Müller Ice Cap sits on Umingmat Nunaat (Axel Heiberg Island), Nunavut, Canada, ~ 80°N. Its high latitude and elevation suggest it experiences relatively little melt and preserves an undisturbed paleoclimate record. Here, we present a suite of field measurements, complemented by remote sensing, that constrain the ice thickness, accumulation rate, temperature, ice-flow velocity, and surface-elevation change of Müller Ice Cap. These measurements show that some areas near the top of the ice cap are more than 600 m thick, have nearly stable surface elevation, and flow slowly, making them good candidates for an ice core. The current mean annual surface temperature is −19.6 °C, which combined with modeling of the temperature profile indicates that the ice is frozen to the bed. Modeling of the depth-age scale indicates that Pleistocene ice is likely to exist with measurable resolution (300–1000 yr m−1) 20–90 m from the bed, assuming that Müller Ice Cap survived the Holocene Climatic Optimum with substantial ice thickness (~400 m or more). These conditions suggest that an undisturbed Holocene climate record could likely be recovered from Müller Ice Cap. We suggest 91.795°W, 79.874°N as the most promising drill site.

We present a new map of bed topography and ice thickness together with a corresponding ice volume estimate representative of the years ~2010 for all Scandinavian ice caps and glaciers. Starting from surface observations, we invert for ice thickness by iteratively running an innovative ice dynamics model on a distributed grid and updating bed topography until modelled and observed glacier dynamics as represented by their rate of surface elevation change (dh/dt) fields align. The ice flow model used is the instructed glacier model (Jouvet and Cordonnier, 2023, Journal of Glaciology 1–15), a generic physics-informed deep-learning emulator that models higher-order ice flow with high-computational efficiency. We calibrate the modelled thicknesses against >11 000 ice thickness observations, resulting in a final ice volume estimate of 302.7 km3 for Norway, 18.4 km3 for Sweden and 321.1 km3 for the whole of Scandinavia with an error estimate of ~$\pm 11\%$. The validation statistics computed indicate good agreement between modelled and observed thicknesses (RMSE = 55 m, Pearson's r = 0.87, bias = 0.8 m), outperforming all other ice thickness maps available for the region. The modelled bed shapes thus provide unprecedented detail in the subglacial topography, especially for ice caps where we produce the first maps that show ice-dynamically realistic flow features.

Melting and calving of glaciers and ice caps in Antarctica and Greenland could potentially contribute significantly to global sea level rise. Updates to existing outlines that provide critical glacier baseline information in both regions could help in the analysis of particular changes in glacier parameters such as area and volume from time-series inventories. Here we synthesize previously established techniques and apply new multi-source datasets to update glacier outlines in selected test areas of Antarctica and Greenland, as well as to reduce uncertainties and errors during the mapping process. The workflow includes mapping glacier boundaries, subdividing glaciers by watersheds and assigning glacier attributes. Complicated glacier scenarios and updating challenges in polar regions are discussed and demonstrated by representative case studies. For the first time in Antarctica, we analyze the effect of terminus types on mapped glacier areas, and in Greenland we compare the differences with glacier mapping results using Landsat OLI and ETM+. With new data sources, the methods described in this study might help to create glacier outlines on a larger scale in Antarctica and Greenland. Although data sources can be substituted, the enormous amount of manual labor required to update glacier inventories remains a significant challenge.

The Arctic is a hotspot for climate warming, making it crucial to quantify the sea level rise contribution from its ice masses. Novaya Zemlya's ice caps are the largest glacier complex in Europe and are a major contributor to contemporary sea level rise. Here we show that Novaya Zemlya outlet glaciers on the Barents Sea coast respond rapidly and consistently to oceanic forcing at annual timescales, likely due to their exposure to Atlantic Water variability. Glaciers on the Kara Sea show more variable response, likely reflecting their reduced exposure to Atlantic Water. Data demonstrate that the pause in glacier retreat previously observed on Novaya Zemlya between 2013 and 2015 has not persisted and that these changes correspond to ocean temperature variability on the Barents Sea coast. We document a marked shift to warmer air and ocean temperatures, and reduced sea ice concentrations from 2005 onwards. Although we identify ocean warming as the primary trigger for glacier retreat, we suggest that multi-year thinning, driven by the shift towards warmer air temperatures since 2005, pre-conditioned Novaya Zemlya's glaciers to retreat. Despite commonality in the timing of outlet glacier retreat, the magnitude is highly variable during rapid retreat phases, which we attribute to glacier-specific factors.

We use the apparent horizontal shift of an englacial tephra layer outcrop to calculate local glacier mass balance on Sléttjökull, a lobe of Mýrdalsjökull in Southern Iceland. For this approach, the dipping angle of the englacial tephra layer in the glacier upstream of the outcrop and the flow velocity of the ice need to be known. An earlier investigation was expanded by the application of ground-penetrating radar, detecting the depth of the tephra along tracks with a total length of 10 km. Interpolation between the tracks enables us to derive the dipping angle of the layer along several flow lines. Together with glacier surface velocities, determined from feature tracking, we are able to estimate the local surface mass balance from the horizontal displacement of the tephra outcrop using freely available satellite imagery without additional fieldwork. The earlier local balance series was extended to the period 2014/15 to 2019/20. Although the results for the individual profiles differ slightly from each other, they show the same temporal pattern and clear variations from year to year. The results are compared to traditional mass-balance data from Hofsjökull. The two series show a good agreement in their interannual variability.

Our climate future depends on the delicate, fine balance of earth processes first elaborated on by James Croll, born 200 years ago in 1821. A childhood victim of the Scottish clearances, Croll, after following various indifferent occupations, managed to remove to the then rapidly industrialising city of Glasgow and eventually to Scotland's capital, Edinburgh. He blossomed as a most original, outside-the-box, thinker of great intellectual strength and modesty. He carried out scores of studies across a broad range of research topics, many related to the physical causes of climate change. He is well known for his astronomical theory of the ice ages, but should be much better regarded for his incisive physical insights into the central importance of feedbacks in the Earth system. Although humble, Croll was an ardent controversialist who strongly, perhaps over-strongly, always defended his corner. As well as his many accomplishments as a man of science, Croll was committed to exploring philosophical questions of theism and determinism, topics which occupied his earliest and last publications. A ‘top ten’ selection out of the varied subject areas that Croll tackled are explored herein, along with a brisk survey of their legacy to contemporary modelling studies and to Earth's climate future: (1) causes of climate change (1864); (2) ice-cap melt and sea-level rise (1865); (3) predicting future climates using eccentricity (1866); (4) combining orbital precession, eccentricity and obliquity (1867); (5) geological time and the date of the glacial epochs (1868); (6) geological time and denudation rates (1868); (7) ocean currents and the hemispherical temperature difference (1869); (8) feedbacks – a remarkable circumstance which led to changes of climate (1875); (9) temperature of space and its bearing on terrestrial physics (1880); (10) the causes of mild polar climates (1884).

To assess the amount of ice volume stored in glaciers or ice caps, a method to estimate ice thickness distribution is required for glaciers where no direct observations are available. In this study, we use an existing inverse method to estimate the bedrock topography and ice thickness of the Renland Ice Cap, East Greenland, using satellite-based observations of the surface topography. The inverse approach involves a procedure in which an ice dynamical model is used to build-up an ice cap in steady state with climate forcing from a regional climate model, and the bedrock is iteratively adjusted until the modelled and observed surface topography match. We validate our model results against information from airborne radar data and satellite observed surface velocity, and we find that the inferred ice thickness and thereby the stored total volume of the ice cap is sensitive to the assumed ice softness and basal slipperiness. The best basal model parameters for the Renland Ice Cap are determined and the best estimated total ice volume of 384 km3 is found. The Renland Ice Cap is particularly interesting because of its location at a high elevation plateau and hence assumed low sensitivity to climate change.

As a result of climate warming, glacial meltwater discharge has been increasing in Greenland. During the summers of 2015 and 2016, there were rapid increases in discharge from Qaanaaq Glacier in northwestern Greenland. These discharges resulted in floods that destroyed the road linking the settlement of Qaanaaq to Qaanaaq Airport. Field measurements were performed and a numerical model of glacier runoff was developed to quantify these discharges. The high discharge associated with the 2015 flood, estimated at 9.1 m3 s−1 (hourly mean), resulted from intensive glacier melting due to warm air temperature and strong winds, while the high discharge associated with the 2016 flood resulted from heavy rainfall (90 mm d−1) that led to a peak discharge estimated at 19.9 m3 s−1. The developed model, when used to investigate future glacier runoff under warming conditions, revealed a nonlinear increase in glacial melt with increasing temperature. Additionally, the model forecasted a threefold increase in total summer discharge, owing to a 4 °C rise in temperature. Thus, this study quantified the impact of a changing climate on glacier runoff, which gives insight into future risks of flood hazards along the coast of Greenland.

Like most ice caps and glaciers worldwide, Icelandic glaciers are retreating in a warming climate. Here, the evolution of Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, from 1980 to 2300 is simulated by forcing the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) with output from Regional Climate Models (RCMs). For climate simulations of the recent past, HARMONIE-AROME reanalysis-forced simulations are used, while for future climate conditions, high-resolution (5.5 km) simulations from the RCM HIRHAM5 are used in addition to available CORDEX simulations (12 km). The glacier evolution is modelled using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios until 2100. To extend the time series, the 2081–2100 climate forcing is repeated until 2300. For RCP 4.5, the ice cap loses 31–64% of its volume and 13–37% of its area by 2300 depending on the used model forcing. For RCP 8.5, the volume decrease is 51–94% and the area decrease is 24–80% by 2300. In addition, the effect of elevation feedbacks is investigated by adding a precipitation and temperature lapse rate to the HIRHAM5 simulations. By 2300, the lapse rate runs have a 9–14% smaller volume and a 9–20% smaller area than the runs without a lapse rate correction.

The long-term warming on the Antarctic Peninsula in the second half of the 20th century prompted rapid retreat of glaciers on the peninsula and surrounding islands. Retreat accelerated until the beginning of the new millennium when the regional warming trend significantly decreased. The response of glaciers to the change in temperature trend has been observed around the northern part of the Antarctic Peninsula but the timing of the shift from the surface lowering to mass gain remains unclear. Using historical aerial photographs, DEMs and satellite altimeter data from ICESat, we estimate areal and surface elevation changes of two small ice caps in the northern part of James Ross Island over the last 39 years. The glacierized area on Lachman Crags decreased from 4.337 ± 0.037 to 3.581 ± 0.014 km2 (−17.4%) between 1979 and 2006 and then increased to 3.597 ± 0.047 km2 (0.4%) until 2016. Surface lowering observed on ice caps after 1979 continued at least until 2008 as indicated by the ICESat data. The change from the lowering trend to increase in glacier surface elevation probably occurred after the ablation season 2008/09, which ranks among the warmest summers in the north-eastern Antarctic Peninsula since the mid-20th century.

Two small glaciers on James Ross Island, the north-eastern Antarctic Peninsula, experienced surface mass gain between 2009 and 2015 as revealed by field measurements. A positive cumulative surface mass balance of 0.57 ± 0.67 and 0.11 ± 0.37 m w.e. was observed during the 2009–2015 period on Whisky Glacier and Davies Dome, respectively. The results indicate a change from surface mass loss that prevailed in the region during the first decade of the 21st century to predominantly positive surface mass balance after 2009/10. The spatial pattern of annual surface mass-balance distribution implies snow redistribution by wind on both glaciers. The mean equilibrium line altitudes for Whisky Glacier (311 ± 16 m a.s.l.) and Davies Dome (393 ± 18 m a.s.l.) are in accordance with the regional data indicating 200–300 m higher equilibrium line on James Ross and Vega Islands compared with the South Shetland Islands. The mean accumulation-area ratio of 0.68 ± 0.09 and 0.44 ± 0.09 determined for Whisky Glacier and Davies Dome, respectively, is similar to the value reported for Vega Island and within the range of typical values for high-latitude glaciers.

Predicting the velocity response of glaciers to increased surface melt is a major topic of ongoing research with significant implications for accurate sea-level rise forecasting. In this study we use optical and radar satellite imagery as well as comparisons with historical ground measurements to produce a multi-decadal record of ice velocity variations on Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island. Over the period 1985–2011, the six largest outlet glaciers on the ice cap decelerated by an average rate of 21 m a−1 over the 26 year period (0.81 m a−2), or 12% per decade. The change was not monotonic, however, as most glaciers accelerated until the 1990s, then decelerated. A comparison of recent imagery with historical velocity measurements on Highway Glacier, on the southern part of Penny Ice Cap, shows that this glacier decelerated by 71% between 1953 and 2009–11, from 57 to 17 m a−1. The recent slowdown of outlet glaciers has coincided with increases in mass loss, terminus retreat and an inferred reduction in basal sliding. Measured decelerations are greater than the total short-term variability measured from both seasonal and interannual fluctuations, and support the hypothesis that glacier thinning and/or increased meltwater production promotes a long-term reduction in ice motion.

To study the glaciological processes controlling the mass budget of Greenland’s peripheral glaciers and ice caps, field measurements were carried out on Qaanaaq ice cap, a 20 km long ice cap in northwestern Greenland. In the summer of 2012, we measured surface melt rate, ice flow velocity and ice thickness along a survey route spanning the ice margin (200m a.s.l.) to the ice-cap summit (1110m a.s.l.). Melt rates in the ablation area were clearly influenced by dark materials covering the ice surface, where degree-day factors varied from 5.44 mm w.e. K–1 d–1 on a clean surface to 8.26 mm w.e. K–1 d–1 in the dark regions. Ice velocity showed diurnal variations, indicating the presence of surface-meltwater induced basal sliding. Mean ice thickness along the survey route was 120 m, with a maximum thickness of 165 m. Ice velocity and temperature fields were computed using a thermomechanically coupled numerical glacier model. Modelled ice temperature, obtained by imposing estimated annual mean air temperature as the surface boundary condition, was substantially lower than implied by the observed ice velocity. This result suggests that the ice dynamics and thermodynamics of the ice cap are significantly influenced by heat transfer from meltwater and changing ice geometry.

Future projections of the evolution of ice caps as well as ice sheets and consequent sea-level rise face several methodological challenges, one being the two-way coupling between ice flow and mass-balance models. Full two-way coupling between mass-balance models – or, in a wider scope, climate models – and ice flow models has rarely been implemented due to substantial technical challenges. Here we examine some coupling effects for the Vestfonna ice cap, Nordaustlandet, Svalbard, by analysing the impacts of different coupling intervals on mass-balance and sea-level rise projections. By comparing coupled to traditionally deployed uncoupled strategies, we prove that neglecting the topographic feedbacks in the coupling leads to underestimations of 10–20% in sea-level rise projections on century timescales in our model. As imposed climate scenarios increasingly change mass balance, uncertainties in the unknown evolution of the fast-flowing outlet glaciers decrease in importance due to their deceleration and reduced mass flux as they thin and retreat from the coast. Parameterizing mass-balance adjustment for changes in topography using lapse rates as a cost-effective alternative to full coupling produces satisfactory results for modest climate change scenarios. We introduce a method to estimate the error of the presented partially coupled model with respect to as yet unperformed two-way fully coupled results.

Glacier volume and ice thickness distribution are important variables for water resource management in Norway and the assessment of future glacier changes. We present a detailed assessment of thickness distribution and total glacier volume for mainland Norway based on data and modelling. Glacier outlines from a Landsat-derived inventory from 1999 to 2006 covering an area of 2692 ± 81 km2 were used as input. We compiled a rich set of ice thickness observations collected over the past 30 years. Altogether, interpolated ice thickness measurements were available for 870 km2 (32%) of the current glacier area of Norway, with a total ice volume of 134 ± 23 km3. Results indicate that mean ice thickness is similar for all larger ice caps, and weakly correlates with their total area. Ice thickness data were used to calibrate a physically based distributed model for estimating the ice thickness of unmeasured glaciers. The results were also used to calibrate volume–area scaling relations. The calibrated total volume estimates for all Norwegian glaciers ranged from 257 to 300 km3.

We infer the horizontal velocity fields of the ice caps Langjökull and Hofsjökull, central Iceland, using repeat-pass interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). NASA’s uninhabited aerial vehicle synthetic aperture radar (UAVSAR) acquired airborne InSAR data from multiple vantage points during the early melt season in June 2012. We develop a Bayesian approach for inferring three-dimensional velocity fields from multiple InSAR acquisitions. The horizontal components generally agree with available GPS measurements wherever ice motion is well constrained by InSAR observations. We provide evidence that changes in volumetric moisture content near the glacier surface induce phase offsets that obfuscate the vertical component of the surface velocity fields, an effect that could manifest itself on any glacier that experiences surface melt. Spatial patterns in the InSAR-derived horizontal speeds are broadly consistent with the results of a simple viscous flow model, and the directionality of the InSAR-derived horizontal flow field is nearly everywhere consistent with the ice surface gradient. Significant differences between the InSAR-derived horizontal speed and the speed predicted by the viscous flow model suggest that basal slip accounts for more than half the observed outlet glacier flow.

To better understand the processes controlling recent mass loss of peripheral glaciers and ice caps in northwestern Greenland, we measured surface mass balance (SMB), ice velocity and near-surface ice temperature on Qaanaaq Ice Cap in the summers of 2012–16. The measurements were performed along a survey route spanning the terminus of an outlet glacier to the upper reaches (243–968 m a.s.l.). The ice-cap-wide SMB ranged from −1.10 ± 0.29 to −0.13 ± 0.26 m w.e. a−1 for the years from 2012/13 to 2015/16. Mass balance showed substantially large fluctuations over the study period under the influence of summer temperature and snow accumulation. Ice velocity showed seasonal speedup only in the summer of 2012, suggesting an extraordinary amount of meltwater penetrated to the bed and enhanced basal ice motion. Ice temperature at a depth of 13 m was −8.0°C at 944 m a.s.l., which was 2.5°C warmer than that at 243 m a.s.l., suggesting that ice temperature in the upper reaches was elevated by refreezing and percolation of meltwater. Our study provided in situ data from a relatively unstudied region in Greenland, and demonstrated the importance of continued monitoring of these processes for longer timespans in the future.

Glaciers and ice caps around the world are changing quickly, with surge-type behaviour superimposed upon climatic forcing. Here, we study Iceland's second largest ice cap, Langjökull, which has both surge- and non-surge-type outlets. By differencing elevation change with surface mass balance, we estimate the contribution of ice dynamics to elevation change. We use DEMs, in situ stake measurements, regional reanalyses and a mass-balance model to calculate the vertical ice velocity. Thus, we not only compare the geodetic, modelled and glaciological mass balances, but also map spatial variations in glacier dynamics. Maps of emergence and submergence velocity successfully highlight the 1998 surge and subsequent quiescence of one of Langjökull's outlets by visualizing both source and sink areas. In addition to observing the extent of traditional surge behaviour (i.e. mass transfer from the accumulation area to the ablation area followed by recharge of the source area), we see peripheral areas where the surge impinged upon an adjacent ridge and subsequently retreated. While mass balances are largely in good agreement, discrepancies between modelled and geodetic mass balance may be explained by inaccurate estimates of precipitation, saturated adiabatic lapse rate or degree-day factors. Nevertheless, the study was ultimately able to investigate dynamic surge behaviour in the absence of in situ measurements during the surge.