The declining-population paradigm holds that small populations are particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic influences such as habitat destruction, pollution and species introductions. While the effects of particular stressors, such as parasitism, may be unimportant in a large, healthy population, they can be serious and even devastating in situations characterised by a restricted geographic range, or by fragmented or reduced population sizes. We apply this idea to nest parasitism of threatened Neotropical bird species that exist in small populations, focusing on dipteran nest parasites in the genus Philornis. We review the literature on Philornis parasitism exerting negative pressure on bird populations that have become small and isolated due to human actions and present a new case of Philornis parasitism of a threatened hummingbird species. Our aim is to raise awareness about the exacerbating effect that nest parasites can have on small and declining bird populations; especially when biological information is scarce. The five reviewed cases involve two species of Darwin’s Finches in the Galápagos Islands attacked by the invasive P. downsi, two species of hawks on islands in the Caribbean attacked by the native P. pici and P. obscura, and the Yellow Cardinal Gubernatrix cristata in southern South America attacked by an unknown Philornis species. We also present new documentation of parasitism of a threatened hummingbird species in mainland Ecuador by an unidentified Philornis species. We recommend more field studies to determine the presence of nest parasites in bird populations worldwide to improve understanding how nest parasites affect bird fitness and population viability and to allow time to act in advance if needed. Parasitism by Philornis may represent a severe mortality factor in most already threatened bird species, putting them at greater risk of extinction. Therefore, parasitism management should be included in all threatened species recovery plans.

The Maleo Macrocephalon Maleo is a megapode bird endemic to Sulawesi, Indonesia, that lays large eggs at communal nesting grounds in naturally-heated sands or soils. It is classified as ‘Endangered’ and many populations have been extirpated due to overexploitation of eggs and loss of connectivity between forest and nesting grounds. The distribution and status of nesting grounds across Northern and Central Sulawesi are relatively well-established, but almost nothing is known about potential Maleo populations of South-east Sulawesi. In this study we used previously established methods to formally assess the status of three Maleo nesting grounds in Buton, South-east Sulawesi, and interviewed egg collectors at these three sites to determine the trends of populations and threats over time. All nesting grounds were severely threatened and can be expected to be abandoned in the near future due to extensive harvest of eggs and deforestation. Eggs were collected both for the wildlife trade (intensively harvested and sold as luxury items to people from distant cities) and local use (opportunistically harvested and both eaten and sold locally). All egg collectors remarked on an increase in illegal logging around nesting grounds over the previous decade. Though the Maleo’s current situation is dire, previous case studies show that collaborative grassroots initiatives supported by government and NGOs can protect nesting grounds and reverse population declines.

Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) are sites identified as being globally important for the conservation of bird populations on the basis of an internationally agreed set of criteria. We present the first review of the development and spread of the IBA concept since it was launched by BirdLife International (then ICBP) in 1979 and examine some of the characteristics of the resulting inventory. Over 13,000 global and regional IBAs have so far been identified and documented in terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems in almost all of the world’s countries and territories, making this the largest global network of sites of significance for biodiversity. IBAs have been identified using standardised, data-driven criteria that have been developed and applied at global and regional levels. These criteria capture multiple dimensions of a site’s significance for avian biodiversity and relate to populations of globally threatened species (68.6% of the 10,746 IBAs that meet global criteria), restricted-range species (25.4%), biome-restricted species (27.5%) and congregatory species (50.3%); many global IBAs (52.7%) trigger two or more of these criteria. IBAs range in size from < 1 km2 to over 300,000 km2 and have an approximately log-normal size distribution (median = 125.0 km2, mean = 1,202.6 km2). They cover approximately 6.7% of the terrestrial, 1.6% of the marine and 3.1% of the total surface area of the Earth. The launch in 2016 of the KBA Global Standard, which aims to identify, document and conserve sites that contribute to the global persistence of wider biodiversity, and whose criteria for site identification build on those developed for IBAs, is a logical evolution of the IBA concept. The role of IBAs in conservation planning, policy and practice is reviewed elsewhere. Future technical priorities for the IBA initiative include completion of the global inventory, particularly in the marine environment, keeping the dataset up to date, and improving the systematic monitoring of these sites.

The illegal killing and taking of wild birds remains a major threat on a global scale. However, there are few quantitative data on the species affected and countries involved. We quantified the scale and scope of this issue in Northern and Central Europe and the Caucasus, using a diverse range of data sources and incorporating expert knowledge. The issue was reported to be widespread across the region and affects almost all countries/territories assessed. We estimated that 0.4–2.1 million birds per year may be killed/taken illegally in the region. The highest estimate of illegal killing in the region was for Azerbaijan (0.2-1.0 million birds per year). Out of the 20 worst locations identified, 13 were located in the Caucasus. Birds were reported to be illegally killed/taken primarily for sport and food in the Caucasus and for sport and predator/pest control in both Northern and Central Europe. All of the 28 countries assessed are parties to the Bern Convention and 19 are also European Union Member States. There are specific initiatives under both these policy instruments to tackle this threat, yet our data showed that illegal killing and taking is still occurring and is not restricted to Mediterranean European countries. Markedly increased effort is required to ensure that existing legislation is adequately implemented and complied with/enforced on the ground. Our study also highlighted the paucity of data on illegal killing and taking of birds in the region. It is a priority, identified by relevant initiatives under the Bern Convention and the European Union, to implement systematic monitoring of illegal killing and taking and to collate robust data, allowing stakeholders to set priorities, track trends and monitor the effectiveness of responses.

Birds that are long-distance migrants partition their annual cycle among a number of locations over a large spatial range. The conservation of these species is particularly complex because it requires attention to a number of different and distant habitats based on knowledge of migratory phenology, routes and staging areas. In the case of the globally threatened Aquatic Warbler Acrocephalus paludicola, a habitat specialist that breeds in Europe and spends the boreal winter in sub-Saharan Africa, non-breeding staging areas were widely unknown until recently. We applied light-level geolocators to adult male Aquatic Warblers at breeding sites in Belarus and Ukraine. Data from eight retrieved geolocators confirmed a south-west and then westward migration route through Europe via the northern Mediterranean with staging sites on the Iberian Peninsula and occasionally France and north-west Africa. In sub-Saharan Africa, final staging areas were in Mali, either in the Inner Niger Delta or at (presumably) small water bodies in the desert, with one bird most likely staying in the north of Ivory Coast south of the previously assumed range. The birds probably stayed in the final staging areas for most of the non-breeding season, but the logger on only one bird provided data throughout the entire migration cycle. Pre-nuptial migration of the latter was by a more easterly route than the southward migration. Our study suggests that conservation strategies for Aquatic Warbler north of the Sahara should include consideration of unknown staging sites in the northern Mediterranean as well as on the Iberian Peninsula and in north-west Africa. South of the Sahara, our study demonstrates the importance of the Sahel for the conservation of the Aquatic Warbler, including both the major floodplains of the Niger River and small Sahelian wetlands that are under pressure from human development.

BirdLife International´s Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBA) Programme has identified, documented and mapped over 13,000 sites of international importance for birds. IBAs have been influential with governments, multilateral agreements, businesses and others in: (1) informing governments’ efforts to expand protected area networks (in particular to meet their commitments through the Convention on Biological Diversity); (2) supporting the identification of Ecologically or Biologically Significant Areas (EBSAs) in the marine realm, (3) identifying Wetlands of International Importance under the Ramsar Convention; (4) identifying sites of importance for species under the Convention on Migratory Species and its sister agreements; (5) identifying Special Protected Areas under the EU Birds Directive; (6) applying the environmental safeguards of international finance institutions such as the International Finance Corporation; (7) supporting the private sector to manage environmental risk in its operations; and (8) helping donor organisations like the Critical Ecosystems Partnership Fund (CEPF) to prioritise investment in site-based conservation. The identification of IBAs (and IBAs in Danger: the most threatened of these) has also triggered conservation and management actions at site level, most notably by civil society organisations and local conservation groups. IBA data have therefore been widely used by stakeholders at different levels to help conserve a network of sites essential to maintaining the populations and habitats of birds as well as other biodiversity. The experience of IBA identification and conservation is shaping the design and implementation of the recently launched Key Biodiversity Areas (KBA) Partnership and programme, as IBAs form a core part of the KBA network.

United Arab Emirates is an important range country for the ‘Vulnerable’ Socotra Cormorant Phalacrocorax nigrogularis and Abu Dhabi Emirate holds most of the remaining breeding colonies. Emirate-wide monitoring of all breeding colonies was undertaken annually for 11 breeding seasons from 2006–2007 to 2016–2017 to monitor the status of breeding colonies and estimate the nesting population. Breeding was recorded in 10 colonies that were used intermittently with an average of four (± 1.3 SD) colonies active each year. The highest number of eight active colonies was recorded in 2016–2017. Establishment of two new breeding colonies on Butinah and Digala in 2016–2017 and recolonisation of three previously inactive colonies during the monitoring period emphasised the ability of the species to relocate and colonise suitable sites. Continued threats at some breeding colonies caused abandonment and subsequent relocation, resulting in a gradual shift of breeding colonies to safer areas. Presently, most of the breeding sites (62%) with an increased number of breeding birds are found in colonies with restricted access. The Emirate-wide nesting population witnessed a 10-fold increase in the last decade; after an initial decline in 2006–2007 it increased from about 5,000 pairs in 2007–2008 to nearly 52,000 nesting pairs in 2016–2017. Combined with the nesting population from the Siniya colony, the overall UAE nesting population is estimated at 60,000 to 70,000 pairs, nearly half of the global breeding population. Further augmentation of the current breeding numbers is possible if breeding colonies remain safe from human disturbance and invasive predators. For long-term conservation of Socotra Cormorant, protection of all remaining colony sites, including inactive ones, is important in addition to minimising disturbance along with widespread public awareness to change the people’s perception of the species as a competitor to commercial fisheries.

Arboreal birds tend to remain in woody vegetation and avoid crossing open areas. Therefore, few tree-dwelling birds are to be expected in scattered trees. We tested this expectation with field data collected in the deserts, savannas and open agricultural parklands of West Africa where woody cover in 1,327 stratified random study sites varied between 0.2 and 29%. We found no evidence that scattered trees were avoided. Instead, bird density in trees was independent of trees occurring clumped or singly. The presence of birds in an individual tree was related to tree species and tree-related variables, but not to woody cover or species composition of the surrounding woody vegetation. We hypothesise that scattered trees are not avoided because (1) travel time between trees is too short to have a negative impact on foraging time, (2) predation risk of arboreal passerines is very low (bird-hunting raptors are scarce in the deserts and savannas of West Africa and mostly prey on ground-feeding, not arboreal, birds), and (3) the probability of being chased away by other arboreal birds is less when trees are more scattered. Scattered trees are ecologically important since hundreds of millions of migratory woodland birds, of which several species are in decline, spend the northern winter in Africa in open, often human-modified, landscapes where trees are well spaced.

Thirty-two percent of bird species in South-East Asia are likely to become extinct by the end of this century. However, due to a lack of data this number may be an underestimate. The Chestnut-headed Partridge Arborophila cambodiana found in south-west Cambodia’s Cardamom Mountain range is a largely unknown potentially at-risk species. We used line transects and camera traps to survey A. cambodiana in four protected areas in the Cardamom Mountains to estimate population densities. We also assessed their current distribution range and broad scale habitat changes from 1996 to 2016. We found A. cambodiana in evergreen and semi-evergreen forest at a density of 1.23 calling males/km2, and at altitudes above 400 m and where the slope was between 11 and 43o. From 1996 to 2016 A. cambodiana’s potential habitat decreased by 11%, whilst the total evergreen forest cover in the Cardamom Mountains decreased by 20%. A. cambodiana has a very restricted range within which the habitat has been fragmented. Compounded by human disturbance and development activities that negatively affect the species, we suggest a revision of its IUCN Red List status from ‘Least Concern’ to ‘Near Threatened’ as it partially meets a range of threatened Red List species criteria.

Cambodia supports populations of three Critically Endangered vulture species that are believed to have become isolated from the rest of the species’ global range. Until recently Cambodia’s vulture populations had remained stable. However a recent spike in the number of reports of the use of poisons in hunting practices suggests the need to re-evaluate the conservation situation in Cambodia. Population trend analysis showed that since 2010 populations of the White-rumped Vulture Gyps bengalensis and Red-headed Vulture Sarcogyps calvus have declined, while the Slender-billed Vulture Gyps tenuirostris may also have started to decline since 2013. These trends are supported by evidence of reduced nesting success. A survey of veterinary drug availability revealed that diclofenac, the non-steroid anti-inflammatory drug responsible for vulture declines in South Asia was not available for sale in any of the 74 pharmacies surveyed. However, a poisoned Slender-billed Vulture tested positive for carbofuran in toxicology tests. This provides the first evidence of a vulture mortality resulting from carbofuran in Cambodia. The findings suggest the urgent need to tackle use of carbamate pesticides in hunting. Proposed conservation actions are: a) prevention of poisoning through national bans on harmful carbamate pesticides and diclofenac and education campaigns to reduce demand and use; b) training of personnel in priority protected areas in detection and response to poisoning incidents; c) maintenance of a safe and reliable food source through vulture restaurants to ensure short-term survival, and d) protection and restoration of large areas of deciduous dipterocarp forests to enable long-term species recovery.

The Japanese Murrelet Synthliboramphus wumizusume is a rare, globally ‘Vulnerable’ seabird, endemic to Japan and South Korea. However, little is known of its at-sea distribution, habitat or threats. We conducted several years of at-sea surveys around Japan to model Japanese Murrelet density in relation to habitat parameters, and make spatial predictions to assess the adequacy of the current Japanese marine Important Bird and Biodiversity Area (IBA) network for the species. During a five-year period, 3,485 km of at-sea surveys recorded 3,161 Japanese Murrelets around four breeding locations. Maximum murrelet group size was 90 individuals with a mean group size of 2.9 ± 4.2 individuals. Models of Japanese Murrelet at-sea density around the two largest breeding locations predicted that almost all murrelets occur within 30 km of the breeding colony and most within 10 km. Murrelets were predicted closer to the colony in May than in April and closer to the colony at a neritic colony than at an offshore island colony. Additionally, murrelets breeding on an offshore island colony also commuted to mainland neritic habitat for foraging. The marine habitat used by Japanese Murrelets differed between each of the four surveyed colonies, however oceanographic variables offered little explanatory power in models. Models with colony, month and year generated four foraging radii (9–39 km wide) containing murrelet densities of > 0.5 birds/km2. Using these radii the Japanese marine IBA network was found to capture between 95% and 25% of Japanese Murrelet at-sea habitat while breeding and appears appropriately configured to protect near-colony murrelet distributions. Given the range of marine habitats that breeding murrelets inhabit, our simple models offer an applicable method for predicting to unsampled colonies and generating ecologically-informed seaward extension radii. However, data on colony populations and further at-sea surveys are necessary to refine models and improve predictions.

The Chinese Crested Tern Thalasseus bernsteini (CCT) is likely the most critically endangered seabird species in Asia. The Matsu, Penghu, Jiushan, and Wuzhishan Archipelagos along the China coastline, plus Yeonggwang County in South Korea, are the five areas where this species is currently confirmed to breed. According to census and historical data collected in the Matsu Archipelago from 2004 to 2017, there was an average of 10 ± 4 adult CCT individuals at the Matsu Islands Tern Refuge (MITR) during the breeding season. CCT nested only in association with Greater Crested Terns T. bergii (GCT) among seven protected islands in the MITR, and the numbers of observed breeding individuals of the two species were positively correlated (r = 0.59, P < 0.001). We used generalized linear models to examine the effects of chlorophyll-a concentrations in surrounding marine habitats, typhoon frequency, and in-season shifts in colony location on inter-annual variation in numbers of breeding individuals and productivity (chick:adult ratios) of both CCT and GCT at the MITR from 2004 to 2017. Average chlorophyll-a concentrations during July-August obtained from the MODIS satellite were positively correlated with the annual maximum number of GCT at the MITR, but not that of CCT. In addition, we found that nest abandonment events during early incubation at the mixed-species colonies were associated with in-season shifts in colony location and delayed nesting chronology, thereby extending nesting into the peak typhoon season during July and August. The effects of in-season colony shifts on nesting chronology and the additive effects of typhoons caused a significant decline in CCT breeding success during the study period. We propose more rigorous monitoring to ascertain the root causes of in-season colony shifts of terns and then determine possible solutions. Additionally, creating educational programmes to increase public awareness towards seabird conservation could prove beneficial.

Knowledge of species-specific spatial ecology is critical for applying appropriate management strategies to maximise conservation outcomes. We used radio-telemetry to describe spatial behaviour of the critically endangered, island-endemic Mariana Crow Corvus kubaryi. To determine whether management strategies should reflect life stage, we measured the home ranges and daily movements of 22 Mariana Crows. Fledgling mobility was low during the first 31 days post-fledging and effects of age (fledgling or sub-adult) and time (months post-fledging or post-dispersal) were often driven entirely by this period. After controlling for reduced fledgling mobility, cumulative home range size increased over time for both age classes and was, on average, more than twice the area for sub-adults than fledglings. Sub-adults also tended to make longer daily movements than fledglings. Non-cumulative, monthly home range areas did not increase over time but the average overlap in home range area between consecutive months was only 63%, suggesting large shifts in space use each month. These results highlight the dynamic nature of Mariana Crow home ranges and suggest that large-scale management efforts are critical for protecting both breeding and non-breeding individuals. The application of the traditional home range concept to Mariana Crows and other wide-ranging passerine birds may result in sub-optimal management strategies. Instead, we recommend that the spatial and temporal scale of conservation efforts be informed by species-specific spatial behaviour across all relevant life stages.

The Canada Warbler Cardellina canadensis is a steeply declining Neotropical migratory bird and > 50% of its non-breeding range is within the Colombian Andes. Despite being an abundant migrant in Andean forests, the species’ elevational distribution and non-breeding ecology have yet to be studied, thereby precluding the design of effective conservation actions. During four non-breeding periods (2012–2016), we surveyed Colombia’s three Andean ranges, carrying out passive 5-minute point counts between 700 and 3,150 m asl in five habitats (mature forest, secondary growth, forest edges/riparian forest, shade coffee, sun coffee), recording the perpendicular distance, sex, foraging height, and association with mixed species flocks of Canada Warbler. Habitat variables were recorded at each point. Based on 819 passive point counts, Canada Warblers occupied elevations between 750 and 2,300 m, being more abundant between 1,000 and 2,200 m. Relative densities were higher in mature forest compared to shade coffee and secondary forest, and accordingly abundance increased with canopy height. There was no evidence for a difference in elevation or habitat use by males and females. Within forests, birds foraged at mid-levels, 5–15 m above the ground, and the probability of Canada Warblers occurring in mixed species flocks increased with elevation. Models of variation in relative density throughout the Eastern Andes showed a positive relation with cloud cover and above-ground forest biomass, implying a preference for humid, forested regions. Of the areas in the Eastern Andes with high predicted relative density, ∼ 14% overlapped with protected areas and we identify priority areas where protective measures could benefit the conservation status of the species. For maximum effectiveness, conservation actions should focus on protecting forest fragments and initiating reforestation projects at mid-elevations (1,000–2,200 m), as well as supporting agroforestry practices in humid regions of the Colombian Andes.

Populations of the White-rumped Vulture Gyps bengalensis, Indian Vulture G. indicus and Slender-billed Vulture G. tenuirostris declined rapidly during the mid-1990s all over their ranges in the Indian subcontinent because of poisoning due to veterinary use of the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac. This paper reports results from the latest in a series of road transect surveys conducted across northern, central, western and north-eastern India since the early 1990s. Results from the seven comparable surveys now available were analysed to estimate recent population trends. Populations of all three species of vulture remained at a low level. The previously rapid decline of White-rumped Vulture has slowed and may have reversed since the ban on veterinary use of diclofenac in India in 2006. A few thousand of this species, possibly up to the low tens of thousands, remained in India in 2015. The population of Indian Vulture continued to decline, though probably at a much slower rate than in the 1990s. This remains the most numerous of the three species in India with about 12,000 individuals in 2015 and a confidence interval ranging from a few thousands to a few tens of thousands. The trend in the rarest species, Slender-billed Vulture, which probably numbers not much more than 1,000 individuals in India, cannot be determined reliably.

Timneh Parrots Psittacus timneh are a threatened species endemic to the moist forests of West Africa. In 2016, they were categorised as ‘Endangered’ on the IUCN Red List, due to suspected rapid population declines driven by habitat loss and heavy trapping for the pet trade. Systematic assessments of the status of populations are lacking for much of their range and addressing this knowledge shortfall has been identified as a priority action. We combined multiple research approaches to investigate the distribution, trends and threats to Timneh Parrots in Guinea Bissau, where the species is restricted to the islands of the Bijagós archipelago and Pecixe. Direct observational surveys were conducted along line transects on 19 islands. A total of 69 groups were observed on eight of these islands, with the majority (78%) seen on just two islands. Forty-two interviews were conducted with local community members on 24 islands. Interviewees reported the species to occur on 20 islands and that populations are generally perceived to have declined in recent decades. Based on these findings and existing data we conclude that Timneh Parrots occur on 22 of the 32 islands considered and estimate the national population in Guinea-Bissau to be in the order of several hundred individuals, with perhaps half of the parrots occurring on the islands of João Vieira and Meio. Investigations into the factors linked to inter-island variation in parrot densities indicate that densities are highest on the islands which are most remote from permanent human settlements. These findings suggest that human activities including habitat modification and trapping have been important in driving population declines in Guinea-Bissau. We consider the implications of these findings for the conservation of Timneh Parrots.

During their flightless summer moult, Taiga Bean Geese Anser fabalis fabalis gather at communal moulting sites. Individuals from the Nord-Trøndelag breeding area in Norway have been observed to join with local individuals on moulting sites in Vilhelmina Municipality, Sweden. These two groups show distinct features in breeding habitat and migratory behaviour, but are they also genetically distinct? We used 12 microsatellite loci for genotyping 109 blood, feather and faecal samples from three sampling areas (Røyrvik in Norway and Stalon and Nästansjö in Sweden) to examine genetic diversity and structure. Clustering and Principal Coordinate analyses of all samples unveiled at least two distinct clusters, which were unevenly distributed over the sampling sites. Grouped by sampling sites, AMOVA and FST analyses showed that samples from the three sites differed genetically. These differences were larger between Røyrvik and Nästansjö than between Stalon and the other two. Relatedness was high among the Røyrvik samples. From our results we conclude that one of the clusters describes the Røyrvik breeding subpopulation, while the other(s) breed mainly in Sweden. Although these subpopulations simultaneously use the same moulting area in Vilhelmina, they appear to be ecologically, behaviourally and genetically distinct, in particular the Røyrvik sub-population. For goose conservation and management, we suggest that the Nord-Trøndelag (Røyrvik) subpopulation is considered a separate flyway management unit. Unravelling the Swedish sub-populations will need further study. For bird conservation is general, we suggest active genetic sampling for detailed population structure analyses and subsequent differentiated conservation and/or management schemes.

Changes in food availability that lead to lower reproductive output or lower survival probability are important drivers of the widespread declines in vulture populations. Permanent feeding stations for scavengers, such as vulture restaurants or rubbish dumps, may have both positive and negative effects on reproductive parameters. Here we examine the effects of the closure of a large communal rubbish dump on breeding success and fledging rate of a dense population of the ’Endangered’ Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus in central Turkey to assess whether the closure may have affected the population. We monitored territories from 2011 to 2016, and tested whether the closure of the rubbish dump in early 2015 coincided with changes in reproductive parameters while accounting for confounding variables such as weather and the availability of other predictable foraging opportunities. We found an average productivity of 0.78 fledglings per territorial pair before the dump closed and 0.82 after the closure, an average breeding success of 0.64 before and 0.71 after the closure, and an average fledging rate of 1.17 fledglings per successful pair before and 1.26 after the closure of the rubbish dump. Once confounding variables were accounted for, the closure of the rubbish dump did not have a significant effect on reproductive parameters (P = 0.426 for nest survival and P = 0.786 for fledging rate). We speculate that the Egyptian Vulture population in central Turkey may have sufficient alternative food sources and high levels of intra-specific competition due to its density, so that the closure of the rubbish dump may not have resulted in detectable positive or negative effects. We recommend the maintenance of small traditional animal husbandry farms and disposal practices that mimic the spatio-temporally unpredictable supply of food sources that appears to be most beneficial for avian scavengers.

Despite many notable successes, the failure rate of animal translocations remains high. Conservation practitioners and reintroduction specialists have emphasised the need for ongoing documentation of translocation attempts, whether successful or not, including detailed methodologies and monitoring approaches. This study reports on the first translocation of the North Island subspecies of New Zealand’s smallest bird, the endemic Rifleman Acanthisitta chloris granti. We describe an improved transfer methodology following recommendations arising from a previous translocation of South Island Rifleman Acanthisitta chloris chloris. Key modifications included a reduced capture window, shorter holding times, lack of extended aviary housing, and separation of territorial individuals during holding. Survival from capture to release increased from 52% to 97% using this new methodology. However, only 22% of 83 released birds were found in the reserve the next breeding season, resulting in an initial breeding population of only six males and five females. An integrated Bayesian analysis of three years of subsequent population data, including a population boost from a second translocation, projected a median decrease to 0–5 females over 10 years, but with 95% prediction intervals ranging from 0 to 33. These projections explicitly account for parameter uncertainty, as well as demographic stochasticity, and illustrate the need to do so when making inferences for small reintroduced populations.