A neural-network-based large eddy simulation is performed for flow over a circular cylinder. To predict the subgrid-scale (SGS) stresses, we train two fully connected neural network (FCNN) architectures with and without fusing information from two separate single-frame networks (FU and nFU, respectively), where the input variable is either the strain rate (SR) or the velocity gradient (VG). As the input variables, only the grid-filtered variables are considered for the SGS models of G-SR and G-VG, and both the grid- and test-filtered variables are considered for the SGS models of T-SR and T-VG. The training data are the filtered direct numerical simulation (fDNS) data at $Re_d=3900$ based on the free-stream velocity and cylinder diameter. Using the same grid resolution as that of the training data, the performances of G-SR and G-VG (grid-filtered inputs) and T-SR-FU and T-VG-FU (grid- and test-filtered inputs with fusion) are better than those of the dynamic Smagorinsky model and T-SR-nFU and T-VG-nFU (grid- and test-filtered inputs without fusion). These FCNN-based SGS models are applied to untrained flows having different grid resolutions from that of training data. Although the performances of G-SR and G-VG are degraded, T-SR-FU and T-VG-FU still provide good performances. Finally, T-SR-FU and T-VG-FU trained at $Re_d = 3900$ are applied to higher-Reynolds-number flows ($Re_d = 5000$ and 10 000) and their results are also in good agreements with those of fDNS and previous experiment, indicating that adding the test-filtered variables and fusion increases the prediction capability even for untrained Reynolds number flows.

By introducing automation development into a labor search model, this paper obtains that the increasing importance of automation in production may be responsible for the reduction in job reallocation along the transitional dynamics path. In the long run, we find automation also increases the total unemployment rate and reduces overall labor force participation. In addition, decreasing any disparity between differently skilled labor is detrimental to job reallocation along the transitional dynamics path, and both the long-run total unemployment rate and overall labor market participation will fall. Nevertheless, appropriate government subsidy policies can improve business dynamics across the labor market.

As readers of this journal can attest to, although philosophers and economists are somewhat used to talking to and learning from each other, it tends to be the subset of philosophers working in decision theory, philosophy of science, and particular areas of ethics and political philosophy that contribute to our interdisciplinary field of research. The book that is the subject of this review symposium, Anna Mahtani’s The Objects of Credence (Oxford University Press, 2024), is a wonderful exemplar of what can be learned when a different branch of philosophy is brought to bear on central questions in this field. Both philosophers and economists talk about and work with credences, or degrees of belief, all the time. These are usually modelled as probabilities, which are in turn usually thought of as attaching to propositions. But it has long been argued by philosophers of language that propositions cannot be the objects of credence. Mahtani’s book is an investigation into all that begins to unravel once we accept this insight. The results have profound implications both for rational choice modelling and for welfare economics.

The Objects of Credence grew from a simple insight, which is that credence claims are opaque (or ‘hyperintensional’). This central idea can be illustrated using the following example:

1. (1) Tom has a high credence that George Orwell is a writer.

2. (2) Tom has a low credence that Eric Blair is a writer.

The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) reviewed 109 cases of healthcare personnel (HCP) with laboratory-confirmed mpox to understand transmission risk in healthcare settings. Overall, 90% of HCP with mpox had nonoccupational exposure risk factors. One occupationally acquired case was associated with sharps injury while unroofing a patient’s lesion for diagnostic testing.

In October 2022 the Church of England commissioned an examination of the impact of the debate on same-sex blessing and same-sex marriage within other Anglican Churches. The examination involved a literature search, an original survey among key informers and a general internet search. This paper draws on the general internet search to contrast the impacts in New Zealand and Australia. Drawing on Jungian psychological type theory, this analysis employs the contrasting decision-making functions of feeling (concerned with subjective interpersonal values) and thinking (concerned with objective logical analysis). The data suggest that the feeling approach dominant in New Zealand, which prioritized offering space and time for those of differing opinions to meet together, reported more positive outcomes than the thinking approach dominant in Australia, which gave greater priority to adversarial debate.

We present a data-driven emulator, a stochastic weather generator (SWG), suitable for estimating probabilities of prolonged heat waves in France and Scandinavia. This emulator is based on the method of analogs of circulation to which we add temperature and soil moisture as predictor fields. We train the emulator on an intermediate complexity climate model run and show that it is capable of predicting conditional probabilities (forecasting) of heat waves out of sample. Special attention is payed that this prediction is evaluated using a proper score appropriate for rare events. To accelerate the computation of analogs, dimensionality reduction techniques are applied and the performance is evaluated. The probabilistic prediction achieved with SWG is compared with the one achieved with a convolutional neural network (CNN). With the availability of hundreds of years of training data, CNNs perform better at the task of probabilistic prediction. In addition, we show that the SWG emulator trained on 80 years of data is capable of estimating extreme return times of order of thousands of years for heat waves longer than several days more precisely than the fit based on generalized extreme value distribution. Finally, the quality of its synthetic extreme teleconnection patterns obtained with SWG is studied. We showcase two examples of such synthetic teleconnection patterns for heat waves in France and Scandinavia that compare favorably to the very long climate model control run.

When scholars have compared “African traditional religion” and “Western science,” they have often treated the terms of this comparison as racialized unitary entities, which are either radically different or somewhat similar (even as Western categories of rationality or nature remain the basis for these comparisons). This essay unsettles these assumptions by focusing on practices that are called “science” in the fields of both petroleum geology and Afro-Caribbean religion. Based on long-term ethnographic research in Trinidad, arguably the world’s oldest site of commercial oil extraction, I show how internal differences between those involved in “petroleum science” and “African religion” reveal a spectrum of meanings for the word “science” centered on relations to risk. At one end of this spectrum, science conveyed ideals of stable tradition that de-risked claims to knowledge for energy sector specialists intent on securing foreign investment or for “Yorubacentric” lineages of African religion centering initiation-based authority. At this spectrum’s other end, “science” foregrounded the risks of accessing hard-to-perceive forces in petroleum exploration or “spiritual work.” By focusing on heterogeneous practices rather than cultural essences or ideals of rationality, I show how the ethical implications of “science” depend on differing experiences of the risks of working with subterranean powers. While petroleum surveys at my field site in Trinidad required embodied risks by laborers, geologists backgrounded these contexts of power, representing the risks of their work as a problem of scientific accuracy. Afro-Trinidadian spiritual workers, in contrast, foregrounded the embodied risks of science as the ground of ethical practice.

Large-amplitude current-driven plasma instabilities, which can transition to the Buneman instability, were observed in one-dimensional simulations to generate high-energy back-streaming ions. We investigate the saturation of multi-dimensional plasma instabilities and its effects on energetic ion formation. Such ions directly impact spacecraft thruster lifetimes and are associated with magnetic reconnection and cosmic ray inception. An Eulerian Vlasov–Poisson solver employing the grid-based direct kinetic method is used to study the growth and saturation of 2D2V collisionless, electrostatic current-driven instabilities spanning two dimensions each in the configuration (D) and velocity (V) spaces supporting ion and electron phase-space transport. Four stages characterise the electric potential evolution in such instabilities: linear modal growth, harmonic growth, accelerated growth via quasi-linear mechanisms alongside nonlinear fill-in and saturated turbulence. Its transition and isotropisation process bears considerable similarities to the development of hydrodynamic turbulence. While a tendency to isotropy is observed in the plasma waves, followed by electron and then ion phase spaces after several ion-acoustic periods, the formation of energetic back-streaming ions is more limited in the 2D2V than in the 1D1V simulations. Plasma waves formed by two-dimensional electrostatic kinetic instabilities can propagate in the direction perpendicular to the net electron drift. Thus, large-amplitude multi-dimensional waves generate high-energy transverse-streaming ions and eventually limit energetic backward-streaming ions along the longitudinal direction. The multi-dimensional study sheds light on interactions between longitudinal and transverse electrostatic plasma instabilities, as well as fundamental characteristics of the inception and sustenance of unmagnetised plasma turbulence.

Tappe Takhchar-Abad, near Birjand in south Khorasan, is a recently discovered and excavated almost circular adobe building with six towers, dating to the Achaemenid period. This article suggests that the architectural tradition of circular buildings and sites in the late Iron Age/Achaemenid period, in Greater Khorasan, apparently originated from Bactria in which most such sites have been reported.

In this work, we present a pair of tools to improve the fiducial tracking and reconstruction quality of cryo-scanning transmission electron tomography (STET) datasets. We then demonstrate the effectiveness of these two tools on experimental cryo-STET data. The first tool, GoldDigger, improves the tracking of fiducials in cryo-STET by accommodating the changed appearance of highly defocussed fiducial markers. Since defocus effects are much stronger in scanning transmission electron microscopy than in conventional transmission electron microscopy, existing alignment tools do not perform well without manual intervention. The second tool, Checkers, combines image inpainting and unsupervised deep learning for denoising tomograms. Existing tools for denoising cryo-tomography often rely on paired noisy image frames, which are unavailable in cryo-STET datasets, necessitating a new approach. Finally, we make the two software tools freely available for the cryo-STET community.

Many are now discussing the possible demise of the so called ‘liberal international order’, but how can we know whether any international order is changing? This article argues for understanding order as maintained by institutions of international society and further theorises the role those institutions play in the stability or transformation of international order. To usefully put institutional analysis to work, this article, first, models the stylised evolution of a primary institution. Second, it illustrates this evolution with a discussion of the historical institution of trusteeship in order to historicise adaptation and transformation in international order. Finally, this leads to a generalised idea of how institutional analysis can be employed to study stability and transformation in international order. Beyond making a contribution to the wider debates about the possible demise of the current international order, this piece also fills a gap in English School theory, which is quite silent on the question of when international society furthers transformation, and when it furthers stability. Accepting the view of history that the future is contingent on today’s events, this study suggests possible points where push comes to shove for change and continuity in international order more generally.