We estimated the true incidence of campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis in the European Union (EU) in 2009. The estimate was based on disease risks of returning Swedish travellers, averaged over the years 2005–2009, and anchored to a Dutch population-based study on incidence and aetiology of gastroenteritis. For the 27 EU member states the incidence of campylobacteriosis was about 9·2 (95% CI 2·8–23) million cases, while the incidence of salmonellosis was 6·2 (95% CI 1·0–19) million cases. Only 1/47 (95% CI 14–117) cases of campylobacteriosis and one 1/58 (95% CI 9–172) cases of salmonellosis were reported in the EU. The incidence rate of campylobacteriosis in EU member states varied between 30 and 13 500/100 000 population and was significantly correlated with the prevalence of Campylobacter spp. in broiler chickens. The incidence rate of salmonellosis in EU member states varied between 16 and 11 800/100 000 population and was significantly correlated with the prevalence of Salmonella Enteritidis in laying hens.

The food court at a shopping mall is a potential transfer point for pathogenic microbes, but to date, this environment has not been the subject of detailed molecular microbiological study. We used a combination of culture-based and culture-independent approaches to investigate the types and numbers of bacteria present on food court tables, and on a food court cleaning cloth. Bacteria were found at 102–105 c.f.u./m2 on food court tables and 1010 c.f.u./m2 on the cleaning cloth. Tag-pyrosequencing of amplified 16S rRNA genes revealed that the dominant bacterial types on the cleaning cloth were genera known to include pathogenic species (Stenotrophomonas, Aeromonas), and that these genera were also evident at lower levels on table surfaces, suggesting possible cross-contamination. The evidence suggests a public health threat is posed by bacteria in the food court, and that this may be due to cross-contamination between cleaning equipment and table surfaces.

In 2010, an outbreak of cyclosporiasis affected passengers and crew on two successive voyages of a cruise ship that departed from and returned to Fremantle, Australia. There were 73 laboratory-confirmed and 241 suspected cases of Cyclospora infection reported in passengers and crew from the combined cruises. A case-control study performed in crew members found that illness was associated with eating items of fresh produce served onboard the ship, but the study was unable conclusively to identify the responsible food(s). It is likely that one or more of the fresh produce items taken onboard at a south-east Asian port during the first cruise was contaminated. If fresh produce supplied to cruise ships is sourced from countries or regions where Cyclospora is endemic, robust standards of food production and hygiene should be applied to the supply chain.

A temporal relationship of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) transmission in pigs, mosquitoes and humans revealed that sentinel pig seroconversions were significantly associated with human cases 4 weeks before (P = 0·04) their occurrence, highly correlated during the same time and 2 weeks before case occurrence (P < 0·001), and remained significantly correlated up to 2 weeks after human case occurrence (P < 0·01). JEV was detected in the same month in pigs and mosquitoes, and peaks of pig seroconversion were preceded by 1–2 months of peaks of infection in vectors. Kaplan–Meier analysis indicated that detection of JEV-positive mosquitoes was significantly associated with the median time to occurrence of seroconversion in pigs (P < 0·05). This study will not only help in predicting JEV activity but also accelerate timely vector control measures and vaccination programmes for pigs and humans to reduce the Japanese encephalitis risk in endemic areas.

A population-based study investigated the burden of illness, including the duration of illness associated with laboratory-confirmed cases of campylobacteriosis in two health unit areas. Questionnaire data were collected for 250 cases. The median duration of illness was 8 days and 66% of cases reported symptoms of moderate severity or greater. A Cox proportional hazards model identified antimicrobial use factors associated with a significantly increased rate of symptom resolution (shorter duration of illness): macrolides for less than the recommended number of days, ciprofloxacin for at least 3 days, and antimicrobials not recommended for campylobacteriosis. The impact of antimicrobial use was consistent regardless of when, during the course of illness, the antimicrobial use began. The effectiveness of ciprofloxacin in these results may be due to the low prevalence of resistance to ciprofloxacin in isolates from this study. The effect of antimicrobials not recommended for campylobacteriosis should be further investigated.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infection is known to increase in-hospital mortality, but little is known about its association with long-term health. Two hundred and thirty-seven deaths occurred among 707 patients with MRSA infection at the time of hospitalization and/or nasal colonization followed for almost 4 years after discharge from the Atlanta Veterans Affairs Medical Center, USA. The crude mortality rate in patients with an infection and colonization (23·57/100 person-years) was significantly higher than the rate in patients with only colonization (15·67/100 person-years, P = 0·037). MRSA infection, hospitalization within past 6 months, and histories of cancer or haemodialysis were independent risk factors. Adjusted mortality rates in patients with infection were almost twice as high compared to patients who were only colonized: patients infected and colonized [hazard ratio (HR) 1·93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·31–2·84]; patients infected but not colonized (HR 1·96, 95% CI 1·22–3·17). Surviving MRSA infection adversely affects long-term mortality, underscoring the importance of infection control in healthcare settings.

Data on the dynamics of malaria incidence, admissions and mortality and their best possible description are very important to better forecast and assess the implementation of programmes to register, monitor (e.g. by remote sensing) and control the disease, especially in endemic zones. Semi-annual and seasonal cycles in malaria rates have been observed in various countries and close similarity with cycles in the natural environment (temperature, heliogeophysical activity, etc.), host immunity and/or virulence of the parasite suggested. This study aimed at confirming previous results on malaria cyclicity by exploring whether trans-year and/or multiannual cycles might exist. The exploration of underlying chronomes (time structures) was done with raw data (without smoothing) by linear and nonlinear parametric regression models, autocorrelation, spectral (Fourier) and periodogram regression analysis. The strongest cyclical patterns of detrended malaria admissions were (i) annual period of 1·0 year (12 months or seasonality); (ii) quasi-biennial cycle of about 2·25 years; and (iii) infrannual, circadecennial cycle of about 10·3 years. The seasonal maximum occurred in May with the minimum in September. Notably, these cycles corresponded to similar cyclic components of heliogeophysical activity such as sunspot seasonality and solar activity cyclicities and well-known climate/weather oscillations. Further analyses are thus warranted to investigate such similarities. In conclusion, multicomponent cyclical dynamics of cerebral malaria admissions in Papua New Guinea were observed thus allowing more specific analyses and modelling as well as correlations with environmental factors of similar cyclicity to be explored. Such further results might also contribute to and provide more precise estimates for the forecasting and prevention, as well as the better understanding, of the dynamics and aetiology of this vector-borne disease.

In this study within-herd prevalence of Salmonella Dublin was investigated in three age groups (calves, young stock, adult cows) during five herd visits at 3-month intervals of 14 endemically infected dairy herds. A total of 10162 paired faecal cultures and antibody measurements were used to calculate the age and temporal dynamics of seroprevalence and prevalence of positive faecal cultures. Faecal culture-positive prevalence was generally low. It was highest (5·4%) in calves during December to February. Seroprevalence varied from 0% to 70% between herds, but was generally more stable in young stock and adult cows than in calves. Hierarchical mixed-model results showed that seroprevalence was associated with the bacteriological status in calves and cows, but not in young stock. These results can be used to develop and validate theoretical infection dynamics models and to design effective control programmes for Salmonella Dublin in dairy herds.

In 2009, following a bike race, a gastrointestinal illness outbreak affected many participants. A cohort study showed an attack rate of 16·3% with the main risk factor being mud splashes to the face. Considering these findings, in 2010 recommendations to participants in the bike race were issued and environmental control measures were implemented. In 2010, a retrospective cohort study using web-based questionnaires was conducted to measure the use of preventive measures and to assess risk factors associated with gastrointestinal illness. A 69% response rate was achieved and 11721 records analysed, with 572 (attack rate 4·9%) matching the case definition, i.e. participants reporting diarrhoea within 10 days of race. There was a clear increase in the use of mudguards (96·7% reported access to/receiving information on preventive measures) and a significant decrease in gastrointestinal illness. This may indicate that the measures have been effective and should be considered, both in terms of environmental control measures as well as individual measures.

By conducting a case-control study in two university hospitals, we explored the association between modifiable risk behaviours and diarrhoea. Children aged <5 years attending outpatient clinics for diarrhoea were matched by age and sex with controls. Data were collected on family demographics, socioeconomic indicators, and risk behaviour practices. Two rectal swabs and a stool specimen were collected from cases and controls. Samples were cultured for bacterial pathogens using standard techniques and tested by ELISA to detect rotavirus and Cryptosporidium spp. Four hundred cases and controls were enrolled between 2007 and 2009. The strongest independent risk factors for diarrhoea were: presence of another household member with diarrhoea [matched odds ratio (mOR) 4·9, 95% CI 2·8–8·4] in the week preceding the survey, introduction to a new kind of food (mOR 3, 95% CI 1·7–5·4), and the child being cared for outside home (mOR 2·6, 95% CI 1·3–5·2). While these risk factors are not identifiable, in some age groups more easily modifiable risk factors were identified including: having no soap for handwashing (mOR 6·3, 95% CI 1·2–33·9) for children aged 7–12 months, and pacifier use (mOR 1·9, 95% CI 1·0–3·5) in children aged 0–6 months. In total, the findings of this study suggest that community-based interventions to improve practices related to sanitation and hygiene, handwashing and food could be utilized to reduce the burden of diarrhoea in Egyptian children aged <5 years.

Maximum entropy ecological niche modelling and spatial scan statistic were utilized to predict the geographical range and to investigate clusters of infections for Neospora caninum and Coxiella burnetii in dairy cattle farms in Catalonia, northeastern Spain, using the Maxent and SaTScan programs, respectively. The geographical distribution of Neospora and Coxiella with the highest level of probability (P > 0·60) covers central Catalonia and spreads towards northeastern Catalonia which contains a high concentration of dairy cattle farms. The most important environmental factor that contributed to the ecological niche modelling was precipitation of driest month followed by elevation. Significant clusters (P < 0·001) were detected for Neospora and Coxiella infections in the western and eastern regions of Catalonia, respectively.

The transmission of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by climatic, reservoir and environmental variables. The epidemiology of the disease was studied over a 6-year period in Changsha. Variables relating to climate, environment, rodent host distribution and disease occurrence were collected monthly and analysed using a time-series adjusted Poisson regression model. It was found that the density of the rodent host and multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation index had the greatest effect on the transmission of HFRS with lags of 2–6 months. However, a number of climatic and environmental factors played important roles in affecting the density and transmission potential of the rodent host population. It was concluded that the measurement of a number of these variables could be used in disease surveillance to give useful advance warning of potential disease epidemics.

This study aimed to assess norovirus (NoV) contamination and genotype diversity in surface water in Gauteng, South Africa. Between January 2008 and December 2010, three rivers, namely Klip, Suikerbosrant, and Rietspruit were monitored for NoV genogroup (G)I and GII. Viruses were recovered using the glass wool adsorption-elution technique and detected by real-time reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction. From 2008 to 2010, NoVs were detected in 66% (70/106) of Klip river samples. The Rietspruit and Suikerbosrant rivers were contaminated with NoV in 95% (20/21) and 21% (5/24) of samples, respectively. NoV-positive samples comprised of 33% GI, 29% GII and 38% of both GI and GII strains. Based on partial capsid gene analysis (region C), 16 NoV genotypes (6 GI, 10 GII) were identified. The major genotypes detected were GI.4, GI.5 and GII.4. These rivers could be a potential source of NoV infection for communities using the water for domestic or recreational purposes.

In industrialized countries, acute infectious enteric diseases are usually mild, but they can also cause death. They do so, however, at different ages. Using 2004–2008 German notification data, we computed and compared crude and premature mortality [three different measures of years of potential life lost (YPLL)] of illnesses caused by Campylobacter spp., Listeria monocytogenes, norovirus, rotavirus, non-typhoidal Salmonella spp., and Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC). Among ∼1·5 million notified illnesses, those caused by norovirus were the most frequent. The highest annual mortality was registered for salmonellosis (0·55/1 000 000 population), but listeriosis accounted for the highest number of YPLL (n=4245). Disregarding death at advanced age (i.e. >70 years), STEC illness (n=757) and rotavirus gastroenteritis (n=648) ranked second and third, following listeriosis (n=2306). Routine surveillance captures only a fraction of all incident cases and deaths, under-ascertaining the true burden of disease. Weighting death by age permits a different view on the disease burden individual enteric pathogens cause and particularly underscores the public health importance of listeriosis prevention.

We investigated the first cluster of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 reported in Brazil in May 2009. The index case-patient had travelled from the USA and had contact with 11 relatives before she presented with symptoms. We conducted face-to-face or telephone interviews with the index case-patient and all suspect cases. We found evidence of pre-symptomatic transmission of the virus to four of her contacts. This finding has public health implications because it indicates that viral transmission in communities may not be prevented solely by isolating symptomatic case-patients.

A prevalence survey of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) was performed in 2010 in 19 long-term care facilities in Luxembourg. Of the 954 participating residents, 69 (7·2%) were colonized by MRSA. Previous history of MRSA [odds ratio (OR) 7·20, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3·19–16·27], quinolone therapy in the previous year (OR 2·27, 95% CI 1·17–4·41) and ⩾24 h care administered per week (OR 4·29, 95% CI 1·18–15·56) were independent risk factors for MRSA colonization. More than 75% of strains were of clonal complex (CC)5, mainly spa-type t003 or sequence type (ST)225 and ST710, which is a rapidly emerging lineage prevalent in central Europe. Five residents were colonized by livestock-associated genotypes belonging to CC398. Previously dominant CC8 strains have recently been replaced by more resistant CC5 strains in Luxembourg.

Rotavirus is a common viral cause of severe diarrhoea. For the underlying cause of rotavirus seasonality, the meteorological factor has been suspected, whereas quantitative correlation between seasonality and meteorological factor has not been fully investigated. In this study, we investigated the correlation of temporal patterns of the isolation rate of rotavirus with meteorological condition (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall) in Kolkata, India. We used time-series analysis combined with spectral analysis and least squares method. A 1-year cycle explained underlying variations of rotavirus and meteorological data. The 1-year cycle for rotavirus data was correlated with an opposite phase to that for meteorological data. Relatively high temperature could be associated with a low value of isolation rate of rotavirus in the monsoon season. Quantifying a correlation of rotavirus infections with meteorological conditions might prove useful in predicting rotavirus epidemics and health services could plan accordingly.

Cameroon has experienced recurrent cholera epidemics with high mortality rates. In September 2009, epidemic cholera was detected in the Far North region of Cameroon and the reported case-fatality rate was 12%. We conducted village-, healthcare facility- and community-level surveys to investigate reasons for excess cholera mortality. Results of this investigation suggest that cholera patients who died were less likely to seek care, receive rehydration therapy and antibiotics at a healthcare facility, and tended to live further from healthcare facilities. Furthermore, use of oral rehydration salts at home was very low in both decedents and survivors. Despite the many challenges inherent to delivering care in Cameroon, practical measures could be taken to reduce cholera mortality in this region, including the timely provision of treatment supplies, training of healthcare workers, establishment of rehydration centres, and promotion of household water treatment and enhanced handwashing with soap.

Sensitive surveillance systems are crucial for effective control of infectious disease outbreaks, and regional surveillance could provide valuable data to supplement global systems, improve sensitivity and timeliness of reporting, or capture otherwise undetected outbreaks. In New Zealand (NZ), there are no endemic arboviral diseases in humans, and the majority of dengue cases are imported from neighbouring Pacific Islands where comprehensive surveillance systems are under development. From 1997 to 2009, 679 cases of dengue were reported in NZ (74·2% acquired from the Pacific Islands), and the patterns of reported incidence of dengue acquired from different islands closely reflected local reported incidence in those areas. NZ is therefore in a unique position to provide early alerts on dengue outbreaks in the Pacific Islands. Such a strategy would reduce disease burden in both the Pacific Islands and NZ, and provide a model for transnational collaboration in disease surveillance with regional as well as global benefits.