Most of the multivariate counting processes studied in the literature are regular processes, which implies, ignoring the types of the events, the non-occurrence of multiple events. However, in practice, several different types of events may occur simultaneously. In this paper, a new class of multivariate counting processes which allow simultaneous occurrences of multiple types of events is suggested and its stochastic properties are studied. For the modeling of such kind of process, we rely on the tool of superposition of seed counting processes. It will be shown that the stochastic properties of the proposed class of multivariate counting processes are explicitly expressed. Furthermore, the marginal processes are also explicitly obtained. We analyze the multivariate dependence structure of the proposed class of counting processes.

Markov modulated fluid models are studied in this paper. When the input of the fluid model is represented by one Markov chain, two approaches are given that result in asymptotic expressions for the overflow probability. Both approaches are based on large deviations theories. The equivalence of the expressions is proved. When the input is represented by N similar Markov chains, a reduction property is derived.

Techniques of exploratory data analysis are used in the construction of simple approximations for the percentage points of the chi-square distribution. The approximations are direct functions of the degrees of freedom and the tail probability. They are more accurate than Hoaglin's approximations.

We consider an inventory system with compound Poisson demands replenished by discrete production of units on a single-server facility. This facility may start a vacation at any production completion epoch; at the completion of a vacation the inventory level is inspected to decide whether or not to resume production. Unit production and vacation times are independent and identically distributed with general distributions. Under an (s, S) policy, production is terminated when the inventory level reaches a critical level S, and production is resumed when the inventory level, upon completion of a vacation, is at or below a prespecified value s. In this paper we prove that an (s, S) policy is optimal among all possible policies. We also derive a highly efficient algorithm for the determination and evaluation of an optimal (s, S) policy.

Let $X_1, \ldots, X_n$ be mutually independent exponential random variables with distinct hazard rates $\lambda _1, \ldots, \lambda _n$ and let $Y_1, \ldots, Y_n$ be a random sample from the exponential distribution with hazard rate $\bar \lambda = \sum _{i=1}^{n} \lambda _i/n$. Also let $X_{1:n} \lt \cdots \lt X_{n:n}$ and $Y_{1:n} \lt \cdots \lt Y_{n:n}$ be their associated order statistics. It is proved that for $1\le i \lt j \le n$, the generalized spacing $X_{j:n} - X_{i:n}$ is more dispersed than $Y_{j:n} - Y_{i:n}$ according to dispersive ordering and for $2\le i \le n$, the dependence of $X_{i:n}$ on $X_{1:n}$ is less than that of $Y_{i:n}$ on $Y_{1 :n}$, in the sense of the more stochastically increasing ordering. This dependence result is also extended to the proportional hazard rates (PHR) model. This extends the earlier work of Genest et al. [(2009)]. On the range of heterogeneous samples. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 100: 1587–1592] who proved this result for $i =n$.

Discrete-time queues are frequently used in telecommunication networks. This paper proposes a new method which is based only on probabilistic arguments. It derives the distributions of numbers of customers in the discrete-time systems Geom/G/1 and Geom/G/1/M. Though the derivation does not involve use of the transforms, the transforms may be obtained, if desired. Another advantage of this is that the numerical results obtained are stable as there are no negative signs involved in summations. Further, the method can be easily used to solve more complex problems in discrete- and continuous-time queues.

In this paper, we consider the interval availability distribution of a two-state single unit. We fit the interval availability distribution directly to a beta distribution, such that the probability of nil and a 100% availability is correct as well as the expectation and the variance. The method is fast and easy to implement and gives good results.

We consider the problem of a firm facing failures with weak forewarning signals. In the base model that we study, the firm watches for signals of a random arrival of a disruptive innovation and continuously updates the posterior probability that a disruptive innovation has already happened. A disruptive innovation is marked by a rapid increase in the growth rate of the market for a new technology, and it is followed by a random arrival of catastrophic failure of the firm. The firm can invest capital to adopt the innovation to prevent failure. The optimal policy is to adopt it when the posterior probability exceeds an optimally chosen threshold. We investigate the probability of failure under the optimal policy when the cost of failure is large and the arrival rate of disruptive innovation is low. The probability of failure is close to one if the arrival rate is extremely low while it is close to zero if the arrival rate is moderate. We also consider an extension of the base model to incorporate recurrence of disruptive innovation; when the arrival rate is moderate, the optimal threshold and the failure probability can be significantly larger than those of the base model.

Motivated by hydrological applications, the exact distributions of R = X + Y, P = XY, and W = X/(X + Y) and the corresponding moment properties are derived when X and Y follow Block and Basu's bivariate exponential distribution. An application of the results is provided to drought data from Nebraska.

The random neural network (RNN) is a mathematical model for an “integrate and fire” spiking network that closely resembles the stochastic behavior of neurons in mammalian brains. Since its proposal in 1989, there have been numerous investigations into the RNN's applications and learning algorithms. Deep learning (DL) has achieved great success in machine learning. Recently, the properties of the RNN for DL have been investigated, in order to combine their power. Recent results demonstrate that the gap between RNNs and DL can be bridged and the DL tools based on the RNN are faster and can potentially be used with less energy expenditure than existing methods.

In this article, we study comparison theorems for stochastic functionals like V(∞;C) = sup0≤t {M(t) − C(t)} or V(T;C) = sup0≤t≤T {M(t) − C(t)}, where {M(t)} and {C(t)} are two independent nondecreasing processes with stationary increments. We will tacitly assume that the considered stochastic functionals are proper random variables. We prove that V(T;C′) ≤icxV(T;C) ≤icxV(T;C′′), where and C′′(dt) = c(0) dt, provided dC(t) is absolute continuous with density c(t). Similarly, we show that V(∞;C′) ≤icxV(∞;C) ≤icxV(∞;C′′). For proofs, we develop the theory of the ≤idcv ordering defined by increasing directionally concave functions. We apply the theory to M/G/1 priority queues and M/G/1 queues with positive and negative customers.

A pool design is random if it varies according to a probability distribution. There are four types of random design proposed in the literature: random incidence design, random k-set design, random distinct k-set design, and random k-size design. Recently Hwang gave an approximation to estimate the number of unresolved positives for random distinct k-set design. In this article, we give exact formulas for all four types of random designs for estimating the number of unresolved positives. We also do some numerical comparisons of the four designs.

This paper studies the parameter estimation for Ornstein–Uhlenbeck stochastic volatility models driven by Lévy processes. We propose computationally efficient estimators based on the method of moments that are robust to model misspecification. We develop an analytical framework that enables closed-form representation of model parameters in terms of the moments and autocorrelations of observed underlying processes. Under moderate assumptions, which are typically much weaker than those for likelihood methods, we prove large-sample behaviors for our proposed estimators, including strong consistency and asymptotic normality. Our estimators obtain the canonical square-root convergence rate and are shown through numerical experiments to outperform likelihood-based methods.

In this article we first give a characterization of a class of probability transition matrices having closed-form solutions for transient distributions and the steady-state distribution. We propose to apply the stochastic comparison approach to construct bounding chains belonging to this class. Therefore, bounding chains can be analyzed efficiently through closed-form solutions in order to provide bounds on the distributions of the considered Markov chain. We present algorithms to construct upper-bounding matrices in the sense of the ≤st and ≤icx order.

Under a suitable condition on the conditional moment generating function of the martingale differences, an exponential supermartingale is used to generalize certain martingale inequalities due to Blackwell and Ross.

This article considers the optimization and optimality of single-item/location, infinite-horizon, (s,S) inventory models. Departing from the conventional approach, we do not assume the loss function describing holding and shortage costs per period to be quasiconvex. As the existing optimization algorithms have been established on the condition of quasiconvexity, our goal in this article is to develop a computational procedure for obtaining optimal (s,S) policies for models with general loss functions. Our algorithm is based on the parametric method commonly used in fractional programming and is intuitive, exact, and efficient. Moreover, this method allows us to extend the optimality of (s,S) policies to a broader class of loss functions that can be non-quasiconvex.

This paper compares the reliability functions of the cold standby, hot standby, and load-sharing redundancy configurations, each of which is composed of two identical components for meeting a given system requirement. Thus far, no research has been done into the conditions that make one configuration more reliable than another because their reliability functions have no closed forms even when the component follows a Weibull lifetime distribution. In this paper, two analytical results are obtained given that the reliability of each configuration is expressed in terms of the design and operational loads of the component. First, higher reliability can be achieved in a cold standby configuration than in a load-sharing configuration if the increase in the component reliability obtained from the reduction in the operational load is not significant. Second, a cold standby configuration exhibits better reliability and carries a higher load than a hot standby configuration if the design load can be increased with a less decrease in the component reliability.

It is known that Cournot game theory has been one of the theoretical approaches used more often to model electricity market behavior. Nevertheless, this approach is highly influenced by the residual demand curves of the market agents, which are usually not precisely known. This imperfect information has normally been studied with probability theory, but possibility theory might sometimes be more helpful in modeling not only uncertainty but also imprecision and vagueness. In this paper, two dual approaches are proposed to compute a robust Cournot equilibrium, when the residual demand uncertainty is modeled with possibility distributions. Additionally, it is shown that these two approaches can be combined into a bicriteria programming model, which can be solved with an iterative algorithm. Some interesting results for a real-size electricity system show the robustness of the proposed methodology.

We consider asset allocation strategies for the case where an investor can allocate his wealth dynamically between a risky stock, whose price evolves according to a geometric Brownian motion, and a risky bond, whose price is subject to negative jumps due to its credit risk and therefore has discontinuous sample paths. We derive optimal policies for a number of objectives related to growth. In particular, we obtain the policy that minimizes the expected time to reach a given target value of wealth in an exact explicit form. We also show that this policy is exactly equivalent to the policy that is optimal for maximizing logarithmic utility of wealth and, hence, the expected average rate at which wealth grows, as well as to the policy that maximizes the actual asymptotic rate at which wealth grows. Our results generalize and unify results obtained previously for cases where the bond was risk-free in both continuous- and discrete-time.

One problem of wide interest involves estimating expected crossing-times. Several tools have been developed to solve this problem beginning with the works of Wald and the theory of sequential analysis. Deriving the explicit close form solution for the expected crossing times may be difficult. In this paper, we provide a framework that can be used to estimate expected crossing times of arbitrary stochastic processes. Our key assumption is the knowledge of the average behavior of the supremum of the process. Our results include a universal sharp lower bound on the expected crossing times. Furthermore, for a wide class of time-homogeneous, Markov processes, including Bessel processes, we are able to derive an upper bound E[a(Tr)]≤2r, which implies that sup r>0|((E[a(Tr)]−r)/r)|≤1, where a(t)=E[sup tXt] with {Xt}t≥0 be a non-negative, measurable process. This inequality motivates our claim that a(t) can be viewed as a natural clock for all such processes. The cases of multidimensional processes, non-symmetric and random boundaries are handled as well. We also present applications of these bounds on renewal processes in Example 10 and other stochastic processes.