Though generated deep inside the convection zone, the solar magnetic field has a direct impact on the Earth space environment via the Parker spiral. It strongly modulates the solar wind in the whole heliosphere, especially its latitudinal and longitudinal speed distribution over the years. However the wind also influences the topology of the coronal magnetic field by opening the magnetic field lines in the coronal holes, which can affect the inner magnetic field of the star by altering the dynamo boundary conditions. This coupling is especially difficult to model because it covers a large variety of spatio-temporal scales. Quasi-static studies have begun to help us unveil how the dynamo-generated magnetic field shapes the wind, but the full interplay between the solar dynamo and the solar wind still eludes our understanding.

We use the compressible magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) code PLUTO to compute simultaneously in 2.5D the generation and evolution of magnetic field inside the star via an α-Ω dynamo process and the corresponding evolution of a polytropic coronal wind over several activity cycles for a young Sun. A multi-layered boundary condition at the surface of the star connects the inner and outer stellar layers, allowing both to adapt dynamically. Our continuously coupled dynamo-wind model allows us to characterize how the solar wind conditions change as a function of the cycle phase, and also to quantify the evolution of integrated quantities such as the Alfvén radius. We further assess the impact of the solar wind on the dynamo itself by comparing our results with and without wind feedback.

In this report we present an attempt to find a characteristic set of the space weather parameters allowed to identify the dominant physical connections. This study is based on the data of vertical and oblique sounding of the ionosphere in 2015-2016.

The opportunity of development the short-term forecasting technique of geoeffective solar flares is presented in this study. This technique is based on the effect of growth the fluctuations of horizontal component of geomagnetic field before the solar proton flares, that is considered as a prognostic parameter of solar proton flares.

The main aim of this work is to study the frequency of extreme Space Weather events, in particular to analyse the tails of the daily averaged electron fluxes distribution function for different channels of energy between 0.249–1.192 MeV measured at ~ 600 km of altitude with the particle detector ICARE-NG/CARMEN-1 on board argentinian polar satellite SAC-D. An extreme value theory was applied to estimate the maximum values of the electron flux in the outer radiation belt for different return levels. We found that the cumulative distribution function of the extreme electron fluxes presents a finite upper limit in (1) the core of the outer radiation belt for the lower energy channels and (2) in the inner edge of the outer radiation belt for energy channels larger than 0.653 keV. The results presented in this work are important to characterise Space Weather conditions.

We have investigated the case of a coronal mass ejection that was eroded by the fast wind of a coronal hole in the interplanetary medium. When a solar ejection takes place close to a coronal hole, the flux rope magnetic topology of the coronal mass ejection (CME) may become misshapen at 1 AU as a result of the interaction. Detailed analysis of this event reveals erosion of the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) magnetic field. In this communication, we study the photospheric magnetic roots of the coronal hole and the coronal mass ejection area with HMI/SDO magnetograms to define their magnetic characteristics.

The sunspot number data during the past 400 years indicates that both the profile and the amplitude of the solar cycle have large variations. Some precursors of the solar cycle were identified aiming to predict the solar cycle. The polar field and the geomagnetic index are two precursors which are received the most attention. The geomagnetic variations during the solar minima are potentially caused by the solar polar field by the connection of the solar open flux. The robust prediction skill of the polar field indicates that the memory of the dynamo process is less than 11 yrs based on the frame of the Babcock-Leighton flux transport dynamo. One possible reason to get the short magnetic memory is the high magnetic diffusivity in the convective zone. Our recent studies show that the radial downward pumping is another possible reason. Based upon the mechanism, we well simulate the cycle irregularities during RGO time period. This opens the possibility to set up a standard dynamo based model to predict the solar cycle. In the end, the no correlation between the polar field and the preceding cycle strength due to two nonlinearities involved in the sunspot emergence will be stressed.

In this review we discuss the occurrence and statistical properties of Grand minima based on the available data covering the last millennia. In particular, we consider the historical record of sunspot numbers covering the last 400 years as well as records of cosmogenic isotopes in natural terrestrial archives, used to reconstruct solar activity for up to the last 11.5 millennia, i.e. throughout the Holocene. Using a reconstruction of solar activity from cosmogenic isotope data, we analyze statistics of the occurrence of Grand minima. We find that: the Sun spends about most of the time at moderate activity, 1/6 in a Grand minimum and some time also in a Grand maximum state; Occurrence of Grand minima is not a result of long-term cyclic variations but is defined by stochastic/chaotic processes; There is a tendency for Grand minima to cluster with the recurrence rate of roughly 2000-3000 years, with a weak ≈210-yr periodicity existing within the clusters. Grand minima occur of two different types: shorter than 100 years (Maunder-type) and long ≈150 years (Spörer-type). It is also discussed that solar cycles (most possibly not sunspots cycle) could exist during the Grand minima, perhaps with stretched length and asymmetric sunspot latitudinal distribution.

These results set new observational constraints on long-term solar and stellar dynamo models.

In this study we analyse the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) directed towards the Earth during the interval 2007–2010, using the data acquired by STEREO mission and those provided by SOHO, ACE and geomagnetic stations. A study of CMEs kinematics is performed. This is correlated with CMEs interplanetary manifestations and their geomagnetic effects, along with the energy transfer flux into magnetosphere (the Akasofu coupling function). The chosen interval that is practically coincident with the last solar minimum, offered us a good opportunity to link and analyse the chain of phenomena from the Sun to the terrestrial magnetosphere in an attempt to better understand the solar and heliospheric processes that can cause major geomagnetic storms.

The Whole Heliosphere Interval is an international observing and modeling effort to characterize the three-dimensional interconnected solar-heliospheric-planetary system, i.e., the “heliophysical” system. WHI was part of the International Heliophysical Year, on the 50th anniversary of the International Geophysical Year, and benefited from hundreds of observatories and instruments participating in IHY activities. WHI describes the 3-D heliosphere originating from solar Carrington Rotation 2068, March 20–April 16, 2008. The focus of IAU JD16 was on analyses of observations obtained during WHI, and simulations and modeling involving those data and that period. Consideration of the WHI interval in the context of surrounding solar rotations and/or compared to last solar minimum was also encouraged. Our goal was to identify connections and commonalities between the various regions of the heliosphere.

We present a summary of results from simultaneous Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (STELab) Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS), STEREO, ACE, and Wind observations using three-dimensional reconstructions of the Whole Heliosphere Interval – Carrington rotation 2068. This is part of the world-wide IPS community's International Heliosphysical Year (IHY) collaboration. We show the global structure of the inner heliosphere and how our 3-D reconstructions compare with in-ecliptic spacecraft measurements.

In this work we describe the method and results of precise solar astrometry made with the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), during one complete solar cycle. We measured an upper limit to the solar radius variation, the absolute solar radius value and the solar shape. Our results are 22 mas peak-to-peak upper limit for the solar radius variation over the solar cycle, the absolute radius was measured as 959.28 ± 0.15 arcsec at 1 AU and the difference between polar and equatorial solar radii in 1997 was 5 km and about three times larger in 2001.

Dynamics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is strongly affected by the interaction of the erupting structure with the ambient magnetoplasma: eruptions that are faster than solar wind transfer the momentum and energy to the wind and generally decelerate, whereas slower ones gain the momentum and accelerate. Such a behavior can be expressed in terms of “aerodynamic” drag. We employ a large sample of CMEs to analyze the relationship between kinematics of CMEs and drag-related parameters, such as ambient solar wind speed and the CME mass. Employing coronagraphic observations it is demonstrated that massive CMEs are less affected by the aerodynamic drag than light ones. On the other hand, in situ measurements are used to inspect the role of the solar wind speed and it is shown that the Sun-Earth transit time is more closely related to the wind speed than to take-off speed of CMEs. These findings are interpreted by analyzing solutions of a simple equation of motion based on the standard form for the drag acceleration. The results show that most of the acceleration/deceleration of CMEs on their way through the interplanetary space takes place close to the Sun, where the ambient plasma density is still high. Implications for the space weather forecasting of CME arrival-times are discussed.

We study the geoeffectiveness of a sample of complex events; each includes a coronal type II burst, accompanied by a GOES SXR flare and LASCO CME. The radio bursts were recorded by the ARTEMIS-IV radio spectrograph, in the 100-650 MHz range; the GOES SXR flares and SOHO/LASCO CMEs, were obtained from the Solar Geophysical Data (SGD) and the LASCO catalogue respectively. These are compared with changes of solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices in order to establish a relationship between solar energetic events and their effects on geomagnetic activity.

The Sun plays a dominant role as the gravity centre and the energy source of a planetary system. A simple estimate shows that it is mainly the distance from the Sun that determines the climate of a planet. The solar electromagnetic radiation received by a planet is very unevenly distributed on the dayside of the planet. The climate tries to equilibrate the system by transporting energy through the atmosphere and the oceans provided they exist. These quasi steady state conditions are continuously disturbed by a variety of processes and effects. Potential causes of disturbance on the Sun are the energy generation in the core, the energy transport trough the convection zone, and the energy emission from the photosphere. Well understood are the effects of the orbital parameters responsible for the total amount of solar power received by a planet and its relative distribution on the planet's surface. On a planet, many factors determine how much of the arriving energy enters the climate system and how it is distributed and ultimately reemitted back into space. On Earth, there is growing evidence that in the past solar variability played a significant role in climate change.

We analyzed the relationship between the ground-based modulation of cosmic rays (CR) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs). Daily averaged data from 8 different neutron monitor (NM) stations were used, covering rigidities from Rc = 0 − 12.91 GeV. The in situ solar wind data were taken from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) database, whereas the coronal hole (CH) areas were derived from the Solar X-Ray Imager onboard GOES-12. For the analysis we have chosen a period in the declining phase of solar cycle 23, covering the period 25 January–5 May 2005. During the CIR periods CR decreased typically from 0.5% to 2%. A cross-correlation analysis showed a distinct anti-correlation between the magnetic field and CR, with the correlation coefficient (r) ranging from −0.31 to −0.38 (mean: −0.36) and with the CR time delay of 2 to 3 days. Similar anti-correlations were found for the solar wind density and velocity characterized by the CR time lag of 4 and 1 day, respectively. The relationship was also established between the CR modulation and the area of the CIR-related CH with the CR time lag of 5 days after the central-meridian passage of CH.

The Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) was launched into a Sun-synchronous orbit in January 2003. Its mission objective is to detect and track coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun in order to improve space weather forecasts. In the three years since launch, over 200 CMEs, about 30 of which were Earth-directed, have been observed by SMEI. We have been able to track several of these CMEs from the SOHO LASCO coronagraphs ($<$8$^\circ$ from the Sun) through the SMEI field of view ($>$20$^\circ$) out to 0.5 AU and beyond, and to observe the morphology and evolution of distinctive features over this wide distance range. We report on comparisons of measurements of CME parameters made in the inner heliosphere with the more typical measurements made nearer the Sun with coronagraphs. We illustrate SMEI's capabilities and present key statistical results on basic CME parameters and the use of SMEI-type data in space weather forecasting models. For example, timely observations by SMEI of CMEs en route to Earth could be input to DoD's operational Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry solar wind model to correct or refine its real-time forecasts of approaching disturbances.

The structure and evolution of the sources of solar activity directly affects the nature of space weather disturbances that reach the Earth. We have previously demonstrated that the loss of equilibrium and partial ejection of a coronal magnetic flux rope matches observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their precursors.In this paper we discuss the significance of such a partially-ejected rope for space weather. We will consider how the evolution and bifurcation of the rope modifies it from its initial, source configuration. In particular, we will consider how reconnections and writhing motions lead to an escaping rope which has an axis rotated counterclockwise from the original rope axis orientation, and which is rooted in transient coronal holes external to the original source region.