In this paper, we propose a modified Kudla–Rapoport conjecture for the Krämer model of unitary Rapoport–Zink space at a ramified prime, which is a precise identity relating intersection numbers of special cycles to derivatives of Hermitian local density polynomials. We also introduce the notion of special difference cycles, which has surprisingly simple description. Combining this with induction formulas of Hermitian local density polynomials, we prove the modified Kudla–Rapoport conjecture when $n=3$. Our conjecture, combining with known results at inert and infinite primes, implies the arithmetic Siegel–Weil formula for all non-singular coefficients when the level structure of the corresponding unitary Shimura variety is defined by a self-dual lattice.

We use the method of Bruinier–Raum to show that symmetric formal Fourier–Jacobi series, in the cases of norm-Euclidean imaginary quadratic fields, are Hermitian modular forms. Consequently, combining a theorem of Yifeng Liu, we deduce Kudla’s conjecture on the modularity of generating series of special cycles of arbitrary codimension for unitary Shimura varieties defined in these cases.

We prove an explicit formula for the arithmetic intersection number of diagonal cycles on GSpin Rapoport–Zink spaces in the minuscule case. This is a local problem arising from the arithmetic Gan–Gross–Prasad conjecture for orthogonal Shimura varieties. Our formula can be viewed as an orthogonal counterpart of the arithmetic–geometric side of the arithmetic fundamental lemma proved by Rapoport–Terstiege–Zhang in the minuscule case.

We consider two families of arithmetic divisors defined on integral models of Shimura curves. The first was studied by Kudla, Rapoport and Yang, who proved that if one assembles these divisors in a formal generating series, one obtains the $q$-expansion of a modular form of weight 3/2. The present work concerns the Shimura lift of this modular form: we identify the Shimura lift with a generating series comprising divisors arising in the recent work of Kudla and Rapoport regarding cycles on Shimura varieties of unitary type. In the prequel to this paper, the author considered the geometry of the two families of cycles. These results are combined with the Archimedean calculations found in this work in order to establish the theorem. In particular, we obtain new examples of modular generating series whose coefficients lie in arithmetic Chow groups of Shimura varieties.

In this paper, we study the reduced loci of special cycles on local models of the Shimura variety for $\text{GU}\left( 1,\,n\,-\,1 \right)$. Those special cycles are defined by Kudla and Rapoport. We explicitly compute the irreducible components of the reduced locus of a single special cycle, as well as of an arbitrary intersection of special cycles, and their intersection behaviour in terms of Bruhat–Tits theory. Furthermore, as an application of our results, we prove the connectedness of arbitrary intersections of special cycles, as conjectured by Kudla and Rapoport.

The arithmetic fundamental lemma conjecture of the third author connects the derivative of an orbital integral on a symmetric space with an intersection number on a formal moduli space of $p$-divisible groups of Picard type. It arises in the relative trace formula approach to the arithmetic Gan–Gross–Prasad conjecture. We prove this conjecture in the minuscule case.