Expected prices for storable commodities often lie below spot prices plus interest and marginal storage charges. Recently this gap has been explained as the value of a call option held by a representative storer whenever a positive probability exists that stocks could dwindle to zero. However, the probability of an aggregate stock-out is effectively zero in most markets most of the time. This paper presents an alternative model that explains the gap as an equilibrium between fundamentals traders and noise traders. Applications of the model suggest that rational agents make up 84 percent of the U.S. copper market, and more than 95 percent of the corn and wheat markets.

A traditional approach to defining problems or needs is to compare a situation (what is) with objectives or valuations (what ought to be). A more elaborate version of this approach introduces some dynamics into the scheme by projecting current trends to determine how the expected situation some time in the future compares with what we would like the situation to be. One difficulty in such an approach is deciding what dimensions of the situation are important.

In considering the problems of small farms, do we primarily examine income and the measures of wellbeing — or emphasize the structure of agriculture and its implications for our society? Must we consider the extent to which concern for conservation of soil and energy resources is related to size of farms? Should we complicate the picture even more, as is often argued, by including the non-market-goods dimensions [18]? Some researchers would merely use a change in the number of small farms as indicative of a problem, but this is only symptomatic of more basic factors at work.

This article investigates how information from cotton yield monitors influences the perceptions of within-field yield variability of cotton producers. Using yield distribution modeling techniques and survey data from cotton producers in 11 southeastern states, we find that cotton farmers who responded to the survey tend to underestimate within-field yield variability (by approximately 5-18%) when not using site-specific yield monitor information. Results further indicate that surveyed cotton farmers who responded to a specific question about yield monitors place a value of approximately $20/acre/year (on average) on the additional information about within-field yield variability that the yield monitor technology provides.

This paper is concerned only with research that is intended to guide, influence, or illuminate public policy choices. As professionals, we economists exhibit an unfortunate contradiction in values. Economists insist on making value judgments because they are needed to do research on public policy issues, and, simultaneously, insist on not discussing them, thereby keeping ourselves ignorant about what we are doing.

The issue of ethics has received little notice in agricultural economics journals. This study utilized a survey technique to reveal the ethical attitudes among some 500 students at four Land Grant Universities. The data were analyzed using multiple regression techniques. Individuals negotiating with strangers were more willing to use questionable ethical tactics. Women, individuals who were cooperative rather than competitive in negotiation situations, and those who regularly attended religious services were consistently less willing to use questionable ethics in negotiation. The size of the individual's hometown and family income had no clear impact on ethical attitudes in negotiations.

Herbicide-resistant (HR) rice technology is a potential tool for control of red rice in commercial rice production. Using an ex ante mathematical programming framework, this research presents an empirical analysis of HR rice technology adoption under uncertainty. The analysis accounts for stochastic germination of red rice and sheath blight to model a profit maximization problem of crop rotation among HR rice, regular rice, and soybeans. The results demonstrate that risk attitudes and technology efficiency determine adoption rates and optimal rotation patterns.

XLAYER, an expert/knowledge-based microcomputer program, was designed and developed to diagnose layer management problems and recommend expert remedial management advice. The program also provokes management action by calculating the economic loss attributed to major management problems. It analyzes data generated by a commercially marketed layer performance financial microcomputer program and has demonstrated the ability to emulate poultry management experts in the diagnoses of 80 individual layer management problems. The program provides scarce expert poultry management advice to poultry layer managers regardless of size and scale of operation.

Methyl parathion or Penncap M (an encapsulated methyl parathion) are used extensively throughout the United States for controlling stink bug pests in soybeans, Glycine Max (L.) Merrill. However, this insecticide is highly toxic to mammals, birds, and non-target arthropods, and thus is less environmentally sound than other insecticides. For environmental and human health considerations, investigating alternative insecticides for control is desired. For this investigation, research based on field experimental data from Florida, Georgia, and Louisiana during the 1988 and 1989 growing seasons were employed. Results indicate that alternative, currently available, and less toxic insecticides may reduce producer costs, increase yield, and improve soybean quality. These alternative insecticides include Scout (tralomethrin), Karate (lambda-cyhalothrin), Orthene (acephate), and Baythroid (cyfluthrin). In terms of improved profits these alternative insecticides may dominate methyl parathion or encapsulated methyl parathion.

Increases in the United States tariff-rate quota for sugar are simulated to determine the impact of Cuban market access and an increased Mexican allotment. The effects on both domestic and international sugar markets, including production, consumption, prices, and trade, are determined and welfare effects identified. This analysis is carried out using a partial-equilibrium simplified world trade model, Modele Internationale Simplifié de Simulation (MISS), which simulates, in a comparative-static framework, the effects of various policy actions.

Canada is the most important U.S. export market for frozen concentrated orange juice, accounting for over 8 million gallons of exports each of the past 9 years. Brazil and the U.S. are the dominant suppliers of orange juice in Canada. Prior to 1975, the U.S. held more than 60 percent of the Canadian market.

Aggregate data are commonly used to determine returns to storage. However, recent studies have shown that aggregating data may lead to underestimated returns. This article compares aggregate and elevator data from Oklahoma to determine if aggregate data underestimate returns. We find no difference between the mean returns estimated with aggregate data and the mean returns estimated with transaction level data from grain elevators in Oklahoma.

The contingent valuation method was used to elicit Japanese consumers' willingness-to-pay for genetically modified organism (GMO) segregation programs. The results revealed that most consumers pay nonnegligible premiums for products produced under strict GMO-segregation programs. However, we found that the premium did not vary by the threshold level of GMO content in the product. We further found that a government certification did not increase the premium for GMO-segregation programs. Therefore, an additional mandatory regulation to reduce GMO contaminations would not be worthwhile because such a regulation would incur substantial enforcement costs.

Mathematical programming results revealed that moving toward more flexible agricultural policies would generate substantial economic and environmental gains in a North Carolina diversified cropping region. But in a Washington-Idaho dryland grains region, only the use of relatively new and sometimes problematic alternative cropping systems permitted environmental and economic gains under policy reform. In both regions, a recoupling policy, which links government payments to resource-conserving farming practices, was needed to protect environmental quality when market prices for program crops were high.

It is widely recognized that outdoor recreation is an important segment of our economy. Most recent efforts to quantify the size of the recreational segment of our economy result in determining only isolated parts of total recreational value. This is particularly true of efforts to determine the value of various aspects of publicly owned natural resource systems. This paper presents procedures to estimate total recreational value of water in a river basin system: the Kissimmee River Basin, Florida.

This article examines the effects of the application of panel data estimation methods on a system of equations with unbalanced panel data. We apply pooled, random-effects, and fixed-effects estimation in three data sets: small, medium, and large farms to examine the relationship between farm size and the elasticity of cotton supply with respect to cotton price. Our results indicate that the adoption of various estimation methods entails different estimated parameters both in terms of their absolute value and in terms of their statistical significance. Additionally, the elasticity of cotton supply with respect to price varies according to farm size.

Cotton and synthetic fiber competition in textile mills between 1961-1990 was examined using a time-varying parameter regression model. Results indicate that the structure of demand for cotton is not stable and cotton's share responses to changes in the prices of cotton and synthetic fiber vary over time. Cotton and synthetic fiber competition in textile mill use is essentially between cotton and noncellulosic fiber. Cellulosic fiber is not a cotton competitor.

Increased credit availability facilitates land acquisition, but higher land values also hinder it. We investigate the impact of credit availability on land values, after regulatory changes in the lending system. We build an index of increased credit availability using Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation data. County-level panel fixed effects estimations are performed controlling for land value determinants, credit availability, and county-level macroeconomic factors. We find that estimating the effects of credit availability separately masks its total effect. Results show a 0.1 change in the index for increased credit availability is associated with 1.64–1.96% increase in land values.

This study estimates the dry bean yield increase in South Africa that is attributable to genetic improvements through the Agricultural Research Council's (ARC) bean breeding program. Using 32 test plots across South Africa from 1982 to 2014, results indicate that ARC breeding increased average yields by 11.65 kg/ha annually, for a cumulative 43.28% increase. These yield increases were not at the expense of yield variance, an important measure of food security. These findings indicate that the returns on investment are relatively high (an estimated 5.67:1 benefit-cost ratio) and can lead to greater food security though increased and stabilized bean yields.

This article examines the effects of ocean-related decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena on climate and the effects of both climate shifts and independent DCV events on crop yields. We address three DCV phenomena: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Tropical Atlantic Sea-Surface Temperature Gradient (TAG), and the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). We estimate the joint effect of these DCV phenomena on the mean, variance, and skewness of crop yield distributions. We found regionally differentiated impacts of DCV phenomena on growing degree days, precipitation, and extreme weather events, which in turn alter distributions of U.S. regional crop yields.

Export tax reform in Argentina could improve its competitiveness in China’s soybean market, displacing exports from competing countries like Brazil and the United States. We examined the factors that determine China’s demand for imported soybean products and how export taxes could affect exporting countries. Using import demand and vector autoregression estimates, we conducted simulations of China’s import demand assuming the elimination of export taxes in Argentina. Results indicated that Argentine soybean products could realize gains in the Chinese market, but only in the short run. Projected import demand changes in the long run were insignificant for all exporting countries.