Based on a new cored succession at Winterswijk, evidence is uncovered of the end-Triassic mass-extinction (ETME) event in a subsurface sedimentary succession of the Netherlands. The ETME was one of the most devastating events for the biosphere during the Phanerozoic era. Massive volcanism from the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province initiated the breakup of the supercontinent Pangea and resulted in terrestrial and marine extinction pulses, which drastically altered the course of life on Earth. The newly cored material reveals a sedimentary succession representing a shallow marine setting dominated by laminated black shale and claystone deposits. A high-resolution palynostratigraphic dataset provides evidence for a late Rhaetian vegetation assemblage that displays a stepwise decline of arborescent tree vegetation that is transiently replaced by a community of ferns and fern allies. Geochemical records link this major disturbance in palynofloral biodiversity to a pulse of volcanic activity as evidenced by a negative excursion in stable organic carbon isotopes. Shifts towards drier climate conditions, as inferred from sedimentary elemental composition, suggest continental aridification strongly influenced the terrestrial realm following volcanic pulses. Presence of reworked material suggests unstable soils that were affected by increased erosion rates, inhibiting the re-establishment of conifer tree vegetation. Comparison of our findings with other contemporaneous European Triassic-Jurassic boundary sections confirms the progression of the end-Triassic extinction, which exhibits a two-phased structure. The presence of the ETME in the subsurface of the Netherlands provides further evidence towards our understanding of terrestrial extinction with emphasis on the decline of vegetation.

This paper describes the relationships between large-scale modes of climate variability and its related weather types with the fluctuations in the yield of maize crops in Veneto, Italy. The teleconnections analysed in this work are the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO); the West African monsoon (WAM) and the Intertropical Front (ITF). Despite that these indices are not rigorously linked to one another, they result in being considerably related to atmospheric circulation regimes and associated weather types. They have an impact on temperature and precipitation patterns in Italy and on yields of maize crops in Veneto, a region located in northeast Italy. Yields are strongly affected by large-scale temperate and tropical variability directly through three main circulation regimes. Troughing weather regimes that produced below average temperatures depress yields over the entire Veneto region, as does the zonal regime that affects rainfall. Results confirm the relevance of large-scale modes and associated weather regimes and types on maize crop yields fluctuations in Veneto.

The paper presents results from a study examining the relationship between large-scale modes of climate variability with the fluctuations in the yield of barley, durum wheat, olives and sunflower crops in Tuscany, Italy. In particular, the blocking circulation over the growing season, with associated hot and dry conditions, decreased yield for olive crops, barley and durum wheat. The teleconnections analysed in this study are the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO); the West African Monsoon (WAM) and the Intertropical Front (ITF); and although NAO, SNAO, ITF and WAM are not strictly related to each other, the values of these indices are strongly related to the atmospheric circulation regimes and related weather types. Thus, they have an impact on precipitation and temperature patterns in Italy and on yields of important crops in Tuscany. Results show that the large-scale temperate and tropical variability directly influences the crop yield through three main circulation regimes. These patterns illustrate the importance of the large-scale modes, which, together with the associated weather types, have an impact directly on Tuscan crop yields; both barley and olive yields decline significantly when the ITF is further north with warmer and drier conditions in Italy.

Research on ancient Greek rural settlement and agricultural economies often emphasises political agency as a driving force behind landscape change, with comparatively less attention directed to the potential effects of climate. This study analyses climate variability and the spatial configuration of land use in the north-eastern Peloponnese during the Late Hellenistic and Roman (c. 150 BC–AD 300) periods. A synthesis of archaeological field survey data combined with new palaeoclimatological data provides novel insight into how changing climate influenced land use. The authors argue that although climatic variability alone did not drive socio-economic change, drying conditions may have influenced the relocation of agricultural production.

We examine how migration is influenced by temperature and precipitation variability, and the extent to which the receipt of a cash transfer affects the use of migration as an adaptation strategy. Climate data is merged with georeferenced panel data (2010–2014) on individual migration collected from the Zambian Child Grant Program (CGP) sites. We use the person-year dataset to identify the direct and heterogeneous causal effects of the CGP on mobility. Having access to cash transfers doubles the rate of male, short-distance moves during cool periods, irrespective of wealth. Receipt of cash transfers (among wealthier households) during extreme heat causes an additional retention of males. Cash transfers positively spur long-distance migration under normal climate conditions in the long term. They also facilitate short-distance responses to climate, but not long-distance responses that might be demanded by future climate change.

Identifying options for the sustainable intensification of cropping systems in southern Africa under prevailing high climate risk is needed. With this in mind, we tested an intercropping system that combined the staple crop maize with lablab, a local but underutilised legume. Grain and biomass productivity was determined for four variants (i) sole maize (sole-maize), (ii) sole lablab (sole-lablab), (iii) maize/lablab with both crops sown simultaneously (intercropped-SP) and (iv) maize/lablab with lablab sown 28 days after the maize crop (intercropped-DP). Soil water and weather data were monitored and evaluated. The trial was conducted for two seasons (2015/2016 and 2016/2017) at two sites in the Limpopo Province, South Africa: Univen (847 mm rainfall, 29.2 °C maximum and 18.9 °C minimum temperature average for the cropping season over the years 2008–2017) and Syferkuil (491 mm rainfall, with 27.0 °C maximum and 14.8 °C minimum temperature). Analysis revealed three key results: The treatment with intercropped-SP had significantly lower maize yields (2320 kg ha−1) compared with maize in intercropped-DP (2865 kg ha−1) or sole-maize (2623 kg ha−1). As expected, maize yields in the El Niño affected in season 2015/2016 were on average 1688 kg ha−1 lower than in 2016/2017. Maize yields were significantly lower (957 kg ha−1) at Univen, the warmer site with higher rainfall, than at Syferkuil. In 2015/2016, maximum temperature at Univen exceeded 40 °C around anthesis. Furthermore, soil water was close to the estimated permanent wilting point (PWP) for most of the cropping season, which indicates possible water limitations. In Syferkuil, the soil water was maintained well above PWP. Lablab yields were low, around 500 ha−1, but stable as they were not affected by treatment across season and site. Overall, the study demonstrated that intercropped-DP appears to use available soil water more efficiently than sole maize. Intercropped-DP could therefore be considered as an option for sustainable intensification under high climate risk and resource-limited conditions for smallholders in southern Africa.

In Mali's current context, where the crops sector is particularly exposed and vulnerable to agricultural drought, this study assesses the economy-wide impacts of such events and the potential effectiveness of some adaptation strategies. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, we conduct counterfactual simulations of various scenarios accounting for different levels of intensity and frequency of droughts over a 15-year period. We first show how mild, moderate and intense droughts currently experienced by the country affect its economic performance and considerably degrade the welfare of its households. We also show how these negative impacts could be aggravated in the future by the likely increased number of intense droughts threatened by global climate change. However, we finally show that there appears to be some room for Mali to maneuver in terms of drought-risk management policies, such as fostering the use of drought-tolerant crop varieties, improving drought early warning systems or extending irrigation capacities.

Annually dated tree-rings of 509 live and deadwood limber pine (Pinus flexilis) samples from the semi-arid Wassuk Range, Nevada, yielded a 3996-yr record extending from 1983 BC to AD 2013. Correlations of radial growth with climate were positive for water relations and negative for summer temperatures. Long-term trends of ring-width corresponded to climate variability documented from other proxies, including low growth during the Late Holocene Dry Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and elevated growth during cool, wet periods of the Neoglacial and Little Ice Age. Spline fit of the data indicated that growth decrease in the last 20 years was second lowest on record, surpassed by lowest growth at 20 BC—AD 150. Demographics of limber pine by aspect and elevation were not strongly related to long-term climate dynamics, except in the case of extirpations on all but north aspects at the end of the MCA. Pines occurred persistently on north aspects, where a continuous record existed to present. Elevation shifts were not obvious on any aspect, and no evidence existed for migration above current treeline. Non-climatic factors appear to interact with climate to make north slopes refugial for upland pines in semi-arid regions across four millennia.

Paleoclimate records indicate that the hydroclimate of the northeast United States changed continuously during the Holocene, but the signals of multi-century variations have been difficult to distinguish from local effects and noise. Systematic replication of the signals can help diagnose the patterns of change. Here, we use ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and sediment core analyses to extend and compare the regional network of lake-level records. We reconstruct the histories of two lakes in northeast Pennsylvania, which show that multi-century hydrologic changes observed in coastal New England extended to the Susquehanna River watershed. Correlations with isotopic and marine temperature records (r>0.65) indicate that high temperatures coincided with low water at 4.9–3.8 and 2.8–2.0 ka. Widely recognized Holocene events at ca. 4.2 and 2.7 ka, therefore, may have shared similar ocean-atmosphere dynamics in this region. Low water levels in Pennsylvania from ca. 5.5–4.9 ka, however, demonstrate that other multi-century changes had different patterns. At ca. 5.5 ka, anti-phased inland and coastal hydrologic changes followed a sharp temperature decline and produced drought possibly as far inland as the Great Lakes. The long-term increase in water levels since then underscores that current pluvial conditions in the region probably lack a Holocene precedent.

Understanding pest population dynamics and seasonal phenology is a critical component of modern integrated pest-management programs. Accurate forecasting allows timely, cost-effective interventions, including maximum efficacy of, for example, biological control and/or sterile insect technique. Due to the variation in life stage-related sensitivity toward climate, insect pest population abundance models are often not easily interpreted or lack direct relevance to management strategies in the field. Here we apply a process-based (biophysical) model that incorporates climate data with life stage-dependent physiology and life history to attempt to predict Eldana saccharina life stage and generation turnover in sugarcane fields. Fitness traits are modelled at two agricultural locations in South Africa that differ in average temperature (hereafter a cold and a warm site). We test whether the life stage population structures in the field entering winter and local climate during winter directly affect development rates, and therefore interact to determine the population dynamics and phenological responses of E. saccharina in subsequent spring and summer seasons. The model predicts that: (1) E. saccharina can cycle through more generations at the warm site where fewer hours of cold and heat stress are endured, and (2) at the cold site, overwintering as pupae (rather than larvae) confer higher relative fitness and fecundity in the subsequent summer adult moths. The model predictions were compared with a large dataset of field observations from scouting records. Model predictions for larval presence (or absence) generally overlapped well with positive (or negative) scout records. These results are important for integrated pest management strategies by providing a useful foundation for future population dynamics models, and are applicable to a variety of agricultural landscapes, but especially the sugarcane industry of South Africa.

Multi-proxy records of a subalpine lacustrine sequence in Daping Swamp in the western Nanling Mountains provide evidence for exploring climate variability in the past 15,400 yr. Two dry and cool (15,400–14,500 and 13,000–11,000 cal yr BP) and one humid and warm interval (14,500–13,200 cal yr BP), which we correlate to Heinrich Event 1, the Younger Dryas and the Bølling-Allerød event respectively, are revealed. The early Holocene climate (11,000–8000 cal yr BP) was characterized by less humid and warm conditions, suggesting a weaker Asian summer monsoon (ASM) intensity. Our findings indicate that the Holocene optimum occurred between 8000 and 4500 cal yr BP, and the most intensified ASM appears from 8000 to 7000 cal yr BP. After 4500 cal yr BP, climate shifted to relatively cool and dry conditions. We speculate that five short dry and cool events centered at ~ 11,000, 9000, 8400, 6000, and 3500 cal yr BP were linked to the Holocene ice-rafting events detected in the North Atlantic. Migration of the ITCZ, and the oceanic–atmospheric circulations, particularly SST changes in the tropical Pacific may play a pivotal role in climate variation of the study region.

A high-resolution study of a marsh sedimentary sequence from the Minho estuary provides a new palaeoenvironmental reconstruction from NW Iberian based on geological proxies supported by historical and instrumental climatic records. A low-salinity tidal flat, dominated by Trochamminita salsa, Haplophragmoides spp. and Cribrostomoides spp., prevailed from AD 140–1360 (Roman Warm Period, Dark Ages, Medieval Climatic Anomaly). This sheltered environment was affected by high hydrodynamic episodes, marked by the increase in silt/clay ratio, decrease of organic matter, and poor and weakly preserved foraminiferal assemblages, suggesting enhanced river runoff. The establishment of low marsh began at AD 1380. This low-salinity environment, marked by colder and wet conditions, persisted from AD 1410–1770 (Little Ice Age), when foraminiferal density increased significantly. Haplophragmoides manilaensis and Trochamminita salsa mark the transition from low to high marsh at AD 1730. Since AD 1780 the abundances of salt marsh species (Jadammina macrescens, Trochammina inflata) increased, accompanied by a decrease in foraminiferal density, reflecting climate instability, when droughts alternate with severe floods. SW Europe marsh foraminifera respond to the hydrological balance, controlled by climatic variability modes (e.g., NAO) and solar activity, thus contributing to the understanding of NE Atlantic climate dynamics.

Paleoecological studies from Rocky Mountain (USA) high elevations encompassing the previous interglacial (MIS 5e) are rare. The ~10-m composite profile from the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site (2705 m asl) of central Colorado allows us to determine paleoenvironments from Marine Oxygen Isotope Stages (MIS) 6– 4 using pollen zones that are approximately equivalent to marine oxygen isotope stages. During Pollen Zone (PZ) 6 time, pollen assemblages dominated by Artemisia (sagebrush) suggest that alpine tundra or steppe occurred nearby. The transition to PZ 5e was characterized by a rapid increase in tree pollen, initially Picea (spruce) and Pinus (pine) but also Quercus (oak) and Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir). Non-arboreal pollen (NAP) types increased during PZ 5d, while Abies (fir) and Juniperus (juniper) increased during PZ 5c. Pollen evidence suggests that temperatures during PZ 5b were as cold as during PZ 6, with the site again surrounded by alpine tundra. Picea dominated during PZ 5a before the onset of cooler conditions during PZ 4. The MIS 6–MIS 5e transition here was similar to the MIS 2–MIS 1 transition at other Rocky Mountain sites. However, the Ziegler Reservoir pollen record contains evidence suggesting unexpected climatic trends at this site, including a warmer-than-expected MIS 5d and cooler-than-expected MIS 5b.

Arid Central Asia (ACA) lies on a major climatic boundary between the mid-latitude westerlies and the northwestern limit of the Asian summer monsoon, yet only a few high-quality reconstructions exist for its climate history. Here we calibrate a new organic geochemical proxy for lake temperature, and present a 45-yr-resolution temperature record from Hurleg Lake at the eastern margin of the ACA in the northern Tibetan Plateau. Combination with other proxy data from the same samples reveals a distinct warm–dry climate association throughout the record, which contrasts with the warm–wet association found in the Asian monsoon region. This indicates that the climatic boundary between the westerly and the monsoon regimes has remained roughly in the same place throughout the Holocene, at least near our study site. Six millennial-scale cold events are found within the past 9000 yr, which approximately coincide with previously documented events of northern high-latitude cooling and tropical drought. This suggests a connection between the North Atlantic and tropical monsoon climate systems, via the westerly circulation. Finally, we also observe an increase in regional climate variability after the mid-Holocene, which we relate to changes in vegetation (forest) cover in the monsoon region through a land-surface albedo feedback.

We present stable isotope data (δ18O, δ13C) from a detrital rich stalagmite from Kapsia Cave, the Peloponnese, Greece. The cave is rich in archeological remains and there are reasons to believe that flooding of the cave has directly affected humans using the cave. Using a combination of U–Th and 14C dating to constrain a site-specific correction factor for (232Th/238U) detrital molar ratio, a linear age model was constructed. The age model shows that the stalagmite grew during the period from ca. 950 BC to ca. AD 830. The stable oxygen record from Kapsia indicates cyclical changes of close to 500 yr in precipitation amount, with rapid shifts towards wetter conditions followed by slowly developing aridity. Superimposed on this signal, wetter conditions are inferred around 850, 700, 500 and 400–100 BC, and around AD 160–300 and AD 770; and driest conditions are inferred to have occurred around 450 BC, AD 100–150 and AD 650. Detrital horizons in the stalagmite indicate that three major floods took place in the cave at 500 BC, 70 BC and AD 450. The stable carbon isotope record reflects changes in biological activity being a result of both climate and human activities.

Establishing natural climate variability becomes particularly important in remote polar regions, especially when considering questions regarding higher than average warming. We present a high-resolution record of temperature variability for the past 800 yr based on sedimentary diatoms from a treeline lake in Finnish Lapland. The BSiZer multiscale smoothing technique is applied to the data to identify significant features in the record at different temporal levels. The overall reconstruction shows relatively large multi-centennial temperature variability with a total range of about 0.6–0.8°C. At millennial scales, the temperatures exhibit a statistically significant long-term cooling trend prior to industrialization (ΔT = −0.03°C/century). At the centennial timescale, three warm time intervals were identified around AD 1200–1300 (terminal phase of the Medieval Warm Period, MWP), 1380–1550 and from 1920 until the present. Pronounced coolness occurred between AD 1600 and 1920, indicative of the Little Ice Age (LIA). At the decadal level, certain shorter-term climate excursions were revealed. The warmest ∼10–30 yr, non-overlapping periods occurred in AD 1220–1250, 1470–1500 and 1970–2000, respectively. The classic events of MWP and LIA are evident in our record, as is also the 20th century warming.

Palaeosalinity records for groundwater-influenced lakes in the southwest Murray Basin were constructed from an ostracod-based, weighted-averaging transfer function, supplemented with evidence from Campylodiscus clypeus (diatom), charophyte oogonia, Coxiella striata (gastropod), Elphidium sp. (foraminifera), Daphniopsis sp. ephippia (Cladocera), and brine shrimp (Parartemia zietziana) faecal pellets, the δ18O of ostracods, and > 130 μm quartz sand counts. The chronology is based on optically stimulated luminescence and calibrated radiocarbon ages. Relatively wet conditions are marked by lower salinities between 9600 yr and 5700 yr ago, but mutually exclusive high- and low-salinity ostracod communities suggest substantial variability in effective precipitation in the early Holocene. A drier climate was firmly in place by 4500 yr and is marked at the groundwater-dominated NW Jacka Lake by an increase in aeolian quartz and at Jacka Lake, by a switch from surface-water to groundwater dominance. Short-lived, low-salinity events at 8800, 7200, 5900, 4800, 2400, 1300 and 400 yr are similar in timing and number to those recorded on Australia's southern continental shelf, and globally, and provide evidence for the existence of the ~ 1500-yr cycle in mainland southern Australia. We surmise that these are cool events associated with periodic equatorward shifts in the westerly wind circulation.

In order to examine high-frequency variations of East Asian winter monsoon in Quaternary climatic extremes, two typical loess–paleosol sequences in the Chinese Loess Plateau were investigated. Sandy layers in the loess deposits, the “Upper sand” and “Lower sand” (layers L9 and L15, respectively), which represent a high-resolution record of paleomonsoon changes, have been sampled at intervals of 5–6 cm from sections at Luochuan and Xifeng. The grain size and magnetic susceptibility was measured for all samples. The grain-size results (a proxy of winter monsoon strength) indicate that the winter monsoon strength fluctuated on a millennial timescale during cold climatic extremes, with climatic events of a few hundred to a few thousand years. However, the winter monsoon was relatively stable during warm periods. The magnetic susceptibility signal (a proxy of summer monsoon intensity) is practically constant over the same period. This is tentatively explained by the assumption that the summer monsoon intensity was too low to be recorded in the magnetic susceptibility signal. The intensified winter monsoon events show periodicities in a range of 1000 to 2770 yr, with a dominant cycle of approximately 1450 yr. The detection of this oscillation in older glacial stages strongly suggests that it may be a pervasive cycle of the cold climatic phases of the Quaternary. Millennial-scale variations of the winter monsoon may be caused by instability of the westerly jet, which is determined by temperature differences between the polar and the equatorial regions.