A 2500 year integration has been performed with a global coupled atmospheric-sea-ice-ocean model of intermediate complexity with the main objective of studying the climate variability in polar regions on decadal time-scales and longer. The atmospheric component is the ECBILT model, a spectral T21 three-level quasi-geostrophic model that includes a representation of horizontal and vertical heat transfers as well as of the hydrological cycle. ECBILT is coupled to the CLIO model, which consists of a primitive-equation free-surface ocean general circulation model and a dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice model. Comparison of model results with observations shows that the ECBILT-CLIO model is able to reproduce reasonably well the climate of the high northern latitudes. The dominant mode of coupled variability between the atmospheric circulation and sea-ice cover in the simulation consists of an annular mode for geopotential height at 800 hPa and of a dipole between the Barents and Labrador Seas for the sea-ice concentration which are similar to observed patterns of variability. In addition, the simulation displays strong decadal variability in the sea-ice volume, with a significant peak at about 18 years. Positive volume anomalies are caused by (1) a decrease in ice export through Fram Strait associated with more anticyclonic winds at high latitudes, (2) modifications in the freezing/melting rates in the Arctic due to lower air temperature and higher surface albedo, and (3) a weaker heat flux at the ice base in the Barents and Kara seas caused by a lower inflow of warm Atlantic water. Opposite anomalies occur during the volume-decrease phase of the oscillation.

In this study we investigate the relationship of the atmospheric circulation and the sea-ice distribution in the Laptev Sea, Arctic Ocean, in the summers 1979−96. Sea-ice data from passive-microwave radiometers, global atmospheric data analyses, cyclone statistics and simulations of the regional climate model HIRHAM4 were analyzed to find out if periods of reduced or increased sea-ice concentrations are linked to synoptic patterns (circulation anomalies, cyclone activity). A canonical correlation analysis between Arctic sea-level pressure and sea-ice concentration anomalies confirms large-scale relationships among these variables. We did not find a simple relationship between sea-ice area anomalies and cyclone activity in the Laptev Sea area

The Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) is identified by White and Peterson (1996) as anomalies in sea-level pressure, meridional wind stress (MWS), sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice extent (SIE) propagating eastward over the Southern Ocean. In this study, the ACW is examined using a global coupled ice-ocean model with an average horizontal grid size of 1/4°. The model is forced with 1979−93 daily average atmospheric data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) re-analysis (ERA). The sea-ice model includes both dynamics and thermodynamics, and the ocean model is a primitive-equation, free-surface, z-coordinate model. Both standing and propagating oscillations are present in ERA surface net heat-flux (NHF) and MWS anomalies. The ocean and ice respond to such atmospheric forcing with similar standing and propagating oscillations. For the propagating mode, SIE, SST and sea-surface salinity anomalies propagate eastward with a period of about 4−5 years and take about 8−9 years to encircle the Antarctic continent. Thus, the simulated ACW is a wavenumber-2 phenomenon which agrees with the ACW identified by White and Peterson (1996). The correctly simulated strength of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which governs the phase speed of oceanic anomalies, in our high-resolution model is essential for obtaining the observed wavenumber-2 ACW mode in the ocean. The ACW signature is also present in ocean temperature and salinity anomalies down to about 1000 m depth with similar eastward-propagating speed. The anomalies in the interior ocean are more coherent and intense over the Pacific and Atlantic sectors than over the Indian sector. Northward (southward) MWS anomalies, northward (southward) SIE anomalies, cold (warm) SST anomalies and saltier (fresher) than normal salinity anomalies are in phase, while less (more) than normal NHF is 90° out of phase with them, indicating the ACW in sea ice and ocean is a response to that in the atmosphere.

Results from a regional model of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice forced with realistic atmospheric data are analyzed to understand recent climate variability in the region. The primary simulation uses daily-averaged 1979 atmospheric fields repeated for 20 years and then continues with interannual forcing derived from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts for 1979−98. An eastward shift in the ice-ocean circulation, fresh-water distribution and Atlantic Water extent has been determined by comparing conditions between the early 1980s and 1990s. A new trend is modeled in the late 1990s, and has a tendency to return the large-scale sea-ice and upper ocean conditions to their state in the early 1980s. Both the sea-ice and the upper ocean circulation as well as fresh-water export from the Russian shelves and Atlantic Water recirculation within the Eurasian Basin indicate that the Arctic climate is undergoing another shift. This suggests an oscillatory behavior of the Arctic Ocean system. Interannual atmospheric variability appears to be the main and sufficient driver of simulated changes. The ice cover acts as an effective dynamic medium for vorticity transfer from the atmosphere into the ocean.

The primary goal of this paper is to demonstrate the dependence of Arctic Ocean sea-ice transport pathways on climate variations. We build our analysis on the results of Proshutinsky and Johnson (1997), Johnson and others (1999), Polyakov and others (1999) and Proshutinsky and others (1999), where we have shown that wind-driven ice motion and upper ocean circulation alternate between anticyclonic and cyclonic states. Shifts between regimes occur at 5−7 year intervals, resulting in a 10−15 year period. The anticyclonic circulation regime has been observed in our model results for 1946−52,1958−62,1972−79,1984−88 and 1998−present. The cyclonic circulation regime prevailed during 1953−57,1963−71,1980−83 and 1989−97. The regime shifts are fundamentally important to understanding the Arctic’s general circulation and particularly useful for estimating pollution transport by sea ice and surface waters. It is important to pollution studies to understand which circulation regime prevails. Initially, we simulate trajectories of a non-reactive, conservative soluble tracer. Results from this research demonstrate realistic potential flow pathlines and we describe how those pathlines change in response to climate forcing. These results can be used to aid current and future scenario risk assessments and may provide management agencies with the tools to determine where risks from contaminants might exist.

The present and future ice conditions around 100 years from present in the Baltic Sea are examined by two 10 year integrations of an ice-ocean model. Results from atmospheric climate-model simulations constitute the atmospheric forcing, one representing present climate conditions (control simulation), and the other global warming due to CO2 doubling (scenario simulation). The present-day climatological ice conditions and the interannual variability were realistically reproduced by the ice-ocean model. The modelled range of the maximum annual ice extent in the Baltic was 190−420 × 103km2 in the control simulation and 50−270 × 103km2 in the scenario simulation. The range of the annual maximum level-ice thickness was 45−85 and 20−58 cm in the control and scenario simulations, respectively.

A coupled ice-ocean model is used to study the sensitivity of the Beaufort Sea climatology to representation of sub-grid-scale eddies; to hypothetically not present and double Mackenzie River discharge; and to approximate climate warming specified through a surface air-temperature increase of 3° C. The eddy effect is considered in two ways: as eddy interaction with sea-floor topography yielding a driving force ("neptune" parameterization) and as eddy diffusion and viscosity. The model with neptune parameterization reproduces surface layer circulation, as well as the bathymetrically steered Beaufort Undercurrent, while the model with usual damping does not simulate the Beaufort Undercurrent. The absence of the strong boundary Beaufort Undercurrent affects the thermohaline structure of the Beaufort Sea which becomes less consistent with observational data. The increase of the Mackenzie River discharge causes more northward transport of sea ice, resulting in sea-ice thinning in Mackenzie Bay, while the absence of the Mackenzie River discharge induces southward sea-ice drift and sea-ice thickening in Mackenzie Bay. The sensitivity study of surface air-temperature warming shows a shrinkage of sea ice by 6% in area and 15% in volume, causing the freshening and warming of the surface ocean layer. The sensitivity studies of river discharge and surface air temperature use the neptune parameterization.

To investigate the Arctic Ocean Circulation, results from a high-resolution fully global ocean model have been analyzed. The results come from two runs of the Ocean Circulation and Climate Advanced Modelling project (OCCAM) model, developed and run by the Southampton Oceanography Centre, at 1/4° × 1/4° and 1/8° × 1/8° resolution. The model is based on the Bryan-Semtner-Cox model and has 36 vertical levels. Enhancements include a free surface, an improved advection scheme and an improved treatment of the surface fresh-water flux. The model is forced with a monthly European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts wind-stress climatology. It reproduces many of the fine-scale features found in the Arctic Ocean. The analysis concentrates on several of the key features, including the highly energetic eddy system in the western part of the Beaufort Sea, East Greenland West and Spitsbergen Currents and the detailed structure of the marginal currents along the Siberian and Canadian coasts. Much of the paper is focused on the water transport through the Bering and Fram Straits and through the Canadian Archipelago. Comparisons of the model net fluxes through the straits against observations are presented. The analyses of the results demonstrate the ability of the fine-resolution model to simulate features such as small-scale eddies and jets, which have some agreement with the limited observations available.

A coupled atmosphere-sea-ice model is used to study the sensitivity of the Antarctic sea-ice distribution to oceanic heat flux (OHF). Remote sensing of sea ice from microwave radiometers provides data on ice extent and ice concentration. The ice-thickness data used are from ship-based observations. Our simulations suggest that OHF values of 0−5 W m−2 will cause sea ice to be too thick in the model. A value of 20−25 Wm−2 throughout the year causes sea ice to be too thin in the model. The model results indicate that a seasonally varying OHF is required to match the modelled thickness with observations. Values of 5−30 Wm with an annual mean of 10−15 Wm−2, give a reasonable distribution of sea-ice thickness. This agrees with the limited observations of OHF available for the Antarctic. The model results also indicate that the OHF should be varied spatially. When a seasonally and spatially variable OHF is applied to the coupled atmosphere-sea-ice model a still better simulation of the sea-ice distribution is obtained. Our results also suggest that the role of ice advection is very important in the determination of the sea-ice distribution, and it can be quantified by the model.

An assessment is presented of the extent and variability of Antarctic sea ice in the non-flux-corrected version of the Hadley Centre’s coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (HadCM3). The results are based on a 100 year segment of a long control run of the model with the sea ice being compared to ice extents and concentrations derived from passive microwave satellite data. Over the year as a whole, the model ice extent (the area with >15% ice concentration) is 91% of that determined from satellite imagery, but, not surprisingly, the regional-scale distribution differs from the observed. Throughout the year there is too much ice near 90° E, which is believed to be present as a result of incorrect ocean currents near Kerguelen. In contrast to the satellite data, there is too little ice to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula as a result of anomalously northerly atmospheric flow, compared to observations. During the winter the sea-ice concentrations in the model are too high, possibly as a result of the simple representation of the sea ice, which does not simulate complex dynamical interactions within the pack. The annual cycle of sea-ice advance/retreat in the model has a phase error, with the winter sea-ice maximum extent being too late by about 1 month.