Preliminary results of distinguishing solar filaments on daily observation data at the Hα spectral line of the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory (1912-2002) are presented.

To distinguish the boundaries of solar filaments, methods have been developed, based on automatic procedures for distinguishing low-contrast objects on the solar disk as well as on editing the boundaries of selected structures in semi-automatic mode. An analysis of solar filaments’ characteristics has been performed. We are considered variation of the average tilt-angle and the radius of curvature of the filaments in 15-23 cycles of activity.

We live on a very special planet in a very special solar system. Our planet has a benign climate. Our star has several habitable planets and is not so active as to inhibit the exploration and future colonization of these planets. In this short paper we review how the solar wind interacts with the planets, what factors matter in this interaction, and how active is our star.

We use the principal component analysis to study geomagnetic activity at annual resolution using a network of 26 magnetic stations in 1966-2015, and an extended network of 40 stations in 1980-2015. The first principal component describes the long-term evolution of global geomagnetic activity, and has an excellent correlation with indices like the Kp/Ap index. The two networks give identical results for the first principal component. The second principal component is highly correlated with the annual percentage of high-speed streams (HSS). The extended network has a slightly higher sensitivity to HSSs. We verify the non-trivial latitudinal distribution of the second empirical orthogonal function. We find that the amplitude of the 22-year variation of geomagnetic activity has a closely similar latitudinal distribution as the second empirical orthogonal function. This verifies that the 22-year variation of geomagnetic activity is related to HSSs. The most likely cause is the Russell-McPherron mechanism.

The longitudinal distribution of solar active regions shows non-homogeneous spatial behaviour, which is often referred to as Active Longitude (AL). Evidence for a significant statistical relationships between the AL and the longitudinal distribution of flare and coronal mass ejections (CME) occurrences is found in Gyenge et al. 2017 (ApJ, 838, 18). The present work forecasts the spatial position of AL, hence the most flare/CME capable active regions are also predictable. Our forecast method applies Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model for the next 2 years time period. We estimated the dates when the solar flare/CME-capable longitudinal belts face towards Earth.

In 1612, Galileo Galilei made very accurate drawings of the solar disk. Currently, 47 of them are in the open access: 9 in May 3 – 11, 35 in June and July, and 3 in late August. Unfortunately, reports have not provided the clock time, which results in uncertainty of sunspots heliographic coordinates. In the present study, we determine the exact time of the drawings by comparing the positions of the same spots from day to day. The time of the observations, which varies from 12 to 16 UT, gives us the direction of the solar rotation axis and the position of the helioequator. Unlike the spots drawn by Christopher Scheiner in 1611 – 1612, none of the analyzed spots lies within the helioequator. This confirms the quality of the Galileo’s drawings.

The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) controls magnetospheric currents which cause variations of the ground-based magnetic field. Regular magnetic observations made in the 19th century allow us to infer daily IMF polarities back to 1844. The results coincide with satellite data in about 79% days. Moreover, for the most part of the 19th and 20th centuries, proxies obtained from various geomagnetic data (Helsinki, Saint-Petersburg, Potsdam, and Ekaterinburg) show the same patterns. This suggests that the reliability of the proxies is sufficient to study the IMF in the past. The large-scale organization of the IMF polarities, the so-called sector structure, reveals semi-centennial north-south displacements of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS).

By applying Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to solar magnetic synoptic maps in cycle 21-23 obtained with Wilcox Solar Observatory we derived analytical expressions for two principal components and their summary curve of solar magnetic field oscillations defined by dipole magnetic sources. In this paper we extrapolate backwards three millennia the summary curve describing solar activity and compare it with the relevant historic data. The extrapolated summary curve shows a remarkable resemblance to the sunspot and terrestrial activity reported in the past millennia: the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), Wolf minimum (1200), Oort minimum (1010-1050), Homer minimum (800-900 BC), the medieval warm period (900-1200), the Roman warm period (400-10BC). We note that Sporer minimum (1460-1550) derived from the increased abundance of isotope Δ14C is likely produced by a strong increase of galactic cosmic rays caused by a supernova Vela Junior occurred in the Southern hemisphere.

We describe existing research infrastructures relevant for space weather and open issues of space weather research including the need for sustainable observation networks and for high-quality data products as basis for model development. The local relevance in Europe for studies of the ionosphere at high latitude is described. We propose as possible a way forward to sustain space weather research in Europe to establish a European research infrastructure project for space weather research and observations.

At large distance scales, space exploration in the last decades has significantly helped in better locating the boundaries of the Heliosphere and outlining its shape as well as in probing the various plasma domains that separate the inner heliospheric region from the interstellar one. At shorter distance scales, a fleet of spacecraft has been probing the outer and inner Solar System plasma with a high level of detail.

This monitoring, complemented by space- and ground-based observations of processes relevant to the Heliosphere, has pointed out a series both of intrinsic and extrinsic perturbations that characterise the physical state of heliospheric plasmas both at small and large spatial scales and on short and long temporal scales.

By means of concept maps that schematise the association among concepts, in this work we will present a new domain ontology for the definition and characterisation of Heliospheric Weather and Climate.

Radiation environment of near-Earth space is one of the most important factors of space weather. Space Monitoring Data Center of Moscow State University provides operational monitor and forecast of radiation conditions both at Geostationary Orbits (GEO) and at Low Earths Orbits (LEO) of the near-Earth space using data of recent space missions (Vernov, CORONAS series) and current (Lomonosov, Meteor-M, Electro-L) ones. Internet portal of Space Monitoring Data Center of Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics of Lomonosov Moscow State University (SINP MSU - [swx.sinp.msu.ru]) provides possibilities to monitor and analyze the space radiation conditions in the real time mode together with the geomagnetic and solar activity including hard X-ray and gamma-emission of solar flares.

Early Warning of Space Weather phenomena is one of the most important products produced by Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX). The aim is to deliver a verified warning to Mexican National Center for Disaster Prevention (CENAPRED) as well as to general public in near-real time automatically. First, the international pubic warning (or alert) is produced by Space Weather Prediction Center of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S.A. Further, the alert is received by SCiESMEX system, decodified, translated in Spanish and put in the context of local current conditions. The alerts are transformed and validated in agreement to Mexican policies of civil protection and CENAPRED protocols. The automatic system segments the information and delivers the corresponding web- page-alerts, emails, twits, facebook messages and SMS. The latency of the alert is 5 minutes. The code is running since January of 2015 without major interruptions.

It is well known that the energy for solar eruptions comes from magnetic fields in solar active regions. Magnetic energy storage and dissipation are regarded as important physical processes in the solar corona. With incomplete theoretical modeling for eruptions in the solar atmosphere, activity forecasting is mainly supported with statistical models. Solar observations with high temporal and spatial resolution continuously from space well describe the evolution of activities in the solar atmosphere, and combined with three dimensional reconstruction of solar magnetic fields, makes numerical short-term (within hours to days) solar activity forecasting possible. In the current report, we propose the erupting frequency and main attack direction of solar eruptions as new forecasts and present the prospects for numerical short-term solar activity forecasting based on the magnetic topological framework in solar active regions.

The largest solar flares, of class X and above, are often associated with strong energetic particle acceleration. Based on the self-similar distribution of solar flares, self-organized criticality models such as sandpiles can be used to successfully reproduce their statistics. However, predicting strong (and rare) solar flares turns out to be a significant challenge. We build here on an original idea based on the combination of minimalistic flare models (sandpiles) and modern data assimilation techniques (4DVar) to predict large solar flares. We discuss how to represent a sandpile model over a reduced set of eigenfunctions to improve the efficiency of the data assimilation technique. This improvement is model-independent and continues to pave the way towards efficient near real-time solutions for predicting solar flares.

Advanced forecasting of space weather requires prediction of near-Earth solar-wind conditions on the basis of remote solar observations. This is typically achieved using numerical magnetohydrodynamic models initiated by photospheric magnetic field observations. The accuracy of such forecasts is being continually improved through better numerics, better determination of the boundary conditions and better representation of the underlying physical processes. Thus it is not unreasonable to conclude that simple, empirical solar-wind forecasts have been rendered obsolete. However, empirical models arguably have more to contribute now than ever before. In addition to providing quick, cheap, independent forecasts, simple empirical models aid in numerical model validation and verification, and add value to numerical model forecasts through parameterization, uncertainty estimation and ‘downscaling’ of sub-grid processes.

We report on a technique to construct a flux rope (FR) from eruption data at the Sun. The technique involves line-of-sight magnetic fields, post-eruption arcades in the corona, and white-light coronal mass ejections (CMEs) so that the FR geometric and magnetic properties can be fully defined in addition to the kinematic properties. We refer to this FR as FRED (Flux Rope from Eruption Data). We illustrate the FRED construction using the 2012 July 12 eruption and compare the coronal and interplanetary properties of the FR. The results indicate that the FRED input should help make realistic predictions of the components of the FR magnetic field in the heliosphere.

One view of major Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events is that these (proton-dominated) fluxes are accelerated in heliospheric shock sources created by Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs), and then travel mainly along interplanetary magnetic field lines connecting the shock(s) to the observer(s). This places a particular emphasis on the role of the heliospheric conditions during the event, requiring a realistic description of the latter to interpret and/or model SEP events. The well-known ENLIL heliospheric simulation with cone model generated ICME shocks is used together with the SEPMOD particle event modeling scheme to demonstrate the value of applying these concepts at multiple inner heliosphere sites.

Modelling of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) is usually carried out by means of the 1D focused transport equation and the same approach is adopted within several SEP Space Weather forecasting frameworks. We present an alternative approach, based on test particle simulations, which naturally describes 3D particle propagation. The SPARX forecasting system is an example of how test particle simulations can be used in real time in a Space Weather context. SPARX is currently operational within the COMESEP Alert System. The performance of the system, which is triggered by detection of a solar flare of class >M1.0 is evaluated by comparing forecasts for flare events between 1997 and 2017 with actual SEP data from the GOES spacecraft.

Emanating from coronals holes (CHs), high speed streams (HSSs) cause recurrent geomagnetic disturbances in the Earth’s magnetosphere. For this reason being able to predict the occurrence and timing of the high speed solar wind is one of the more important issues in space weather forecasting. Currently, it is still difficult to estimate the effect of a CH in case that it extends from high latitudes to lower ones. To monitor the global solar wind condition we have therefore developed a three-dimensional MHD simulation code, the REProduce Plasma Universe (REPPU) code, that is driven by the solar magnetic field from the solar surface to 1AU. The connectivity of magnetic field lines from CHs to Earth’s orbit via HSSs has been investigated. Simulation results are presented and the usefulness of our model is discussed.

The heliospheric modulation model HelMod solves the transport-equation for Galactic Cosmic Ray propagation through the heliosphere down to Earth. It is based on a 2-D Monte Carlo approach that includes a general description of the symmetric and antisymmetric parts of the diffusion tensor, thus properly treating the particle drift effects as well as convection within the solar wind and adiabatic energy loss. The model was tuned in order to fit 1) the data observed outside the ecliptic plane at several distances from the Earth and 2) the spectra observed near the Earth for both, high and low solar activity periods. Great importance was given to description of polar regions of the heliosphere. We present the flux for protons, antiprotons and helium nuclei computed for solar cycle 23-24 in comparison with experimental observations and prediction for the full solar cycle 24.

Space weather encompasses understanding how the near-space environment responds to forces from lower-atmosphere weather systems as well as conditions on the Sun. Although the specific effects of space weather (including power grid failures, communication outages, and navigation errors when using space-based navigation systems such as GPS) are local in nature, understanding and predicting their occurrence requires a global view of the environment. Here we initiated a first attempt to link one solar event which occurred on 2014 February 25, and affected the Earth’s upper atmosphere.