Our aim was to obtain knowledge of how meteorological conditions affect community epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection. To this end we recorded year-round RSV activity in nine cities that differ markedly in geographic location and climate. We correlated local weather conditions with weekly or monthly RSV cases. We reviewed similar reports from other areas varying in climate. Weekly RSV activity was related to temperature in a bimodal fashion, with peaks of activity at temperatures above 24–30°C and at 2–6°C. RSV activity was also greatest at 45–65% relative humidity. RSV activity was inversely related to UVB radiance at three sites where this could be tested. At sites with persistently warm temperatures and high humidity, RSV activity was continuous throughout the year, peaking in summer and early autumn. In temperate climates, RSV activity was maximal during winter, correlating with lower temperatures. In areas where temperatures remained colder throughout the year, RSV activity again became nearly continuous. Community activity of RSV is substantial when both ambient temperatures and absolute humidity are very high, perhaps reflecting greater stability of RSV in aerosols. Transmission of RSV in cooler climates is inversely related to temperature possibly as a result of increased stability of the virus in secretions in the colder environment. UVB radiation may inactivate virus in the environment, or influence susceptibility to RSV by altering host resistance.

Epidemics of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in major Brazilian cities are new phenomena since 1980. As determinants of transmission in urban settings probably operate at different geographic scales, and information is not available for each scale, a multilevel approach was used to examine the effect of canine infection and environmental and socio-economic factors on the spatial variability of incidence rates of VL in the city of Teresina. Details on an outbreak of greater than 1200 cases of VL in Teresina during 1993–1996 were available at two hierarchical levels: census tracts (socio-economic characteristics, incidence rates of human VL) and districts, which encompass census tracts (prevalence of canine infection). Remotely sensed data obtained by satellite generated environmental information at both levels. Data from census tracts and districts were analysed simultaneously by multilevel modelling. Poor socio-economic conditions and increased vegetation were associated with a high incidence of human VL. Increasing prevalence of canine infection also predicted a high incidence of human VL, as did high prevalence of canine infection before and during the epidemic. Poor socio-economic conditions had an amplifying effect on the association between canine infection and the incidence of human VL. Focusing interventions on areas with characteristics identified by multilevel analysis could be a cost-effective strategy for controlling VL. Because risk factors for infectious diseases operate simultaneously at several levels and ecological data usually are available at different geographical scales, multilevel modelling is a valuable tool for epidemiological investigation of disease transmission.

We describe parental attitude towards mass antimicrobial prophylaxis and adolescent booster vaccination to prevent pertussis. A survey was distributed to parents at a large suburban high school where an outbreak of pertussis was occurring. A total of 314 surveys were received among 450 distributed. If antimicrobial prophylaxis was recommended for all students and faculty as a method of controlling a pertussis outbreak in their child's school (i.e. mass antimicrobial prophylaxis), 40% of parents would have their child take the medication and 49% might have their child take the antibiotic but would first consult their child's physician. Having [ges ]2 children attend the high school (OR 2·2, 95% CI 1·10–4·59) and generally favouring immunizations (OR 1·7, 95% CI 0·99–2·87) were predictors of likely compliance with mass antimicrobial prophylaxis. These findings underscore the importance of communicating the rationale of public health intervention efforts to physicians in order to help ensure their success.

A ten-fold increase in Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 cases in The Netherlands during September–November 2005 prompted an outbreak investigation. A population-based matched case-control study included 56 cases and 100 controls. Risk factors for infection were consumption of a pre-processed raw beef product (odds ratio 4·2, 95% confidence interval 1·5–12·0) and of food from mobile caterers (odds ratio 4·9, 95% confidence interval 1·1–22·1). Bacterial molecular typing established a link with another DT104 outbreak in Denmark caused by beef from a third European country. The incriminated beef was traced in The Netherlands and sampling yielded DT104 of the outbreak-associated molecular type. We concluded that this outbreak was caused by imported contaminated beef. Consumers should be informed about presence of raw meat in pre-processed food products. Optimal utilization of international networks and testing and traceability of foodstuffs has the potential to prevent foodborne infections.

Although pneumonic plague is listed by the Centers of Disease Control in the leading ‘critical biological agents’, very few studies exist on this subject. In this study, a mathematical compartment model was used to describe the geographical and temporal spread of an epidemic of pneumonic plague following its use as a biological weapon. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed in order to assess the key parameters for the control of an outbreak in France. If interventions were taken 10 days after an attack, a reference scenario of 1000 index cases in Paris would lead to 2500 deaths. The results of the study indicate that the rapidity of onset of interventions has the largest effect on the final size of the epidemic, followed by wearing masks, treating contacts preventively and quarantine. Limiting inter-regional mixing does little to reduce casualties, although it does confine them to a single region.

To evaluate the risk of transmission of SARS coronavirus outside of the health-care setting, close household and community contacts of laboratory-confirmed SARS cases were identified and followed up for clinical and laboratory evidence of SARS infection. Individual- and household-level risk factors for transmission were investigated. Nine persons with serological evidence of SARS infection were identified amongst 212 close contacts of 45 laboratory- confirmed SARS cases (secondary attack rate 4·2%, 95% CI 1·5–7). In this cohort, the average number of secondary infections caused by a single infectious case was 0·2. Two community contacts with laboratory evidence of SARS coronavirus infection had mild or sub-clinical infection, representing 3% (2/65) of Vietnamese SARS cases. There was no evidence of transmission of infection before symptom onset. Physically caring for a symptomatic laboratory-confirmed SARS case was the only independent risk factor for SARS transmission (OR 5·78, 95% CI 1·23–24·24).

We report an outbreak with Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 resistant to six different antibiotic classes. The outbreak occurred in Denmark in July/August 2005 and was traced to a single restaurant. In addition to patient interviews, an important tool in the investigation of this outbreak was comparison by multi-locus variable number of tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) typing of patient strains with strains from the food surveillance system. This showed that the source of the outbreak was imported beef served as carpaccio. Carpaccio, thinly sliced raw fillet of beef, has not previously been associated with outbreaks, but should be considered a high-risk food item. This outbreak was one of two in different European Union (EU) countries traced back to beef from one company in a third EU country. This underscores the importance of efficient international Salmonella surveillance and food-safety control systems enabling timely interventions within the EU.

The objective of this study is to evaluate how increasing MMR infant vaccination coverage in recent years has modified the epidemiology of rubella in Italy. A cross-sectional population-based seroprevalence study of rubella antibodies was conducted on 3094 sera, in 2004, and results were compared with data obtained by the same method in 1996. The overall proportion of rubella-seropositive individuals was found to be significantly higher in 2004 with respect to 1996 (84·6% vs. 77·4%). However, an increase in seropositivity was observed only in the 1–19 years age groups. Recent increases in childhood MMR vaccination coverage, therefore, have not had an impact on seroprevalence in women of childbearing age, over 5% of whom remain susceptible to rubella. Preconception screening and postpartum vaccination of susceptible women are fundamental if the WHO target of less than one case of congenital rubella syndrome per 100 000 live births is to be attained.

Official statistics routinely underestimate mortality from specific microorganisms and deaths are assigned to non-specific syndromes. Here we estimate mortality attributed to specific pathogens by modelling non-specific infant deaths from laboratory reports and codes on death certificates for these pathogens, 1993–2000 in England and Wales using a generalized linear model. In total, 22·4–59·8% of non-specific deaths in infants (25–66 deaths a year) are attributable to specific pathogens. Yearly deaths from Bordetella pertussis in neonates are 6·8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·5–11·9]. In post-neonates 9·4 (95% CI 2·3–16·6) deaths a year are attributable to Neisseria meningitidis, 7·3 (95% CI 2·4–12·3) to Streptococcus pneumoniae, from 2·8 (95% CI 0·8–4·9) to 15·1 (95% CI 9·4–20·9) to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and 3 (95% CI 0·3–5·9) to parainfluenza type 2. Our results suggest there is substantial hidden mortality for a number of pathogens in infants. A considerable proportion of deaths classified to infectious syndromes are non-infectious, suggesting low specificity of death certification. Laboratory reports were the more reliable source, reinforcing the asset of strong surveillance systems.

Interactions between pathogens and hosts at the population level should be considered when studying the effectiveness of control measures for infectious diseases. The advantage of doing transmission experiments compared to field studies is that they offer a controlled environment in which the effect of a single factor can be investigated, while variation due to other factors is minimized. This paper gives an overview of the biological and mathematical aspects, bottlenecks and solutions of developing and executing transmission experiments with animals. Different methods of analysis and different experimental designs are discussed. Final size methods are often used for analysing transmission data, but have never been published in a refereed journal; therefore, they will be described in detail in this paper. We hope that this information is helpful for scientists who are considering performing transmission experiments.

A phylogenetic tree, which distinguishes between the serovars and serogroups of leptospires common in Central Europe was constructed using an established RAPD procedure together with digital reading and evaluation (using different computer software programs) of the generated amplified DNA patterns. The application of this procedure has revealed a consistent correspondence between serogroup and genotype (position in constructed tree) in 69 cases, and serovar and genotype in 72 cases, of wild strains of leptospires. There was an agreement between serovar and genotype in cases of strains of Grippotyphosa, Pomona, Mozdok, Arborea and Sorexjalna as well as between serogroup and genotype in cases of Australis, Bataviae and Sejroe. With the procedure used in this study, it was not possible to distinguish between reference strains of serovars Jalna, Bratislava and Lora (all serogroup Australis) as well as between serovars Icterohaemorrhagiae and Copenhageni (both of serogroup Icterohaemorrhagiae). In contrast to this, wild strains belonging to serogroup Sejroe were distributed between Polonica, Istrica, Saxkoebing and Sejroe serovars. Endemic strains of leptospires tested, were also distinguishable.

Varicella vaccine was licensed in Canada in 1998, and a publicly funded vaccination programme introduced in the province of Alberta in 2001. In theory the vaccination programme might increase the burden of disease from shingles, making it important to develop baseline data against which future comparisons can be made. The study's aim was to describe the epidemiology of non-fatal cases of shingles for which publicly funded health services were utilized for the period 1986–2002. Shingles cases were identified from the records of Alberta's universal, publicly funded health-care insurance system for 1986–2002. The earliest dated health service utilizations for ICD-9-CM codes of 053 or ICD-10-CA codes of B02 were classified as incident. Diagnostic codes at least 180 days after the first were classified as recurrent episodes. Denominators for rates were estimated using mid-year population estimates from the Alberta Health Care Insurance Plan Registry. Annual age- and sex-specific rates were estimated. We explored the pattern of rates for sex, age and year effects and their interactions. Shingles rates increased between 1986 and 2002. There was a sex effect and evidence of an age–sex interaction. Females had higher rates than males at every age; however, the difference between females and males was greatest for the 50–54 years age group and declined for older age groups. The increased rate of shingles in Alberta began before varicella vaccine was licensed or publicly funded in Alberta, and thus cannot be attributed to vaccination.

This investigation was undertaken to provide detailed information on the epidemiology of human parvovirus B19 (B19) infection during pregnancy and childhood in the western part of Germany. Between 1997 and 2004, 40 517 sera from pregnant women aged 17–45 years and 6060 sera from children and young adults were tested for B19 IgG and IgM in our laboratory. In pregnant women, both the history of a ‘specific’ (OR 7·7, 95% CI 5·2–11·4) and a ‘non-specific’ rash (OR 3·3, 95% CI 1·5–7·1) was predictive for B19 IgM positivity. The B19 IgG prevalence was 69·2% (4097/5924) in a subgroup of asymptomatic pregnant women screened for B19 antibodies. In children, the age-specific IgG-positivity rate increased from 12·2% (66/541) at 2 years of age to 71·9% (396/551) in those older than 10 years. In conclusion, the prevalence of B19 IgG in pregnant women from the western part of Germany is higher then previously reported. Contact with children aged 3–10 years is a major risk factor for exposure to B19. Pregnant women with the history of a ‘non-specific’ rash should also be evaluated for acute B19 infection.

Salmonella is one of the most common causes of foodborne infection in Europe with Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis (S. Enteritidis) being the most commonly identified serovar. The predominant phage type for S. Enteritidis is phage type (PT) 4, although PT 8 has increased in incidence. Within these phage types, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) provides a method of further subdivision. The international project, Salm-gene, was established in 2001 to develop a database of PFGE profiles within nine European countries and to establish criteria for real-time pattern recognition. It uses DNA fingerprints of salmonellas to investigate outbreaks and to evaluate trends and emerging issues of foodborne infection within Europe. The Salm-gene database contains details of about 11 700 S. Enteritidis isolates, demonstrating more than 65 unique PFGE profiles. The clonal nature of S. Enteritidis is evidenced by the high similarity and distribution of PFGE profiles. Over 56% (6603/11 716) of the submitted isolates of several different phage types were profile SENTXB.0001, although this profile is most closely associated with PT 4. The next most common profiles, SENTXB.0002 and SENTXB.0005, were closely associated with PT 8 and PT 21 respectively. Studies to investigate the relationship of profile types with outbreaks and possible vehicles of infection suggest that the incidence of PFGE profile SENTXB.0002, and thus PT 8, in some countries may be due to importation of foods or food production animals from Eastern Europe, where PT 8 is amongst the most frequently identified phage types. Collation of subtyping data, especially in the commonly recognized phage types, is necessary in order to evaluate trends and emerging issues in salmonella infection.

A simulation study using Greenwood's chain-binomial model was carried out to elucidate the spread and control of Mycobacterium tuberculosis among the household contacts of infectious pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) patients. Based on the observed data, the maximum-likelihood estimates (±S.E.) of chain-binomial probabilities of intra-household M. tuberculosis transmission from an index case in 3-person and 4-person households were 0·313±0·008 and 0·325±0·009 respectively. The χ2 goodness-of-fit test of observed and simulated mean expected frequencies of cases revealed good fit for 3-person (P=0·979) and 4-person (P=0·546) households. With the assumption of varying risk of M. tuberculosis transmission across the households under β-distribution, goodness-of-fit tests of observed and mean simulated expected frequencies revealed the inadequacy of Greenwood's chain-binomial model both for 3-person (P=0·0185) and 4-person (P<0·001) households. Simulated M. tuberculosis control strategy comprising efficient diagnosis, segregation and prompt antibiotic therapy of index pulmonary TB patients showed a substantial reduction of new cases among the household contacts in both household sizes. In conclusion, segregation coupled with prompt antibiotic therapy of the index case, chemoprophylaxis of M. tuberculosis-exposed household contacts, and the assessment of household environmental risks to devise and implement an educational programme may help reduce the TB burden in this and similar settings.

Although Finland has not experienced a classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic since 1917, the concern about early detection is relevant. The time until detection of CSF on a pig-breeding farm was predicted by simulation, and earlier detection of CSF-infected farms was assessed. Eight to 12 weeks will pass before CSF is detected on a Finnish pig-breeding farm, which resembles detection of the index farm for actual CSF epidemics in Europe. Although notification of suspected CSF on the infected farm accelerates detection the most, interventions aimed at promoting investigations of the general health problem noticed on the farm, or a more comprehensive testing of samples currently arriving from pig farms to the investigating laboratory could shorten detection time by 3 weeks. Results are applicable for further simulation of an event of a CSF epidemic in Finland, and for studying contingency options to promote more rapid detection of infectious diseases of swine not found at present in the country.

The aim of this study was to determine changes in the epidemiology of hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection in the Basque Country, Spain, and to evaluate their implications for vaccination strategies. A total of 1356 persons were enrolled in a study of the prevalence of anti-HAV in 2004 and compared with two previous studies (1986–1987 and 1992). The selection method and the characteristics of the population were similar in the three studies. A marked decline in the seroprevalence in all age groups (P<0·001) and in the incidence of cases/100000 inhabitants (from 38·0 in 1986–1988 to 2·9 in 2002–2004) were observed. The mean age of patients with hepatitis A increased from 17·7 years in 1986–1992 to 21·2 years in 1993–1998 and 25·3 years in 1999–2004 (P<0·001). Between 1997 and 2004, 20% of patients were hospitalized. The changes observed have occurred rapidly causing a change in the epidemiological pattern from middle-high endemicity (1986) to low endemicity (2004).

The ecology of plague (Yersinia pestis infection) in its ancient foci in Central Asia remains poorly understood. We present field data from two sites in Kazakhstan where the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) is the major natural host. Family groups inhabit and defend burrow systems spaced throughout the landscape, such that the host population may be considered a metapopulation, with each occupied burrow system a subpopulation. We examine plague transmission within and between family groups and its effect on survival. Transmission of plague occurred disproportionately within family groups although not all gerbils became infected once plague entered a burrow system. There were no spatial patterns to suggest that family groups in close proximity to infected burrow systems were more at risk of infection than those far away. At one site, infection increased the chances of burrow-system extinction. Overall, it is useful to consider the burrow system as the unit of study within a much larger metapopulation.