The British National Health Service (NHS) celebrates its 70th birthday on 5 July 2018. This paper examines this anniversary through the lens of previous anniversaries, exploring two strands of political debates and NHS documents. It draws on the basic ‘multiple streams model’ of Kingdon that argues that an issue reaches the agenda when the policy window opens to allow the coupling of three independent streams – policy, problem and politics. It is found that there appears to be some discontinuity in the problem stream; some periods of relative consensus and sharp political differences in the politics stream; and sharp variations over time in the policy stream. While it is clear that there have been both continuities and discontinuities in the problem, politics and policy streams over the past 70 years, they have rarely come together to result in a policy that has taken it off the agenda.

Models of household decision-making commonly focus on nuclear family members as primary decision-makers. If extended families shape the objectives and constraints of households, then neglecting the role of this network may lead to an incomplete understanding of health-seeking behaviour. Understanding the decision-making processes behind care-seeking may improve behaviour change interventions, better intervention targeting and support health-related development goals. This paper uses data from a cluster randomised trial of a participatory learning and action cycle (PLA) through women’s groups, to assess the role of extended family networks as a determinant of gains in health knowledge and health practice. We estimate three models along a continuum of health-seeking behaviour: one that explores access to PLA groups as a conduit of knowledge, another measuring whether women’s health knowledge improves after exposure to the PLA groups and a third exploring the determinants of their ability to act on knowledge gained. We find that, in this context, a larger network of family is not associated with women’s likelihood of attending groups or acquiring new knowledge, but a larger network of husband’s family is negatively associated with the ability to act on that knowledge during pregnancy and the postpartum period.

In January 2006, the Spanish government enacted a tobacco control law that banned smoking in bars and restaurants, with exceptions depending on the floor space of the premises. In January 2011, further legislation in this area was adopted, removing these exceptions. We analyse the effect produced on cigarette sales by these two bans. We approach this problem using an interrupted time series analysis while accounting for the potential effects of autocorrelation and seasonality. The data source used was the official data on legal sales of tobacco in Spain, from January 2000 to December 2015 (excluding the Canary Islands and the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla). As confounder variables, we use the log-transformed average prices for manufactured and hand-rolled cigarettes (or the average minimum excise tax as a proxy), and log-transformed real-household disposable income. The implementation of a total smoke-free ban in Spain was associated with an immediate reduction in cigarette sales between 9% to 11%. In contrast, in the period immediately following the partial ban, no such reduction was detected, beyond the trend already present. Our results indicate that, in Spain, partial bans on smoking in public places failed, and that only a total tobacco ban worked.

This article investigates the impact of Certificate of Need (CON) laws on competition in the inpatient care market. One of the major criticisms of these laws is that it may hinder competition in the health care market, which can lead to higher prices. However, from a theoretical standpoint, CON laws could also promote competition by limiting excessive expansion from incumbents. Our main conclusion is that CON laws by and large enhanced competition in the inpatient market during the period of our study. This indicates that the effects of CON laws to hinder predatory behavior could dominate its effects of preventing new entrants into the inpatient care market. We do not find statistically significant evidence to reject the exogeneity assumption of either CON laws or their stringency in our study. We also find factors such as proportion of population aged 18–44, proportion of Asian American population, obesity rate, political environment, etc., in a state significantly impact competition. Our findings could shed some light to public policy makers when deciding the appropriate health programs or legislative framework to promote health care market competition and thereby facilitate quality health care.

Inequalities in infant mortality rates (IMRs) are rising in some low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and decreasing in others, but the explanation for these divergent trends is unclear. We investigate whether government expenditures and redistribution are associated with reductions in inequalities in IMRs. We estimated country-level fixed-effects panel regressions for 48 LMICs (142 country observations). Slope and Relative Indices of Inequality in IMRs (SII and RII) were calculated from Demographic and Health Surveys between 1993 and 2013. RII and SII were regressed on government expenditure (total, health and non-health) and redistribution, controlling for gross domestic product (GDP), private health expenditures, a democracy indicator, country fixed effects and time. Mean SII and RII was 39.12 and 0.69, respectively. In multivariate models, a 1 percentage point increase in total government expenditure (% of GDP) was associated with a decrease in SII of −2.468 [95% confidence intervals (CIs): −4.190, −0.746] and RII of −0.026 (95% CIs: −0.048, −0.004). Lower inequalities were associated with higher non-health government expenditure, but not higher government health expenditure. Associations with inequalities were non-significant for GDP, government redistribution, and private health expenditure. Understanding how non-health government expenditure reduces inequalities in IMR, and why health expenditures may not, will accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals.

In Belgium and France, physicians can charge a supplementary fee on top of the tariff set by the mandatory basic health insurance scheme. In both countries, the supplementary fee system is under pressure because of financial sustainability concerns and a lack of added value for the patient. Expenditure on supplementary fees is increasing much faster than total health expenditure. So far, measures taken to curb this trend have not been successful. For certain categories of physicians, supplementary fees represent one-third of total income. For patients, however, the added value of supplementary fees is not that clear. Supplementary fees can buy comfort and access to physicians who refuse to treat patients who are not willing to pay supplementary fees. Perceived quality of care plays an important role in patients’ willingness to pay supplementary fees. Today, there is no evidence that physicians who charge supplementary fees provide better quality of care than physicians who do not. However, linking supplementary fees to objectively proven quality of care and limiting access to top quality care to patients able and willing to pay supplementary fees might not be socially acceptable in many countries. Our conclusion is that supplementary physicians’ fees are not sustainable.

The long-term care system in China relies heavily on informal care provided by family members. This study makes projections on the demand for informal care among Chinese older people between 2015 and 2035 and quantifies the level of long-term care resources needed to meet their needs. The data come from longitudinal information in a nationally representative sample, China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey 2011 and 2013. The macrosimulation approach (PSSRU model) and the Markov approach are integrated into one Bayesian modelling framework. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to capture parameter uncertainty. We project that the demand for informal care will increase from 41.3 million people (95% CI: 39.9–42.7) in 2015 to 82.6 million people (95% CI: 78.3–86.9) in 2035. The long-term care system faces unbalanced pressure of demand for informal care from different groups of older people. The projected demand is sensitive to changes in older people’s disability trajectory and the availability of formal care provided by the government, but less sensitive to an increase in singleton households in the future. We discuss possible policy measures to alleviate the mounting pressure on the demand for informal care.

There is little debate that the health workforce is a key component of the health care system. Since the training of doctors and nurses takes several years, and the building of new schools even longer, projections are needed to allow for the development of health workforce policies. Our work develops a projection model for the demand of doctors and nurses by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries in the year 2030. The model is based on a country’s demand for health services, which includes the following factors: per capita income, out-of-pocket health expenditures and the ageing of its population. The supply of doctors and nurses is projected using country-specific autoregressive integrated moving average models. Our work shows how dramatic imbalances in the number of doctors and nurses will be in OECD countries should current trends continue. For each country in the OECD with sufficient data, we report its demand, supply and shortage or surplus of doctors and nurses for 2030. We project a shortage of nearly 400,000 doctors across 32 OECD countries and shortage of nearly 2.5 million nurses across 23 OECD countries in 2030. We discuss the results and suggest policies that address the shortages.

In several OECD countries the percentage of elderly in long-term care institutions has been declining as a result of ageing-in-place. However, due to the rapid ageing of population in the next decades future demand for institutional care is likely to increase. In this paper we perform a scenario analysis to examine the potential impact of these two opposite trends on the demand for institutional elderly care in the Netherlands. We find that the demand for institutional care first declines as a result of the expected increase in the number of low-need elderly that age-in-place. This effect is strong at first but then peters out. After this first period the effect of the demographic trend takes over, resulting in an increase in demand for institutional care. We argue that the observed trends are likely to result in a growing mismatch between demand and supply of institutional care. Whereas the current stock of institutional care is primarily focussed on low-need (residential) care, future demand will increasingly consist of high-need (nursing home) care for people with cognitive as well as somatic disabilities. We discuss several policy options to reduce the expected mismatch between supply and demand for institutional care.

Models for projecting the demand for and supply of health care workers are generally based on objectives of meeting demands for health care and assumptions of status quo in all but the demographic characteristics of populations. These models fail to recognise that public intervention in health care systems arises from market failure in health care and the absence of an independent demand for health care. Hence projections of demand perpetuate inefficiencies in the form of overutilisation of services on the one hand and unmet needs for care on the other. In this paper the problems with basing workforce policy on projected demand are identified and the consequences for health care system sustainability explored. Integrated needs-based models are offered as alternative approaches that relate directly to the goals of publicly funded health care systems and represent an important element of promoting sustainability in those systems.

Although eliminating financial barriers to care is a necessary condition for improving access to health services, it is not sufficient. Given the contrasting health systems with regard to financing and organization of health insurance in the United States and Canada, there is a long history of comparing these countries. We extend the empirical studies on the Canadian and US health systems by comparing access to ambulatory care as measured by hospitalization rates for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) in Montreal and New York City. We find that, in New York, ACSC rates were more than twice as high (12.6 per 1000 population) as in Montreal (4.8 per 1000 population). After controlling for age, sex, and number of diagnoses, significant differences in ACSC rates are present in both cities, but are more pronounced in New York. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that universal, first-dollar health insurance coverage has contributed to lower ACSC rates in Montreal than New York. However, Montreal’s surprisingly low ACSC rate calls for further research.

There is a requirement for economic evaluation of health technologies seeking public funding across Europe. Changes to the organisation and delivery of health services, including changes to health policy, are not covered by such appraisals. These changes also have consequences for National Health Service (NHS) funds, yet undergo no mandatory cost-effectiveness assessment. The focus on health technologies may have occurred because larger-scale service changes pose more complex challenges to evaluators. This paper discusses the principal challenges faced when performing economic evaluations of changes to the organisation and delivery of health services and provides recommendations for overcoming them. The five principal challenges identified are as follows: undertaking ex-ante evaluation; evaluating impacts in terms of quality-adjusted life years; assessing costs and opportunity costs; accounting for spillover effects; and generalisability. Of these challenges, methods for estimating the impact on costs and quality-adjusted life years are those most in need of development. Methods are available for ex-ante evaluation, assessing opportunity costs and examining generalisability. However, these are rarely applied in practice. The general principles of assessing the cost-effectiveness of interventions should be applied to all NHS spending, not just that involving health technologies. Advancements in this area have the potential to improve the allocation of scarce NHS resources.