In this note we provide an upper bound for the difference between the value function of a distributionally robust Markov decision problem and the value function of a non-robust Markov decision problem, where the ambiguity set of probability kernels of the distributionally robust Markov decision process is described by a Wasserstein ball around some reference kernel whereas the non-robust Markov decision process behaves according to a fixed probability kernel contained in the ambiguity set. Our derived upper bound for the difference between the value functions is dimension-free and depends linearly on the radius of the Wasserstein ball.

We consider a Markov control model with Borel state space, metric compact action space, and transitions assumed to have a density function with respect to some probability measure satisfying some continuity conditions. We study the optimization problem of maximizing the probability of visiting some subset of the state space infinitely often, and we show that there exists an optimal stationary Markov policy for this problem. We endow the set of stationary Markov policies and the family of strategic probability measures with adequate topologies (namely, the narrow topology for Young measures and the $ws^\infty$-topology, respectively) to obtain compactness and continuity properties, which allow us to obtain our main results.

A fleet of aircraft can be seen as a set of degrading systems that undergo variable loads as they fly missions and require maintenance throughout their lifetime. Optimal fleet management aims to maximise fleet availability while minimising overall maintenance costs. To achieve this goal, individual aircraft, with variable age and degradation paths, need to operate cooperatively to maintain high fleet availability while avoiding mechanical failure by scheduling preventive maintenance actions. In recent years, reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as an effective method to optimise complex sequential decision-making problems. In this paper, an RL framework to optimise the operation and maintenance of a fleet of aircraft is developed. Three cases studies, with varying number of aircraft in the fleet, are used to demonstrate the ability of the RL policies to outperform traditional operation/maintenance strategies. As more aircraft are added to the fleet, the combinatorial explosion of the number of possible actions is identified as a main computational limitation. We conclude that the RL policy has potential to support fleet management operators and call for greater research on the application of multi-agent RL for fleet availability optimisation.

We consider a premium control problem in discrete time, formulated in terms of a Markov decision process. In a simplified setting, the optimal premium rule can be derived with dynamic programming methods. However, these classical methods are not feasible in a more realistic setting due to the dimension of the state space and lack of explicit expressions for transition probabilities. We explore reinforcement learning techniques, using function approximation, to solve the premium control problem for realistic stochastic models. We illustrate the appropriateness of the approximate optimal premium rule compared with the true optimal premium rule in a simplified setting and further demonstrate that the approximate optimal premium rule outperforms benchmark rules in more realistic settings where classical approaches fail.

We propose and analyze a temporal concatenation heuristic for solving large-scale finite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDP), which divides the MDP into smaller sub-problems along the time horizon and generates an overall solution by simply concatenating the optimal solutions from these sub-problems. As a “black box” architecture, temporal concatenation works with a wide range of existing MDP algorithms. Our main results characterize the regret of temporal concatenation compared to the optimal solution. We provide upper bounds for general MDP instances, as well as a family of MDP instances in which the upper bounds are shown to be tight. Together, our results demonstrate temporal concatenation's potential of substantial speed-up at the expense of some performance degradation.

We extend probabilistic action language $p{\cal BC}$+ with the notion of utility in decision theory. The semantics of the extended $p{\cal BC}$+ can be defined as a shorthand notation for a decision-theoretic extension of the probabilistic answer set programming language LPMLN. Alternatively, the semantics of $p{\cal BC}$+ can also be defined in terms of Markov decision process (MDP), which in turn allows for representing MDP in a succinct and elaboration tolerant way as well as leveraging an MDP solver to compute a $p{\cal BC}$+ action description. The idea led to the design of the system pbcplus2mdp, which can find an optimal policy of a $p{\cal BC}$+ action description using an MDP solver.

We study an online capacity planning problem in which arriving patients require a series of appointments at several departments, within a certain access time target.

This research is motivated by a study of rehabilitation planning practices at the Sint Maartenskliniek hospital (the Netherlands). In practice, the prescribed treatments and activities are typically booked starting in the first available week, leaving no space for urgent patients who require a series of appointments at a short notice. This leads to the rescheduling of appointments or long access times for urgent patients, which has a negative effect on the quality of care and on patient satisfaction.

We propose an approach for allocating capacity to patients at the moment of their arrival, in such a way that the total number of requests booked within their corresponding access time targets is maximized. The model considers online decision making regarding multi-priority, multi-appointment, and multi-resource capacity allocation. We formulate this problem as a Markov decision process (MDP) that takes into account the current patient schedule, and future arrivals. We develop an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) algorithm to obtain approximate optimal capacity allocation policies. We provide insights into the characteristics of the optimal policies and evaluate the performance of the resulting policies using simulation.

In this paper we are concerned with analysing optimal wealth allocation techniques within a defaultable financial market similar to Bielecki and Jang (2007). We study a portfolio optimization problem combining a continuous-time jump market and a defaultable security; and present numerical solutions through the conversion into a Markov decision process and characterization of its value function as a unique fixed point to a contracting operator. In this paper we analyse allocation strategies under several families of utility functions, and highlight significant portfolio selection differences with previously reported results.

The fundamental goal of conservation planning is biodiversity persistence, yet most reserve selection methods prioritize sites using occurrence data. Numerous empirical studies support the notion that defining and measuring objectives in terms of species richness (where the value of a site is equal to the number of species it contains, or contributes to an existing reserve network) can be inadequate for maintaining biodiversity in the long-term. An existing site-assessment framework that implicitly maximized the persistence probability of multiple species was integrated with a dynamic optimization model. The problem of sequential reserve selection as a Markov decision process was combined with stochastic dynamic programming to find the optimal solution. The approach represents a compromise between representation-based approaches (maximizing occurrences) and more complex tools, like spatially-explicit population models. The method, the inherent problems and interesting conclusions are illustrated with a land acquisition case study on the central Platte River.

This paper addresses the problem of managing a waiting list for elective surgery todecide the number of patients selected from the waiting list and to schedule them inaccordance with the operating room capacity in the next period. The waiting listprioritizes patients not only by their initial urgency level but also by their waitingtime. Selecting elective surgery patients requires a balance between the waiting time forurgent patients and that for less urgent patients. The problem is formulated as aninfinite horizon Markov Decision Process. Further, the study proposes a schedulingprocedure based on structural properties of an optimal policy by taking a sampling-basedfinite horizon approximation approach. Finally, we examine the performance of the policyunder various conditions.

In this work, we study discrete-time Markov decision processes (MDPs) with constraints when all the objectives have the same form of expected total cost over the infinite time horizon. Our objective is to analyze this problem by using the linear programming approach. Under some technical hypotheses, it is shown that if there exists an optimal solution for the associated linear program then there exists a randomized stationary policy which is optimal for the MDP, and that the optimal value of the linear program coincides with the optimal value of the constrained control problem. A second important result states that the set of randomized stationary policies provides a sufficient set for solving this MDP. It is important to note that, in contrast with the classical results of the literature, we do not assume the MDP to be transient or absorbing. More importantly, we do not impose the cost functions to be nonnegative or to be bounded below. Several examples are presented to illustrate our results.

This paper deals with discrete-time Markov decision processes (MDPs) under constraints where all the objectives have the same form of expected total cost over the infinite time horizon. The existence of an optimal control policy is discussed by using the convex analytic approach. We work under the assumptions that the state and action spaces are general Borel spaces, and that the model is nonnegative, semicontinuous, and there exists an admissible solution with finite cost for the associated linear program. It is worth noting that, in contrast to the classical results in the literature, our hypotheses do not require the MDP to be transient or absorbing. Our first result ensures the existence of an optimal solution to the linear program given by an occupation measure of the process generated by a randomized stationary policy. Moreover, it is shown that this randomized stationary policy provides an optimal solution to this Markov control problem. As a consequence, these results imply that the set of randomized stationary policies is a sufficient set for this optimal control problem. Finally, our last main result states that all optimal solutions of the linear program coincide on a special set with an optimal occupation measure generated by a randomized stationary policy. Several examples are presented to illustrate some theoretical issues and the possible applications of the results developed in the paper.

In this paper we consider the optimal dividend strategy under the diffusion model with regime switching. In contrast to the classical risk theory, the dividends can only be paid at the arrival times of a Poisson process. By solving an auxiliary optimal problem we show that the optimal strategy is the modulated barrier strategy. The value function can be obtained by iteration or by solving the system of differential equations. We also provide a numerical example to illustrate the effects of the restriction on the timing of the payment of dividends.