This paper examines an intertemporal optimizing consumer or a representative consumer-firm in a deterministic setting subject to a general (either linear or nonlinear) capital accumulation equation. Duality theory is used to recast the Hamilton–Jacobi equation for dynamic optimization in terms of an instantaneous and an intertemporal profit function. An envelope theorem allows derivation of an explicit solution for the value of the costate variable as a function of the state and other variables. The final model form only requires specification of atemporal functions that are linked into a closed-form solution for the optimal dynamic decision variables through a system of contemporaneous simultaneous equations.

One of the most important advantages of an inflation target is that it helps to reduce uncertainty about future inflation. However, this confidence may be undermined if actual inflation continuously deviates from the target level. We examine how inflation uncertainty relates to the presence of an inflation target and deviations of inflation from the targeted level. Inflation uncertainty is quantified by means of an unobserved components stochastic volatility model that allows to distinguish between permanent and transitory inflation uncertainty. While long-term inflation appears largely stable in most economies, the short-term inflation uncertainty is found to be time-varying. Most notably, short-term inflation uncertainty is high if inflation rates are below the target level. This is particularly relevant for economies which are currently confronted with the presence of persistently low-inflation rates. Our findings suggest that announcing higher inflation targets as it is currently discussed may be costly in terms of provoking higher inflation uncertainty.

This paper proposes a financial accelerator framework to study the effects of heterogeneous and bounded rational expectations on macroeconomic dynamics. The paper examines the fluctuations effects departing from the rational expectations hypothesis in order to understand if there are significant implications on macroeconomic volatility and policy prescriptions. The findings suggest that macroeconomic stability and inflation dynamics depend on the chosen set of forecasting rules, as well as on the monetary policy adopted. The model shows that no monetary policy is able to quickly stabilize the system, as some fluctuations persist. Central banks face a trade-off between macro-volatility and speed of convergence to the steady state. This result offers some ground for fiscal policies aiming to prompt system stability. In addition, the analysis reveals a counterintuitive result confirming the “less-is-more” effect: increasing the decision-making and computational abilities of the agents may not lead the system to converge to the preferable steady state.

This paper analyzes the role and importance of “inside” money, made out of commercial banks' liabilities, for a New Keynesian model of the type commonly used for monetary policy analysis. The active role of inside money stems from its unique role in allowing payment for at least some consumption goods; shocks to the production of inside money may therefore have real effects. A calibrated version of the model is shown to generate small, but nonnegligible effects of inside money shocks on output and inflation. Moreover, the presence of inside money in the model leads to a slight attenuation of the effect of technology and monetary policy shocks. Finally, it is found that it is optimal for monetary policy to react to inside money shocks, but reacting to inflation alone does not result in a significant loss of household welfare.

We study the sensitivity of the inflation–growth trade-off in monetary growth models to the introduction of search frictions in the labor market. We consider three types of endogenous growth models: (1) the AK model, (2) the Lucas supply-side model, and (3) the two-sector model of Jones and Manuelli. We show that the effects depend on the specification of the cash-in-advance constraint and the magnitude of the semi-interest elasticity of the income velocity. For the AK model, economic growth increases with higher inflation. For the other two models, growth declines for the case of the standard cash-in-advance constraint on consumption, whereas it either increases or decreases if money is introduced, as in the cash–credit good economy of Dotsey and Ireland, depending on the semi-interest elasticity of the income velocity. The welfare effects of inflation are shown to be economically significant in the presence of search unemployment.

The stationary sunspot equilibria of a simple overlapping generations economy with heterogeneous agents are considered. These equilibria are known to be suboptimal. The focus of the paper is on the efficacy, based on welfare economic considerations and informational requirements, of government policy in such an environment. The main result is that knowledge of the sunspot equilibrium net trades, weak interval-type information on two parameters, and weak set-type information on the location of some optimal stationary allocation is sufficient to induce a competitive equilibrium that is a Pareto optimal Pareto improvement over the sunspot allocation, which has the further property of reaching a Pareto optimal stationary allocation in finite time. The results are interpreted as demonstrating that, in a simple model with a sunspot environment, policy is very effective and welfare economic considerations lead to stabilization.

The perception that inflation targeting (IT) runs a high risk of indeterminacy when a significant share of households are too poor to save is an artifact of the closed economy. In the open economy, the Taylor principle is generally valid for both contemporaneous and forward-looking IT. Active policy in contemporaneous IT guarantees determinacy, eccentric cases aside. In forward-looking IT, the scope for active policy is constrained by an upper bound on the Taylor coefficient. The upper bound is insensitive, however, to the share of poor, nonsaving households. Moreover, it can be increased substantially–to a level that does not bind–through reserve sales/purchases that limit exchange rate volatility.

Linear dynamical systems are widely used in many different fields from engineering to economics. One simple but important class of such systems is called the single-input transfer function model. Suppose that all variables of the system are sampled for a period using a fixed sample rate. The central issue of this paper is the determination of the smallest sampling rate that will yield a sample that will allow the investigator to identify the discrete-time representation of the system. A critical sampling rate exists that will identify the model. This rate, called the Nyquist rate, is twice the highest frequency component of the system. Sampling at a lower rate will result in an identification problem that is serious. The standard assumptions made about the model and the unobserved innovation errors in the model protect the investigators from the identification problem and resulting biases of undersampling. The critical assumption that is needed to identify an undersampled system is that at least one of the exogenous time series be white noise.

We investigate the optimal path of the primary surplus that a government will choose to minimize costs that derive from exceeding the Maastricht criteria and generally of a “stability pact,” where we assume three components of costs that are related to (1) the debt-to-GDP ratio, (2) the overall deficit-to-GDP ratio, and (3) the acceptance level of savings in the economy. We show that various political-economic settings can result in completely different equilibrium strategies of the debt-to-GDP ratio and the primary deficit. The spectrum of possible optimal strategies ranges from no stationary solutions to multiple equilibrium and cyclical solutions and from positive to negative levels of the optimal debt-to-GDP ratio. Our results emphasize the importance of macroeconomic and behavioral (acceptance rate of a policy) variables in order to explain complex economic time series.

When producers are heterogeneous, the degree of competition between them affects aggregate output not only via markups and deadweight losses, but also through aggregate productivity due to specialization. As competition tightens, high-productivity producers gain market share at the cost of low-productivity ones, generating economic growth through increased aggregate productivity and capital accumulation, in line with what is observed empirically. Consequently, competition is not limited to reducing deadweight losses, and can play a greater role in economic growth and development than traditionally assumed. Economic growth spurs profits, which leads to entry and increased competition that generates growth, so competition provides a channel through which the economy generates growth internally. When strong enough, this channel can make the returns to scale in the inputs that the economy accumulates endogenously go from being decreasing to nondecreasing at the aggregate level, thus enabling endogenous growth. In fact, these returns to scale are determined endogenously in our model, and vary with the scale of production, the degree of producer heterogeneity, and the barriers to entry.

In recent years, there has been an explosive increase in the demand for health products and services by people all around the globe, and particularly in advanced economies. Aiming to enhance longevity and also to improve quality of life, individual consumption of pharmaceutical products and services has risen exponentially since the early 1980s. This paper develops a model in which agents invest part of their resources in medical products and time in physical exercise to enhance their health status. In the first part of the paper, we study the steady state and transitional dynamics of the model with special emphasis on the effects of health decisions on aggregate outcomes. In the second part, we explore how public health policies may alter private economic decisions that promote healthier and more productive lives.

We amend the canonical matching model by assuming diminishing returns to labor. We put the model to the twin test of generating a high volatility of labor market variables in response to productivity shocks (the “Shimer puzzle”) and a moderate response to changes in unemployment benefits and find that it passes that test. It does not feature wage rigidity, nor is it based on a small surplus calibration. Diminishing returns introduce a distinction between marginal and average surplus. With a standard (large average surplus) calibration, we can have a small marginal surplus, and thus a strong response of hiring to productivity shocks, while obtaining a measured response of unemployment to changes in benefits.

In this paper we estimate a New-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NK DSGE) model with heterogeneity in price and wage setting behavior. In a recent study, Coibion and Gorodnichenko develop a DSGE model, in which firms follow four different types of price setting schemes: sticky prices, sticky information, rule-of-thumb, or flexible prices. We enrich Coibion and Gorodnichenko framework by incorporating heterogeneity in nominal wage setting behavior among households. We solve this DSGE model and estimate it using Bayesian techniques for the US economy from 1955 to 2008. The estimation results show the relevance of heterogeneity in wage setting among households. More importantly, we identify qualitative and quantitative business cycle features allowed by the heterogeneity in wage rigidity, such as the persistence in price and wage inflation, which a standard NK model with only Calvo-type wage rigidity fails to achieve. We also show that modeling wage-rigidity heterogeneity—as opposed to standard Calvo wages—amplifies the macroeconomic output fluctuations resulting from a technology shock while it mitigates the output fluctuations following a monetary tightening.

Time inconsistency is an essential feature of many policy problems. This paper presents and compares three methods for computing Markov-perfect optimal policies in stochastic nonlinear business cycle models. The methods considered include value function iteration, generalized Euler equations, and parameterized shadow prices. In the context of a business cycle model in which a fiscal authority chooses government spending and income taxation optimally, although lacking the ability to commit, we show that the solutions obtained using value function iteration and generalized Euler equations are somewhat more accurate than that obtained using parameterized shadow prices. Among these three methods, we show that value function iteration can be applied easily, even to environments that include a risk-sensitive fiscal authority and/or inequality constraints on government spending. We show that the risk-sensitive fiscal authority lowers government spending and income taxation, reducing the disincentive to accumulate wealth that households face.

This paper argues that foreign direct investment (FDI) may increase the vulnerability to capital flow shocks of economies with credit market imperfections. Because of worse access to financial markets, wages in domestic firms carry higher default risk than wages in foreign ones. This alters the domestic wage composition and the subsequent wealth distribution. When credit markets are imperfect, the wealth distribution typically determines an economy's growth potential in autarky; hence, high exposure to FDI may significantly impede the capability to recover from sudden withdrawals of foreign capital. This appears consistent with a first glance at empirical evidence on durations of output recovery after systemic sudden stops.

Using a disaggregated Marshallian macroeconomic model, this paper investigates how the adoption of a set of “free market reforms” may affect the economic growth rate of South Africa. Our findings suggest that the institution of the proposed policy reforms would yield substantial growth in aggregate annual real GDP. The resulting annual GDP growth rate could range from 5.3% to 9.8%, depending on which variant of the reform policies was implemented.

This paper examines the long-run relationship between trade openness and government size in a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model. We analytically show that different factor intensities in the production of tradable and nontradable sectors affect the government's response to changes in trade openness. Specifically, if the production of the nontradable sector is more capital-intensive, a positive relationship between trade openness and government size will be observed. In contrast, if the production of the tradable sector is more capital-intensive, a negative correlation between trade openness and government size will arise. This theoretical prediction is robust to both utility-enhancing and productive government expenditures. The differentiated factor intensities therefore provide a potential explanation to the mixed empirical findings in the literature about the long-run relation of trade openness and government size.

We present a stylized model that illustrates how interbank trading can reduce the sensitivity of lending to entrepreneurs' net worth, thus affecting the transmission mechanism of monetary policy through the credit channel. We build a model-consistent measure of interconnectedness and document that, in the United States, this measure has increased substantially during the period 1952–2016. Finally, interacting the measure of interconnectedness in a structural vector autoregression and a factor-augmented vector autoregression for the US economy, we find that the impulse responses of several real and financial variables to monetary policy shocks are dampened as interconnectedness increases. We confirm the same result using data from 10 Euro area countries for the period 1999–2016.

This paper analyzes aggregate wealth based on separable risk aversion and intertemporal substitution. In an infinite-period overlapping-generations model with survival uncertainty, economic growth, and permanent and temporary income shocks, our closed-form solution permits us to derive rich behavioral conclusions and to assess the relative importance of the major components of aggregate wealth. In particular, the separation of the attitudes toward risk and substitution allows us to disentangle behaviors relating to the intertemporal substitution motive from behaviors relating to the precautionary motive.

Exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into prices and into income loss are shown to be enough to calculate ERPT into welfare loss using implications of a simple model. These ERPT measures are estimated at the good level using a unique micro-price data set from Turkey, and they are combined with income-group-specific expenditure shares at the good level to obtain aggregate-level ERPT measures for alternative income groups. An exchange rate shock resulting in a real depreciation of 1% is shown to decrease welfare by about 0.80% for the average-income consumer, while this estimate ranges between 0.73% and 0.83% for consumers in the lowest- and highest-income quintiles, respectively, suggesting evidence for redistributive effects of an exchange rate shock. Using micro prices has further resulted in showing that traded, nondurable, flexible-price, or income-elastic goods contribute more to ERPT into welfare loss for the average-income consumer, suggesting important policy implications for filtering out the noise in the measurement of aggregate-level prices.