This article examines the sensitivity of Arab states to the political and ideological repercussions of the Palestine issue by focussing upon Egypt, Syria and Jordan. It suggests that the policies of Arab regimes towards the Palestine issue have been substantially shaped by historical patterns of state formation, and by the gradual consolidation of the Arab state system. This has served to “harden” the Arab territorial state, creating conditions under which Arab states are increasingly (if only partially) insulated from the transnational effects of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Monetary policy in Canada is formulated and implemented in a state-directed policy network dominated by the Bank of Canada. State-directed networks embody a tension between democratic accountability and legitimacy on the one side and maintaining support from the business community on the other. This article assesses this tension in Canadian monetary policy, focussing on the relationships between the Bank of Canada and other actors. As a central bank, the Bank of Canada possesses a unique constitutional status, being tied to the government through a directive power of the minister of finance. The Bank has also developed close working relationships with financial institutions for the implementation of monetary policy. In reviewing these relationships, the article identifies problems related to the Bank's political accountability and its ability to maintain legitimacy. The article then reviews some reforms that might address these problems: making the Bank more independent, subjecting it to closer control by the minister of finance and endowing it with a council-based internal governing system.

Since his rise to national importance in Canada, commentators have been trying to make sense of Preston Manning and his Reform party. For the most part, however, such commentary has refused to see his political thinking as new at all, but instead regards it as a throwback to previous examples of western-based political protest movements. Yet Manning should be regarded as a postmodern conservative. His politics are a response to the process of postmodernization that has characterized Canada in recent years. This article traces the rise of postmodern politics in the Western world; examines the specifically Canadian manifestation of this process; discusses the Reform party in the context of the cultural tension driving Canada's recent political debates; and concludes with a commentary on Manning's contribution to the fragmentation of Canada's traditional party system.

This article presents a theoretical analysis of the turnover and tenure of the members of the Canadian House of Commons from 1867 through 1968. Previous studies of such turnover and tenure have been quantitative, but not theoretical, yielding precise measurements but no pattern. A statistical résumé is no substitute for a mathematical model. Both may be accurate, parsimonious, and elegant; but a mathematical theory is distinguished by its generality and its explanatory or predictive power. With the present model, for example, the members’ median and mean continuous service can be logically derived from the mathematical theory; but the converse is not true, that is, the mathematical theory cannot be deduced from the median and/or mean continuous service. Specifically, the theory implies that the median continuous service is approximately 0.693 times the mean continuous service. Despite a plethora of quantitative studies of legislative turnover and tenure, this equation (so far as we know) has not previously been discovered.

The process to be modeled can be abstractly characterized as follows: Consider the members of the House of Commons after some particular (zero) general election. These legislators are called the original members, for expository convenience. With the occurrence of deaths, resignations, political defeats, etc., only some of the original members will continue to be members of the House of Commons after the next (first) general election. These survivors are called the re-elected members.

The paper uses the concept of path dependence to explain the challenges and complexities of institutional adaptation at the subnational level. The notion of path dependence is rooted in the well-established research tradition of historical institutionalism, one of the variants of neoinstitutionalism. The academic literature on the new institutionalism, however, has tended to focus on the national level of analysis. But there is a growing recognition of cities and regions as the main engines of socioeconomic change in the current age of seismic global economic perturbation. Their historic and current significance has thus made them arguably more organic units of governance than modern states or supranational regimes. The discussion focuses on the Niagara region in Canada to illustrate the institutional infrastructure of governance underpinning the economic landscape of city-regions and the challenges of reform that such local regions face in an age of unprecedented global socioeconomic change.

One reform considered for increasing voter turnout rates is to lower the voting age to 16 years old. Advocates of such a reform argue that young people would vote for the first time while they are still in school and living with their parents, which would provide a social context that is supportive of their electoral participation. However, opponents argue that 16- and 17-year-olds are not mature enough to take part in elections. Using data from a 2018 Quebec election survey that included a subsample of individuals aged 16 and 17, this study provides mixed evidence for both arguments.

Policing, a subject little studied by North American political scientists, has considerable relevance to newly democratizing countries, particularly those emerging from communist rule. Taking the case of Ukraine, the article examines what measures have been adopted to transform that country's Soviet pattern of authoritarian policing into something resembling that of established European liberal democracies. The balance sheet shows few signs of positive change. Instead, thanks to President Leonid Kuchma's leadership, the politicization and corruption of the police is now more blatant than ever. A new form of police state, not seen in the nineteenth or twentieth centuries, threatens the rule of law and democracy along with it.

Abstract. Theories that emphasize shared group identities to justify and delineate the rights of minority cultural groups are problematic because they obscure the differences that exist among group members. Disputes involving cultural communities are more clearly analyzed using a politics of intragroup difference that relies on three central precepts, namely, a relational conception of difference, attention to relations of power and concern for individual autonomy. A framework based on this foundation is better able to identify the significance of socially constructed differences and better equipped to adjudicate disputes where intragroup differences are raised.

Résumé. Les théories qui mettent l'accent sur les identités de groupe partagées pour définir et justifier les droits des groupes culturels minoritaires sont problématiques car elles obscurcissent les différences qui existent entre les membres du groupe. Les conflits impliquant des communautés culturelles s'analysent plus clairement à l'aide de méthodes qui présument l'existence de différences à l'intérieur d'un même groupe et sont fondées sur trois préceptes fondamentaux, notamment une conception relationnelle des différences, la prise en compte des relations de pouvoir et la protection de l'autonomie individuelle. Un modèle basé sur ce fondement est mieux apte à cerner l'importance des différences définies par la société et à arbitrer des conflits à l'occasion desquels des différences sont soulevées à l'intérieur d'un même groupe.

Abstract. The purpose of this article is to build a model that explains and forecasts the outcome of the second-round vote in the French presidential elections (with the hypothesis of a classic duel between left and right) in each department and at the national level. This model highlights the influence of the popularity of the Socialist party and a partisan variable in the explanation of the second-round vote for the candidate of the left in the French presidential elections. Its forecasts for the elections of the past (1981–1995 and 1981–2007, excluding 2002) are satisfactory and we make ex ante forecasts for the 2007 French presidential election.

Résumé. L'objet de cet article est de construire un modèle qui explique et prévoit le résultat du second tour de scrutin aux élections présidentielles françaises (en supposant le duel classique entre la gauche et la droite) dans chaque département et au niveau national. Ce modèle met en lumière l'influence de la popularité du Parti socialiste et d'une variable partisane dans l'explication du vote au second tour pour le candidat de la gauche aux élections présidentielles. Les prévisions ex post pour les élections passées (de 1981 à 1995 et de 1981 à 2007, en excluant 2002) sont satisfaisantes et on établit des prévisions ex ante pour l'élection présidentielle française de 2007.

Abstract. Is there a conflict between the principles of representation by population and the representation of communities of interest? In Canada, the legal requirement to design electoral districts based on pre-existing regions and communities of interest has produced large discrepancies in district populations. Several authors claim that this situation has a deleterious effect on the representational experiences of those citizens living in more populous districts. This paper examines whether the population of an electoral district affects the quality of political representation in that district. We first present survey data characterizing the relationship between constituency population and citizens' reported satisfaction with democracy and contact with politicians and parties. We then present audit experimental evidence from Canada demonstrating that the helpfulness of politicians towards citizens is not conditioned on constituency population. Our data indicate that constituency population has no clear impact on the quality of representational experiences in Canada, suggesting that it is possible to ensure the effective representation of communities of interest without harming the overall quality of Canadian democracy.

Résumé. Y a-t-il un conflit entre les principes de représentation par personne et de représentation de communautés d'intérêts? Au Canada, des écarts importants entre la population de certaines circonscriptions électorales résultent de l'obligation légale de les délimiter en tenant compte des régions et des communautés d'intérêts préexistantes. Plusieurs auteurs soutiennent que cette situation entraîne des effets néfastes sur la représentation vécue par les citoyens qui habitent les circonscriptions les plus populeuses. Dans cet article, nous vérifions si la taille de la population influence la qualité de la représentation politique dans une circonscription électorale. Nous présentons d'abord des données d'enquête sur la relation entre la taille de la population d'une circonscription et (i) la satisfaction des citoyens à l'égard de la démocratie, (ii) leurs contacts avec les politiciens et (iii) les communications qu'ils reçoivent des politiciens et des partis. Puis, nous présentons des données d'une expérience menée au Canada qui indiquent que la propension des politiciens à aider les citoyens n'est pas influencée par la taille de la population de leur circonscription. Nos résultats indiquent que la taille de la population d'une circonscription n'a pas d'effet clair sur la qualité de la représentation au Canada, suggérant ainsi qu'il est possible d'assurer la représentation efficace des communautés d'intérêts sans nécessairement nuire à la qualité globale de la démocratie canadienne.

American feminism at the point of Ronald Reagan's first election to the White House in 1980 appeared to merge the mobilizational strengths of social movement activism with the institutional professionalism that comes from interest-group experience. Unlike the British women's movement at the time of Margaret Thatcher's first majority in 1979, or organized feminism in Canada at the point of Brian Mulroney's first majority in 1984, the American movement appeared virtually unassailable. Yet observers who documented the defeat of the Equal Rights Amendment, the unravelling of reproductive choice provisions and sustained resistance to affirmative action policies during the Reagan/Bush years would tend to question this assumption. The author evaluates the clash between right-of-centre and feminist interests in the United States, providing one of the first empirical assessments of legislative and judicial decision making in the Reagan/Bush years in key policy areas identified by the American women's movement.

Abstract. Health care has arguably been the most important issue in Canadian politics in the past decade. This paper focuses on the extent to which the media affect public perceptions of “the way things are” in the Canadian health care system. Individual perceptions of the state of health care are analyzed as being a function of personal experience with the system, loyalty or pre-formed opinions and the information that the individual receives through the media. Results indicate that media use has a significant effect on the likelihood of negative perceptions regarding the state of health care.

Résumé. Le système de soins de santé représente sans doute le thème dominant de la dernière décennie sur la scène politique canadienne. Cet article examine l'influence exercée par les médias sur les perceptions du public concernant «la situation courante» du système de soins de santé canadien. L'analyse présente les perceptions individuelles sur l'état du système comme étant le reflet de l'expérience personnelle, d'une loyauté ou d'une opinion préétablie et de l'information transmise par les médias. Les résultats indiquent que les médias ont une incidence importante sur d'éventuelles perceptions négatives concernant l'état du système de soins de santé.

In the past several years, a Royal Commission has reported on the automotive industry and a number of changes have been made in tariffs on automobiles and parts. Although the changes of late 1962 and late 1963 differed in detail from the recommendations of Dean Bladen in his Royal Commission report, they introduced in an alternative form the major innovation recommended by the report, namely, export incentives. By encouraging exports, and particularly exports of parts, the government hoped to stimulate Canadian employment, improve the current account balance, and contribute to the efficiency of the Canadian industry by making possible longer production runs.

Issues of great complexity were introduced by both the Bladen recommendations and the recent changes. Evaluation of their probable effects is made doubly difficult because of the previously existing system of import duties compounded with Canadian content requirements. Nevertheless, it is important that a detailed study be made of recent innovations, particularly as the three-year limit on the changes of late 1963 has made it clear that there will be a major review of policy in the near future. American objections to the innovations, and the possibility of retaliation, have further increased the importance of an evaluation.

This paper is concerned with the “General Possibility Theorem” of Dr. K. J. Arrow. Since the theorem is certainly elegant and probably important, it is proper as well as convenient to refer to it from this point on as Arrow's theorem. The theorem deals with the problem of discovering a rule by which social preferences can be constructed from individual preferences. Such a rule, or social welfare function, gives a social ordering of alternatives of any kind for every possible arrangement of the corresponding individual orderings. Arrow's theorem declares that no social welfare function exists that satisfies those conditions that most of us would consider essential to a satisfactory rule. The outcome is something of a shock to preconceptions.

In what follows two aspects of Arrow's theorem are considered. In the early part of the paper the theorem as such is examined. A brief and informal statement of Arrow's argument is followed by a formal statement of the conditions on which the argument depends. A proof of the theorem is offered that seems to be rather more naturally constructed than the original. A set of conditions is proposed (derived from Arrow's proof) that is weaker than the original set, that seems to be at least as plausible, and that leads to the same conclusion by a short and direct route. In the later part of the paper, methods of circumventing the theorem (there seems to be no way of removing it) are explored.

In 1837, the Canadian economy was subjected both to the stresses inherent in its own unstable organization and to the strains of a temporary financial and commercial panic. The last crucial stages of economic change and social conflict within the Canadas coincided unhappily with a general financial collapse in the English-speaking world; and the coincidence of these two crises produced a violent exaggeration of all the weaknesses to which the Canadas had been subject. From the very beginning the trades of the St. Lawrence had suffered from persistent fluctuations and shared a common instability; but to these chronic infirmities were now added all the special difficulties of the shift from the trades in fur and timber to the production of wheat and flour. The discord between trade and agriculture, the disagreement between the organization of the commercial system and the demands of the rural communities, had reached the last stages of their development. While the old trading system of the St. Lawrence was expressed politically in the commercial state, the agricultural interest had become vociferously articulate in the reform parties of both provinces. And these economic contradictions and social conflicts were evidently nearing their climax at the very moment when the financial panic broke in England and the United States.

Political parties have come to be accepted as at least a partial solution to the problem posed for the political system by the gap between society on the one hand and the state, the locus of decision-making authority, on the other. Generally, such questions as the social basis of party affiliation and the extent of participation of party supporters have been approached, at least by the major and best known studies of popular political participation in the United States, from the electoral side: a sample survey of a single community or a national electorate is made while an election campaign is in progress. Through such surveys, a substantial amount of information has been accumulated. In Canada few surveys have been conducted, and apart from the efforts of the Gallup poll no national sampling of the political community has been attempted for public consumption.

Less than justice has been done to Sir William Temple as a political scientist. It is true that his reputation now stands higher than it did in the nineteenth century when Courtenay, his biographer, observed, “Neither in science nor in politics, were his opinions founded upon an accurate combination of facts and principles,” and added, “Of Political Economy Temple knew nothing” and when Macaulay dismissed the essay on government as “exceedingly childish.” Three modern studies have done much to revise this unflattering estimate, but some aspects of Temple's political thought have remained unconsidered or confused. Professor Herriott in his analysis of Temple's ideas on government has pointed out the novelty of those ideas but has given little attention to the significance of Temple's approach and method. Dr. Marburg's excellent book, though it does not deal primarily with Temple's political ideas, has made a valuable contribution towards their understanding. But her views on Temple's attitude to science and his use of its method are open to question. Professor Woodbridge, in his recent very full study of Temple, praises “the astonishing originality” of the essay On the Original and Nature of Government, and remarks as its great merit that its argument is based “upon historical probability, observation and experience,” but he does not emphasize the inductive aspect of Temple's work nor discuss the relation of his political thought to the scientific movement. Apart from Professor G. N. Clark's explicit but passing references to Temple's significance as one of the first of the inductive political thinkers, the extent to which Temple participated in the prevailing scientific climate of opinion and was influenced by it has been generally overlooked or greatly underestimated.

The significance of navigation in the economic development of a region penetrated by the St. Lawrence to the south and by Hudson Bay to the north has been evident in concentration on production of raw materials for consumption in the highly industrialized area of Europe, and in problems which have arisen with intense specialization, such as unused capacity in terms of vessel space as a result of inability to secure a balanced two-way cargo. The green fishery as conducted from French ports on the banks and along the coast required heavy outbound cargoes of salt to balance return cargoes of fish, but the dry fishery, which became important with the development of Spanish trade at the beginning of the seventeenth century, required smaller quantities of salt and equipment on the outgoing voyage and made necessary the carrying of ballast. The English dry fishery in Newfoundland involved a further lack of balance in that crews necessary to carry on the industry were larger than those necessary to man the vessels, and, because of the seasonal fluctuations and agricultural limitations of that area, men were carried back at the end of the season. Sale of fish in the markets of Spain and the Mediterranean necessitated the dispatch of vessels to England with the men necessary to carry on the fishery, and additional larger vessels (sack ships) with cargoes of fish to market. The addition of sack ships lowered the cost of provisions and facilitated the beginnings of a settlement in which men remained over the winter. Consequently, competition between sack ships and fishing ships for cargoes of fish and for profitable return cargoes of salt, tropical products, and specie from Spain and the Mediterranean to England, contributed to the long severe struggle which dominated the history of Newfoundland and placed severe restrictions on the introduction of political institutions. New England, with a winter fishery and a favourable area for the development of agriculture, lumbering, and shipbuilding, offered possibilities of all-year-round operation. Settlers rather than ballast, therefore, were brought to New England. Expansion of settlement contributed to more effective exploitation of the fishery, shipbuilding, and trade and to the decline of control of fishing ships from England. Numerous small New England vessels extended the fishery to the banks and the shores of Nova Scotia, participated in the coastal trade to Newfoundland in spring and summer, and carried products to the West Indies to exchange for sugar and molasses in winter when these products came on the market and there was freedom from hurricanes. Relative absence of unused capacity in New England shipping meant low costs and contributed to rapid economic development which facilitated control over Nova Scotia after the expulsion of the French in the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713. The expansion of New England involved a continued drain of labour from Newfoundland and weakened the position of settlement in that area.

This paper is an attempt to describe developments in the European hatting industry as a background to the evolution of the North American beaver trade. Most studies of the fur trade trace the movement of the furs no further than the fur market; interest is centred on production and marketing with insufficient attention directed to the ultimate sources of the demand. Vague references to style changes usually suffice as explanations of long-run demand movements. There were, however, certain technological discoveries and evolutions in hat-making which underlie both the style changes and the long-run demand fluctuations. My intent is to examine these developments and to relate them to the Canadian fur trade.

The cornerstone of this essay is L'Art de faire des chapeaux, by M. I'Abbé Nollet, published at Paris in 1765. This mid-eighteenth century work examines the sources of raw materials, the methods of production, and the history of the French hatting industry. In order to understand the industrial background against which this book was written and to explain several of the references Nollet makes, it is necessary to begin with a history of the felt hat industry. In sketching this history I have drawn extensively on other sources. Some of the hypotheses advanced in Section I may be open to question; the evidence upon which they are based is fragmentary, and I have had to content myself with material in secondary sources. In later parts of the paper I shall compare L'Art de faire des chapeaux with the article on hatting in Diderot's Encyclopedia published in 1753.

Abstract. Although exit polling has not been used to study Canadian elections before, such polls have methodological features that make them a potentially useful complement to data collected through more conventional designs. This paper reports on an experiment with exit polling in one constituency in the 2003 Ontario provincial election. Using student volunteers, a research team at Wilfrid Laurier University conducted an exit poll in the bellwether constituency of Kitchener Centre to assess the feasibility of mounting this kind of study on a broader scale. The experiment was successful in a number of respects. It produced a sample of 653 voters that broadly reflected the partisan character of the constituency, and which can hence be used to shed light on patterns of vote-switching and voter motivations in that constituency. It also yielded insights about best practices in mounting an exit poll in the Ontario context, as well as about the potential for using wireless communication devices to transmit respondent data from the field. The researchers conclude that exit polling on a limited basis (selected constituencies) is feasible, but the costs and logistics associated with this methodology make a province-wide or country-wide study unsupportable at present.

Résumé. Bien que les sondages “sortie des urnes” n'aient pas été utilisés jusqu'ici dans l'étude des élections au Canada, de tels sondages possèdent certaines caractéristiques qui en font un complément potentiellement très utile des méthodes plus traditionnelles de cueillette des données. Cet article rend compte d'un sondage “sortie des urnes” expérimental effectué dans une circonscription lors de l'élection provinciale de 2003 en Ontario. Utilisant des bénévoles étudiants, une équipe de recherche de l'Université Wilfrid Laurier a conduit un sondage “sortie des urnes” à Kitchener Centre, une circonscription indicatrice de tendance, afin de déterminer la faisabilité de ce type d'étude au niveau fédéral. L'expérience a réussi à plusieurs égards. Elle a fourni un échantillon de 653 électeurs qui reflétaient en gros le caractère partisan de la circonscription, ce qui a rendu possible l'étude des motivations des électeurs et des revirements de vote dans la région. L'expérience a aussi fourni des renseignements sur les pratiques exemplaires concernant l'utilisation des sondages “sortie des urnes” au niveau provincial, ainsi que sur la possibilité d'employer des techniques de communication sans fil pour transmettre les données recueillies des répondants. Les chercheurs ont conclu que les sondages “sortie des urnes” sont réalisables dans un cadre restreint, dans certaines circonscriptions sélectionnées, mais que les coûts et la logistique nécessités par cette méthodologie la rendent actuellement impraticable pour une étude à l'échelle provinciale ou nationale.