Ongoing atmospheric warming causes rapid shrinking of glaciers in the European Alps, with a high chance of their near-complete disappearance by the end of the 21st century. Here we present a comparison of three independent approaches to model the possible evolution of the glaciers in the Swiss Alps over the 21st century. The models have different levels of complexity, work at a regional scale and are forced with three scenarios of temperature increase (low, moderate, high). The moderate climate scenario gives an increase in air temperature of ∼2°C and ∼4°C for the two scenario periods 2021-50 and 2070-99, respectively, resulting in an area loss of 60-80% by 2100. In reality, the shrinkage could be even faster, as the observed mean annual thickness loss is already stronger than the modelled one. The three approaches lead to rather similar results with respect to the overall long-term evolution. The choice of climate scenarios produces the largest spread (∼40%) in the final area loss, while the uncertainty in present-day ice-thickness estimation causes about half this spread.

Vestfonna ice cap, northeastern Svalbard, is one of the largest ice bodies in the European Arctic, but little is known about the evolution of its mass balance. This study presents a reconstruction of the climatic mass balance of the ice cap for the period 1979/80-2010/11. The reconstruction is based on calculations using a mass-balance model that combines a surface-elevation-dependent accumulation scheme with a spatially distributed temperature-index ablation model that includes net shortwave radiation. Refreezing is included, based on the basic Pmax approach. The model accounts for cloud-cover effects and surface albedo variations that are calculated by a statistical albedo model. ERA-Interim derived air temperature, precipitation and total cloud-cover data are used as input. Results reveal a mean climatic mass-balance rate of +0.09 ± 0.15 m w.e. a–1 for the study period. Annual balances show a slight, insignificant trend towards less positive values over the study period. Refreezing is estimated to contribute about one-third to annual accumulation, and a significant positive trend in refreezing is present over the study period. The modelling results reveal a significant steepening of the climatic mass-balance gradient and indicate a lengthening of the characteristic 3 month ablation period in recent years.

Spring snow cover across Arctic lands has, on average, retreated ∼5 days earlier since the late 1980s compared to the previous 20 years. However, it appears that since about the late 1980s the date the snowline first retreats north during the spring has changed only slightly: in the last ∼20 years snow has not been disappearing significantly earlier. Snowmelt changes observed since the late 1980s have been step-like, unlike the more continuous downward trend seen in Arctic sea-ice extent. At 70° N, several longitudinal segments (of 10°) show significant (negative) trends, while only two longitudinal segments at 60° N show significant trends, one positive and one negative. These variations appear to be related to variations in the Arctic Oscillation (AO). When the springtime AO is strongly positive, snow melts earlier. When it is strongly negative, snow disappears later in the spring. The winter AO is less straightforward. At higher latitudes (70° N), a positive AO during the winter months is correlated with later snowmelt, but at lower latitudes (50° N and 60° N) a positive wintertime AO is correlated with earlier snowmelt. If the AO during the winter months is negative, the reverse is true. Similar stepwise changes (since the late 1980s) have been noted in sea surface temperatures and in phytoplankton abundance as well as in snow cover.

Spatial degree-day factors (DDFs) are required for spatial snowmelt modeling over large areas by the degree-day method. We propose a method to obtain DDFs by incorporating snow disappearance dates (SDDs), derived from 10 day composites of Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre (SPOT)/VEGETATION data, into the degree-day method. This approach allowed determination of DDFs for each gridpoint so as to better reflect regional characteristics than use of spatially constant DDFs obtained from point measurements. Simulations at six observation sites successfully accounted for variations in snow water equivalent (SWE), even at elevations different from the closest measurement site. These results suggest that incorporating satellite-derived SDDs into the degree-day method decreases spatial uncertainty compared with the use of spatially constant DDFs. Application of our method to Japanese cold regions revealed that gridded DDFs were negatively correlated with accumulated positive degree-days (APDDs) and were high only when APDDs were low. These results imply that high DDFs resulted from the dominant contribution of solar radiation to snowmelt at low temperatures and that low DDFs resulted from a relatively high contribution of sensible heat flux at high temperatures. The proposed method seems to adequately account for the main energetic components of snowmelt during the snow-cover season over large areas.

The role of melting at the base of temperate tidewater glaciers is rarely discussed, and its potential importance for total glacier mass balance and subglacial dynamics is often overlooked. We use Columbia Glacier, Alaska, USA, as an example of a temperate tidewater glacier to estimate the spatial distribution of basal melt due to friction both before and during the glacier’s well-documented retreat since the early 1980s. Published data on glacier surface and bed profiles, ice-flow velocities and surface melt were collated and used as input data for a two-dimensional basal melt model. We estimate that before the retreat of Columbia Glacier (pre-1980s), mean basal melt amounted to 61 mm a–1, increasing to 129 mma–1 during retreat (post-1980s). According to our calculations, basal melt accounts for 3% and 5% of total glacier melt for the pre-retreat and syn-retreat (i.e. during retreat) glacier profiles, respectively. These calculations of basal melt are an order of magnitude greater than those typically reported in polar glacier settings. Basal melting in temperate tidewater settings may be a non-negligible process affecting glacier mass balance and subglacial dynamics.

This study determines variations in ice extent of Nevado Illimani, Bolivia (16°38' S, 67°44' W), from 1963 to 2009. The results are compared with net accumulation rate variations obtained from a local ice core. We then propose an interpretation of the recent environmental history (last 46 years) of the region based on a study of remotely sensed and ice-core data. From 1963 to 2009, Nevado Illimani lost a total ice area of 9.49 ±1.09 km2, a 35% reduction. Area variations generally followed variations in net accumulation rates during this period. Despite the current glacier area reduction trend, the Nevado Illimani glaciers will not completely disappear in the next few decades.

High-density snow layers deteriorate grazing conditions for reindeer during winter. We compare two different methods for identifying past winters with difficult grazing conditions for reindeer in Kautokeino, northern Norway. A long-term climate analysis based on monthly values of precipitation and temperature (1900–2011) demonstrated that the reported winters were difficult to identify systematically. The processes leading to hard layers or ground-ice layers occur on daily, not monthly, timescales, and whether or not specific conditions are problematic depends on the development throughout the winter, not just on single values. To better analyse the weather conditions and development over time that favour the formation of high-density snow layers, we apply the multilayer model SNOWPACK over the period 1956–2010. We simulate the evolution of the snowpack by forcing the model with 6 hour interval meteorological data. The model output was analysed by summing up the vertical extent of the simulated high-density snow layers (>350 kg m–3) for each winter. These results were compared with historical records of difficult winter grazing conditions reported in the period 1956–2010. In particular, the heavy losses of reindeer during the catastrophic 1967/68 winter were caused by the occurrence of ground ice together with long snow-cover duration. This unfavourable coincidence is well reproduced by our model results, together with eight of the ten reported difficult winters.

Sea-ice thicknesses observed in Canadian coastal waters with helicopter-borne electromagnetic–laser sensors show large interannual variability caused by atmospheric fluctuations in two years for two areas where surveys were repeated, one in the Amundsen Gulf of the Canadian Beaufort Sea and one over the Labrador Shelf. For the Amundsen Gulf, the bimodal ice thickness peaks shifted by 40 cm to thinner thicknesses for the warmer winter of 2008 compared with 2004. The thinner ice in 2008 can be explained partially by reduced thermodynamic ice growth during the warmer winter of 2008. In addition, winds from the east were more persistent throughout the winter of 2008, increasing ice export from the Amundsen Gulf and thereby creating open-water areas where new ice growth in late winter produced the thinner ice classes. For the Labrador Shelf, the mean ice thicknesses of the warmer winter of 2011 (0.71 m) were much less than those of the near-normal winter of 2009 (1.60 m). Again the difference can be explained by the fact that along the entire Labrador Shelf the winter of 2011 was much warmer, reducing ice growth and resulting in thinner ice locally and thinner ice being transported into the survey region from northern latitudes. In addition, northwesterly winds occurred less frequently during the winter of 2011, reducing the transport of relatively thicker ice into the survey area from northern latitudes.

The dynamics of a surge is manifested in the crevasse patterns: literally, deformation state frozen in ice. This basic observation is utilized as the concept of an automated approach to map and analyze deformation stages and progression of surge kinematics. The classification method allows imagery to be used as geophysical data and is applied to aerial observations (photographic and video imagery, GPS data) collected in September 2011 during the surge of the Bering Glacier–Bagley Ice Valley system, Alaska, USA. As the third dimension that complements two-dimensional imagery, ice-surface elevation is observed using aerial laser altimetry. The classification method builds on concepts from signal processing, geostatistical data analysis and neural networks. Steps include calculation of generalized directional vario functions from image data and composition into feature vectors. The vario function operates as an information filter that retains spatial characteristics at an intermediate scale that captures crevasse spacing, anisotropy and other generalized roughness properties. Association of feature vectors to crevasse classes and hence deformation types employs a connectionist algorithm. In general, the connectionist–geostatistical classification allows the mapping of kinematic changes in crevassed glaciers.

Dedicated to the memory of Austin Post

We introduce a method to construct an ice thickness chart using two satellite datasets and a one-dimensional high-resolution thermodynamic snow and sea-ice model (HIGHTSI). Thin-ice thickness up to 40 cm is retrieved using MODIS ice surface temperature data. For thicker ice, thickness is retrieved from a combination of SAR image and background level ice thickness chart Hi provided by HIGHTSI. Because Hi is inherently static, we utilize passive microwave data based sea-ice concentration charts to introduce mesoscale ice dynamics into Hi. In order to create the thickness chart, the value of modified Hi is scaled by a factor which depends on the magnitude of backscattering coefficient σ0. The proposed method is effective in cold winter conditions. We calculated a series of ice thickness charts covering the Kara Sea, Arctic Russia, during winter 2008/09. The ice thickness charts were validated against Russian ice charts. Our method gave realistic results in the thickness range 30–120 cm and was uncertain for the detection of thinner-ice areas. Due to the limitations in our reference dataset, more validation work is needed to establish the accuracy in more detail. Our thickness charts can be used for operational purposes and in climate studies.

A basal zone, tens of meters thick, of debris-laden ice was observed in Kamb Ice Stream, West Antarctica, using a video camera lowered into boreholes made by hot-water drilling. The debris content varies, sometimes abruptly, forming a sequence of layers that reflect the complex history of fast ice flow and bed interaction. In most parts, the concentration of debris is low, a few percent by weight, with particles, often mud clots, dispersed in a matrix of clear ice. The nature of the debris distribution can be interpreted in terms of specific time intervals in the history of fast motion of Kamb Ice Stream including processes leading up to the termination of its streaming behavior and possible reactivation.

Rijpfjorden (808 N, 22° E) is a high-Arctic fjord on Nordaustlandet in the Svalbard archipelago. To monitor the thermodynamic change of sea ice in spring, an ice mass-balance buoy (IMB) was deployed for 2.5 months (10 April–26 June 2011), with accompanying in situ measurements, sea-ice sampling on three occasions and ice-core analysis. Uncertainties and sources of error in in situ measurements and IMB data are discussed. The in situ measurements, ice-core analysis and IMB data together depict the development of snow and ice in spring. Snow and ice thickness exhibited large spatial and temporal variability. After relatively stable conditions with only little change in ice thickness and accumulation of snow, a layer of superimposed ice ∼0.06 m thick formed at the snow-ice interface due to refreezing of snow meltwater in late spring. Ice thickness (except for growth of superimposed ice) did not change significantly based on in situ observations. In contrast, the under-ice sonar data from the IMB show reflections from a layer deeper than the underside of the ice during the melting phase. This can be explained as a reflection of the sonar pulses from an interface between a freshwater layer under the ice and more saline water below, or as a false-bottom formation.

The 2008/09 surge of central Yulinchuan glacier (CYG) on the northwestern slope of Muztag mountain, Tibetan Plateau, is studied based on satellite remote sensing. The widely used cross-correlation feature-tracking method was used to collect satellite image control points and validate their geometric accuracies, as well as to derive glacier surface velocity. Changes in glacier length and area were also retrieved. Results show that the surge of CYG initiated in May 2008 and terminated in July 2009. Two diffluent glacier termini advanced 590 ± 26 m (5.1 ± 0.2% of the 2004 length) and 182 ± 26m (1.8 ± 0.3%), respectively, and glacier area increased by ∼1.41 ± 0.11 km2 (4.6 ± 0.4% of the 2004 area) during this period. The most significant surge period was October 2008 to March 2009, when most of the terminus advances and area increases occurred. The glacier surface drastically crevassed during this time, as much as 1657 ± 297 m of horizontal surface displacements were produced by surge ice, and maximum surface speed reached 13 ± 1.5 m d-1. Results of transverse and longitudinal velocity profiles revealed two surge waves during this surge of CYG.

We investigate the sensitivity of a distributed enhanced temperature-index (ETI) melt model, in order to understand which parameters have the largest influence on model outputs and thus need to be accurately known. We use melt and meteorological data from two Alpine glaciers and one glacier in the Andes of Chile. Sensitivity analysis is conducted in a systematic way in terms of parameters and the different conditions (day, night, clear-sky, overcast), melt seasons and glaciers examined. The sensitivity of total melt to changes in individual parameters is calculated using a local method around the optimal value of the parameters. We verify that the parameters are optimal at the distributed scale and assess the model uncertainty induced by uncertainty in the parameters using a Monte Carlo technique. Model sensitivity to parameters is consistent across melt seasons, glaciers, different conditions and the daily statistics examined. The parameters to which the model is most sensitive are the shortwave-radiation factor, the temperature lapse rate for extrapolation of air temperature, the albedo parameters, the temperature threshold and the cloud transmittance factor parameters. A parameter uncertainty of 5% results in a model uncertainty of 5.6% of mean melt on Haut Glacier d’Arolla, Switzerland.

Variability of sea-ice and snow conditions on the scale of a few hundred meters is examined using in situ measurements collected in first-year pack ice in the European Arctic north of Svalbard. Snow thickness and surface elevation measurements were performed in the standard manner using a snow stick and a rotating laser. Altogether, 4109 m of measurement lines were surveyed. The snow loading was large, and in many locations the ice freeboard was negative (38.8% of snowline measurements), although the modal ice and snow thickness was 1.8 m. The mean of all the snow thickness measurements was 36 cm, with a standard deviation of 26 cm. The mean freeboard was only 3 cm, with a standard deviation of 23 cm. There were noticeable differences in snow thickness among the measurement sites. Over the undeformed ice areas, the mean snow thickness and freeboard were 23 and 2.4 cm, respectively. Over the ridged ice areas, the mean freeboard was only –0.3 cm due to snow accumulation on the sails of ridges (average thickness 54 cm). These findings imply that retrieval algorithms for converting freeboard to ice thickness should take account of spatial variability of snow cover.

Despite containing only 14% of the Greenland ice sheet by area, the southeastern sector has the highest accumulation rates, and hence receives ∼30% of the total snow accumulation. We present accumulation rates obtained during our 2010 Arctic Circle Traverse derived from three 50 m firn cores dated using geochemical analysis. We tracked continuous internal reflection horizons between the firn cores using a 400 MHz ground-penetrating radar (GPR). GPR data combined with depth-age scales from the firn cores provide accumulation rates along a 70 km transect. We followed an elevation gradient from ∼2350 to ∼1830m to understand how progressive surface melt may affect the ability to chemically date the firn cores and trace the internal layers with GPR. From the firn cores, we find a 52% (∼0.43 m w.e. a-1) increase in average snow accumulation and greater interannual variability at the lower site than the upper site. The GPR profiling reveals that accumulation rates are influenced by topographic undulations on the surface, with up to 23% variability over 7 km. These measurements confirm the presence of high accumulation rates in the southeast as predicted by the calibrated regional climate model Polar MM5.

Based on recent studies on sea ice and newly developed technologies, this paper examines the requirements and environmental factors for exploitation of sea ice as a freshwater resource. Considering the ‘mining’ of sea ice, the suitability of locations in the Bohai Sea, China, for exploitation was analysed and evaluated using GIS technology. The ice must be >10 cm thick, the intertidal zone must be narrow and the ‘mining’ area must have a water depth of at least 2 m. The sea areas with feasible resources are located mainly in the nearshore area of northern Liaodong Bay and in a narrow and long area along the coast of Bohai Bay. Most coastal areas of northern Liaodong Bay have favourable conditions, while Bohai Bay is widely constrained by unsuitable conditions. According to the status of the resources and the coastal environment conditions, the eastern and western coasts of northern Liaodong Bay are the most suitable areas for exploitation at the current technological level.

This study presents results from an Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) mapping survey of snow depth on the mountain plateau Hardangervidda, Norway, in 2008 and 2009 at the approximate time of maximum snow accumulation during the winter. The spatial extent of the survey area is >240 km2. Large variability is found for snow depth at a local scale (2 m2), and similar spatial patterns in accumulation are found between 2008 and 2009. The local snow-depth measurements were aggregated by averaging to produce new datasets at 10, 50, 100, 250 and 500 m2 and 1 km2 resolution. The measured values at 1 km2 were compared with simulated snow depth from the seNorge snow model (www.senorge.no), which is run on a 1 km2 grid resolution. Results show that the spatial variability decreases as the scale increases. At a scale of about 500 m2 to 1 km2 the variability of snow depth is somewhat larger than that modeled by seNorge. This analysis shows that (1) the regional-scale spatial pattern of snow distribution is well captured by the seNorge model and (2) relatively large differences in snow depth between the measured and modeled values are present.

We use a physical model to investigate how changes in subglacial hydrology affect ice motion of Antarctic ice streams. Ice streams are modelled using silicone polymer placed over a thin water layer to mimic ice flow dominated by basal sliding. The model ice-stream force balance is calculated and compared directly to the observed force balance of Whillans Ice Stream (WIS). Dynamic similarity between the model and WIS is achieved when their force balances are equivalent. The WIS force balance has evolved over time owing to increased basal resistance. We test two hypotheses: (1) the subglacial water distribution influences the ice-flow speed and thus the force balance; (2) shear margins are locations where transitions in water layer thickness occur. We find that the velocity and force balance are sensitive to pulsed water discharge events and changes in lubrication that result in sticky spots, and that model shear margins tend to overlie water lubrication boundaries. We conclude that local changes in basal lubrication near margins (possibly as a result of the presence of sticky spots or subglacial lakes) influence the stability of ice-stream margin position and may be responsible for large and rapid shifts in margin location.

We have reconstructed the ice thickness distribution of the Morteratsch glacier complex, Switzerland, and used this to simulate its flow with a higher-order 3-D model. Ice thickness was measured along transects with a ground-penetrating radar and further extended over the entire glacier using the plastic flow assumption and a distance-weighted interpolation technique. We find a maximum ice thickness of 350 ±52.5 m for the central trunk of Vadret da Morteratsch, resulting from a bedrock overdeepening. The average thickness of the glacier complex is 72.2 ±18.0 m, which corresponds to a total ice volume of 1.14 ± 0.28 km3. The flow of the glacier is modelled by tuning the rate factor and the sliding parameters taking into account higher-order terms in the force balance. The observed velocities can be reproduced closely (root-mean-square error of 15.0 m a-1, R2 = 0.93) by adopting a sliding factor of 12 x 10–16 m7 N–3 a-1 and a rate factor of 1.6 x 10-16 Pa-3 a-1 . In this setting, ice deformation accounts for 70% of the surface velocity and basal sliding for the remaining 30%. The modelled velocity field reaches values up to 125 ma-1, but also indicates an almost stagnant front and confluence area, which are crucial for understanding the ongoing glacier retreat.