We consider the problem of maximizing the probability of stopping on any of the last m successes in independent Bernoulli trials with random horizon of length N, where m is a predetermined integer. A prior is given for N. It is known that, when N is degenerate, i.e. P{N = n} = 1 for a given n > m, the sum-the-multiplicative-odds theorem gives the solution and shows that the optimal rule is a threshold rule, i.e. it stops on the first success appearing after a given stage. However, when N is nondegenerate, the optimal rule is not necessarily a threshold rule. So our main concern in Section 2 is to give a sufficient condition for the optimal rule to be a threshold rule when N is a bounded random variable such that P{N ≤ n} = 1. Application will be made to the usual (discrete arrival time) secretary problem with a random number N of applicants in Section 3. When N is uniform or curtailed geometric, the optimal rules are shown to be threshold rules and their asymptotic results are obtained. We also examine, as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process model, an intermediate prior that allows N to be uniform or degenerate. In Section 4 we consider a continuous arrival time version of the secretary problem with a random number M of applicants. It is shown that, whatever the distribution of M, we can win with probability greater than or equal to um*, where um* is, as given in (1.4), the asymptotic win probability of the usual secretary problem when N degenerates to n and n → ∞.

Matryoshka dolls, the traditional Russian nesting figurines, are known worldwide for each doll’s encapsulation of a sequence of smaller dolls. In this paper, we exploit the structure of a new sequence of nested matrices we call matryoshkan matrices in order to compute the moments of the one-dimensional polynomial processes, a large class of Markov processes. We characterize the salient properties of matryoshkan matrices that allow us to compute these moments in closed form at a specific time without computing the entire path of the process. This simplifies the computation of the polynomial process moments significantly. Through our method, we derive explicit expressions for both transient and steady-state moments of this class of Markov processes. We demonstrate the applicability of this method through explicit examples such as shot noise processes, growth–collapse processes, ephemerally self-exciting processes, and affine stochastic differential equations from the finance literature. We also show that we can derive explicit expressions for the self-exciting Hawkes process, for which finding closed-form moment expressions has been an open problem since their introduction in 1971. In general, our techniques can be used for any Markov process for which the infinitesimal generator of an arbitrary polynomial is itself a polynomial of equal or lower order.

Suppose that I1, I2,… is a sequence of independent Bernoulli random variables with E(In) = λ/(λ + n − 1), n = 1, 2,…. If λ is a positive integer k, {In}n≥1 can be interpreted as a k-record process of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables with a common continuous distribution. When In−1In = 1, we say that a consecutive k-record occurs at time n. It is known that the total number of consecutive k-records is Poisson distributed with mean k. In fact, for general is Poisson distributed with mean λ. In this paper, we want to find an optimal stopping time τλ which maximizes the probability of stopping at the last n such that In−1In = 1. We prove that τλ is of threshold type, i.e. there exists a tλ ∈ ℕ such that τλ = min{n | n ≥ tλ, In−1In = 1}. We show that tλ is increasing in λ and derive an explicit expression for tλ. We also compute the maximum probability Qλ of stopping at the last consecutive record and study the asymptotic behavior of Qλ as λ → ∞.

The speed of extinction for some generalized Jiřina processes {Xn} is discussed. We first discuss the geometric speed. Under some mild conditions, the results reveal that the sequence {cn}, where c does not equal the pseudo-drift parameter at x = 0, cannot estimate the speed of extinction accurately. Then the general case is studied. We determine a group of sufficient conditions such that Xn/cn, with a suitable constant cn, converges almost surely as n → ∞ to a proper, nondegenerate random variable. The main tools used in this paper are exponent martingales and stochastic growth models.

We study the harmonic moments of Galton-Watson processes that are possibly inhomogeneous and have positive values. Good estimates of these are needed to compute unbiased estimators for noncanonical branching Markov processes, which occur, for instance, in the modelling of the polymerase chain reaction. By convexity, the ratio of the harmonic mean to the mean is at most 1. We prove that, for every square-integrable branching mechanism, this ratio lies between 1-A/k and 1-A/k for every initial population of size k>A. The positive constants A and Aͤ are such that A≥Aͤ, are explicit, and depend only on the generation-by-generation branching mechanisms. In particular, we do not use the distribution of the limit of the classical martingale associated with the Galton-Watson process. Thus, emphasis is put on nonasymptotic bounds and on the dependence of the harmonic mean upon the size of the initial population. In the Bernoulli case, which is relevant for the modelling of the polymerase chain reaction, we prove essentially optimal bounds that are valid for every initial population size k≥1. Finally, in the general case and for sufficiently large initial populations, similar techniques yield sharp estimates of the harmonic moments of higher degree.

Two classical stochastic processes are considered, the Ehrenfest process, introduced in 1907 in the kinetic theory of gases to describe the heat exchange between two bodies, and the Engset process, one of the early (1918) stochastic models of communication networks. In this paper we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the distributions of hitting times of these two processes when the number of particles/sources goes to infinity. Results concerning the hitting times of boundaries in particular are obtained. We rely on martingale methods; a key ingredient is an important family of simple nonnegative martingales, an analogue, for the Ehrenfest process, of the exponential martingales used in the study of random walks or of Brownian motion.

Let (Xt)t≥0 be a continuous-time irreducible Markov chain on a finite state space E, let v be a map v: E→ℝ\{0}, and let (φt)t≥0 be an additive functional defined by φt=∫0tv(Xs)d s. We consider the case in which the process (φt)t≥0 is oscillating and that in which (φt)t≥0 has a negative drift. In each of these cases, we condition the process (Xt,φt)t≥0 on the event that (φt)t≥0 is nonnegative until time T and prove weak convergence of the conditioned process as T→∞.

We study the endemic behaviour of a homogeneously mixing SIS epidemic in a population of size N with a general infectious period, Q, by introducing a novel subcritical branching process with immigration approximation. This provides a simple but useful approximation of the quasistationary distribution of the SIS epidemic for finite N and the asymptotic Gaussian limit for the endemic equilibrium as N → ∞. A surprising observation is that the quasistationary distribution of the SIS epidemic model depends on Q only through

Motivated by applications in digital image processing, we discuss information-theoretic bounds to the amount of detail that can be recovered from a defocused, noisy signal. Mathematical models are constructed for test-pattern, defocusing and noise. Using these models, upper bounds are derived for the amount of detail that can be recovered from the degraded signal, using any method of image restoration. The bounds are used to assess the performance of the class of linear restorative procedures. Certain members of the class are shown to be optimal, in the sense that they attain the bounds, while others are shown to be sub-optimal. The effect of smoothness of point-spread function on the amount of resolvable detail is discussed concisely.

This paper focuses on the analyticity of the limiting behavior of a class of dynamical systems defined by iteration of non-expansive random operators. The analyticity is understood with respect to the parameters which govern the law of the operators. The proofs are based on contraction with respect to certain projective semi-norms. Several examples are considered, including Lyapunov exponents associated with products of random matrices both in the conventional algebra, and in the (max, +) semi-field, and Lyapunov exponents associated with non-linear dynamical systems arising in stochastic control. For the class of reducible operators (defined in the paper), we also address the issue of analyticity of the expectation of functionals of the limiting behavior, and connect this with contraction properties with respect to the supremum norm. We give several applications to queueing theory.

With the general convergence theory for branching processes as basis a special problem is studied. An extra point process of events during life is assigned to each realised individual, and the behaviour of the superposition of such point processes in action is studied as the population grows. With the proper scaling and under some regularity conditions the superposition is shown to converge in distribution to a Poisson process. Another scaling gives rise to a mixed Poisson process as limit.

Established weak convergence techniques for point processes are applied, together with some recent strong convergence results for branching processes.

The annual premium for a life assurance contract is obtained by equating the expected discounted value of the sum payable on death to the expected discounted value of the series of premiums, and loading the resultant net premium for expenses and contingencies. The approach is essentially deterministic. An adequate stochastic model of mortality is readily available, but it is of limited practical value. A life office writes a large number of policies on independent lives and, apart from the effects of a few very large policies, the overall mortality behaviour of its portfolio is effectively deterministic.

A general study of the asymptotic law of a skew-product of two real diffusions is proposed; a complete and elementary form of the Rosenkrantz theorem is given; the results are applied to three examples: the Brownian motions on SO3, on S3, and on SH3.

Correction terms are obtained for the Brownian motion approximation to one- and two-barrier first-passage probabilities. These approximations are given in terms of their Laplace transforms, which are formally (and non-rigorously) inverted. Applications to the one-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic are discussed.