This paper examines the effects of fiscal devaluations in a model of a monetary union characterized by national fiscal policies and supranational monetary policy. We show that a revenue-neutral permanent tax shift in one country, which raises its consumption tax to finance a cut to labor taxes, increases welfare of the monetary union in the long run. The distribution of gains among countries depends on their degree of financial integration. We also document that price rigidities result in short-run welfare costs.

Emerging economies that have adopted inflation targeting and that combine low credibility, high public debt, and a high interest rate suffer from a typical problem. Increases in the interest rate to reduce departures of inflation from the target imply that a higher primary surplus is required for stabilizing public debt/GDP ratio. This tricky situation is known as “unpleasant fiscal arithmetic” (UFA). This article develops a theoretical model showing how increased financial openness and capital account liberalization can mitigate UFA. Furthermore, empirical evidence from the Brazilian case through OLS, GMM, and GMM system methods is offered. The findings show that increases in capital mobility and financial openness work as a commitment technology, which contributes to the success of the inflation targeting and thus reduces the risk of UFA.

This paper examines the dynamic and desirable properties of monetary regimes in a remittances recipient economy, with emphasis on the effect on sectoral output and nontradable inflation dynamics. The findings indicate that under a fixed exchange rate regime, an increase in remittances creates increased demand for nontradable goods, and hence a rise in nontradable inflation, as well as expansion in output of nontradables. Under a nontradable inflation targeting regime, however, a decrease in nontradable inflation and an expansion in tradable goods production are observed following an increase in remittances. A near-zero nontradable inflation rate and managed variability in the nominal exchange rate typify the optimal monetary policy, suggesting that an inflation targeting regime is preferable to a fixed exchange regime under such a scenario. A VAR analysis shows that the dynamics of inflation in El Salvador and the Philippines is in consonance with those observed in the model under the fixed exchange rate and nontradable inflation targeting regimes, respectively.

This paper analyzes the effects of stronger intellectual property rights (IPR) protection in the South on innovation, imitation, the pattern of production, and wage inequality based on a North–South product-cycle model with foreign direct investment (FDI) and skills accumulation. This quality-ladder model features innovative R&D in the North and imitative R&D in the South. Two types of innovations are considered: innovation targeting all products and innovation targeting only imitated products. We find that for both types of innovations, strengthening IPR protection reduces the innovation rate and raises the imitation rate. There is also an increase in the proportion of Northern unskilled labor and a decrease in Northern wage inequality. As for the pattern of production, strengthening IPR protection may reduce the extent of FDI.

This paper analyzes the determination of public debt in a dynamic politico-economic model with overlapping generations. Sizeable levels of public debt can be rationalized in this model. The elasticity of substitution between public and private consumption determines the size of public debt and could explain differences of debt across countries. I compare the optimal policies under commitment and in a “political equilibrium” without commitment. Public debt can be higher or lower when commitment is absent, depending on the elasticity of substitution between public and private consumption. Consequently, under certain conditions, the no-commitment debt level can be closer to a normative benchmark with higher weight for future generations.

In a Markov switching framework, we show that the duration of recessions is significantly shorter than the duration of expansions in 11 manufacturing sectors, and in aggregate durables and manufacturing output. We find two leading indicators, consumer expectations and the term spread, act as important demand-driven forces behind asymmetry.

This paper replaces increasing product variety with quality upgrading in the Romer model [Romer, Paul M., Journal of Political Economy 98 (1990), S71–S102]. We show that the range of parameters for which a steady state exists can be divided into two subspaces with well-behaved comparative statics and saddle-point dynamics in one subspace, but with “perverse” comparative-statics properties and either equilibrium indeterminacy or instability in the other subspace. These results for the closed economy can also be used to characterize the dynamics of the M-country open-economy version of the model.

The choice between private and government provision of a productive public good like infrastructure (public capital) is examined in the context of an endogenously growing open economy. The accumulation of public capital need not require government provision, in contrast to the standard assumption in the literature. Even with an efficient government, the relative costs and benefits of government and private provision depend crucially on the economy's underlying structural conditions and borrowing constraints in international capital markets. Countries with limited substitution possibilities and large production externalities may benefit from governments encouraging private provision of public capital through targeted investment subsidies. By contrast, countries with flexible substitution possibilities and relatively smaller externalities may benefit either from governments directly providing public capital or from regulation of private providers. The transitional dynamics also are shown to depend on the underlying elasticity of substitution and the size of the production externality.

In this paper we study optimal policies in an environment where search frictions both in labor and goods markets give rise to unemployment and fiat money, as in Berentsen, Menzio, and Wright (American Economic Review, 2011). The underlying frictions that give rise to endogenous unemployment and fiat money also result in inefficient outcomes. Here we show that efficiency can be restored whenever lump sum monetary transfers are possible and a decentralized production subsidy financed by money printing and a vacancy subsidy financed by a dividend tax exist. This is the case even when the Hosios and Friedman rules do not hold.

An asset market segmentation model is constructed to study the distributional effects of monetary policy when economic individuals can choose means of payment among alternatives. In equilibrium, monetary policy has two distributional effects: a direct effect and an indirect effect through the choice of means of payment. When the government injects money, some purchase a greater variety of goods with cash whereas others purchase a greater variety of goods with credit. Credit can dampen fluctuations in consumption arising from monetary policy. The optimal money growth rate can be positive or negative. The Friedman rule is not optimal in general.

We use daily short-term interbank interest rates of France, the United Kingdom, and the United States to examine the dynamic links of international monetary markets from 2004 to 2009. Results from vector error-correction models and smooth-transition error-correction models show strong evidence of nonlinear and heterogeneous causalities between the three interest rates. We also find that changes in the U.S. interest rate deviations from the long-run equilibrium led those in France and in the United Kingdom by one to two days. Finally, the national interest rate nexus appears to converge in nonlinear fashion toward a steady state because it is subject to structural change beyond a certain rate threshold. Our findings have important implications for the actions of leading central banks (ECB, Bank of England, and U.S. Fed) because the joint behavior of short-term interest rates can be viewed as an indicator of the degree of central banks' policy interdependence.

This paper proposes a sunspot-based mechanism that quantitatively accounts for the main monetary facts. In particular, we propose a cash-in-advance model with habit persistence and local durability in consumption decisions. In this context, when habit persistence is strong enough, there is real indeterminacy. We show that when sunspots positively correlate with money injections, the model generates a persistent response of inflation, a hump-shaped response of output, and the price puzzle. We then apply the model to the U.S data and we show that it performs well in reproducing the monetary transmission mechanism and the price puzzle in the short run.

Consumption Euler equations are important tools in empirical macroeconomics. When estimated on micro data, they are typically linearized, so standard IV or GMM methods can be employed to deal with the measurement error that is endemic to survey data. However, linearization, in turn, may induce serious approximation bias. We numerically solve and simulate six different life-cycle models, and then use the simulated data as the basis for a series of Monte Carlo experiments in which we evaluate the performance of linearized Euler equation estimation. We sample from the simulated data in ways that mimic realistic data structures. The linearized Euler equation leads to biased estimates of the EIS, but that bias is modest when there is a sufficient time dimension to the data, and sufficient variation in interest rates. However, a sufficient time dimension can only realistically be achieved with a synthetic cohort. Estimates from synthetic cohorts of sufficient length, while often exhibiting small mean bias, are quite imprecise. We also show that in all data structures, estimates are less precise in impatient models.

The Hodrick–Prescott filter represents one of the most popular methods for trend–cycle extraction in macroeconomic time series. In this paper we provide a multivariate generalization of the Hodrick–Prescott filter, based on the seemingly unrelated time series approach. We first derive closed-form expressions linking the signal–noise matrix ratio to the parameters of the VARMA representation of the model. We then show that the parameters can be estimated using a recently introduced method, called “Moment Estimation Through Aggregation (META).” This method replaces traditional multivariate likelihood estimation with a procedure that requires estimating univariate processes only. This makes the estimation simpler, faster, and better behaved numerically. We prove that our estimation method is consistent and asymptotically normal distributed for the proposed framework. Finally, we present an empirical application focusing on the industrial production of several European countries.

We use a time-varying parameter dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility estimated using Bayesian methods to disentangle the relative importance of the common component in Federal Housing Finance Agency house price movements from state-specific shocks, over the quarterly period of 1975Q2 to 2017Q4. We find that the contribution of the national factor in explaining fluctuations in house prices is critical. We then use a Bayesian change-point vector autoregressive model that allows for different regimes throughout the sample period, to study the impact of aggregate supply, aggregate demand, (conventional) monetary policy, and term-spread shocks, identified based on sign restrictions on the national component of house price movements. While monetary policy and other shocks are found to be quite dominant early on, we find evidence that the national factor has been detached from the identified macroeconomic shocks since 2014, thus suggesting that a “national bubble” might be brewing again in the US housing market.

The paper examines a stochastic analogue of the Polterovich model of economic dynamics. The study focuses on the asymptotic properties of equilibrium paths. The main results are stochastic turnpike theorems with exponential estimates of the convergence rate.

This paper deals with macroeconomic aspects of widespread substance abuse with a reference to illicit drugs as an example. Substance abuse impedes the productivity of the labor force and reduces economic growth. Workers are either nonusers and therefore fully productive, a number of whom are employed by the government in drug-control activities, or users who are only partially productive. Efficient management of the nation's portfolio of workers involves eradicating drug use when initial user numbers are lower than a critical level, but allows user numbers to rise to, and be accommodated at, a stationary level when initial user numbers exceed a critical level.

This paper studies cycles of nationalization and privatization in resource-rich economies. It starts with a synthesis of available evidence on the drivers and consequences of privatization and nationalization. Then it develops a dynamic model of the choice between private and national regimes for the ownership of natural resources. The choice is driven by a basic equality-efficiency trade-off: national ownership results in more redistribution of income and more equality but undermines incentives for effort. We discuss how the resolution of the trade-off depends on external variables—such as the commodity price—and domestic ones—such as the tax system. The model thus identifies the determinants of the observed cycles of privatization and nationalization and is consistent with key stylized facts.

This paper uncovers a mechanism by which bubbles crowd in capital investment. If capital formation is initially depressed by a binding credit constraint, a bubble triggers a savings glut. Higher returns in a new bubbly equilibrium attract additional savings, which are channeled to expand investment at the extensive margin, leading to permanently higher capital, output, and wages. We demonstrate that crowding-in through this channel is a robust phenomenon that occurs along the entire time path.

This paper investigates whether temporary agency employment complements or substitutes for regular employment. We use unique administrative data that provide information on the overall size of the German market for temporary agency workers for the period 1991–2010. To take into account the interaction between the two employment forms, we identify a SVAR model with correlated innovations by volatility regimes. We find that a positive shock to temporary agency employment increases overall employment, but also leads to substitution for regular jobs.