Basal motion is the primary mechanism for ice flux in Greenland, yet a widely applicable model for predicting it remains elusive. This is due to the difficulty in both observing small-scale bed properties and predicting a time-varying water pressure on which basal motion putatively depends. We take a Bayesian approach to these problems by coupling models of ice dynamics and subglacial hydrology and conditioning on observations of surface velocity in southwestern Greenland to infer the posterior probability distributions for eight spatially and temporally constant parameters governing the behavior of both the sliding law and hydrologic model. Because the model is computationally expensive, characterization of these distributions using classical Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling is intractable. We skirt this issue by training a neural network as a surrogate that approximates the model at a sliver of the computational cost. We find that surface velocity observations establish strong constraints on model parameters relative to a prior distribution and also elucidate correlations, while the model explains 60% of observed variance. However, we also find that several distinct configurations of the hydrologic system and stress regime are consistent with observations, underscoring the need for continued data collection and model development.

Variations in glacier meltwater in the source regions of the Tibetan Plateau's (TP) largest lake (Selin Co) and China's longest river (Yangtze River) regulate the local and downstream water balance under the warming climate. However, the magnitude of their variations over the past four decades is still unknown. Here, we examine long-term changes in glacier mass balance over 1976–2017 using KH-9 and CoSSC-TanDEM-X data. We find that the mean rate of glacier mass loss (GML) has accelerated from −0.21 ± 0.11 m a–1 over 1976–2000, to −0.28 ± 0.14 m a–1 over 2000–11, and subsequently to −0.48 ± 0.10 m a–1 over 2011–17. Changes in temperature and precipitation are the major causes of GML. Over 1976–2017, the contribution of decadal GML to Tuotuohe sub-basin runoff ranges from 4.3 to 8.0%, while its contribution to increased lake volume change in Selin Co and Chibzhang Co-Dorsoidong Co ranges from 3.5 to 16.3% and 19.2 to 21.4%, respectively. The GML of source regions made relatively small contributions to river runoff and lake supply, but plays a vital role when precipitation decreases. The quantitative evaluation of the water balance for the sources of great rivers and lakes over the TP is therefore important for water resource management and hydrological cycle studies.

Despite a number of studies reporting glacier extent changes and their response to climate change over the eastern Tien Shan, glacier mass-balance changes over multiple decades are still not well reconstructed. Here, glacier mass budgets on the Karlik Range, easternmost Tien Shan during the time spans of 1972–2000 and 2000–2015 are quantified using digital elevation models reconstructed from topographic maps, SRTM X-band radar data and ASTER images. The results exhibit significant glacier mass loss in the Karlik Range for the two time spans, with a mean mass loss of −0.19 ± 0.08 m w.e. a−1 for the 1972–2000 period and −0.45 ± 0.17 m w.e. a−1 for the 2000–2015 period. The doubling of mass loss over the latter period suggests an acceleration of glacier mass loss in the early 21st century. The accelerated mass loss is associated with regional warming whereas the decline in annual precipitation is not significant.

We report detailed chemical and isotopic data from a subglacial siliceous deposit on andesitic bedrock recently exposed by glacier retreat. Whereas a single, <1 μm, Si-rich layer covers the highly polished bedrock on the up-glacier (stoss) surfaces, distinct, lithified deposits commonly occur at the lee of small bedrock protuberances, on a scale <0.1 meter. The deposit is millimeters in thickness and consists of laminae tens to hundreds microns thick that differ from one another in color, rock-fragment abundance and chemical composition. Ca-rich laminae that are sufficiently enriched in uranium (~2–50 ppm) to permit U-series isotopic analysis suggest that the subglacial deposit formed 10–20 ka, much earlier than previously assumed. We conclude that (1) the siliceous deposit persisted for at least 10 000 years despite the intervening erosion and weathering, (2) distinct episodes of formation due to significant changes in hydrology and water chemistry are recorded in the deposit, and (3) a siliceous slurry may have existed at the ice-rock interface and influenced the local friction. This work reinforces earlier findings that subglacial chemical deposits can form and persist on geologic time scales and may have implications for the role of the cryosphere in the Earth's geochemical cycles and climate system.

We use seismic refraction data to investigate the firn structure across a suture zone on the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, and the possible role of glacier dynamics in firn evolution. In the downstream direction, the data reveal decreasing compressional-wave velocities and increasing penetration depth of the propagating wave in the firn layer, consistent with $\sim$1 m firn thickening every 6 km. The boundary between the Lambert Glacier unit to the west and a major suture zone and the Mawson Escarpment Ice Stream unit to the east, is marked by differences in firn thicknesses, compressional-wave velocities and seismic anisotropy in the across-flow direction. The latter does not contradict the presence of a single-maximum crystal orientation fabric oriented 45–$90^{\circ }$ away from the flow direction. This is consistent with the presence of transverse simple shear governing the region's underlying ice flow regime, in association with elevated strain along the suture zone. The confirmation and quantification of the implied dynamic coupling between firn and the underlying ice requires integration of future seismic refraction, coring and modelling studies. Because firn is estimated to cover $\sim$98% of the Antarctic continent any such coupling may have widespread relevance to ice-sheet evolution and flow.

Gaining knowledge of tidewater glacier (TWG) margin evolution, solid ice flux and their responses to climate over large spatio-temporal scales provides valuable context for the projection of future Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) change. Although studies of sector-wide responses of TWGs exist, studies at an ice-sheet-wide scale have only just become feasible. Here, we present a dataset of 224 annual TWG margins for 1984–2017 (n = 3801), showing that averaged over regional scales, normalised terminus change is linear. Regionally linear retreat trends were identified across most sectors of the GrIS starting in the mid-1990s, although in contrast to previous studies, the northeastern sector is shown to have experienced sustained retreat since the mid-1980s. Through cointegration analyses, individual glaciers are shown to have differing sensitivities to potential climate drivers, though on a sector-wide scale the northwest and southeast are shown to be especially sensitive to annual sea surface temperature and June–July–August air temperature, respectively. Although 92% of the analysed glaciers experience retreat across the GrIS, observed increases in absolute flux for the entire ice sheet can be explained by changes in just 11 of these TWGs.

The only complete inventory of New Zealand glaciers was based on aerial photography starting in 1978. While there have been partial updates using 2002 and 2009 satellite data, most glaciers are still represented by the 1978 outlines in contemporary global glacier databases. The objective of this project is to establish an updated glacier inventory for New Zealand. We have used Landsat 8 OLI satellite imagery from February and March 2016 for delineating clean glaciers using a semi-automatic band ratio method and debris-covered glaciers using a maximum likelihood classification. The outlines have been checked against Sentinel-2 MSI data, which have a higher resolution. Manual post processing was necessary due to misclassifications (e.g. lakes, clouds), mapping in shadowed areas, and combining the clean and debris-covered parts into single glaciers. New Zealand glaciers cover an area of 794 ± 34 km2 in 2016 with a debris-covered area of 10%. Of the 2918 glaciers, seven glaciers are >10 km2 while 71% is <0.1 km2. The debris cover on those largest glaciers is >40%. Only 15 glaciers are located on the North Island. For a selection of glaciers, we were able to calculate the area reduction between the 1978 and 2016 inventories.

Supraglacial lakes and rivers dominate the storage and transport of meltwater on the southwest Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface. Despite functioning as interconnected hydrologic networks, supraglacial lakes and rivers are commonly studied as independent features, resulting in an incomplete understanding of their collective impact on meltwater storage and routing. We use Landsat 8 satellite imagery to assess the seasonal evolution of supraglacial lakes and rivers on the southwest GrIS during the 2015 melt season. Remotely sensed meltwater areas and volumes are compared with surface runoff simulations from three climate models (MERRA-2, MAR 3.6 and RACMO 2.3), and with in situ observations of proglacial discharge in the Watson River. We find: (1) at elevations >1600 m, 21% of supraglacial lakes and 28% of supraglacial rivers drain into moulins, signifying the presence of high-elevation surface-to-bed meltwater connections even during a colder-than-average melt season; (2) while supraglacial lakes dominate instantaneous surface meltwater storage, supraglacial rivers dominate total surface meltwater area and discharge; (3) the combined surface area of supraglacial lakes and rivers is strongly correlated with modeled surface runoff; and (4) of the three models examined here, MERRA-2 runoff yields the highest overall correlation with observed proglacial discharge in the Watson River.

Measurements of elastic wave velocities enable non-destructive estimation of the mechanical properties, elastic moduli and density of snow and firn. The variation of elastic moduli with porosity in dry snow and firn is modeled using a differential effective medium scheme modified to account for the critical porosity above which the bulk and shear moduli of the ice frame vanish. A comparison of predicted and measured elastic moduli indicates that the shear modulus of ice in snow is lower than that computed from single crystal elastic stiffnesses of ice. This may indicate that the bonds between snow particles are more deformable under shear than under compression. A partial alignment of ice crystals also may contribute. Good agreement between elastic stiffnesses of the ice frame obtained from elastic wave velocity measurements and the predictions of the theory is observed. The approach is simple and compact, and does not require the use of empirical fits to the data. Owing to its simplicity, this model may prove useful in a variety of potential applications such as construction on snow, interpretation of seismic measurements to monitor and locate avalanches and estimation of density within compacting snow deposited on glaciers and ice sheets.

The recently-advancing Taku Glacier is excavating subglacial sediments at high rates over multi-decadal timescales. However, sediment redistribution over shorter timescales remains unquantified. We use a variety of methods to study subglacial and proglacial sediment redistribution on decadal, seasonal, and daily timescales to gain insight into sub- and proglacial landscape formation. Both excavation and deposition were observed from 2003 to 2015 (2.8 ± 0.9 m a−1 to +2.9 ± 0.9 m a−1). The observed patterns imply that a subglacial conduit has occupied the same site over the past decade. Outwash fans on the subaerial end moraine experience fluvial sediment reworking almost year-round, with net sediment gain in winter and net sediment loss in summer, and an overall mass gain between 2005 and 2015. We estimate that tens of meters of sediment still underlie the glacier terminus, sediments which can be remobilized during future activity. However, imminent retreat from the proglacial moraine will limit its sediment supply, leaving the moraine vulnerable to erosion by bordering rivers. Retreat into an over-deepened basin will leave the glacier vulnerable to increased frontal ablation and accelerating retreat.

Proglacial braided river systems discharge large volumes of meltwater from ice sheets and transport coarse-grained sediments from the glaciated areas to the oceans. Here, we test the hypothesis if high-energy hydrological events can leave distinctive signatures in the sedimentary record of braided river systems. We characterize the morphology and infer a mode of formation of a 25 km long and 1–3 km wide Early Pleistocene incised valley recently imaged in 3-D seismic data in the Hoop area, SW Barents Sea. The fluvial system, named Bjørnelva River Valley, carved 20 m deep channels into Lower Cretaceous bedrock at a glacial paleo-surface and deposited 28 channel bars along a paleo-slope gradient of ~0.64 m km−1. The landform morphologies and position relative to the paleo-surface support that Bjørnelva River Valley was formed in the proglacial domain of the Barents Sea Ice Sheet. Based on valley width and valley depth, we suggest that Bjørnelva River Valley represents a braided river system fed by violent outburst floods from a glacial lake, with estimated outburst discharges of ~160 000 m3 s−1. The morphological configuration of Bjørnelva River Valley can inform geohazard assessments in areas at risk of outburst flooding today and is an analogue for landscapes evolving in areas currently covered by the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

Surface melting on Amery Ice Shelf (AIS), East Antarctica, produces an extensive supraglacial drainage system consisting of hundreds of lakes connected by surface channels. This drainage system forms most summers on the southern portion of AIS, transporting meltwater large distances northward, toward the ice front and terminating in lakes. Here we use satellite imagery, Landsat (1, 4 and 8), MODIS multispectral and Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar to examine the seasonal and interannual evolution of the drainage system over nearly five decades (1972–2019). We estimate seasonal meltwater input to one lake by integrating output from the regional climate model [Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO 2.3p2)] over its catchment defined using the Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica. We find only weak positive relationships between modeled seasonal meltwater input and lake area and between meltwater input and lake volume. Consecutive years of extensive melting lead to year-on-year expansion of the drainage system, potentially through a link between melt production, refreezing in firn and the maximum extent of the lakes at the downstream termini of drainage. These mechanisms are important when evaluating the potential of drainage systems to grow in response to increased melting, delivering meltwater to areas of ice shelves vulnerable to hydrofracture.

Iceberg calving strongly controls glacier mass loss, but the fracture processes leading to iceberg formation are poorly understood due to the stochastic nature of calving. The size distributions of icebergs produced during the calving process can yield information on the processes driving calving and also affect the timing, magnitude, and spatial distribution of ocean fresh water fluxes near glaciers and ice sheets. In this study, we apply fragmentation theory to describe key calving behaviours, based on observational and modelling data from Greenland and Antarctica. In both regions, iceberg calving is dominated by elastic-brittle fracture processes, where distributions contain both exponential and power law components describing large-scale uncorrelated fracture and correlated branching fracture, respectively. Other size distributions can also be observed. For Antarctic icebergs, distributions change from elastic-brittle type during ‘stable’ calving to one dominated by grinding or crushing during ice shelf disintegration events. In Greenland, we find that iceberg fragment size distributions evolve from an initial elastic-brittle type distribution near the calving front, into a steeper grinding/crushing-type power law along-fjord. These results provide an entirely new framework for understanding controls on iceberg calving and how calving may react to climate forcing.

Our understanding of the subglacial drainage system has improved markedly over the last decades due to field observations and numerical modelling. However, integrating data into increasingly complex numerical models remain challenging. Here we infer two-dimensional subglacial channel networks and hydraulic parameters for Gorner Glacier, Switzerland, based on available field data at five specific times (snapshots) across the melt season of 2005. The field dataset is one of the most complete available, including borehole water pressure, tracer experiments and meteorological variables. Yet, these observations are still too sparse to fully characterize the drainage system and thus, a unique solution is neither expected nor desirable. We use a geostatistical generator and a steady-state water flow model to produce a set of subglacial channel networks that are consistent with measured water pressure and tracer-transit times. Field data are used to infer hydraulic and morphological parameters of the channels under the assumption that the location of channels persists during the melt season. Results indicate that it is possible to identify locations where subglacial channels are more likely. In addition, we show that different network structures can equally satisfy the field data, which support the use of a stochastic approach to infer unobserved subglacial features.

Up to 30% of the current tidewater mass loss in Svalbard corresponds to frontal ablation through submarine melting and calving. We developed two-dimensional (2-D) glacier–line–plume and glacier–fjord circulation coupled models, both including subglacial discharge, submarine melting and iceberg calving, to simulate Hansbreen–Hansbukta system, SW Svalbard. We ran both models for 20 weeks, throughout April–August 2010, using different scenarios of subglacial discharge and crevasse water depth. Both models showed large seasonal variations of submarine melting in response to transient fjord temperatures and subglacial discharges. Subglacial discharge intensity and crevasse water depth influenced calving rates. Using the best-fit configuration for both parameters our two coupled models predicted observed front positions reasonably well (±10 m). Although the two models showed different melt-undercutting front shapes, which affected the net-stress fields near the glacier front, no significant effects on the simulated glacier front positions were found. Cumulative calving (91 and 94 m) and submarine melting (108 and 118 m) along the simulated period showed in both models (glacier–plume and glacier–fjord) a 1:1.2 ratio of linear frontal ablation between the two mechanisms. Overall, both models performed well on predicting observed front positions when best-fit subglacial discharges were imposed, the glacier–plume model being 50 times computationally faster.

We present continuous estimates of snow and firn density, layer depth and accumulation from a multi-channel, multi-offset, ground-penetrating radar traverse. Our method uses the electromagnetic velocity, estimated from waveform travel-times measured at common-midpoints between sources and receivers. Previously, common-midpoint radar experiments on ice sheets have been limited to point observations. We completed radar velocity analysis in the upper ~2 m to estimate the surface and average snow density of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We parameterized the Herron and Langway (1980) firn density and age model using the radar-derived snow density, radar-derived surface mass balance (2015–2017) and reanalysis-derived temperature data. We applied structure-oriented filtering to the radar image along constant age horizons and increased the depth at which horizons could be reliably interpreted. We reconstructed the historical instantaneous surface mass balance, which we averaged into annual and multidecadal products along a 78 km traverse for the period 1984–2017. We found good agreement between our physically constrained parameterization and a firn core collected from the dry snow accumulation zone, and gained insights into the spatial correlation of surface snow density.

Close-range (CR) L-band radiometry and quasi-simultaneous in situ snow characterizations were conducted in May 2019 at the Swiss Camp research site in the ablation zone of the western Greenland ice sheet. Snow liquid-water and its melt/refreeze are retrieved from microwave antenna temperatures measured with the ground-based L-band radiometer ELBARA-III. The emission model (EM) used in the retrieval is a two-layer configuration of the ‘L-Band Specific Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpack’. Consistent snow wetness retrievals were achieved from both single- and multi-angle CR observations of L-band antenna temperatures. This suggests that multi-angle observation is not a pre-requisite for snow wetness retrieval. Therefore, in addition to soil moisture and ocean salinity (SMOS) multi-angle measurements, snow wetness can be estimated from spaceborne L-band brightness temperatures measured at a single observation angle, such as from NASA's SMAP satellite. Our results provide partial validation of a recently presented snow wetness retrieval approach based on the same EM and applied over Greenland using multi-angle SMOS brightness temperatures. Agreement between measured CR antenna temperatures and SMOS brightness temperatures is found to be within the 95% confidence intervals of ELBARA-III and SMOS measurement uncertainties. Our measurements confirm the modeled response of antenna temperatures to diurnal variations of snow wetness.

Englacial water transport is an integral part of the glacial hydrologic system, yet the geometry of englacial structures remains largely unknown. In this study, we explore the excitation of fluid resonance by small amplitude waves as a probe of englacial geometry. We model a hydraulic network consisting of one or more tabular cracks that intersect a cylindrical conduit, subject to oscillatory wave motion initiated at the water surface. Resulting resonant frequencies and quality factors are diagnostic of fluid properties and geometry of the englacial system. For a single crack–conduit system, the fundamental mode involves gravity-driven fluid sloshing between the conduit and the crack, at frequencies between 0.02 and 10 Hz for typical glacial parameters. Higher frequency modes include dispersive Krauklis waves generated within the crack and tube waves in the conduit. But we find that crack lengths are often well constrained by fundamental mode frequency and damping rate alone for settings that include alpine glaciers and ice sheets. Branching crack geometry and dip, ice thickness and source excitation function help define limits of crack detectability for this mode. In general, we suggest that identification of eigenmodes associated with wave motion in time series data may provide a pathway toward inferring englacial hydrologic structures.

The inaugural data from the first systematic program of sea-ice observations in Kotzebue Sound, Alaska, in 2018 coincided with the first winter in living memory when the Sound was not choked with ice. The following winter of 2018–19 was even warmer and characterized by even less ice. Here we discuss the mass balance of landfast ice near Kotzebue (Qikiqtaġruk) during these two anomalously warm winters. We use in situ observations and a 1-D thermodynamic model to address three research questions developed in partnership with an Indigenous Advisory Council. In doing so, we improve our understanding of connections between landfast ice mass balance, marine mammals and subsistence hunting. Specifically, we show: (i) ice growth stopped unusually early due to strong vertical ocean heat flux, which also likely contributed to early start to bearded seal hunting; (ii) unusually thin ice contributed to widespread surface flooding. The associated snow ice formation partly offset the reduced ice growth, but the flooding likely had a negative impact on ringed seal habitat; (iii) sea ice near Kotzebue during the winters of 2017–18 and 2018–19 was likely the thinnest since at least 1945, driven by a combination of warm air temperatures and a persistent ocean heat flux.

The TanDEM-X DEM is a valuable data source for estimating glacier mass balance. However, the accuracy of TanDEM-X elevation over glaciers can be affected by microwave penetration and phase decorrelation. To investigate the bias of TanDEM-X DEMs of glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau, these DEMs were subtracted from SPOT-6 DEMs obtained around the same time at two study sites. The average bias over the studied glacier areas in West Kunlun (175.0 km2) was 2.106 ± 0.012 m in April 2014, and it was 1.523 ± 0.011 m in Geladandong (228.8 km2) in October 2013. By combining backscatter coefficients and interferometric coherence maps, we found surface decorrelation and baseline decorrelation can cause obvious bias in addition to microwave penetration. If the optical/laser data and winter TanDEM-X data were used as new and historic elevation sources for mass-balance measurements over an arbitrary observation period of 10 years, the glacier mass loss rates in West Kunlun and Geladandong would be potentially underestimated by 0.218 ± 0.016 and 0.158 ± 0.011 m w.e. a−1, respectively. The impact is therefore significant, and users should carefully treat the bias of TanDEM-X DEMs when retrieving a geodetic glacier mass balance.