Using a global climate model coupled with an ocean and a sea-ice model, we compare the effects of doubling CO2 and halving CO2 on sea-ice cover and connections with the atmosphere and ocean. An overall warming in the 2 × CO2 experiment causes reduction of sea-ice extent by 15%, with maximum decrease in summer and autumn, consistent with observed seasonal sea-ice changes. The intensification of the Northern Hemisphere circulation is reflected in the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), associated with higher-than-normal surface pressure south of about 50° N and lower-than-normal surface pressure over the high northern latitudes. Strengthening the polar cell causes enhancement of westerlies around the Arctic perimeter during winter. Cooling, in the 0.5 × CO2 experiment, leads to thicker and more extensive sea ice. In the Southern Hemisphere, the increase in ice-covered area (28%) dominates the ice-thickness increase (5%) due to open ocean to the north. In the Northern Hemisphere, sea-ice cover increases by only 8% due to the enclosed land/sea configuration, but sea ice becomes much thicker (108%). Substantial weakening of the polar cell due to increase in sea-level pressure over polar latitudes leads to a negative trend of the winter AO index. The model reproduces large year-to-year variability under both cooling and warming conditions.

Despite their relatively small total ice volume, mid-latitude valley glaciers are expected to make a significant contribution to global sea-level rise over the next century due to the sensitivity of their mass-balance systems to small changes in climate. Here we use a degree-day model to reconstruct the past century of mass-balance variation at ‘Ka Roimata o Hine Hukatere’ Franz Josef Glacier, New Zealand, and to predict how mass balance may change over the next century. Analysis of the relationship between temperature, precipitation and mass balance indicates that temperature is a stronger control than precipitation on the mass balance of Franz Josef Glacier. The glacier’s mass balance, relative to its 1986 geometry, has decreased at a mean annual rate of 0.02m a–1 w.e. between 1894 and 2005. We compare this reduction to observations of terminus advance and retreat, of which Franz Josef Glacier has the best record in the Southern Hemisphere. For the years 2000–05 the relative mass balance ranged from –0.75 to +1.50m a–1 w.e., with 2000/01 the only year showing a negative mass balance. In a regionally downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change mean warming scenario, the annual relative mass balance will continue to decrease at 0.02m a–1 w.e. through the next century.

Cerro Charquini, Bolivia (Cordillera Real, 5392 ma.s.l.) was selected as a site to reconstruct glacier recession since the maximum of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in the central Andes. Five glaciers, located on differently exposed slopes, present comprehensive and well-preserved morainic systems attributed to former centuries. The moraines were dated by lichenometry and show a consistent organization on the different slopes. The past geometry of the glaciers was reconstructed using ground topography and aerophotogrammetry. Lichenometric dating shows that the LIA maximum occurred in the second half of the 17th century, after which the glaciers have receded nearly continuously. Over the last decades of the 20th century (1983–97), recession rates increased by a factor of four. On the northern and western slopes, glaciers receded more than on the southern and eastern slopes (by 78% and 65% of their LIA maximum area, respectively). The mean equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) rose by about 160 m between the LIA maximum and 1997. Recession rates were analysed in terms of climatic signal, suggesting that glacier recession since the LIA maximum was mainly due to a change in precipitation and that the 19th century may have been drier. For the 20th century, a temperature rise of about 0.6°C appears to be the main cause of glacier recession. Recent climatic conditions from 1983 to 1997 correspond to a mass deficit of about 1.36m w.e.a–1. If such conditions persist, the small glaciers below 5300ma.s.l. in the Cordillera Real should disappear completely in the near future.

The roughness of the snow-free surface of the glacier midre Lovénbreen, Svalbard, has been investigated on scales between 1 mm and 300 m. It is shown that the roughness is reasonably well described by scale-free (fractal) models for scales longer than a few metres and shorter than about 100 mm. However, there is a break in the behaviour between these scales which can be characterized by a definite scale length of 70–500 mm and a root-mean-square height variation between around 6 and 70 mm. The aerodynamic roughness length contributed by these features is estimated to be 0.3–1.5 mm. Features on this scale are consistent with the observed microwave backscattering properties of the glacier.

The development of land-fast sea ice and overlying snow was monitored during a 4 week period, until the snow cover had completely disappeared, at a site in the Gulf of Bothnia, Baltic Sea (63.57ú N, 19.85° E). The meteorological and radiative boundary conditions were continuously recorded. During the observation period, a 15 cm thick snow layer on the ice was transformed into a 7 cm thick granular ice layer (superimposed ice) on the ice surface, contributing significantly (about 11%) to the total ice thickness. Approximately 1 cm w.e. of the snow was sublimated. Neither snow-ice formation nor basal ice growth was significant during the same period. The salinity and isotopic (δ18O) composition of the ice indicated that prior to the experiment a 7 cm layer of superimposed ice had already formed. Hence, superimposed ice layers contributed 22% of the total ice thickness by the time all snow had disappeared. The advancing spring, decrease in surface albedo, diurnal cycle in the incoming solar radiation, and synoptic-scale changes in the cloud cover and the air–ice turbulent heat fluxes caused variations in the heat budget of the snowpack. Superimposed ice formation due to refreezing of meltwater occurred during most nights of the study period, and the most important refreezing periods were under such synoptic conditions that the air and snow surface temperatures also remained below zero during daytime. In contrast to typical summer conditions in polar oceans, low snow surface temperatures acted as the primary heat sink for the refreezing of meltwater.

Crystal-orientation fabric (COF) has a large influence on ice-sheet flow. Earlier radar studies have shown that COF-based birefringence occurs within ice sheets. Radio-wave scattering in polar ice results from changing physical properties of permittivity and conductivity that arise from differing values of density, acidity and COF. We present an improved mathematical model that can handle all these phenomena together. We use this matrix-based model to study the two-way propagation of depolarized radio waves that scatter at both isotropic and anisotropic boundaries. Based on numerical simulations, we demonstrate how COF affects the radar signals in terms of radar polarization and frequency. We then compare the simulated features with VHF radar data obtained at two contrasting inland sites in East Antarctica, where COF is known from ice-core studies. These two sites are Dome Fuji, located near a dome summit, and Mizuho, located in a converging ice-flow region. Data at Dome Fuji are dominated by typical features resulting from birefringence. In contrast, both birefringence and anisotropic scattering affect the radar data at Mizuho. We argue that radar methods can be used to determine principal axes and strength of birefringence in the ice sheets.

The specific surface area (SSA) is considered an essential microstructural parameter for the characterization of snow. Photography in the near-infrared (NIR) spectrum is sensitive to the SSA. We calculated the snow reflectance from calibrated NIR images of snow-pit walls and measured the SSA of samples obtained at the same locations. This new method is used to map the snow stratigraphy. The correlation between reflectance and SSA was found to be 90%. Calibrated NIR photography allows quantitative determination of SSA and its spatial variation in a snow profile in two dimensions within an uncertainty of 15%. In an image covering 0.5–1.0 m2, even layers of 1mm thickness can be documented and measured. Spatial maps of SSA are an important tool in initializing and validating physical and chemical models of the snowpack.

The problem of describing ice dynamics has been faced by many researchers; in this paper a fully three-dimensional model for ice dynamics is presented and tested. Using an approach followed by other researchers, ice is considered a non-linear incompressible viscous fluid so that a fluid-dynamic approach can be used. The model is based on the full three-dimensional Stokes equations for the description of pressure and velocity fields, on the Saint-Venant equation for the description of the free-surface time evolution and on a constitutive law derived from Glen’s law for the description of ice viscosity. The model computes the complete pressure field by considering both the hydrostatic and hydrodynamic pressure components; it is time-evolutive and uses high-order numerical approximation for equations and boundary conditions. Moreover it can deal with both constant and variable viscosity. Three theoretical tests and two applications to Priestley Glacier, Antarctica, are presented in order to evaluate the performance of the model and to investigate important phenomena of ice dynamics such as the influence of viscosity on pressure and velocity fields, basal sliding and flow over perturbed bedrocks. All these applications demonstrate the importance of treating the complete pressure and stress fields.

Numerical model studies describing the dynamics of ice sheets are usually aimed at cold- ice regions of mainland Antarctica. Contrary to these ice bodies with temperatures well below the pressure-melting point at the ice surface, the ice caps on sub-Antarctic islands, such as King George Island, can be considered as polythermal or even temperate. This implies that they may contain nonnegligible amounts of water percolating through the ice matrix. We present three different modifications to a three-dimensional, thermomechanically coupled, higher-order model previously applied to cold-ice regions. We discuss the effect of these modifications on the ice dynamics obtained for diagnostic model runs. The modifications comprise changes to the enhancement factor in Glen’s flow law, the choice of negligible or non-negligible water content and the choice of a threshold altitude below which the ice surface is set to pressure-melting point conditions. All modifications lead to non-linear changes in the resulting horizontal flow velocities. The changes in velocity amplitudes obtained with these modifications compared to simulations without any modification range between 64% and ~400%. This implies that they should be considered in time-dependent simulations of temperate-ice dynamics.

Brittle structures exposed in the ablation area of Pasterzenkees, Austria, were interpreted using aerial photographs and maps covering a period of 100 years. The most common structural features observed in aerial photographs are: (1) normal faults, which are particularly well developed along the lateral margins of the glacier and at the terminus; (2) large-scale tension gashes and Riedel shears that develop along the northeastern lateral margin of the glacier and between ice-flow units; (3) thrust faults, which develop at the terminus and cross-cut the full width of the glacier; and (4) band ogives. Longitudinal and transverse topographic profiles are available for the period covered in this study, and ice-flow velocity data are available from 1927. These data provide a means for interpreting the variations of observed structures in terms of ice-flow velocity. Thrust faults predominantly develop during periods of glacier retreat, when the glacier snout becomes an obstacle. Normal faults typically develop in areas of high glacier surface relief and are interpreted as gravity collapse structures. The orientation of sub-vertical, wide open crevasses along the lateral margin of Pasterzenkees varied. These variations are interpreted as reflecting changes of the flow regime and indicate a transition from simple shearing to transtension during a period of ice-flow deceleration.

The fabric of polycrystalline ice is typically described using the c-axis orientation alone, but this is insufficient for a full description of grain orientations in this hexagonal material. Electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) provides full c- and a-axis orientation of individual grains, and is used here to study Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) ice specimens from depths of 1551, 1642 and 1745 m. Complete orientation data are used to compare nearest-neighbor relationships to overall fabric and to differentiate between recrystallization mechanisms. Changes in orientation between grains and subgrains in GISP2 specimens were correlated with the appearance of grain boundaries on thin sections and used to identify grain sets that were probably produced by polygonization. Comparison of grain misorientations that take into account both c- and a-axis differences with those derived from c-axis directions alone reveals the presence of polygonization and illustrates the usefulness of this technique.

Rock tunnels beneath Engabreen, northern Norway, permit access to the ice-bedrock interface beneath a 210 m thick glacier. Eight load cells have been installed in the bedrock of the glacier sole along a 22 m transect. With some interruptions, the load cells have been logged at 15 min intervals since December 1992; here we analyse the records until 2003. Load-cell signals measure stresses acting normal to the bedrock, and usually log the pressure of the thin water film between the basal ice and the bed. Occasionally there are distinct pressure events, characterized by short-lived (hours) local minima, often followed by a maximum before decaying to background load-cell pressure. The amplitudes of these pressure events are of the order of 0.01–1 MPa and depend on the placement of the sensor and the state of the subglacial drainage system. We identify winter and summer pressure regimes. The winter regime is characterized by few pressure events of large pressure amplitude influencing all load cells. A lag of 0–6 days is observed between surface forcing (rain) and pressure events during winter. The summer regime typically has periods of daily pressure events of low amplitude. No delay is seen between surface forcing and pressure events during the summer regime. In summer, the onset of a pressure event is correlated with a local maximum of the derivative of the subglacial discharge record, whereas no such relation is found during the winter regime. The transition from winter to summer (May/June) is easily detectable and is strongly correlated with a rapid increase in subglacial discharge and the transition to a dominating R-channel system. The autumn transition is less clearly defined, but has usually occurred by the beginning of November. Stress bridging, an increase in bed pressure at the edge of low-pressure channels, is recorded during the summer regime. Water pressures at the bed are connected or unconnected to the drainage system. Pressure increases in the connected system, beyond local normal stress values, lead to an uplift of the connected system and a pressure drop in the unconnected system. The occurrence of pressure events is determined by the capacity of the drainage system. Uplift is controlled by local normal stress values and not mean ice-overburden pressure.

A widely used method for investigating palaeotemperatures is to analyze local proxy records (e.g. ice cores or deep-sea sediment cores). The interpretation of these records is often not straightforward, and global or hemispheric means cannot be deduced from local estimates because of large spatial variability. Using a different approach, temperature changes over the last glacial cycle can be estimated from sea-level observations by applying an inverse method to an ice-sheet model. In order to understand the underlying physical mechanisms, we used a 1-D ice-sheet model and a 3-D coupled thermodynamic ice-sheet–ice-shelf–bedrock model to investigate the importance of several physical processes for the inverse temperature reconstructions. Results show that (i) temperature reconstructions are sensitive to the employed formulation of mass balance, (ii) excluding thermodynamics in the ice sheet leads to a smaller temperature amplitude in the reconstruction and (iii) hysteresis in the non-linear relation between sea level and temperature occurs as a consequence of ice redistribution in the process of merging and separation of ice sheets. The ice redistribution does not occur if the geometry does not support the formation of a relatively flat dome, which tends to be preserved in warming conditions.

Observations of surface motion and ice deformation from 2002–03 were used to infer mean stress fields in a cross-section of Black Rapids Glacier, Alaska, USA, over seasonal timescales. Basal shear stresses in a well-defined zone north of the center line (orographic left) were approximately 7% and 16% lower in spring and summer, respectively, than in winter. Correspondingly higher stresses were found near the margins. These changes in the basal shear stress distribution were sufficiently large to cause mean surface velocities to be 1.2 and 1.5 times larger in spring and summer than in winter. These results were inferred with a simple inverse finite-element flow model that can successfully reproduce bulk surface velocities and tiltmeter data. Stress redistribution between the well-defined zone and the margins may also occur over much shorter time periods as a result of rapidly changing basal conditions (ice–bed decoupling or enhanced till deformation), thereby causing large variations in surface velocity and strongly influencing the glacier’s net motion during summer.

Reorientation of individual crystal glide planes, as isotropic surface ice is deformed during its passage to depth in an ice sheet, creates a fabric and associated anisotropy. We adopt an evolving orthotropic viscous law which was developed to reflect the induced anisotropy arising from the mean rotation of crystal axes during deformation. This expresses the deviatoric stress in terms of the strain rate, strain and three structure tensors based on the principal stretch axes, and involves one fabric response function which determines the strength of the anisotropy. The initial isotropic response enters as a multiplying factor depending on a strain-rate invariant and incorporating a temperature-dependent rate factor. The fabric response function has been constructed by correlations with complete (idealized) uniaxial compression and shearing responses for both ‘cold’ and ‘warm’ ice. The possible effects of such fabric evolution are now illustrated by determining steady radially symmetric flow solutions for an ice sheet with a prescribed temperature distribution and subject to an elevation-dependent surface accumulation/ablation distribution, zero basal melting and a prescribed basal sliding law. Comparisons are made with solutions for the conventional isotropic viscous law, for a flat bed, for a bed with a single modest slope hump and for a bed with a single modest slope hollow, for both cold and warm ice.

A fundamental problem in avalanche science is understanding the interaction between frictional processes taking place at the basal running surface and dissipative mechanisms within the avalanche body. In this paper, we address this question by studying how kinetic energy is dissipated into heat in snow avalanches. In doing so we consider the effect of random granular fluctuations and collisions in depth-averaged snow avalanche models. We show that relationships between the size of the granular fluctuations and the energy dissipated by granular collisions can be obtained by studying the energy input required to maintain steady-state flows. The energy input for granular fluctuations comes from mechanisms operating in the basal layer. The kinetic energy of the flow at the basal layer is converted to granular agitation energy, a random kinetic energy, which in turn is dissipated as heat by both viscous shearing and inelastic collisions at higher levels in the avalanche profile. Thus granular fluctuations play a crucial role in understanding the total dissipation process. We apply our theoretical considerations to develop a constitutive model for dense snow avalanches and are able to accurately model steady-state velocity profiles of both snow-chute experiments and field measurements.