Much historical yield-monitor data is from fields where a uniform rate of nitrogen was applied. A new approach is proposed using this data to get site-specific nitrogen recommendations. Bayesian methods are used to estimate a linear plateau model where only the plateau is spatially varying. The model is then illustrated by using it to make site-specific nitrogen recommendations for corn production in Mississippi. The in-sample recommendations generated by this approach return an estimated $9/acre on the example field. The long-term goal is to combine this information with other information such as remote sensing measurements.

Although South Africa accounts for half of the alternative meat market for the African continent, there remains a lack of information about consumer demand for plant-based and lab-cultured meat and its market potential domestically. This study reports the results of a nationwide survey of 649 South African consumers who completed a choice experiment in which they selected among conventional beef and three alternative burger patties at varying prices. Results indicate that holding prices constant and conditional on choosing a food product, 21% of the market share was estimated for plant-based meat alternatives and 38% for lab-cultured meat.

The United States has a long history of providing ad hoc disaster assistance to agricultural producers. The latest version – the Emergency Relief Program (ERP) – follows five consecutive years of appropriations for disaster assistance. In response to ongoing appropriations, there is growing interest in establishing a permanent disaster program. However, with that comes concerns over the impact it could have on the existing farm safety net, particularly crop insurance. In this paper, we characterize the likely effects on crop insurance coverage levels of a permanent authorization of ERP. We assume that corn and soybean producers choose a coverage level based on the effects of that choice on the distribution of future ending wealth reflecting crop revenue, insurance indemnities, and ERP payments. We find very modest effects on crop insurance coverage level choices and crop insurance premiums collected.

We estimate the relationship between farm animal welfare (FAW) efforts taken by beef farmers and the economic performance of beef farms by using farm accounting data from the Swedish Farm Economic Survey matched with survey data on farm management practices. To this end, we perform a two-step analysis. First, an item response theory (IRT) model estimates the latent FAW effort on farms. FAW effort likely depends on a host of complementary FAW-improving strategies, and the IRT model combines the considered strategies into a unidimensional scale. We take this to represent on-farm FAW effort. Second, we use instrumental variable regressions to estimate the relationship between FAW effort and multiple measures of farm economic performance. We find that higher FAW effort scores have no effect on margins and costs. However, higher FAW effort scores are associated with lower farm sales. Findings suggest that policies (such as targeted label for high FAW) that increase farm revenue as well as incentivize the uptake of FAW-improvement practices may be able to compensate farmers for their FAW effort.

Agritourism and direct-to-consumer sales are increasingly used as diversification strategies to generate additional farm revenue streams. Yet despite their growing importance, the impacts, interactions, and adoption of these strategies remain poorly understood. Here we use univariate and bivariate local Moran’s I statistics to identify agritourism and direct-to-consumer sales hotspots in the United States and a Seemingly-Unrelated-Regression Spatial Durbin Model to examine the association between agritourism and direct farm sales to consumers. We find that agritourism and direct sales reinforce each other within the same county but not consistently across neighboring counties.

Rice is a staple crop in Nigeria. Even with a push to increase domestic production, little is known about the functionality of Nigeria’s open bag markets and the preferences of consumers for specific rice attributes. Our study uses a hedonic price model to identify quality attribute preferences of consumers and potential market failures. Our results indicate that Nigerian consumers prefer rice with homogenous long slender kernels and a low presence of broken rice and are indifferent to chalkiness. The findings are useful as they can inform future strategies for rice breeders, domestic policy makers, and rice exporters.

Cattle feed yards routinely track and collect data for individual calves throughout the feeding period. Using such operational data from nine U.S. feed yards for the years 2016–2019, we evaluated the scalability and economic viability of using machine learning classifier predicted mortality as a culling decision aid. The expected change in net return per head when using the classifier predictions as a culling aid as compared to the status quo culling protocol for calves having been pulled at least once for bovine respiratory disease was simulated. This simulated change in net return ranged from −$1.61 to $19.46/head. Average change in net return and standard deviation for the nine feed yards in this study was $6.31/head and $7.75/head, respectively.

In the context of climate change and increasing occurrences of extreme events, it is essential to understand farmers' responses to weather shocks and adaptations. This paper uses a panel dataset of 311 selected Indian districts ranging from 1966 to 2009 to investigate how application of chemical fertilizers varies in response to rainfall shocks. Two rainfall shock measures are constructed based on deviation in rainfall from the normal, a categorical measure of rainfall shock; and another, a continuous index of negative rainfall deviation. Based on a panel fixed effect regression, the study finds no apparent reduction in the level of fertilizer use in negative rainfall shock years. However, with a one-year lagged rainfall shock, a reduction in fertilizer application rate is observed for the continuous drought index. Further, exposure to higher intensity droughts in the previous year leads to an increase in the amount of fertilizer application in the current year.

Discrete choice experiments are used to collect data that facilitates measurement and understanding of consumer preferences. A sample of 750 respondents was employed to evaluate a new method of best-worst scaling data collection. This new method decreased the number of attributes and questions while discerning preferences for a larger set of attributes through self-stated preference “filter” questions. The new best-worst method resulted in overall equivalent rates of transitivity violations and lower incidences of attribute non-attendance than standard best-worst scaling designs. The new method of best-worst scaling data collection can be successfully employed to efficiently evaluate more attributes while improving data quality.

The growing prevalence of clean energy raises the question of possible associated externalities. This article studies the effects of nuclear power plant development (and, as a result, the increased amount of water in the atmosphere from evaporative cooling systems) on nearby crop yields and finds that an average nuclear power plant increases local soybean yields by 2 and corn yields by 1 percent. Considering the low elasticity of demand for these crops, the yield increases translate to annual net benefits of $229 million (2020 US dollars) – $317 million in losses to farmers and $546 million in benefits to consumers.

Nigeria has experienced bouts of violent conflict in different regions since its independence leading to significant loss of life. In this article, we explore the average effect of exposure to violent conflict generally on labor supply in agriculture. Using a nationally representative panel dataset for Nigeria from 2010 to 2015, in combination with armed conflict data, we estimate the average effect of exposure to violent conflict on a household's farm labor supply. Our findings suggest that on average, exposure to violent conflict significantly reduces total family labor supply hours in agriculture. We also find that the decline in family labor supply is driven by a significant decline in the household head's total number of hours on the farm.

This study explores how higher temperatures influence corn yield response to planting density. Using 1990–2010 field trial data from Wisconsin and econometric models with a variety of specifications, we find that higher temperatures reduce the yield benefits of increasing planting density. However, these adverse high-temperature effects are smaller for genetically modified corn varieties, especially those with rootworm-resistant traits. Consistent with previous studies, these results support the notion that varietal improvements through genetic modification may have paved the way for higher planting densities in US corn production. Moreover, our results imply that expected in-season temperatures are important considerations when making planting density decisions.

In this article, we discuss whether there was a single Latin American pattern of agricultural growth between 1950 and 2008. We analyse the sources of growth of agricultural production and productivity in ten Latin American countries. Our results show that the differences between these countries are too large to establish a single pattern for this region. However, certain common trends may be observed, such as the growing importance of labour productivity as a component of agricultural production growth and the increasing relevance of total factor productivity as a component of agricultural labour productivity growth.

We use a sales database of farmers market vendors in the Washington, D.C., area to estimate how first half 2020 sales were impacted by the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. We use 2019 data as a counterfactual for sales that would have occurred in 2020 in the absence of COVID-19. For neighborhood weekend markets that were able to remain open during the pandemic, the change in 2020 average sales between the winter and spring is between 75% and 79% lower than in 2019. Other farmers markets, particularly weekday markets in business districts, experienced delayed openings or were closed for the entire year.

Stochastic plateau production functions provide improved fertilizer recommendations based on multi-year agronomic experiments where weather and other stochastic variables change over time. This research assesses the profitability of no-tillage corn production in northeastern Colorado and determines economically optimal nitrogen fertilizer rates. It also proposes an alternative parameterization of the linear response stochastic plateau model which provides a robustness check against traditional parameterizations. Results show the current use of nitrogen fertilizer in the area exceeds estimated economically optimal levels. This suggests that a reduction in nitrogen use could increase expected profits and simultaneously reduce environmental costs.

Drought events have critical impacts on agricultural production yet there is little consensus on how these should be measured and defined, with implications for drought research and policy. We develop a flexible rainfall-temperature drought index that captures all dry events and we classify these as Type 1 (above-average cooling degree days) and Type 2 droughts (below-average cooling degree days). Applied to a panel dataset of Indian districts over 1966–2009, Type 2 droughts are found to have negative marginal impacts comparable to those of Type 1 droughts. Irrigation more effectively reduces Type 2 drought-induced yield losses than Type 1 yield losses. Over time, Type 1 drought losses have declined while Type 2 losses have risen. Estimates of average yield losses due to Type 1 droughts are reduced by up to 27 per cent when Type 2 droughts are omitted. The associated ex-post economic costs in terms of rice production are underestimated by up to 124 per cent.

In this research, we analyze the economic effects across various crop insurance subsidy and policy scenarios to determine producer insurance choice response, total premium and subsidy payments and study their economic implications on dryland corn, soybean, and winter wheat producers. We rely on the expected utility maximization framework to rank policy combination sets that are available to a typical producer to analyze the impacts of crop insurance subsidy changes and elimination of certain insurance policies across the three crops. Several scenarios were analyzed across subsidy and policy options and were found to have noticeably different farmer behavioral responses and economic implications.

Population growth and rising incomes have led to increasing global demand for meat products. Meeting this demand without converting remaining natural ecosystems or further degrading ecosystems is one of the largest global sustainability challenges. A critical step to overcoming this challenge is to increase the productivity of livestock grazing systems, which occupy the largest land area of any type of agriculture globally. Integrated crop−livestock systems (iCL), which re-couple crop and livestock production at the farm scale, have been considered a promising strategy to tackle this challenge by restoring degraded pasturelands and providing supplemental nutrition to livestock. However, few studies have analyzed the economic viability of such systems, especially in Brazil, an important player in global food systems. This paper presents an economic analysis of iCL in Mato Grosso, Brazil, the largest grain and beef producer in the country, which spans the ecologically diverse Amazon, Cerrado and Pantanal biomes. We compare the economic performance of an integrated soybean/corn and beef cattle system to a continuous crop (soybean/corn) system and a continuous livestock (beef cattle) production system from 2005 to 2012. We use empirical case study data to characterize a ‘typical’ farm for each production system within the study region. We find that the integrated crop−livestock system has a higher annual net present value (NPV) per hectare (ha) than continuous cropping or livestock under a range of discount rates. However, under a scenario of substantially higher crop prices, the continuous cropping outperforms iCL. While iCL is not feasible in all regions of the Amazon and Cerrado, our results indicate that in places where the biophysical and market conditions are suitable for production, it could be a highly profitable way to intensify cattle production and potentially spare land for other uses, including conservation. Nevertheless, additional credit and technical support may be needed to overcome high upfront costs and informational barriers to increase iCL areas as a sustainable development strategy for agriculture in the Amazon and Cerrado regions.

This study utilizes a dynamic programming decision model, considering an intertemporal nitrogen carryover function, combined with both linear stochastic and deterministic plateau response functions to evaluate optimal nitrogen fertilizer decision rules and net present values (NPVs) in Texas High Plains cotton production. Nitrogen recommendations and NPVs are influenced by response function choice and nitrogen-to-cotton price ratios. Results indicate the stochastic plateau function better describes the data; the optimum nitrogen recommendation is to apply approximately 40 lb. of nitrogen for each bale of cotton production when considering nitrogen carryover information.

This study connects Mexico’s imports of U.S. broiler meat with its imports of feed products. Two demand systems for Mexico are estimated: a two-stage Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model for broiler meat and a demand for feed derived from a translog cost function representing the production of Mexican chickens. The models are estimated using data from 1997 to 2016. Given a change in policy where Mexico completely replaces U.S. broiler meat imports, the imports of U.S. feed products will increase. If Mexico does not completely replace U.S. imports with domestic broiler production, our model suggests that Mexican imports of U.S. feed fall.