Ixodes ricinus, commonly known as the castor bean tick and sheep tick, is a significant vector of various diseases, such as tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme borreliosis. Owing to climate change, the distribution and activity of I. ricinus are expected to increase, leading to an increase in the number of diseases transmitted by this species. Most distribution models and ecological niche models utilize macroclimate datasets such as WorldClim or CHELSA to map the distribution of disease-transmitting ticks. However, microclimatic factors are crucial for the activity and survival of small arthropods. In this study, an ecological niche modelling approach was used to assess the climatic suitability of I. ricinus using both microclimatic and macroclimatic parameters. A Mixed model was built by combining parameters from the Soiltemp (microclimate) and Wordclim (macroclimate) databases, whereas a Macroclimate model was built with the CHELSA dataset. Additionally, future suitabilities were projected via the macroclimate model under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Macroclimate and Mixed models showed similar distributions, confirming the current distribution of I. ricinus. The most important climatic factors were seasonality, annual temperature range, humidity and precipitation. Future projections suggest significant expansion in northern and eastern Europe, with notable declines in southern Europe.

Invasive alien species represent a multifaceted management problem in terms of threats to biodiversity and ecosystems and their impacts on agriculture and human well-being. Ambrosia artemisiifolia is an invasive alien plant in Europe that affects the human population as its already highly allergenic pollen can interact with air pollutants, resulting in detrimental effects on health. In this context, the invasive beetle Ophraella communa was proposed as a biocontrol agent of A. artemisiifolia, as it feeds on its leaves, leading to a decrease in pollen production. This paper takes advantage of the different co-occurrence classes obtained by the ecological niche models inferred for both of these species based on current and future climatic conditions. We integrate them with spatial data regarding major air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide and fine particulate matter). We couple this information with European human population density data at a narrow territorial scale to infer current and future statistically significant hotspots of health risk. The Netherlands and the UK host the widest hotspots within their national territory for both current (7.09% and 3.54%, respectively) and future (15.04% and 6.70%, respectively) scenarios. Considering the alarming results obtained for some areas, the monitoring and biocontrol of A. artemisiifolia should be applied as a European strategy.

Hyalomma marginatum is an important tick species which is the main vector of Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever and spotted fever. The species is predominantly distributed in parts of southern Europe, North Africa and West Asia. However, due to ongoing climate change and increasing reports of H. marginatum in central and northern Europe, the expansion of this range poses a potential future risk. In this study, an ecological niche modelling approach to model the current and future climatic suitability of H. marginatum was followed. Using high-resolution climatic variables from the Chelsa dataset and an updated list of locations for H. marginatum, ecological niche models were constructed under current environmental conditions using MaxEnt for both current conditions and future projections under the ssp370 and ssp585 scenarios. Models show that the climatically suitable region for H. marginatum matches the current distributional area in the Mediterranean basin and West Asia. When applied to future projections, the models suggest a considerable expansion of H. marginatum's range in the north in Europe as a result of rising temperatures. However, a decline in central Anatolia is also predicted, potentially due to the exacerbation of drought conditions in that region.

As an evolutionary lineage cycads are rare, and the extinction risk is high for many species. The genus Ceratozamia, one of the most diverse in Mexico, is experiencing drastic reductions of its habitat. Ceratozamia is widely distributed along the Sierra Madre Oriental, a complex mountain range, in a region characterized by high ecological and cultural diversity. Since 1990, various conservation and management strategies have been applied to this taxon in Mexico but evidence for the effectiveness of these measures is lacking. Ceratozamia in the Mexican Sierra Madre Oriental is highly diverse and endemic, offering a model for analysing geographical distribution patterns with ecological niche modelling. It also presents an opportunity for assessing the success of conservation and management strategies that have been implemented in this area. Here, we examined three aspects that are considered fundamental for the development and evaluation of conservation strategies: (1) taxonomy, (2) ecology and (3) sociocultural anthropology. Our findings suggest a pessimistic outlook for the long-term survival of Ceratozamia species in their natural environment, indicating the need to review the current IUCN Cycad Action Plan for the genus. To improve the protection of Ceratozamia and other taxonomic and/or ecological assemblages, we encourage a multidisciplinary approach, with increased collaboration between natural and social scientists.

Humans colonized the Balearic Islands 5–4 ka ago. They arrived in a uniquely adapted ecosystem with the Balearic mountain goat Myotragus balearicus (Bovidae, Antilopinae, Caprini) as the only large mammal. This mammal went extinct rapidly after human arrival. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the extinction of M. balearicus. For the present study ancient DNA analysis (Sanger sequencing, Roche-454, Ion Torrent), and pollen and macrofossil analyses were performed on preserved coprolites from M. balearicus, providing information on its diet and paleo-environment. The information retrieved shows that M. balearicus was heavily dependent on the Balearic box species Buxus balearica during at least part of the year, and that it was most probably a browser. Hindcast ecological niche modelling of B. balearica shows that local distribution of this plant species was affected by climate changes. This suggests that the extinction of M. balearicus can be related to the decline and regional extinction of a plant species that formed a major component of its diet. The vegetation change is thought to be caused by increased aridity occurring throughout the Mediterranean. Previous hypotheses relating the extinction of M. balearicus directly to the arrival of humans on the islands must therefore be adjusted.

Maximum entropy ecological niche modelling and spatial scan statistic were utilized to predict the geographical range and to investigate clusters of infections for Neospora caninum and Coxiella burnetii in dairy cattle farms in Catalonia, northeastern Spain, using the Maxent and SaTScan programs, respectively. The geographical distribution of Neospora and Coxiella with the highest level of probability (P > 0·60) covers central Catalonia and spreads towards northeastern Catalonia which contains a high concentration of dairy cattle farms. The most important environmental factor that contributed to the ecological niche modelling was precipitation of driest month followed by elevation. Significant clusters (P < 0·001) were detected for Neospora and Coxiella infections in the western and eastern regions of Catalonia, respectively.

The yellow-headed parrot Amazona oratrix is categorized as Endangered on the IUCN Red List but little is known about its distribution, particularly along the Pacific coast of Mexico. We used ecological niche models, with presence records from museum collections and historical sightings, overlain on vegetation maps, to predict the historical range of the yellow-headed parrot along the Pacific coast of Mexico. We compared this with the current range of the species, estimated with ecological niche models using presence–absence data from surveys during 2003–2008. We estimate that the range of the yellow-headed parrot along Mexico’s Pacific coast has contracted by 79%. The current range may now cover only 18,957 km2, in three main areas. At one of these, a small isolated area on the coast of Jalisco, the species may be vulnerable to extirpation or genetic endogamy. There is a lack of conserved tropical semi-deciduous forest, which provides optimal habitat for reproduction of this parrot, within the current range of the species. Only the south, along the coast of Oaxaca, has extensive areas of this habitat. There are only three, small, protected areas within the species’ current range. Conservation strategies need to be implemented to restore connectivity between the three main areas of the current range of the yellow-headed parrot on the Pacific coast of Mexico.

Species reintroduction programmes, in prioritizing areas for reintroductions, have traditionally used tools that include measures of habitat suitability and evaluations of area requirements for viable populations. Here we add two tools to this approach: evaluation of ecological requirements of species and evaluation of future suitability for species facing changing climates. We demonstrate this approach with two species for which reintroduction programmes are in the planning stages in Mexico: California condor Gymnogyps californianus and Mexican wolf Canis lupus baileyi. For the condor, we identify three areas clustered in the Sierra San Pedro Mártir, Baja California; for the wolf, we identify a string of suitable sites along the Sierra Madre Occidental of western Mexico. We discuss the limitations of this approach, identifying ways in which the models illustrated could be made more realistic and directly useful to reintroduction programmes.