We measured the N2/O2 ratios in clathrate hydrate crystals from Vostok Antarctic ice cores using Raman spectroscopy in order to investigate the spatial distribution of air molecules within a crystal. The results showed that the pattern of the spatial distribution of air molecules in clathrate hydrate depends on the crystal. Some clathrate hydrates have inhomogeneous distributions of the N2/O2 ratio within the crystals, while others are practically homogeneous. The spatial distribution of air molecules within an individual clathrate hydrate changes with time due to three processes: (1) the initial selective enclathration caused by the difference between the dissociation pressures of pure N2- and O2–clathrate hydrates, (2) the diffusive mass transfer of air molecules from surrounding air bubbles through the ice matrix, and (3) diffusion of air molecules in the clathrate hydrate crystal. The dissociation pressures and the diffusion rates of air molecules in ice and clathrate hydrate strongly depend on temperature. Therefore, it is concluded that the pattern of the spatial distribution of air molecules in clathrate hydrate is mainly determined by the depth at which they formed and the temperature in the ice sheet.

Glen’s flow law is a well-established general law for steady-state glacier ice deformation, and many laboratory tests and field measurements have been undertaken which have shown the generality of the law to be correct. In Nature, ice deformation is the response of the glacier/ice sheet to the applied self-weight stress of the ice mass (i.e. ice thickness, gravity and ice density) which produces a stress gradient within the ice column. Detailed experimental analyses of ice samples in the laboratory have until now only been undertaken using uniform stress fields in uniaxial or triaxial tests. Obviously the best method for investigating ice in the laboratory would be if stress gradients similar to those found in Nature could be replicated. In the following paper we describe the physical modelling of two (laboratory-prepared) isotropic, polycrystalline ice models (0.75 × 0.25 × 0.18 m) at enhanced gravity levels (80g) in a geotechnical beam centrifuge. Steel plate was placed on top of the ice model, replicating an overburden of approximately 36 m of ice (at 80g). Thus we were able to model the deformation of the lower 14 m of an ice mass approximately 50 m thick. Models are confined laterally by the Perspex strongbox walls, preventing lateral extension within the sample during testing. Models are unconfined on their downslope ends, rendering longitudinal stresses negligible. Deformation can therefore be treated as simple shear. Samples are instrumented with displacement markers and thermocouples. Values for A and n in the flow law derived from the experiments are reasonable and indicate the potential of this method for ice-deformation studies.

Here we compare scaled centrifuge modelling of gelifluction processes with earlier full-scale physical modelling experiments. The objective is to assess the validity of the centrifuge technique for cryogenic slope-process investigations. Centrifuge modelling allows correct self-weight stresses to be generated within a small-scale physical model by placing it in an elevated gravitational field. This paper describes an experiment in which a scaled frozen-slope model was thawed in a gravitational field equivalent to ten gravities. After four cycles of thawing, during which soil temperatures, pore pressures, thaw settlement and downslope soil displacements were continuously monitored, a series of marker columns were excavated to reveal profiles of soil movement. Comparison of these data with those from an earlier full-scale laboratory simulation experiment indicates that thaw-related gelifluction was successfully reproduced during centrifuge modelling. It is concluded that rates of soil shear strain during gelifluction were not time-dependent? since soil displacements in the centrifuge tests were of a similar magnitude to or greater than those observed in the much longer-duration full-scale simulation. This suggests that no transition occurred in soil behaviour from a frictional plastic to a true viscous fluid during the period of high moisture contents immediately following thaw.

According to geographic information system-based modelling, the Muragl glacier forefield situated in the St Moritz area, eastern Swiss Alps, lies in a potential permafrost area. As an attempt to verify spatial modelling, BTS (bottom temperature of the winter snow cover) measurements, geoelectrical soundings and geomorphological mapping were carried out in order to investigate the present-day permafrost and ground-ice distribution in this forefield. Recent geomorphodynamic processes in the steep upper slopes of the cirque include small debris flows and several slides related to the occurrence of ground ice. The occurrence of fluted moraines and a well-developed push moraine provides geomorphological evidence for a complex thermal regime of the former Muragl glacier, with cold marginal parts frozen to the bed, and warm-based ice in more central parts where fluted moraines could develop. Details of the inferred glacier/permafrost interaction are difficult to interpret. The results of field measurements (BTS and geoelectrical soundings) in the recently deglaciated forefield indicate the local occurrence of permafrost in the forefield and in the push moraine. In most parts of the forefield, permafrost may be assumed to be a former subglacial occurrence. However, new permafrost formation in the recently deglaciated forefield cannot be excluded.

The interaction of energy-exchange processes between the atmosphere and the Earth surface determines the surface temperature regime. It is of fundamental importance to the question whether frozen ground exists at a given site and how rapidly it may decay in response to a climatic perturbation. To further our understanding of these processes, measurements concerning near-surface energy-exchange processes were initiated in January 1997 on creeping permafrost at a high mountain site, Murtèl-Corvatsch, upper Engadin, Swiss Alps. Data on all important energy-balance fluxes were collected. In this paper, we present ground-temperature and energy-balance measurements from Murtèl-Corvatsch for a 2 year period, 1997–99. We will examine the relative importance of the energy-balance components and discuss special problems relating to the coarse surface layer. The results indicate a non-zero energy budget, with a positive deviation of up to 78 W m 4 in winter and a negative deviation of up to –130 W nT2 in summer. We propose that this overall imbalance of the energy-exchange fluxes, as well as the significant difference between mean annual surface and ground temperatures/can be explained by unmeasured advective energy fluxes that occur within the layer of large boulder blocks at the top of the permafrost.

Climate and its long-term variability govern ground thermal conditions, and for this reason represent one of the most important impacts on creeping mountain permafrost. The decoding and better understanding of the present-day morphology and distribution of rock glaciers opens up a variety of insights into past and present environmental, especially climatic, conditions on a local to regional scale. The present study was carried out in the Swiss Alps using two different approaches: (1) kinematic analysis of specific active rock glaciers, and (2) description of the altitudinal distribution of relict rock glaciers. Two theoretical shape concepts of active rock-glacier morphology were derived’ a"monomorphic" type, representing presumably undisturbed, continuous development over several millennia and a ˚polymorphic" type, reflecting a system of (possibly climatically affected) individual creep streams several centuries old. The topoclimatic-based inventory analysis indicated an average temperature increase at relict rock-glacier fronts of approximately +2°C since the time of their decay, which is a sign of rock-glacier ages reaching back to the Alpine Late Glacial. The temperature difference of some tenths of a degree Celsius found for active/inactive rock glaciers is typical for the bandwidth of Holocene climate variations. These results confirm the importance of Alpine rock glaciers as highly sensitive indicators of past temperature evolution.

Analyses of the geothermal gradient in permafrost areas constitute a key signal of the ground-surface temperature history. Permafrost temperatures in selected areas are particularly well suited to reconstructing past surface-temperature changes, mainly because there is no thermal disturbance due to circulating groundwater. One year of temperature data from an instrumented 102 m deep borehole in permafrost on Janssonhaugen, Svalbard, is presented. Ground thermal properties are calculated. The average value for the thermal conductivity is 1.85 ±0.05 W m–1 K–1 , and the average value for the thermal diffusivity is 1.1m2 s–1, which gives a phase speed for the annual wave of 5.65 × KT2 m d–1. The depth of zero annual amplitude is 18 m The permafrost thickness is estimated as approximately 220 m. Analysis of the temperatures reveals an increasing temperature gradient with depth. Using a heat-conduction inversion model, a palaeoclimatic reconstruction is presented, showing a warming of the surface temperature over the last 60–80 years. The temperature profile represents a regional signal on Svalbard, which shows an inflection associated with near-surface warming of 1.5 ± 0.5°C in the 20th century.

A mathematical model makes it possible to estimate the stability of soils in permafrost, the origin of different forms of underground ice, and pingo formation in several parts of the surface in the permafrost. The cryogenic formation of pingos, which is very widespread in permafrost areas, is investigated in the paper. The velocity and height of pingo growth depend on the total moisture content in soil, the type of soil, the initial salinity and the climate conditions. This problem is addressed using equations of Stefan’s heat problem, filtration and salt diffusion and equations for water pressure, with water moving to the phase boundary under different hydrostatic and osmotic pressures.

At two permafrost sites in the Swiss Alps a range of geophysical methods were applied to model the structure of the subsurface. At both sites, borehole information was used to verify the quality of the model results. On the Murtèl-Corvatsch rock glacier (2700 m a.s.L; upper Engadine) a 58 m deep core drilling was performed in 1987. D. c resistivity measurements, refraction seismics, ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and gravimetric surveys allowed the shape of the permafrost table beneath the marked surface microtopography to be determined and the lateral extent of a deeper shear horizon to be established The validity of each method was verified by the borehole information (cores, density log and temperature). A coherent model of the rock-glacier structure was developed. At the Schilthorn (2970 m a.s.L; Bernese Oberland), it was not clear whether permafrost is in fact present. Various geophysical surveys (d.c. resistivity tomography, refraction seismics, GPR and EM-31) gave results that were not typical of permafrost environments. A 14 m percussion drilling revealed warm permafrost and a very low ice content. These geotechnical and geothermal data allowed reinterpretation of the geophysical results, improving modelling of ground conditions. The paper demonstrates that in the difficult terrain of Alpine permafrost, boreholes may be critical in calibration and verification of the results of geophysical methods. The most useful combinations of geophysical techniques proved to be (a) seismics with d.c. resistivity, and (b) gravimetry with GPR.

Sea-ice thickness distributions from 12 submarine cruises under the North Pole are used to evaluate and enhance the results of sea-ice model simulations. The sea-ice models include versions with cavitating fluid and elastic-viscous-plastic rheologies, and versions with a single thickness and with multiple (5–27) thicknesses in each gridcell. A greater portion of the interannual variance of observed mean thickness at the Pole is captured by the multiple-thickness models than by the single-thickness models, although even the highest correlations are only about 0.6. After The observed thickness distributions are used to ˚tune" the model to capture the primary mode of the distribution, the largest model-data discrepancies are in the thin-ice tail of the distribution. In a 41 year simulation ending in 1998, the model results show a pronounced decrease of mean ice thickness at the Pole around 1990; the minimum simulated thickness occurs in summer 1998. The decrease coincides with a shift of the Arctic Oscillation to its positive phase. The smallest submarine-derived mean thickness occurs in 1990, but no submarine data were available after 1992. The submarine-derived thicknesses for 1991 and 1992 are only slightly smaller than the 12–case mean.

The deformation of pack ice is modeled as the discrete motion of rigid plates. A continuous and differentiate field of large-scale velocity is sampled at the center Joint of each plate to determine its uniform translation. Discontinuities in the ice velocity occur at the cracks separating pairs of adjacent plates. Ice deformation that is characterized by opening, ridging and sliding coefficients is computed directly by integrating the velocity jumps over the length of each crack, and summing over all cracks in I representative area. These coefficients depend on the large-scale strain rate and the geometry of the cracks. The relevant geometric parameters are the orientations of (a) the cracks with respect to the principal axis of the strain rate, and (b) the cracks with respect to the relative position vectors between the center points of adjacent plates on either side of the crack. For all tilings of uniform, equilateral diamonds (including squares) the opening and ridging are minimized, and the sliding is maximized, when an axis of symmetry of the plate coincides with the principal axis of the strain rate.

In this paper, we extend the analysis of geometry and deformation of pack ice initiated in part I by considering random isotropic geometry using the Poisson line process. The model is used to estimate opening, ridging and sliding coefficients for more realistic geometry than the idealized simple and regular geometry considered in part I. We then derive the shape of yield curves by applying minimization of the maximum shear stress to a linear combination of the estimated ridging and sliding coefficients. It is found that isotropic crack geometry results in a sine-lens shape for the yield curve if sliding makes no contribution to the energy dissipation. By contrast, when sliding contributes, the shape of the yield curve becomes teardropped. These results suggest the presence of a consistent relationship between large-scale characterization of inter-floe interactions and small-scale (crack and lead) ridging processes.

The detection of small changes in concentration or thickness in the Arctic or Antarctic ice cover is an important topic in the current global-climate-change debate. Change detection using satellite data alone requires rigorous error analysis for their derived ice products, including inter-satellite validation for long time series. All models of physical processes are only approximations, and the best models of complicated physical processes have errors and uncertainties. A promising approach is data assimilation, combining model, in situ data and satellite remote-sensing data. Sea-ice monitoring from satellite, ice-model estimates, and the potential benefit of combining the two are discussed in some detail. In a case-study we demonstrate how the sea-ice backscatter for the Beaufort Sea region was derived using a backscattering model in combination with an ice model. We conclude that, for data assimilation, the first steps include the use of simple models, moving, with success at this level, to progressively more complex models. We also recommend reconfiguring the current remote-sensing data to include precise time tags with each pixel. For example, the current Special Sensor Microwave Imager data might be reissued in a time-tagged orbital (or gridded) format as opposed to the currently available daily averaged gridded data. Finally, error statistics and quality-control information also need to be readily available in a form useful for assimilation. The effectiveness of data-assimilation techniques is directly linked to the availability of data error statistics.

An operational coupled ice-ocean forecast model is compared with observed ice features derived from daily ice charts and ice beacons. The model demonstrates significant skill in predicting ice drifts, total ice extent, total ice area and average compactness tendencies. Evaluation of ice-thickness forecasts is inconclusive. Model deficiencies may be caused by inconsistent specification of the initial ice and ocean state.

A physically based finite-element heat-transfer model with phase change is used to simulate ice growth and thickness variability on shallow, thaw lakes on the North Slope of Alaska during the period 1947–97. The basic inputs to the model are air temperature and snow depth as recorded at the U.S. National Weather Service station, Barrow, Alaska. The simulated long-term mean maximum ice thickness was 1.91 ±0.21 m with a range from 1.33 m (1962) to 2.47 m (1976). Variations in the seasonal snow cover played a much greater role than air temperatures in controlling ice-thickness variability during the 50 year simulation period. The sensitivity of lake-ice growth to extremes of snow depth, air temperature and snow bulk thermal conductivity is investigated. This study shows that lake-ice thickness has varied significantly from year to year in northern Alaska. Continued variability combined with potential climate change could affect the area of ice that freezes completely to the bottom of lakes each winter, resulting in changes in water storage and availability, permafrost thermal regime and talik dynamics beneath lakes, and methane efflux and energy fluxes to the atmosphere. It is concluded that quantification and a full understanding of these potential effects will require systematic and continuous field measurements that will provide better forcing and validation fields for improved models.

High-latitude interactions of local-scale processes in the atmosphere-ice-ocean system have effects on the local, Antarctic and global climate. Phenomena including polynyas and leads are examples of such interactions which, when combined, have a significant impact on larger scales. These small-scale features, which are typically parameterized in global models, can be explicitly simulated using high-resolution regional climate system models. As such, the study of these interactions is well suited to a regional model approach and is considered here using the Arctic Regional Climate System Model (ARCSyM). This model has been used for many simulations in the Arctic, and is now implemented for the Antarctic. Observations of such processes in the Antarctic are limited, which makes model validation difficult. However, using the best available observations for an annual cycle, we have determined a suite of model parameterization which allows us to reasonably simulate the Antarctic climate. This work considers a fine-resolution (20 km) simulation in the Cosmonaut Sea region, with the eventual goal of elucidating the mechanisms in the formation and maintenance of the sensible-heat polynya which is a regular occurrence in this area. It was found in an atmosphere-sea-ice simulation that the ocean plays an important role in regulating the sea-ice cover in this region in compensating for the cold atmospheric conditions.

The nature of air-snow exchange processes depends upon both the physical characteristics of the snow and forcing from the atmosphere. An understanding of snow-air transport processes and models of these processes are important for interpreting ice cores and for predicting remotely sensed snow-surface characteristics. Accurate modeling requires knowledge of the physical characteristics of the snow and firn. In this paper, measurements of snow and firn permeability from the surface down to 12 m depth at Siple Dome, Antarctica, are presented. The permeability varies greatly as a function of layer and depth, generally increasing to approximately 3 m, and generally decreasing below that. The maximum permeability,280 × 10–10 1 0 m2, occurs at approximately 3 m depth. The lowest permeability in the top 12 m of snow and firn, 10 × 10–10w m2, was measured in the surface wind pack/The measurements show that layering and microstructure have large effects on permeability A mathematical expression for the overall variation of permeability with depth is presented It is shown that snow density is a poor indicator of permeability Quantitative microscopy may be helpful in relating observed snow characteristics to permeability, and useful in modeling firnification and chemical-species transport.

Based on a time series of European remote-sensing satellite (ERS-2) synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) images from 1996/97, ablation on the King George Island (Antarctica) ice cap is documented. Snowmelt patterns were monitored by mapping the dynamic evolution of radar glacier zones and their boundaries. On the ice cap, all major radar glacier zones except the dry-snow radar zone were identified during the observed period While winter was characterized by a frozen-percolation radar zone, the ablation season was characterized by wet-snow and bare-ice radar zones. A striking bright backscatter signature indicated the presence of a highly reflective zone in the lower parts of the wet-snow zone. It was attributed to a phase 2 melt (P2) radar zone, which is characterized by a metamorphosed and roughened surface of a melting snow cover. Due to the absence of simultaneously acquired ground-truth information, concurrent meteorological data proved to be essential for interpreting the SAR images. Although the maximum elevation of the ice cap does not exceed 680 ma.s.L, ablation patterns obviously reflect altitudinal control. Melt onset up to 530 m a.s.l. was initiated by an advection event at the end of October 1996. A wet snowpack on the entire ice cap corresponds with a prolonged period of high temperatures in January 1997. However, the highest parts of the ice cap were affected by occasional melt-freeze cycles. The transient snowline at the end of February was determined as being at 250 m a i l. This late-summer snowline was regarded as an approximation of the equilibrium-line altitude for the 1996/97 ablation season.

Solar radiation was measured above and in the snowpack on Svalbard using a spectroradiometer and a quantum meter measuring average photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). In order to specify the effect of melting on the snow’s radiation properties, all measurements were performed before and during the melt season in May and June 1997 and 1998. Along with the radiation measurements, physical and structural snow properties were logged in snow pits. A physically based model was used to simulate the penetration of radiation into the snow The model formulation accounts for the spectrally dependent interactions between the radiation and snow grains, and requires inputs of the incoming solar radiation spectrum and the vertical snow density and grain-size. The vertical radiation-flux profile was computed using a two-stream radiation approximation where the absorption and reflection coefficients are related to the surface albedo, solar spectrum, grain-size and number of grains per unit volume. In general, snow before the onset of melt attenuates solar radiation more than coarser-grained snow that has been exposed to melting conditions. Quantum-meter measurements of PAR before and during melt can be explained by model outputs using both constant and variable extinction coefficients. Spectroradiometer measurements at fixed depth levels showed, in addition, that impurities in the snow reduce its transparency and therefore have the opposite effect to aging.

In anticipation of the launch of the Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra, and the Aqua spacecraft in 1999 and 2000, respectively, efforts are ongoing to determine errors of satellite-derived snow-cover maps. EOS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrora-diometer (MODIS) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-E (AMSR-E) snow-cover products will be produced. For this study we compare snow maps covering the same study areas in Canada and the United States, acquired from different sensors using different snow-mapping algorithms. Four locations are studied: (1) Saskatchewan, Canada; (2) New England (New Hampshire, Vermont and Massachusetts) and eastern New York; (3) central Idaho and western Montana; and (4) North and South Dakota. Snow maps were produced using a prototype MODIS snow-mapping algorithm from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes of each study area at 30 m and when the TM data were degraded to 1 km resolution. U.S. National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) 1km resolution snow maps were also used, as were snow maps derived from 0.5° × 0.5° resolution Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data. A land-cover map derived from the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program land-cover map of North America was also registered to the scenes. The TM, NOHRSC and SSM/ I snow maps, and land-cover maps were compared digitally. In most cases, TM-derived maps show less snow cover than the NOHRSC and SSM/I maps because areas of incomplete snow cover in forests (e.g. tree canopies, branches and trunks) are seen in the TM data but not in the coarser-resolution maps which may map the areas as completely snow-covered. The snow maps generally agree with respect to the spatial variability of the snow cover. The 30 m resolutionTM data provide the most accurate snow maps, and are thus used as the baseline for comparison with the other maps. Results show that the changes in amount of snow cover, as compared to to the 30 m resolution TM maps, are lowest using the TM 1km resolution maps, at 0–40%. The greatest change (>100%) is found in the New England study area, probably due to the presence of patchy snow cover. A scene with patchy snow cover is more difficult to map accurately than is a scene with a well-defined snowline such as is found on the North and South Dakota scene where the changes were 0–40%. There are also some important differences in the amount of snow mapped using the two different SSM/I algorithms because they utilize different channels.