New England's dependence upon other regions for much of its food supply has become a cause for concern for farmers, consumers, and public officials. As the debate on the region's need and ability to become more self-sufficient in food production continues, the need for an estimate of current levels of self-sufficiency becomes obvious.

This paper estimates New England's level of self-sufficiency for 1975 using secondary data for population, retail expenditures and farm marketing receipts. The region was found to be about 38 percent self-sufficient in overall food production. It produces a high of 176 percent of its seafood requirements and a low of 3 percent of its red meat. Maine and Vermont are surplus food producers.

Most economists get caught up in one way or another with size and efficiency issues. We all play a numbers game. It may be to describe output and economic activity in any one of the sectors of the food industry. It may be to make comparisons about farm numbers or output among counties, among states or among countries. Most often it involves changes over time as well. But we are all asked to assemble statistics, to explain how these statistics are collected and to make generalizations about what these statistics mean. This is the very essence of the business of applied economists.

On April 5 of this year President Jimmy Carter addressed the Nation on energy. After a brief introduction the President said:

The President then went on to say:

There is some concern that geographic patterns of dairy cooperative membership, and customary relationships among milk assemblers and processors, may inhibit milk marketing efficiency in the Northeast. Raw milk assembly patterns and hard product manufacturing plant locations are here developed which minimize total regional costs of these functions. Solutions are highly sensitive to season, day-of-the-week, and capacity assumptions. Evidence strongly suggests that regional coordination of milk assembly and manufacturing would result in cost savings and in some re-alignment of present milk shipment patterns.

My task was to survey a field of staggering breadth and yet to avoid being superficial. It was complicated by the intent of providing something of professional interest to a group of economists without resorting to blackboards ro equations.

Bias in estimating recreational values may result if congestion is ignored in the demand model specification. Theoretical and empirical considerations pertaining to recreation congestion are summarized. Empirical results for camping in Western Massachusetts are presented which demonstrate the potential degree of bias from demand model misspecification. The results indicate that recreational values may be strongly influenced by congestion effects and that camping areas with relatively low densities may have a higher economic value than high density areas with similar facilities.

Hay crop forage systems for milk production are compared using the budgeting technique for four feeding plans containing hay (90% dry matter) or hay crop silage (40% dry matter) only and in combination with corn silage as 50% of the forage dry matter. Investments, labor requirements, purchased feed, and cropping program differences are calculated for each hay crop forage system. Hay crop silage-corn silage systems are low cost systems for all herd sizes analyzed. Improved nutrient quality of the hay crop when harvested as hay crop silage is a major factor determining the annual cost ranking.

Farmers in the Northeast have traditionally rotated crops in a particular field. This system has several advantages. Rotation of crops reduces the buildup of weeds, insects, and diseases specific to one crop. Legumes such as alfalfa fix nitrogen for use by the following grain crops. Including close growing crops in the rotation reduces soil loss. Growing several crops distributes labor requirements and reduces risk.

Data from a sample of Rhode Island households indicate that firewood use along with wood stove use is increasing in response to increases in conventional heating fuel costs. More than half the sample of households reported the intention to reduce their heating fuel costs as their primary reason for burning wood. For nearly 20 percent of the households, the 1977–78 study season was the first heating season that these households had burned firewood. Among wood stove users, 50 percent began using a wood stove for the first season, the 1977–78 study season. Regression results indicate that the variables price, income and primary reason firewood is burned are important in the household's decision on the quantity of firewood burned.

During the past several decades, a number of research publications have used Markov chain processes to predict changes in number of farm firms, the average size of farms and labor resource productivity in farm production (Conneman, Harris and Wilson, Judge and Swanson, Kottke, Seyala, Willett and Saupe, Wysong and Seyala). The Markov method assumes that the pattern of change exhibited in the past will continue into the future. This method provides information on historical changes by frequency distribution categories as well as for the whole cohort, and allows for projection of these changes into the future. Previous studies have used mainly short-run periods of up to 5 years as the primary data base. This study has considered the use of longer-run base periods of 10 to 20 years combined with periodic updating of sample data in projecting long-term trends in numbers and sizes of dairy farms and revising such projections through time.

Traditional models in the agricultural labor literature have examined agricultural labor supply in terms of a labor-leisure trade-off by a single individual. This work examines the question of total annual market days in farm and nonfarm work of secondary family workers engaged in hired farm work. The underlying model is one of home production-consumption. A trade-off of market days between wife and older children in a family is hypothesized. Empirical results are mixed, generally supporting a trade-off in the supply of market days in a family between nonstudents and wives, but not between students and wives.

Nearly level terrain, heavy soils, and impermeable subsoil horizons commonly cause poor drainage in Northern New York. Forty-five percent of the cropland in this region is classified as poorly drained (Lucey). The soils in this area dry slowly, consequently restricting the effective length of the growing season. Production of corn is marginal and the establishment of legume seedings is prevented by poor drainage. Poor drainage is only a single characteristic of a farm's soil resource, but it has multiple effects. Farm managers have adjusted to poor drainage by using grass hay crops as a forage base and by adopting other management practices which utilize land more extensively.

As a result of accelerated growth during the past decade, land use change over time and its accompanying problems represents a policy area germane to New Hampshire. Accurate projections of the future pattern of land use would be helpful to decision makers responsible for land use policy. Such projections could assist policy makers either directly in formulating land use plans or indirectly in justifying the need (or lack of need) for overt land use planning. Future projections, based upon various alternative land use policy scenarios, will increase the quantitative supply of information to decision makers in a two-fold manner. First, such estimates provide an insight into the current trend in land use mix and, secondly, give an overview of what impacts various policies directly have upon land use change.

Appropriations politics in Congress concerning the Department of Agriculture and the Federal Extension Service were described for a period covering the years from 1960 to 1975. Analyses indicated that Congressional Committee decisions were affected by the degree of unity within the committees, external support, and confidence shown in the agency. The analyses confirm the contention that the Department of Agriculture and Extension Service have strong and effective clientele groups.

The purpose of this paper is to present a model which was developed to forecast Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) caseloads and payments in Delaware. The model consists of a caseload equation, a paynlents equation and three labor market equations. The model, which was fitted statistically using quarterly data for the period 1958-1976, forecasts significantly better than trend type models. In addition, the model, unlike trend type models has the potential for forecasting turning points and can be used to simulate the impact of proposed policy changes.

Virginia and other northeastern coastal states have adopted legislation in an effort to diminish the rate at which coastal wetlands are being “reclaimed” for development as residential, commercial, or industrial sites. In all these states, the arguments for public protection of natural wetlands were based upon a growing, but still incomplete, body of scientific evidence linking wetlands to any array of non-market ecological services such as waste assimilation and provision of fish and wildlife habitat.

The objectives of this article were first to develop a viable predicting model of the West Virginia feeder calf supply using calves marketed as the dependent variable. The second objective was to validate the predicting model using the “leave-out-one-year” procedure and to derive an alternative predicting equation using the jackknife technique. The purpose of the emphasis on the second objective was to provide a simple and direct demonstration, of a useful and necessary technique, for the large group of applied economists, who often use econometric methods, but who do not consider themselves to be econon etric specialists.

This paper presents one component of a larger research project which was conducted to provide a source of data on historical land use trends in the Delaware Coastal Zone. That study used its established data base to predict how past land use patterns may be altered in the future, due to potential Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) onshore impacts. Primary data were generated for selected regions in Delaware's and Louisiana's Coastal Zone to accomplish the study's intended purposes. One of the important characteristics of the effort was the evaluation of the manner in which gross land use changes occurred in and out of selected categories. Most land use analyses have depicted only net changes, which can mask dynamically shifting phenomena. This paper demonstrates the utility of analyzing both the gross and net changes in agricultural land use for the period 1954–75.

Although continued attention has been given to the general study of “community,” we still lack a consensus, operational definition. Such an absence impedes development in this area of study. Because authors have used different areal conceptualizations, knowledge is, at best, case specific. This paper reviews the problem most often associated with aggregation of data, namely, aggregation bias, and considers some additional problems not usually associated with aggregation. The review serves as a prelude to a discussion of community research methodology which, at present, is beset with potential aggregation problems. Interpretation and possible implications of these findings are advanced.

Recreational home development has been and is likely to continue to be a major concern of many local governments in New England and elsewhere. Recreational homes are defined here as homes that are not the owner's primary residence and are used for vacation, leisure, or recreation. It is generally agreed that this type of development is initially beneficial to local government finances. While more town services may be required, the cost is usually outweighed by the added tax revenue. It is believed, however, that over time recreational homes may be converted to primary homes, which could lead to cost increases without proportional increases in revenue (Am. Soc. of Planning Officials, Clark, Payne). Also, from a wider perspective, the loss of agricultural and forest land to this use may not be desirable.