INTRODUCTION

The trafficking of firearms is unlike many of the other forms of trafficking discussed in this book because firearms are durable goods. Unlike drugs, rhino horn, or counterfeit pharmaceuticals, a well-maintained AK-47 will last indefinitely. As a result, there is little need for a continuous contraband flow. Trafficking tends to be episodic, often from an established stockpile to a region descending into crisis.

In addition, the modern pistol or assault rifle represents a “mature technology,” so current weapons holders do not need to regularly update their stock to remain competitive. There has been very little innovation in small arms design in the last fifty years – it appears there are few ways to make small arms more accurate or more deadly than they are today. Consequently, the number of new small arms purchased each year is only about 1 percent of those already in circulation. Even the world’s most innovative militaries only update their small arms every second decade or so.

As the global turnover in the licit arms industry is limited, the same is likely true for the illicit arms industry. Many still-functional weapons were distributed in developing countries during the Cold War and thereafter, and since the destruction of weapons has been limited in many parts of the world, there is little need to import new weapons into these regions today. Small Arms Survey, a Geneva-based arms monitoring group, estimated the global authorized trade in firearms has been estimated at approximately US$1.58 billion in 2006, with unrecorded but licit transactions making up another US$100 million or so. The most commonly cited estimate for the size of the illicit market is 10 percent to 20 percent of the licit market, which would be about US$170 million to US$320 million per annum. h is may sound like a lot of money, but it appears to be diffused among a large number of small players. It is also small compared to, for example, the value of drug markets, typically estimated to be in the tens of billions of dollars.