Mosquito-borne disease is a significant public health issue and within Australia Ross River virus (RRV) is the most reported. This study combines a mechanistic model of mosquito development for two mosquito vectors; Aedes vigilax and Aedes camptorhynchus, with climate projections from three climate models for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), to examine the possible effects of climate change and sea-level rise on a temperate tidal saltmarsh habitat in Perth, Western Australia. The projections were run under no accretion and accretion scenarios using a known mosquito habitat as a case study. This improves our understanding of the possible implications of sea-level rise, accretion and climate change for mosquito control programmes for similar habitats across temperate tidal areas found in Southwest Western Australia. The output of the model indicate that the proportion of the year mosquitoes are active increases. Population abundances of the two Aedes species increase markedly. The main drivers of changes in mosquito population abundances are increases in the frequency of inundation of the tidal wetland and size of the area inundated, increased minimum water temperature, and decreased daily temperature fluctuations as water depth increases due to sea level changes, particularly under the model with no accretion. The effects on mosquito populations are more marked for RCP 8.5 when compared to RCP 4.5 but were consistent among the three climate change models. The results indicate that Ae. vigilax is likely to be the most abundant species in 2030 and 2050, but that by 2070 Aedes camptorhynchus may become the more abundant species. This increase would put considerable pressure on existing mosquito control programmes and increase the risk of mosquito-borne disease and nuisance biting to the local community, and planning to mitigate these potential impacts should commence now.

Pseudodiplorchis americanus has an extremely brief opportunity for transmission, restricted to less than 24 h in the year when the host (Scaphiopus couchii) enters water to breed. This strict annual cycle means that invading worms have 1 year to complete reproductive development. Despite this, a large proportion of the parasite suprapopulation is not prepared for transmission at the time of host breeding. The present study correlates detailed soil temperatures for one field site in S.E. Arizona, spanning 3·5 years, with laboratory data on parasite growth and reproductive development at a series of controlled temperatures. Development is totally inhibited at 16°C. Optimal growth and development occurs at 25°C and is slower at both 20°C and a diurnal cycle fluctuating between 20 and 34°C (mean 27°C) (simulating summer temperatures experienced by host and parasite). The effective period for accumulation of infective stages by P. americanus in any one season varies according to the timing of the summer rains in consecutive years. Between 1985 and 1988, the interval between host breedings varied from 11 to 13 months and the period when temperatures were above 20°C varied from 4 to 5·5 months per year. Since the first month post-infection (p.i.) consists of pre-reproductive development, first-year worms have only 3–4·5 months to produce infective larvae. In the shortest seasons, these worms may not be able to complete reproductive preparation in time for the first opportunity for transmission. In different parts of the geographical distribution of S. couchii, different cycles of temperature, rainfall and host breeding occur; varying temperature regimes represent an important abiotic control of P. americanus reproductive biology and transmission.