The cattle industry batch markets animals in pens. Because of this, animals within any one pen can be both underfed and overfed. Thus, there is a production inefficiency associated with batch marketing. We simulate the value of sorting animals through weight and ultrasound measurements from original pens into smaller alternative marketing groups. Sorting exploits the production inefficiency and enables cattle feeding enterprises to avoid meat quality discounts, capture premiums, more efficiently use feed resources, and increase returns. The value of sorting is between $15 and $25 per head, with declining marginal returns as the number of sort groups increases.

Moving from price-triggered to area revenue–triggered programs was perhaps the most common theme among 2007 farm bill proposals. Area revenue–triggered commodity programs may make farm-level revenue insurance products seem redundant, raising questions about why the federal government should continue both programs. Area revenue–triggered programs would remove much of the systemic risk faced by producers. As a result, private sector insurers may be able to insure the residual risk without federal involvement. This paper examines the effects of moving to area revenue–triggered commodity programs with a focus on public policy issues that would likely arise.

Forecast distributions based on historical yields and subjective expectations for 1987 expected crop yields were compared for 90 Western Kentucky grain farms. Different subjective probability elicitation techniques were also compared. In many individual cases, results indicate large differences between subjective and empirical moments. Overall, farmer expectations for 1987 corn yields were below those predicted from their past yields, while soybean expectations were above the historical forecast. Geographical location plays a larger role than crop in comparisons of relative variability of yield. Neither elicitation technique nor manager characteristics have significant effects on the comparisons of the forecasts.

This study extends Batten's synthetic demand modeling approach to increase the flexibility of the uniform substitute specification of the Rotterdam demand system. Marginal propensities to consume (MPC) vary with budget shares and Slutsky coefficients are defined in terms of varying MPCs. An application of the model to orange-juice products shows that the pattern of income and price elasticities over time is much different than when MPCs are restricted to be constant.

Consumers prefer bright, cherry-red retail beef. Retailers often mark down the price of discolored beef for quick sale. However, following this practice could result in a net loss of revenue if consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for nondiscolored beef is negatively affected by the presence of discolored beef in the consumer choice set. Through a hypothetical online survey and a controlled in-person experiment, we determine that marketing discolored beef together with nondiscolored beef increases most consumers’ evaluation of, but not their WTP for, nondiscolored beef.

The use of surface water to replace groundwater for irrigation is often viewed as an effective approach for reducing groundwater overdraft on an agricultural landscape. However, the availability of surface water does not necessarily lead to groundwater conservation in practice. The expected increase in the aquifer volume in the presence of surface water does not occur unless the off-farm water price is low enough to generate a significant shift away from groundwater. There is a change in the crop pattern toward more irrigation-intensive crops, and the net effect can be a rise in groundwater extraction.

Using linked data from multiple years of the U.S. Census of Agriculture, this study identifies farm and operator characteristics associated with beginning farm survival, growth, and success. Success is defined as continuing in business for 5 years without a decline in farm real estate asset value. The results indicate which types of beginning farms and farmers are likely to survive and grow—information which could be useful in targeting program resources. By identifying policy-amenable variables that correlate with both farm survival and business expansion, the results also suggest possible mechanisms for increasing the success of beginning farms.

We investigate the dynamic evolution of the price discovery function in Chinese agricultural futures markets using a newly developed rolling window cointegration approach. The results show that, compared with wheat and rice, the futures-spot cointegration relationship in the soybean and corn markets tends to be more durable and frequent. Dynamic cointegration analysis indicates that the recent market-oriented reforms in China have boosted the price discovery function of soybean and corn futures markets, whereas price stabilization policies tend to weaken the price discovery function of futures markets. The difference in price discovery function is attributed to differences in market mechanisms and Chinese agricultural policies.

Interviews of customers at direct produce markets were conducted to determine why expenditure patterns vary. Frequency of shopping at outlets, income, uses of produce, household composition, and distance to the outlet are important determinants of expenditures at direct product outlets.

This study determines the effect of government payments on real agricultural asset values using Bayesian vector autoregression. In developing the empirical model, special attention is focused on the informational content of government payments. The results indicate that government payments to farmers have little effect on real asset values in the long run. In the short run, an increase in government payments to farmers may be associated with decline in asset values.

Texas dryland upland cotton yields have historically exhibited greater variation and more distributional irregularities than the yields of other crops, raising concerns that conventional parametric distribution models may generate biased or otherwise inaccurate crop insurance premium rate estimates. Here, we formulate and estimate regime-switching models for Texas dryland cotton yields in which the distribution of yield is conditioned on local drought conditions. Our results indicate that drought-conditioned regime-switching models provide a better fit to Texas county-level dryland cotton yields than conventional parametric distribution models. They do not, however, generate significantly different Group Risk Plan crop insurance premium rate estimates.

Due to red meat consumption, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) disease has been a major human health concern since its discovery in 1986. An event study approach was applied to determine the impact of BSE official events that occurred in the United Kingdom on U.S. live cattle futures prices. When abnormal returns were aggregated during the course of the events, the price series were adversely affected, mainly after the event day. This suggests that market reaction was dissipated quickly and that no leakage of information occurred prior to the event.

We examine producer behavior, resistance evolution, and returns under alternative refuge requirements in an eastern North Carolina region with multiple corn, cotton, and soybean fields infested by a mobile pest. Returns are highest, pyrethroid sprays occur least frequently, and pyrethroid resistance evolution is delayed most effectively with no refuge requirement. Complying with the current 20% refuge requirement costs the producer $8.67 per cotton acre, or $34.21 per non-transgenic insecticidal (Bt) cotton acre. Returns are highest under each refuge requirement when one-toxin Bt cotton is not phased out; however, removal of the technology at the earliest phase-out date minimizes regional pyrethroid sprays.

Financial analysis of an ethanol/electricity cogeneration plant indicates a rapid payback of investment and a high internal rate of return. This is primarily because cogeneration of steam for generation of electricity and biomass conversion to ethanol results in increased engineering efficiency compared to alternative ethanol alone production processes. Economic sensitivity testing included alternative price levels, interest rates, capacities, costs, and a “stand alone” case with no federal government excise tax subsidies. Supply and price analyses suggest the procurement of locally produced feedstock in Alabama and surrounding states is feasible. The robustness of the economic analysis provides support for consideration of ethanol cogeneration as a currently feasible strategy to utilize excess agricultural production capacity.

Each year many agricultural commodity groups spend millions of dollars advertising and promoting generic products. Generic advertising of a number of farm commodities occurs under federal authorization, under separate legislation or under marketing orders, or it is funded by producers on a voluntary contribution or mandatory basis.

More than three-fourths of the advertising programs operating under separate federal legislation or marketing order authority have been initiated during the past ten years (Armbruster). In addition to existing advertising programs, several advertising programs authorized under federal legislation were voted down by producers in a referendum: the most recent case was a beef referendum.

Basis forecasting is important for producers and consumers of agricultural commodities in their risk management decisions. However, the best performing forecasting model found in previous studies varies substantially. Given this inconsistency, we take a Bayesian approach, which addresses model uncertainty by combining forecasts from different models. Results show model performance differs by location and forecast horizon, but the forecast from the Bayesian approach often performs favorably. In some cases, however, the simple moving averages have lower forecast errors. Besides the nearby basis, we also examine basis in a specific month and find that regression-based models outperform others in longer horizons.

This paper contributes to the debate on whether pre-harvest pricing strategies can improve returns over cash sales at harvest. It also examines cash flow needs of such strategies. The analysis is conducted for Ohio corn produced from 1986 through 1999. The pre-harvest strategies evaluated (short futures, long put, synthetic long put, put-call fence) did not statistically improve returns over cash sales at harvest. However, if implemented during or before planting, these naïve strategies reduced the standard deviation of annual gross income. Substantial cash flow may be incurred, either to establish the strategy or meet margin calls. Therefore, assessments of pre-harvest pricing strategies should include cash flow needs, along with return and risk.

The decision to overwinter feeder cattle hinges directly on the forecast of spring cattle prices. An analysis of price forecasts from several alternative models is presented. The models are evaluated using both the traditional mean square criterion and alternative criteria. The alternative criteria evaluate the profitability of the decision implemented based upon the forecast.

This study identifies the most important factors affecting customers’ decisions to buy pick-your-own versus prepicked strawberries and muscadine grapes at direct-market operations in North Carolina. The relative importance analysis identified the region of location of the operations and prices as the explanatory variable explaining most of the variation observed in the customer's decision to choose the type of fruit to purchase. The estimated price elasticities indicate that sales of each type of fruit are very sensitive to prices.