Excessive iodine can lead to goiters. However, the relationship between the water iodine concentration (WIC) and goiter rate (GR) is unclear. This study aims to explore the factors that influence children’s GR in areas with high WIC and analyse the threshold value of the GR increase associated with the WIC. According to the monitoring of the areas with high WIC in China in 2018–2020, a total of 54 050 children in eight high water iodine provinces were chosen. Drinking water, urine and edible salt samples of children were collected. The thyroid volume (Tvol) was measured. A generalised additive model (GAM) was used to analyse the relationship between the WIC and GR in children. Among the 54 050 children in areas with high WIC, the overall GR was 3·34 %, the median of water iodine concentration was 127·0 µg/l, the median of urinary iodine concentration was 318 µg/l and the non-iodised salt coverage rate (NISCR) was 63·51 %. According to the GAM analysis results, water iodine and urinary iodine are factors that influence the Tvol and GR, while the NISCR affects only the GR. When the WIC was more than 420 µg/l or the urinary iodine concentration was more than 800 µg/l, the GR increased rapidly. When the NISCR reached more than 85 %, the GR was the lowest. Thus, in areas with high WIC, WIC more than 420 µg/l may increase the risk of goiter, and the NISCR should be increased to over 85 % to avoid goiters in children.

Iodine deficiency disorders (IDD) are related to the degree of iodine deficiency. In european countries, characterized by mild to moderate iodine deficiency, neurological deficits or minor neuropsychological impairments have been described. Urinary iodine excretion (UIE) ranged from 30 to 170 mcg/L, 141 millions of people were at risk of IDD, 97 millions were affected by goiter and 0.9 millions had an impaired mental development.

Iodine prophylaxis is devoid of adverse reactions with the exception of sporadic cases of transitory hyperthyroidism, associated to the severity of iodine deficiency before the prophylaxis. The International Council for Control of IDD recommends an universal iodine prophylaxis, instituted gradually in severe iodine deficient countries. The total cost of universal iodine prophylaxis is very cheap compared to the social cost of goiter and cretinism.

In conclusion, most european countries are still characterized by mild to moderate iodine deficiency. Iodine prophylaxis programs are already operating, its cost is irrelevant with respect to the undebatable beneficial impact on the health. Adverse effects are not observed except in severe iodine deficient areas where iodine intake was abruptly increased.