M.R. ADULDEJ CHAKRABANDHU

Aduldej was born on 7 January 1940 in the province of Bangkok. He is the son of Momchao Warathiwath and Rumala and is married to M.R. Benjawan. He attended the Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy. As Lieutenant-Colonel and Commander of the 1st Cavalry Squadron, King's Guard, Aduldej was appointed to the Senate in 1979.

AKARADEJ SASIPRAPHA

Akaradej was born on 31 December 1940 in the district of Muang, Udonthani, the son of Lt.-Gen. Ard. He attended the Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy. Akaradej was appointed to the Senate in 1979 with the rank of Major and the position of Commander of the 3rd Battalion of the 1st Regiment.

AMNAD DAMRIGAN

Amnad was born on 2 October 1922 in the province of Bangkok. He is the son of Khun Sonthisaranan and Jitt. He attended the Military Cadet Academy, and had had training experience abroad. While holding the rank of Lieutenant-General and in the position of Deputy Chief of Staff of the Royal Thai Army, Amnad was elected to the Senate. He died in 1981.

AMNUAY CHUKES

Amnuay was born on 15 July 1924 in the province of Bangkok. He is the son of Khun Sunthornsombat and Ob and is married to Kobsuk. He attended the Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy and the Army War College. As Colonel and Commander of the 7th Regiment, Amnuay was appointed to the National Legislative Assembly and subsequently to the Senate.

AMPHORN SVETASARNI

Amphorn was born on 28 July 1936 in the province of Bangkok. He is the son of Lt.-Col. Arun and Norn and is married to Watcharee. He attended the Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy and the Army Command and General Staff College. As Lieutenant-Colonel and Commander of the 3rd Battalion of the 11th Regiment at Rachaburi, Amphorn was appointed to the Senate.

ANEK BOONYATEE

Anek was born on 21 July 1924 in the district of Muang, Trad.

AKHOM ATHAVEDYAVORAVUD

Akhom was born on 25 January 1934 in the Muang district of Chiang Mai province. He is the son of Luang Athavedyavoravud and Sombun. He is married to Jitanong. He attended the Royal Thai Air Force Academy and the Air Command and Staff College. While holding the rank of Wing Commander and in the position of Commander of Wing 41, Akhom was appointed to the National Legislative Assembly. Subsequently, with the rank of Group Captain he was appointed to the Senate.

AMPORN CONDEE

Amporn was born on 6 December 1921 in the Na San district of Surat Thani province. He is the son of Sing and Sema and is married to Nomjit. He attended the Military Technical Academy, the Flying Training School, the Air Command and Staff College, and the National Defence College. He has had training experience abroad. Amporn was appointed to the National Legislative Assembly with the rank of Air Vice Marshal and the position of Deputy Chief of Air Staff for Intelligence. His rank is now that of Air Chief Marshal.

ARUN PROMDHEP

Arun was born on 4 December 1927 in the Muang district of Samut Prakan province to Kham and Phai. He is married to Chuanpis. He attended the Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy, the Flying Training School in the USA, and the Air Command and Staff College in England. He has also had training experience abroad. With the rank of Air Vice Marshal and in the position of Director of Operations, Arun was appointed to the National Administrative Reform Assembly, then to the National Legislative Assembly and subsequently to the Senate. His present rank is that of Air Chief Marshal.

BANCHA SUKHANUSAS

Bancha was born on 26 January 1921 in the Muang district of Chiangrai province to Phra Dulyathannapreechawai and Mrs Dulyathannapreechawai.

As gods in the Chinese religious pantheon can choose to be benevolent as well as malevolent and are believed to possess power over human health, fertility, and fortune, they must be ritually propitiated. To worship the gods, incense is burnt daily at shrines and temples. In addition, the gods' birthdays are regarded as special events. On these occasions, regular devotees of the particular deity bring offerings, joss-sticks and incense to the temple premises. The larger than usual crowd draws hawkers to the vicinity. Sometimes, street theatres in the form of opera and puppet shows are also performed to entertain and to thank the deities for favours granted. All these – the crowd, the hawkers and the entertainment – create the atmosphere of a festival.

More recently, modern stage shows called ko-tai (literally translated as “song stage”) have played a part in religious festivals as well. These stage shows, featuring Chinese and Western popular songs (accompanied by electric-guitar bands) and comic sketches, are usually performed for two or three days after the traditional operas have been staged. There is thus a mix of traditional and modern theatres in religious festivals today.

Although various preliminary studies of the traditional opera and puppet theatre in Malaysia are avail able, no investigations have been conducted on the ko-tai which can be found in the streets of Penang throughout the year and which attracts large audiences. A study of the ko-tai is thus pertinent.

In this paper, I shall discuss the nature and content of the ko-tai and attempt to explain its popularity in Penang. The findings are based on attendance of some 100 ko-tai shows, 200 comic sketches, and interviews with proprietors, managers, performers, and audiences of different ko-tai troupes in Penang over a period of three years (1979–81). The comic sketches and songs performed were also taped for analysis.

This paper presents the detailed results of the computation of the population projections for Singapore by sex and for time intervals of five years from 1980 to 2070. Two sets of figures were prepared to indicate two plausible future courses of population trends, one according to replacement fertility from 1990 thereafter and the other according to constant 1980 fertility. They are known as Projection A and Projection B, respectively. A brief description of the methodology adopted to prepare these population projections and a short commentary on the results of the computation are also presented.

The 1980 base population classified by sex and quinary age group up to age 85 and over is obtained from the population census conducted in June 1980. The figures are given in Census of Population 1980, Release No. 1, published by the Department of Statistics, Singapore.

The survival ratios are obtained from the 1979-81 Abridged Life Tables prepared by the author and published in “Increasing Life Expectancy in Singapore During 1969-1981”, Singapore Medical Journal 24 (1983). The values of the survival ratios, known as Px, for the various quinary age groups for each of the two sexes are computed from the values of the Lx column of the Abridged Life Tables.

The age-specific fertility rates and the gross reproduction rates are based on population data published in the above census report and on birth data published in the Report on the Registration of Births and Deaths for the year 1980. The female population by quinary age group and the births by similar age group of mothers are utilized to compute the age-specific fertility rate and the gross reproduction rates. The former rates are applied to the future female population in the reproductive ages to estimate the births that will occur in every five-year period.

The detailed results of the computation for Projection A and Projection B are presented in Tables 1 to 6. The figures for Projection A given in Table 1 show that if fertility measured by the gross reproduction rate increases from 0.841 in 1980 to 0.939 in 1985 and then to 1.025 in 1990 and thereafter, the population of Singapore is expected to increase from 2,413,945 in 1980 to 3,087,303 in 2000 and to 3,499,822 in 2020. It continues to increase to 3,599,540 in 2035, and after this it declines to 3,582,173 in 2050. Thereafter it increases again but very slowly, reaching 3,604,089 in 2070. In fact, in broad terms the population is seen to remain constant at about 3.6 million from 2025 onwards.

The figures for Projection B given in Table 4 reveal that a completely different path would be followed by the population in the future if the gross reproduction rate remains constant at the 1980 level of 0.841. In this case the population is expected to grow from 2,413,945 in 1980 to 2,945,060 in 2000 and to the peak of 3,129,313 in 2020, after which it follows a downward trend all the way. From the peak of 3,129,313, the population will decline to 2,990,138 in 2035, to 2,703,184 in 2050, and finally to 2,361,677 at the end of the period in 2070.

In preparing the two sets of population projections it is necessary to make certain assumptions regarding the future course of migration, mortality, and fertility. The following assumptions were adopted for Projection A and Projection B:

Projection A

Migration

It is assumed that the population in Singapore is a closed population not subjected to international migration.

Mortality

It is assumed that the 1979–81 mortality level with a life expectancy at birth of 68.4 years for the males and 74.3 years for the females will improve over time to a life expectancy of 72.6 for the males by 2040 and a life expectancy of 75.2 by 200b for the females.

Fertility

It is assumed that the gross reproduction rate will rise from 0.841 in 1980 to 0.939 in 1985 and to 1.025 in 1990, after which it will remain constant at this replacement fertility level until 2070.

Projection B

Migration

It is assumed that the population in Singapore is a closed population not subjected to international migration.

Mortality

It is assumed that the 1979-81 mortality level with a life expectancy at birth of 68.4 years for the males and 74.3 years for the females will improve over time to a life expectancy of 72.6 for the males by 2040 and a life expectancy of 75.2 by 2005 for the females.

Fertility

It is assumed that the gross reproduction rate will remain constant below the replacement fertility level at the 1980 rate of 0.841 throughout the whole period of projection.

The projections were prepared by what is known as the component method which consists of the separate projections of the number of males and females in each age of the population. As a matter of convenience we project the population by time-intervals equal to the age-intervals into which it has been divided. Since the 1980 base population has been divided into quinary age groups, the projections are most easily made for five-year intervals of time which implies that at the end of the five-year period all the survivors of one age group would have moved into the next higher age group. Each cohort of the 1980 sex-age group is diminished to account for mortality with the passage of time. This step requires a set of five-year survival ratios which are deemed to represent mortality in each cohort during specific periods of time subsequent to 1980. A multiplication of the original number in each sex-age group by the relevant ratio will yield the estimated number of persons five years older at a date which is five years later, namely, 1985. A repetition of the procedure will furnish the estimated population age ten years older than those at the base date and for the ten years later.

The second step involves the estimation of the future number of children born in each five-year time-interval subsequent to the base date in order to fill in the vacuum in the first age group 0-4 at periods of time every five years later. To begin with, it is essential to formulate a set of plausible assumptions regarding the future course of fertility in terms of the gross reproduction rates with their equivalent age-specific fertility rates. Having worked out these rates, they are then utilized in conjunction with the female population in the relevant reproductive age groups to derive the estimated number of births for the various five-year periods. The number of births surviving to the end of a given five-year period can be estimated by multiplying the number of births during the period with the appropriate survival ratio.