As the formal methods of proving correctness of a computer program are still very inadequate, in practice when a new piece of software is developed and all obvious errors are removed, it is tested with different (random) inputs in order to detect the remaining errors and assess its quality. We suppose that whenever the program fails the error causing the failure can be detected and removed correctly. Thus, the quality of the software increases as testing goes on. In this paper, we consider two different models and present the minimum variance unbiased estimators of the expected failure rate of the revised software at any time of testing t, based on the data generated up to that point.

We study an optimal stopping problem for a nonhomogeneous Markov process, with a reward function that is lower semicontinuous everywhere and smooth in certain regions. We prove that the payoff (value function) is lower semicontinuous as well and solves a so-called generalized Stefan problem in each of these regions. We provide some results for the geometry of the “stopping observations” set. Our results generalize those in Bassan, Brezzi, and Scarsini (1996). The problem we consider stems from an economic model in which several self-interested agents desire information, whereas a social planner, although benevolent toward the agents, might decide to withhold information in order to induce diversification in their behavior.

A service center is a facility with multiple heterogeneous servers providing specialized service to multiple types of customers. An assignment policy specifies which server is enabled to serve which types of customer, and a routing policy specifies which server a customer will be routed to for service. Thus, a server can be enabled to serve many types of customer, and a customer may have many alternate servers who can serve him. This paper aims to provide decision models to determine optimal static assignment and routing policies, explicitly taking into account the stochastic fluctuations of demand along with the autocorrelations and cross-correlations of the different traffic streams. We consider several possible performance measures and formulate the optimization problem as a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem. We also develop an efficient heuristic algorithm to enhance scalability. Finally, we compare the different policies using the heuristic algorithms. We observe numerically that the routing policy tries to combine the negatively correlated traffic streams, and separate the positively correlated traffic streams.

We focus on Erol Gelenbe's scientific and technical contributions to probability models in the computer and information sciences, but limit our survey to the last fifteen years. We start with a brief overview of his work as a single author, as well as his work in collaboration with over 200 co-authors. We discuss some of his recent and innovative work regarding a new probability model that represents Intermittent Energy Sources for Computing and Communications, introducing Energy Packet Networks which are a probabilistic representation of the flow, storage and consumption of electrical energy at the microscopic level (in electronic chips), and at the macroscopic level (e.g. in buildings or data centers) and for its routing and dynamic usage by consuming units (such as computer elements, chips or machines). We next discuss his work on designing computer and communication systems that parsimoniously use energy in order to achieve a satisfactory level of quality of service (QoS). Trade-offs between system QoS and energy consumption are also considered. Then we turn to Prof. Gelenbe's pioneering work on Autonomic Communications and the design and implementation of CPN, the Cognitive Packet Network, and we also briefly review his spiking random neural network that was used in CPN. This is followed by a brief review of work that he conducted since 1999 on human evacuation from dangerous or catastrophic environments, and the design of technology driven Emergency Management Systems. His research since the late 2000s on Gene Regulatory Networks is then covered together with its application to the detecting possible disease from microarray data. Finally, we briefly discuss some novel analytical models that he developed in this period with publications appearing in journals of physics and applied mathematics.

Let $V_{(r,n,\tilde {m}_n,k)}^{(p)}$ and $W_{(r,n,\tilde {m}_n,k)}^{(p)}$ be the $p$-spacings of generalized order statistics based on absolutely continuous distribution functions $F$ and $G$, respectively. Imposing some conditions on $F$ and $G$ and assuming that $m_1=\cdots =m_{n-1}$, Hu and Zhuang (2006. Stochastic orderings between p-spacings of generalized order statistics from two samples. Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences 20: 475) established $V_{(r,n,\tilde {m}_n,k)}^{(p)} \leq _{{\rm hr}} W_{(r,n,\tilde {m}_n,k)}^{(p)}$ for $p=1$ and left the case $p\geq 2$ as an open problem. In this article, we not only resolve it but also give the result for unequal $m_i$'s. It is worth mentioning that this problem has not been proved even for ordinary order statistics so far.

The group-testing problem for a binomial set of items is considered. It is desired to classify all items as good or defective with a minimum expected number of group tests. An improvement over the information lower bound, via a weak concavity property, is made for the minimum expected number of group tests.

Recent advances in the mathematical analysis of flow control have prompted the creation of the Scalable TCP (STCP) and Exponential RED (E-RED) algorithms. These are designed to be scalable under the popular deterministic delay stability modeling framework. In this article, we analyze stochastic models of STCP and STCP combined with E-RED link behavior. We find that under certain plausible network conditions, these probabilistic models also exhibit scalable behavior. In particular, we derive parameter choice schemes for which the equilibrium coefficients of variation of flow rates are bounded, however large, fast, or complex the network. Our model is shown to exhibit behavior similar to the mean field convergence that has recently been observed in TCP.

Binary series-parallel (BSP) graphs have applications in transportation modeling, and exhibit interesting combinatorial properties. This work is limited to the second aspect. The BSP graphs of a given size – measured in edges – are enumerated. Under a uniform probability model, we investigate the asymptotic distribution of the order (number of vertices) and the asymptotic average length of a random walk (under different strategies) of large graphs of the same size. The systematic method throughout is to define the graphs, and the features we evaluate by a structural equation (equivalent to a regular expression). The structural equation is translated into an equation for a generating function, which is then analyzed.

We develop a new measure of reliability for the mean behavior of a process by calculating the probability the cumulative sample mean will stay within a given distance from the true mean over a period of time. This probability is derived using boundary-crossing properties of Brownian bridges. We derive finite sample results for independent and identically distributed normal data, limiting results for data meeting a functional central limit theorem, and draw parallels to standard normal confidence intervals. We deliver numerical results for i.i.d., dependent, and queueing processes.

Single-server queueing systems with mixed traffic are a flexible modeling tool that have been used to analyze polling systems and database striping strategies. They also have applications in manufacturing and telecommunication systems. Ordinary (open) customers arrive according to a Poisson process, receive service, and leave the system. Permanent (closed) customers remain in the system, reentering the queue after receiving service. This work examines the transient behavior of the permanent customers. The cycle times and output/departure process for the permanent customers are described.

We study a cumulative storage system that is totally cleared sporadically at stationary renewal times and whenever a finite-capacity threshold is exceeded. The independent and identically distributed inputs occur at time epochs that also form a stationary renewal process. We determine the distribution of the interoverflow times. Although this distribution is quite intricate when both underlying renewal processes are general, in the special case of Poisson sporadic clearings we obtain a neat formula for its Laplace transform.

This paper considers the customers’ equilibrium and socially optimal joining–balking behavior in a single-server Markovian queue with a single working vacation and Bernoulli interruptions. The model is motivated by practical service systems where the service rate can be adjusted according to whether or not the system is empty. Specifically, we focus on a single-server queue in which the server's service rate is reduced from a regular to a lower one when the system becomes empty. This lower rate period is called a working vacation for the server which may represent that part of the service facility is under a maintenance process or works on other non-queueing job, or simply for saving the energy (for a machine server case). In this paper, we assume that the working vacation period is terminated after a random period or with probability p after serving a customer in a non-empty system. Such a system is called a queue with single working vacation and Bernoulli interruptions. Customers are strategic and can make choice of joining or balking based on different levels of system information. We consider four scenarios: fully observable, almost observable, almost unobservable, and fully unobservable queue cases. Under a reward-cost structure, we analyze the customer's equilibrium and social-optimal strategies. In addition, the effects of system parameters on optimal strategies are illustrated by numerical examples.

In this paper, we propose a stochastic method to project the public pension fund in the public pension system (PPS). For this we introduce the stochastic differential equations for the three parts: the premium revenue, the benefit expenditure, and the fund process. From these we show that the solution of the aggregated fund process is the sum of log-normals, which is approximated as one log-normal for the analytic result. Related to the parameter estimations, we implement the moment matching in the first moment. For the second moment, we apply the extreme value method following Parkinson. In order to follow Parkinson, we take the maximum and the minimum range of the fund amount based on the various sensitivity result as well as the baseline one from the deterministic projection result. In this reason, it is naturally to maintain the close interrelation with the deterministic projection result, which is very important since it is still key result in the actuarial valuation of the PPS.

We consider a model in which each round consists of a sequence of games, with each game resulting in either a positive or a zero score. If a zero score occurs, then the current round is ended with no points being accumulated during that round. If a game ends with a positive score, then the player can either end that round or play another game in the round. If she elects to end the round, then the sum of all scores earned in games played during that round are added to her cumulative score and a new round begins.

Under the assumption that successive game scores are independent and identically distributed random variables whose conditional distribution, given that it is positive, is exponential, we consider this problem under such objectives as minimizing the expected number of rounds until a cumulative score exceeds a given goal g and maximizing the probability that a cumulative score of at least g is obtained by the end of round n. We present the model in the hypothetical context of a clinical trial of a treatment for reducing glycated hemoglobin in diabetic patients.

In this article a Markov chain for the distribution of single atoms is suggested and studied. We explore a recursive model for the number of atoms present in a magneto-optical trap under a feedback regime with a Poisson-distributed load. Formulas for the stationary distribution of this process are derived. They can be used to adjust the loading rate of atoms to maximize the proportion of time that a single atom spends in the trap. The (approximate) optimal regime for the Poisson loading and loss processes is found.

We consider a system consisting of a single server serving a fixed number of stations. At each station, there is an infinite queue of customers that have to undergo a preparation phase before being served. This model is connected to layered queueing networks, to an extension of polling systems and surprisingly to random graphs. We are interested in the waiting time of the server. For the case where the server polls the stations cyclically, we give a sufficient condition for the existence of a limiting waiting-time distribution and we study the tail behavior of the stationary waiting time. Furthermore, assuming that preparation times are exponentially distributed, we describe in depth the resulting Markov chain. We also investigate a model variation where the server does not necessarily poll the stations in a cyclic order, but always serves the customer with the earliest completed preparation phase. We show that the mean waiting time under this dynamic allocation never exceeds that of the cyclic case, but that the waiting-time distributions corresponding to both cases are not necessarily stochastically ordered. Finally, we provide extensive numerical results investigating and comparing the effect of the system's parameters to the performance of the server for both models.

We consider a semi-Markov additive process A(·)—that is, a Markov additive process for which the sojourn times in the various states have general (rather than exponential) distributions. Letting the Lévy processes Xi(·), which describe the evolution of A(·) while the background process is in state i, be increasing, it is shown how double transforms of the type can be computed. It turns out that these follow, for given nonnegative α and q, from a system of linear equations, which has a unique positive solution. Several extensions are considered as well.