. Neve, Mrs J. C. Russell and Mr S. R. Surtees.

I wish also to acknowledge the valuable assistance received from members of my technical staff, especially Miss Joan Messum and Mr R. J. Reed.

Rubella haemagglutination inhibiting (HAI) antibody titres were determined in 54 seronegative women and 31 naturally immune women after vaccination and revaccination with Wistar RA27/3 strain rubella vaccine administered by the intranasal or subcutaneous routes or revaccination with the Cendehill strain administered subcutaneously. In addition, HAI antibody titres were determined in 46 seronegative schoolgirls after vaccination with the Cendehill strain and revaccination with the RA27/3 strain.

All seronegative women vaccinated with the RA27/3 strain developed antibody, peak titres being reached 6 weeks after vaccination. Six months after vaccination with the Cendehill strain, 45 (98%) of the 46 seronegative girls had developed antibody, but 11 (24%) had not reached their peak titre by 6 weeks, suggesting a slower response than that elicited by the RA27/3 strain. Revaccination did not induce significant antibody responses in the seronegative women vaccinated 6 months previously with RA27/3 but 4 naturally immune women developed an eightfold increase in antibody. In 10 (22%) of 46 schoolgirls previously vaccinated with the Cendehill strain a significant rise in antibody followed revaccination with RA27/3. These results provide further evidence of the more rapid antibody responses elicited by the RA27/3 vaccine in comparison with the Cendehill vaccine.

An outbreak of natural rubella occurred in 1972 and 97 cases were confirmed serologically. The clinical disease was more common in older school-children and in adults. More males than females were affected in the 11–15 age group, the sex ratio being 18:12; this may be explained by the routine vaccination of girls of this age group as part of the national programme which began in 1970. The significance of the persistence of high HAI antibody titres after natural infection and the effect of the epidemic on the serological status of the population are discussed.

It has been found that when a toad is injected subcutaneously (e.g. in the dorsal sac) with tubercle bacilli the micro-organisms disseminate but are stored in the liver mainly, where they multiply slowly without producing visible lesions and can be recovered by culture or injection of guinea-pigs after several years. Bovine tubercle bacilli were recovered in culture from the liver 1, 2 and over 3 years after subcutaneous injection and tubercle bacilli of avian type were still viable after 900 days in the liver.

In this paper the term B. coli is used in its most restricted sense, and as implying organisms having all the characters of the typical B. coli communis. It is a well-ascertained fact that B. coli, even when the term is so restricted, exhibit very varying virulence.

In 1927 we undertook certain work at the request of the Medical Research Council, as part of an international investigation into the standardisation of scarlet fever reagents promoted by the Health Organisation of the League of Nations. The laboratory work was carried out by the late Dr G. R. James, and his untimely death caused the suspension of the research. A great many observations, however, had been made. Since many of these have a general interest, and since up to the time of writing no completely satisfactory experimental method of assay has been devised, we have no hesitation in adding to the volume of evidence that is accumulating with regard to the methods at present in use.

(1) The graphic method is more easy of application and requires less mathematical knowledge than the extended analytical method.

(2) In our experience it produces smooth curves of px and Ex.

(3) The analytical in the selection of the best process of interpolation appeals to the graphic method.

(4) While either the analytical or graphic process may in unskilful or careless hands give erroneous results, owing to errors in working out, the analytical process, unlike the graphic, presents a wide choice of methods, which although accurately worked out, give incomparable results.

(5) The facts given in the table on page 321 and in Fig. 1 A and B and table on page 317 show that almost identical results are obtained by the graphic method and by the improved extended analytical method. We regard this as important testimony to the accuracy of each of these methods, and at the same time as indicating the inaccuracy of the analytical methods giving different results.

(6) As the results obtained by the modified short analytical method and by the combined analytical and graphic method approximate so closely to those obtained by the detailed graphic method, either of them may safely be adopted by those who cannot spare time for working out a detailed Life Table by the graphic method.

(7) Every published Life Table should give exact details of the method of its construction, in order that the comparability of data and results may be tested. Much confusion has arisen, and important errors in comparison between different Life Tables have been produced, by the use of different methods of construction and the non-publication of details of methods.

In the month of June, 1905, no fewer than 99,518 natives were employed on mines and works in the labour districts of the Witwatersrand, and the neighbouring mining areas of Klerksdorp, Heidelberg, and Vereeniging. In addition to these there were also working on the gold mines over 45,000 Chinese labourers. This vast industrial army is recruited from many and in great measure from very distant sources. Of the natives employed during the year ending June, 1905, the whole of British South Africa furnished only just over 32%: less than 2% came from British Central Africa: 60% were drawn from the Southern Portuguese East Coast provinces; and 3.6% from the Portuguese provinces north of latitude 22°. German South-West Africa contributed under 1%, but this area has latterly ceased to be a source of supply.

There could be no more suitable preface to emphasise the need for Diphtheria prevention than the following quotation from so high an authority as the metropolitan Asylums Board's Report of 1924–25: “Notwithstanding the great improvement in diagnosis, standard of living, education in matters of hygiene and other public health measures, the fact remains that, for reason not altogether clear, diphtheria appears to be stregthening its forces and gathering power unchecked by science.”

The aim of this study was to evaluate potential sampling strategies for detection of infected flocks that could be applied during an outbreak of low pathogenicity notifiable avian influenza (LPNAI) initiated in duck holdings, following initial detection. A simulation model of avian influenza virus transmission and spread within and between holdings, respectively, was used to predict the impact on the size and duration of an outbreak of (i) changing the tracing window within which premises that might be the source of infection or that may have been infected by the index premises were sampled and (ii) changing the number of birds sampled in the flock being tested. It has shown that there is potential benefit in increasing the tracing window in terms of reducing the likelihood of a large outbreak. It has also shown that there is comparatively little benefit from increasing the number of birds sampled per flock.

Reduced vancomycin susceptibility (RVS) may lead to poor clinical outcomes in Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia. We conducted a cohort study of 392 patients with S. aureus bacteraemia within a university health system. The association between RVS, as defined by both Etest [vancomycin minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) >1·0 μg/ml] and broth microdilution (vancomycin MIC ⩾1·0 μg/ml), and patient and clinical variables were evaluated to create separate predictive models for RVS. In total, 134 (34·2%) and 73 (18·6%) patients had S. aureus isolates with RVS by Etest and broth microdilution, respectively. The final model for RVS by Etest included methicillin resistance [odds ratio (OR) 1·51, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·97–2·34], non-white race (OR 0·67, 95% CI 0·42–1·07), healthcare-associated infection (OR 0·56, 95% CI 0·32–0·96), and receipt of any antimicrobial therapy ⩽30 days prior to the culture date (OR 3·06, 95% CI 1·72–5·44). The final model for RVS by broth microdilution included methicillin resistance (OR 2·45, 95% CI 1·42–4·24), admission through the emergency department (OR 0·54, 95% CI 0·32–0·92), presence of an intravascular device (OR 2·24, 95% CI 1·30–3·86), and malignancy (OR 0·51, 95% CI 0·26–1·00). The availability of an easy and rapid clinical prediction rule for early identification of RVS can be used to help guide the timely and individualized management of these serious infections.