We consider a system of colonies in which migration, immigration and emigration take place according to a fairly general rule. Necessary and sufficient conditions for equilibrium are given in the theorem of Section (3). The equilibrium distribution of colony numbers is determined by Equations (7) and (9); the colony sizes are thus statistically independent in equilibrium.

Attention is also paid to the case where one colony becomes a “bottleneck” to circulation, when equilibrium changes character

For the distribution function of the busy period in the M/G/l queueing system with traffic intensity less than one it is shown that the tail varies regularly at infinity iff the tail of the service time varies regularly at infinity.

If X = (X1, · ··, Xn) has uniform distribution on the sphere or ball in ℝ with radius a, then the joint distribution of , ···, k, converges in total variation to the standard normal distribution on ℝ. Similar results hold for the inner products of independent n-vectors. Applications to geometric probability are given.

The invariant probability distribution is found for a class of birth-and-death processes on the integers with phases and one or two boundaries. The invariant vector has a matrix geometric form and is found by solving a non-linear matrix equation and then finding an invariant probability distribution on the boundary states. Levy's concept of watching a Markov process in a subset is used to naturally decouple the computation of distributions on the boundary and interior states.

The study of the distribution of the distance between words in a random sequence of letters is interesting in view of application in genome sequence analysis. In this paper we give the exact distribution probability and cumulative distribution function of the distances between two successive occurrences of a given word and between the nth and the (n+m)th occurrences under three models of generation of the letters: i.i.d. with the same probability for each letter, i.i.d. with different probabilities and Markov process. The generating function and the first two moments are also given. The point of studying the distances instead of the counting process is that we get some knowledge not only about the frequency of a word but also about its longitudinal distribution in the sequence.

The threshold behaviour of the stochastic spatial general epidemic model on a discrete location space is investigated by making use of the general percolation theory of McDiarmid.

Two agents are placed randomly on nodes of a known graph. They are aware of their own position, up to certain symmetries of the graph, but not that of the other agent. At each step, each agent may stay where he is or move to an adjacent node. Their common aim is to minimize the expected number of steps required to meet (occupy the same node). We consider two cases determined by whether or not the players are constrained to use identical strategies. This work extends that of Anderson and Weber on ‘discrete locations’ (complete graph) and is related to continuous (time and space) rendezvous as formulated by Alpern. Probabilistic notions arise in the random initial placement, in the random symmetries determining spatial uncertainty of agents, and through the use of mixed strategies.

We investigate the large-sample behaviour of maximum likelihood estimates (MLE's) of the parameters of a diffusion process, which is observed throughout continuous time. The results (limit normal distribution for the MLE and an asymptotic chi-squared likelihood ratio test) correspond exactly to classical asymptotic likelihood results, and follow easily from a central limit theorem for stochastic integrals.

In a single-shelf library of N books we suppose that books are returned by placing them at one end of the shelf. The probability of selecting each book is assumed to be known, and only one book is removed at a time. The N! arrangements of the books are considered as states of an ergodic Markov chain for which we find the stationary distribution.

A sequence of random variables is said to be extended negatively dependent (END) if the tails of its finite-dimensional distributions in the lower-left and upper-right corners are dominated by a multiple of the tails of the corresponding finite-dimensional distributions of a sequence of independent random variables with the same marginal distributions. The goal of this paper is to establish the strong law of large numbers for a sequence of END and identically distributed random variables. In doing so we derive some new inequalities of large deviation type for the sums of END and identically distributed random variables being suitably truncated. We also show applications of our main result to risk theory and renewal theory.

System signatures are useful tools in the study and comparison of coherent systems. In this paper, we define and study a similar concept, called the joint signature, for two coherent systems which share some components. Under an independent and identically distributed assumption on component lifetimes, a pseudo-mixture representation based on this joint signature is obtained for the joint distribution of the lifetimes of both systems. Sufficient conditions are given based on the respective joint signatures of two pairs of systems, each with shared components, to ensure various forms of bivariate stochastic orderings between the joint lifetimes of the two pairs of systems.

In this paper, we establish a simple asymptotic formula for the finite-time ruin probability of the compound Poisson model with constant interest force and subexponential claims in the case that the initial surplus is large. The formula is consistent with known results for the ultimate ruin probability and, in particular, is uniform for all time horizons when the claim size distribution is regularly varying tailed.

The accurate space derivative (ASD) method for the numerical treatment of nonlinear partial differential equations has been applied to the solution of Fisher's equation, a nonlinear diffusion equation describing the rate of advance of a new advantageous gene, and which is also related to certain water waves and plasma shock waves described by the Korteweg-de-Vries-Burgers equation. The numerical experiments performed indicate how from a variety of initial conditions, (including a step function, and a wave with local perturbation) the concentration of advantageous gene evolves into the travelling wave of minimal speed. For an initial superspeed wave this evolution depends on the cutting off of the right-hand tail of the wave, which is physically plausible; this condition is necessary for the convergence of the ASD method. Detailed comparisons with an analytic solution for the travelling waves illustrate the striking accuracy of the ASD method for other than very small values of the concentration.

Nonexponential asymptotics for solutions of two specific defective renewal equations are obtained. These include the special cases of asymptotics for a compound geometric distribution and the convolution of a compound geometric distribution with a distribution function. As applications of these results, we study the asymptotic behavior of the demographic birth rate of females, the perpetual put option in mathematics of finance, and the renewal function for terminating renewal processes.

Minimal repairs have been given considerable attention in the reliability literature. Instead of replacing a failed system by a new one, such a minimal repair restores the system to the state it had just before failure. But the state just before failure depends on the information which is available about the system. Different information levels are possible. This paper gives a general definition characterizing point processes which describe time points of minimal repairs with respect to a certain information level. Some examples demonstrate the wide range of applications.

Dufresne [1] recently showed that the integral of the exponential of Brownian motion with negative drift is distributed as the reciprocal of a gamma variable. In this paper, it is shown that this result is another formulation of the distribution of last exit times for transient Bessel processes. A bivariate distribution of such integrals of exponentials is also obtained explicitly.

Using the Girsanov transformation we derive estimates for the accuracy of piecewise approximations for one-sided and two-sided boundary crossing probabilities. We demonstrate that piecewise linear approximations can be calculated using repeated numerical integration. As an illustrative example we consider the case of one-sided and two-sided square-root boundaries for which we also present analytical representations in a form of infinite power series.

In extreme shock models, only the impact of the current, possibly fatal shock is usually taken into account, whereas in cumulative shock models, the impact of the preceding shocks is accumulated as well. In this paper we combine an extreme shock model with a specific cumulative shock model. It is shown that the proposed setting can also be interpreted as a generalization of the well-known Brown–Proschan model that describes repair actions for repairable systems. For a system subject to a specific process of shocks, we derive the survival probability and the corresponding failure rate function. Some meaningful interpretations and examples are discussed.

Using the kernel representation of a continuous-time Lévy-driven ARMA (autoregressive moving average) process, we extend the class of nonnegative Lévy-driven Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes employed by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2001) to allow for nonmonotone autocovariance functions. We also consider a class of fractionally integrated Lévy-driven continuous-time ARMA processes obtained by a simple modification of the kernel of the continuous-time ARMA process. Asymptotic properties of the kernel and of the autocovariance function are derived.

Galton-Watson processes where the reproduction of individuals in different generations can have different distributions retain many characteristic features of classical processes.