There are many instances in the statistical literature in which inference is based on a normalized quadratic form in a standard normal vector, normalized by the squared length of that vector. Examples include both test statistics (the Durbin–Watson statistic) and estimators (serial correlation coefficients). Although much studied, no general closed-form expression for the density function of such a statistic is known. This paper gives general formulae for the density in each open interval between the characteristic roots of the matrix involved. Results are given for the case of distinct roots, which need not be assumed positive, and when the roots occur with multiplicities greater than one. Starting from a representation of the density as a surface integral over an (n − 2)-dimensional hyperplane, the density is expressed in terms of top-order zonal polynomials involving difference quotients of the characteristic roots of the matrix in the numerator quadratic form.

We propose a new method for estimating additive nonparametric regression models based on taking the Lq median of a sample of kernel estimators. We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of our procedures. The rate of convergence depends on the value of q. For q > 3/2 one has the usual one-dimensional rate, but if q ≤ 3/2 the rate can be slower.

We develop asymptotic theory for linear statistics of sample autocorrelations of squared residuals from an ARCH(p) model. Our results are valid for most estimators used in practice and do not depend on the assumption of normality of the errors; the existence of the fourth moment is required. In several special cases, we identify the limit distributions as well-known functionals of a Brownian motion.

For a process with stationary first differences a necessary and sufficient condition for the variance of the process to be unbounded is given. An example shows that the variance of an integrated process—although unbounded—need not diverge to infinity. Sufficient conditions for the variance of an integrated process to diverge to infinity are provided.

Censored and truncated regression models with unknown distribution are important in econometrics. This paper characterizes the class of all conditional moment restrictions that lead to √n-consistent estimators for these models. The semiparametric efficiency bound for each conditional moment restriction is derived. In the case of a nonzero bound it is shown how an estimator can be constructed and that an appropriately weighted version can attain the efficiency bound. These estimators also work when the disturbance is independent of the regressors. The paper discusses combining conditional moment restrictions for more efficient estimation in this case.

We establish valid Edgeworth expansions for the distribution of smoothed nonparametric spectral estimates, and of studentized versions of linear statistics such as the sample mean, where the studentization employs such a nonparametric spectral estimate. Particular attention is paid to the spectral estimate at zero frequency and, correspondingly, the studentized sample mean, to reflect econometric interest in autocorrelation-consistent or long-run variance estimation. Our main focus is on stationary Gaussian series, though we discuss relaxation of the Gaussianity assumption. Only smoothness conditions on the spectral density that are local to the frequency of interest are imposed. We deduce empirical expansions from our Edgeworth expansions designed to improve on the normal approximation in practice and also deduce a feasible rule of bandwidth choice.

We consider semiparametric estimation of the memory parameter in a long memory stochastic volatility model. We study the estimator based on a log periodogram regression as originally proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983, Journal of Time Series Analysis 4, 221–238). Expressions for the asymptotic bias and variance of the estimator are obtained, and the asymptotic distribution is shown to be the same as that obtained in recent literature for a Gaussian long memory series. The theoretical result does not require omission of a block of frequencies near the origin. We show that this ability to use the lowest frequencies is particularly desirable in the context of the long memory stochastic volatility model.

There has been increasing interest recently in hypothesis testing with inequality restrictions. An important example in time series econometrics is hypotheses on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH). We propose a one-sided test for ARCH effects using a wavelet spectral density estimator at frequency zero of a squared regression residual series. The square of an ARCH process is positively correlated at all lags, resulting in a spectral mode at frequency zero. In particular, it has a spectral peak at frequency zero when ARCH effects are persistent or when ARCH effects are small at each individual lag but carry over a long distributional lag. As a joint time-frequency decomposition method, wavelets can effectively capture spectral peaks. We expect that wavelets are more powerful than kernels in small samples when ARCH effects are persistent or when ARCH effects have a long distributional lag. This is confirmed in a simulation study.

This paper studies the consistency of the Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator in a cointegrated vector autoregressive model with nonlinear time trends in cointegrating relations. The results are proved in a coordinate free framework that readily allows for general nonlinear parameter restrictions and makes it possible to show the consistency of reduced form parameter estimators without assuming identifiability of underlying structural parameters. Various consistency results for structural parameter estimators can then be obtained by imposing suitable identification conditions for the parameters of interest but not necessarily for nuisance parameters. Orders of consistency are also obtained because they are needed to develop a related asymptotic theory of statistical inference.

A new model of near integration is formulated in which the local to unity parameter is identifiable and consistently estimable with time series data. The properties of the model are investigated, new functional laws for near integrated time series are obtained that lead to mixed diffusion processes, and consistent estimators of the localizing parameter are constructed. The model provides a more complete interface between I(0) and I(1) models than the traditional local to unity model and leads to autoregressive coefficient estimates with rates of convergence that vary continuously between the O(√n) rate of stationary autoregression, the O(n) rate of unit root regression, and the power rate of explosive autoregression. Models with deterministic trends are also considered, least squares trend regression is shown to be efficient, and consistent estimates of the localizing parameter are obtained for this case also. Conventional unit root tests are shown to be consistent against local alternatives in the new class.

In this paper we study the properties of a pth-order Markovian local resampling procedure in approximating the distribution of nonparametric (kernel) estimators of the conditional expectation m(x;φ). Under certain regularity conditions, asymptotic validity of the proposed resampling scheme is established for a class of stochastic processes that is broader than the class of stationary Markov processes. Some simulations illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed resampling procedure.

We show that the usual rank condition is necessary and sufficient to identify a vector autoregressive process whether the variables are I(0) or I(d) for d = 1,2,.... We then use this rank condition to demonstrate the interdependence between the identification of short-run and long-run relations of cointegrated process. We find that both the short-run and long-run relations can be identified without the existence of prior information to identify either relation. But if there exists a set of prior restrictions to identify the short-run relation, then this same set of restrictions is sufficient to identify the corresponding long-run relation. On the other hand, it is in general not possible to identify the long-run relations without information on the complete structure. The relationship between the identification of a vector autoregressive process and a Cowles Commission dynamic simultaneous equations model is also clarified.

In this paper we propose an estimation procedure for a censored regression model where the latent regression function has a partially linear form. Based on a conditional quantile restriction, we estimate the model by a two stage procedure. The first stage nonparametrically estimates the conditional quantile function at in-sample and appropriate out-of-sample points, and the second stage involves a simple weighted least squares procedure. The proposed procedure is shown to have desirable asymptotic properties under regularity conditions that are standard in the literature. A small scale simulation study indicates that the estimator performs well in moderately sized samples.

This paper studies likelihood-based estimation and tests for autoregressive time series models with deterministic trends and general disturbance distributions. In particular, a joint estimation of the trend coefficients and the autoregressive parameter is considered. Asymptotic analysis on the M-estimators is provided. It is shown that the limiting distributions of these estimators involve nonlinear equation systems of Brownian motions even for the simple case of least squares regression. Unit root tests based on M-estimation are also considered, and extensions of the Neyman–Pearson test are studied. The finite sample performance of these estimators and testing procedures is examined by Monte Carlo experiments.

In this paper, I calculate the semiparametric information bound in two dynamic panel data logit models with individual specific effects. In such a model without any other regressors, it is well known that the conditional maximum likelihood estimator yields a √n-consistent estimator. In the case where the model includes strictly exogenous continuous regressors, Honoré and Kyriazidou (2000, Econometrica 68, 839–874) suggest a consistent estimator whose rate of convergence is slower than √n. Information bounds calculated in this paper suggest that the conditional maximum likelihood estimator is not efficient for models without any other regressor and that √n-consistent estimation is infeasible in more general models.

This paper continues the work of Saikkonen (2001, Econometric Theory 17, 296–326) and develops an asymptotic theory of statistical inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models with nonlinear time trends in cointegrating relations and general nonlinear parameter restrictions. Inference on parameters in cointegrating relations and short-run dynamics is studied separately. It is shown that Gaussian maximum likelihood estimators of parameters in cointegrating relations have mixed normal limiting distributions and that related Wald, Lagrange multiplier, and likelihood ratio tests for general nonlinear hypotheses have usual asymptotic chi-square distributions. These results are shown to hold even if parameters in the short-run dynamics are not identified. In that case suitable estimators of the information matrix have to be used to justify the application of Wald and Lagrange multiplier tests, whereas the likelihood ratio test is free of this difficulty. Similar results are also obtained when inference on parameters in the short-run dynamics is studied, although then Gaussian maximum likelihood estimators have usual normal limiting distributions. All results of the paper are proved without assuming existence of second partial derivatives of the likelihood function, and in some cases even differentiability with respect to nuisance parameters is not required.

This paper presents asymptotic results for the seasonal unit root test proposed by Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990, Journal of Econometrics 44, 215–238) in a near integration context. The findings are important in that they provide the asymptotic power functions of the Hylleberg et al. statistics when the characteristic roots of a seasonal process are local to unity. These conclusions extend the available asymptotic results for this test and serve as a framework for the potential development of more powerful test procedures.

Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, and Yoo (1990, Journal of Econometrics 44, 215–238), Beaulieu and Miron (1993, Journal of Econometrics 55, 305–328), Ghysels, Lee, and Noh (1994, Journal of Econometrics 62, 415–442), Smith and Taylor (1998, Journal of Econometrics 85, 269–288; 1999, Journal of Time Series Analysis 20, 453–476; 1999, Discussion paper 99-15 in economics, University of Birmingham), and Taylor (1998, Journal of Time Series Analysis 19, 349–368) have developed a method of testing for seasonal unit roots of zero and nonzero frequencies. They propose to use t- and F-statistics as criteria that are obtained from an auxiliary regression and find their limiting distributions as the number of observations becomes large. Their limiting distributions are expressed by means of Brownian motions. In this paper the moment generating functions associated with the limiting distributions are derived, and it is shown, as in Nabeya (2000, Econometric Theory 16, 200–230), that the limiting distribution of t is well approximated by a distribution given in Gram–Charlier series. The limiting distribution of F is also well approximated by another type of distribution.

Seasonal autoregressive models with a polynomial trend of higher degee are treated. In the unit root case, the limiting distribution of the normalized least squares estimator for the autoregressive parameter and that of the corresponding t-statistic are discussed as the length of the sample period tends to infinity. In the case where the polynomial trend has the second or third degree, the joint moment generating functions associated with these limiting distributions are derived, and some simulation results are reported. The asymptotic behavior of these limiting distributions is discussed when the polynomial degree or the number of seasons tends to infinity.

This paper investigates the consistency of the least squares estimators and derives their limiting distributions in an AR(1) model with a single structural break of unknown timing. Let β1 and β2 be the preshift and postshift AR parameter, respectively. Three cases are considered: (i) |β1| < 1 and |β2| < 1; (ii) |β1| < 1 and β2 = 1; and (iii) β1 = 1 and |β2| < 1. Cases (ii) and (iii) are of particular interest but are rarely discussed in the literature. Surprising results are that, in both cases, regardless of the location of the change-point estimate, the unit root can always be consistently estimated and the residual sum of squares divided by the sample size converges to a discontinuous function of the change point. In case (iii), [circumflex over beta]2 does not converge to β2 whenever the change-point estimate is lower than the true change point. Further, the limiting distribution of the break-point estimator for shrinking break is asymmetric for case (ii), whereas those for cases (i) and (iii) are symmetric. The appropriate shrinking rate is found to be different in all cases.